For the first time since taking control of the Western Cape 15 years ago, the DA faces a significant threat to its majority. The dynamics echo the national challenge faced by the ANC. While the ANC needs to lose eight percentage points to lose its majority nationally, the DA only needs to lose six percentage points to jeopardise its hold on the province.

The Western Cape has always presented a unique political landscape compared to national trends. Unlike other provinces where the ANC has traditionally dominated, the Western Cape saw no party achieving an outright majority until 2009 when the DA secured 51.46% of the vote. The party increased its support to 59.38% in 2014, its best result to date, but saw a decline to 55.45% in 2019.

The decline was attributed to DA voters moving to the Freedom Front Plus after losing trust in then-leader Mmusi Maimane, while others switched to the newly formed Good Party, the EFF and Al Jama-ah. There was also a slight drop in voter turnout in the province, as was the case in the rest of the country. 

In the 2021 local government elections, the DA’s overall support dropped to 54.26%, down from 63.33% in 2016. Although local government election results do not perfectly predict general election outcomes, they do reflect electoral trends, suggesting potential challenges for the DA in the upcoming elections.

An Ipsos poll from October 2023 put the DA’s support in the upcoming elections at only 44% and suggested there was a possibility of a coalition government in the province.

Another poll by the Social Research Foundation in March 2024 put the DA at 53%, but the tentative conclusion found: “The data suggests that the DA is holding its majority on the national ballot paper, even as its majority on the provincial ballot paper comes under pressure and is now within the margin of error. What that means is that it is plausible for the election to deliver a coalition government in the Western Cape.”

Read more in Daily Maverick: 2024 elections

While the DA boasts about clean and corruption-free governance, this has not stopped parties from challenging them on the state of impoverished areas, the persistence of apartheid spatial planning, and the party’s foreign policies. These issues continue to fuel debates and could have an impact on voter sentiment as South Africans prepare to go to the polls on 29 May.

Western Cape voters

According to Electoral Commission of South Africa registration statistics, 3,310,798 people have registered to vote in the Western Cape, with Cape Town accounting for the majority, just more than 2 million, followed by Drakenstein with 137,000 voters and then George and Stellenbosch with just more than 100,000 registered voters each. 

Khayelitsha and Mitchells Plain have the biggest voting districts. These are areas that feel neglected by the provincial government and are targeted by opposition parties in the upcoming elections. 

The ANC stands to benefit from its support of coloured Muslims who are unhappy with the DA’s stance on the Israel-Palestine war but are not happy with the ANC’s governance nationally. 

The ANC has been working to improve its performance in the province, and there have been efforts to address internal party issues and improve voter engagement.

Parties like Patricia de Lille’s Good Party, Al Jama-ah, Rise Mzansi, the National Coloured Congress, Marius Fansman’s People’s Movement for Change, which has former Cape Town mayor Dan Plato on its books, stand to benefit from the voters who are unhappy with both the ANC and DA. 

New challengers 

Dr Sithembile Mbete, a lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences at the University of Pretoria, said the DA had also struggled in recent by-elections, which saw Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance (PA) taking wards from both the ANC and DA. 

“We are so used to framing all of our politics as ANC vs the DA … but we saw already in 2019 the kind of impact new parties that are appealing to the coloured vote can have.” 

Mbete said voter turnout would play an important role. As was seen in the 2016 municipal elections, a high voter turnout produced a blow for the incumbent ANC in Gauteng metros. With the presence of new parties such as Rise Mzansi and the PA gaining momentum, this could spell disaster for the DA. 

Patriotic Alliance leader Gayton McKenzie at the party’s Victory Rally held at Athlone Stadium in Cape Town on 10 May 2024. (Photo: Gallo Images / Brenton Geach)

“The DA will be challenged or constrained in the turnout,” she said.

“If the people who stayed away in 2019 but are on the voters’ roll decide to show up this year, I think those people are going to show up not to vote for the DA but rather the new alternatives. That is where parties like PA and Rise Mzansi could really benefit.

“The second challenge for the DA is the issue of Palestine. The ANC, Al Jama-ah, and possibly Good Party could benefit from that. To some degree Rise Mzansi.” 

Mbete also argued that the people who are not happy with service delivery especially in Cape Town, usually do not vote, but whoever inspires them to vote this time around will make a big dent in the DA’s hold on the Western Cape. 

“That is where the threat of a party like Rise Mzansi comes in and that is why the DA calls them mercenaries. I think the DA will drop some votes, but it will not be [so] significant that the DA won’t be able to govern the Western Cape.”

Professor Amanda Gouws from the Department of Political Science at Stellenbosch University said the ANC, Al Jama-ah and other smaller parties stood to benefit from these elections.

“The DA will lose support and some of the smaller parties will gain, such as Rise Mzansi and the Patriotic Alliance. Gayton McKenzie is making inroads. So it is possible that the DA will go below 50%. Then they will draw on the support of the Multi-Party Charter.”

DA putting up a fight

DA provincial leader Tertuis Simmers said the party was on course to amass sufficient votes to get an outright majority in the upcoming elections and surpass the 2019 results by achieving a 60% electoral victory. 

“What our figures are telling us is that something massive is going to happen in the Western Cape,” he told Daily Maverick.

“Our party will reap the harvest in many areas where the DA difference was felt and seen. Where we are currently in opposition, like the Central Karoo, we have seen the need of the DA and people want that clean governance.” 

Simmers said that in the last 18 months of campaigning the DA had surpassed its own expectations by registering 20,000 more people. Of the threat presented by parties such as the PA, Simmers said the PA had been busing people around to make it look like they had a lot of support and using food parcels to attract more voters. 

“The communities vote for them and after by-elections the PA leaders disappear,” he said.

“If you look at places like Knysna where the PA is in a coalition with the ANC and EFF, service delivery has declined. They are destroying Knysana, Theewaterskloof, and more and more people are seeing beyond the rhetoric. The DA is the party to vote for if people want service delivery.” 

ANC stronger

The ANC believes that it is going to perform much better than it has done in the previous two elections in the Western Cape owing to its level of canvassing. In 2019, the party won 28.63% of the provincial vote.

“I know there’s been a bit of a talk about canvassing targets; we have set our targets very high,” ANC Western Cape spokesperson Khalid Sayed said. 

“We’ve been picking up a lot of positive sentiment towards the ANC compared to before. Also, the 15 years of DA failure has begun to lead many people to see us as an alternative government in the province.” 

The party could get a boost in support owing to its pro-Palestine stance and the government’s success in the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which could draw more Muslim voters to the party. 

On Friday, 24 May 2024, the ICJ ordered Israel to immediately halt its military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, referring to the humanitarian situation in Rafah as “disastrous”.

“Many people who haven’t voted at all want to participate in the election because of the ANC’s support of Palestine. People have seen that the ANC has taken practical action to support the Palestine people.” 

EFF poaches

The EFF shocked many in December last year when it won its first ward in the Western Cape. This made the EFF the fourth-largest party in the Saldanha Bay Council. The party won 4% in the province in 2019.

Read more in Daily Maverick: EFF beats ANC for major upset in Saldanha Bay, but ruling party wins big in KZN, North West

The EFF has struggled to attract support in traditionally coloured areas and to try change this it poached the former leader of the Plaaslike Besorgde Inwoners (PBI), Virgill Gericke. 

Gericke was the founder of the PBI, which took part in municipal elections for the first time in 2011. He was a councillor in the George Municipality before he resigned to join the EFF.

The PBI holds eight council seats across the province: five in the George Municipal Council, two in the Garden Route District Municipality and one in the Knysna Council.

Knysna’s deputy mayor is from the PBI, despite the party having only one seat in the council.

Daily Maverick has been reliably informed that PBI will take directives from the EFF Western Cape. The party has also been flirting with the taxi industry, and party leader Julius Malema met with its leaders this month when he visited the Western Cape. 

Good is good

Good party MP Brett Herron said the party had done more campaigning than in the previous elections and it was more prepared. In 2019, it obtained 3% of the provincial vote, securing one seat in the legislature.

In 2023, the party dismissed senior leader Shaun August, who has since returned to the DA, and this year it dismissed former Springboks coach Peter de Villiers following allegations of sexual misconduct. 

“The response around how quickly we acted on allegations of sexual harassment internally was well received by many people, who observed many political parties that allow alleged sexual predators to continue to operate in their structures.” 

The party is targeting growth in the West Coast, Overberg and the Winelands.

Good’s leader, Patricia de Lille, has been serving in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Cabinet and Herron argues that this has not affected the party.

“De Lille serves the people of South Africa, not the ANC. We have no agreement with the ANC and we regard them as a competitor in the elections.”

Rise to rise 

Rise Mzansi Western Cape convener Axolile Notywala is confident that the party will win a few seats in the Western Cape legislature as communities had given them a good reception.

Notywala is known by most communities in Cape Town for his role in fighting for service delivery while he was with the Social Justice Coalition.

“We have targeted a diverse range of people; hence we are getting attacks from all political parties,” he said.

“We are building a party that can reach all races and try to break the divide in terms of class dynamics. We are aiming for a minimum of two seats in the province.” 

ACDP looks to coalition

The African Christian Democratic Party’s (ACDP) Western Cape leader, Ferlon Christians, said that while the party was not happy with the DA’s governance of the province, it would vote with the DA to run the province again if the chance were to present itself.

The ACDP took 2.6% of the vote in Western Cape 2019.

“We are working hard to get the DA under 50% so that they can need us to govern. With our policies we can improve this province and our analysis shows that the DA will govern with our support,” he said.  DM

Additional reporting by Suné Payne.

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Using the Miyawaki afforestation technique for cultivating fast-growing groves of native plants, with the dense, mixed planting intended to simulate the layers of a natural forest, the non-profit organisation Mzanzi Organics together with local primary schools has planted 800 indigenous trees and shrubs in 200 sq m of Langa, establishing the area’s first forest.

Planting began in January and the Langalibalele Forest was completed in March — one of five newly planted SUGi pocket forests in Cape Town. 

Aghmad Gamieldien, the founder of Mzanzi Organics and a SUGi forest-maker, began planting these forests in vulnerable and densely populated areas after completing a fellowship in 2021 on the Miyawaki forest method with SUGi Pocket Forests — a non-profit organisation fostering biodiversity-building, ecosystem restoration and reestablishing nature connections in communities. 

SUGi works with forest-makers like Gamieldien to deliver these pocket forests across Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Europe and South America using the Miyawaki method, planting ultra-dense, biodiverse forests of native and indigenous species.

Key species in the Cape Town forests are assegai, yellowwood, milkwood, red alder and keurboom.

The Langalibalele Forest at Siyabulela Primary School in Langa. ((Photo: Christian Helgi for Mzanzi Organics)

The Khoi First Nations Forest is located at the Oude Molen Eco-Village in Pinelands. This forest is one of the bigger forests with 600 trees in 200 square metres, and is on its way to being completely self-sustainable. (Photo: Christian Helgi for Mzanzi Organics)

Langalibalele Forest

The field where the Langalibalele Forest was planted was a dump site before the forest was established. “When we were cleaning using the machines, there were heaps of mountains from years and years of illegal dumping,” Gamieldien said. 

It’s named the Langalibalele Forest in honour of the Hlubi king Langalibalele, who was imprisoned on Robben Island for leading a rebellion against the British and Dutch colonial authorities of the Natal Government in the late 1870s. Langalibalele directly translates to “The blazing sun”. 

“When he left Robben Island he was sent to this land, now known as Langa. So this is in his honour and remembrance, and to foster positive African history which is left out of our history books,” Gamieldien said.

Ahmed Gamieldien has been planting forests in vulnerable areas around Cape Town since 2021 with his organisation Mzansi Organics. Here Gamieldien is pictured in the Langalibalele Forest at Siyabulela Primary School in Langa. (Photo: Christian Helgi for Mzanzi Organics)

The Khoi First Nations Forest is located at the Oude Molen Eco-Village in Pinelands. This forest is one of the bigger forests with 600 trees in 200 square metres, and is on its way to being completely self-sustainable. (Photo: Christian Helgi for Mzanzi Organics)

The Langalibalele Forest at Siyabulela Primary School in Langa. ((Photo: Christian Helgi for Mzanzi Organics)

The forest has been used for community engagements, as an outdoor classroom for a school and it’s a place where musicians make music with the learners.

When Daily Maverick visited the Langalibalele Forest, learners from Siyabulela Primary School were singing along with musician Sibusile Xaba while he played his guitar.

Sithembele Khamsholo, the principal of Siyabulela Primary School, said: “We appreciated the idea of having a forest here because it will help the kids with learning because it’s where they can attend their Natural Science classes and see the different species and trees without having to spend money on going to see the fynbos at Kirstenbosch and Robben Island. Now they have their own spaces.

“We did have a problem with the community in the beginning because there were children that used to play soccer near where the forest was planted. When the forest was planted they were stealing some of the sprinklers but we managed to speak to them and now they understand the benefit of the forest to the school and to the community,” Khamsholo said.

@mzanziorganics The Langalibalele Forest at Siyabulela Primary School in Langa is made up of 800 indigenous trees and shrubs. We use the Miyawaki method of afforestation , meaning we plant dense forests using only native species. For each square meter we planted 4 trees. #generationrestoration #treeplanting #tiktokcapetown #biodiversity #mzanziorganics ♬ Gymnopédie No.1 / Erik Satie(884659) – BPProject

“The forest will help to bring fresh air and other health benefits,” he said.

Khamsholo was hopeful that the forest would also attract tourists to Langa.

Langa resident Siphenathi Hesewu has worked at Siyabulela Primary School as a caretaker since 2015 and one of his duties is to take care of the forest.

“The trees are growing a lot… Last year, Aghmad and his colleagues came to us with the project… The project started in January this year, when we started ploughing and then we finished planting in March… Now there are 800 trees… The community even came in after school to plant and sit with the children,” Hesewu said. 

Amanda Sipika, a Grade 6 teacher at the school, said: “During the classes for Natural Sciences, they use the forest as they get taught about the different types of plants, the importance of plants, planting and photosynthesis. For mathematics classes we also go there to explore and learn, we count petals, we count the trees and they ask more questions.

“Over time, learners can become bored staying in classrooms, so it helps when we go outside with our lessons and books… Those learners who don’t behave in class, but enjoy their time outside because there they become themselves and enriched because they learn different skills. They relate very well with the outside world,” Sipika said. 

“This is my first time seeing this green space in Langa. The open fields are being dumped. At the back of our field, we noticed that people drop dirt around our school but now there are changes, they aren’t dumping there any more. It’s a clean site and useful for everyone.”  

The Cape Flats forest was planted in partnership with the Seed Abundance community at the t Rocklands Primary in Mitchells Plain. This forest comprises 1200 indigenous trees and shrubs in 300 square metres with 1200 indigenous trees. (Photo: Christian Helgi for Mzanzi Organics)

Learners at Siyabulela Primary School singing along with musician Sibusile Xaba at the Langalibalele Forest in Langa. (Photo: Kristin Engel)

Urban pocket forests around Cape Town.

The first urban pocket forest in Cape Town was the pilot forest in Philippi, on the KT Grows organic farm, which is now two years and five months old. The second forest is one of the bigger ones, the Khoi First Nations Forest, at the Oude Molen Eco Village in Pinelands. It comprises 600 trees on 200 sq m and is on its way to being self-sustainable. 

“After two years, the forest takes care of itself. We only mulch and water in the first two years and do weeding. After this, the forest takes care of itself just like a natural forest. No one is giving it water and no one is mulching it. So after two years … the forests are self-sustainable,” Gamieldien said.

After the Khoi First Nations Forest, the Cape Flats forest was planted in partnership with the Seed Abundance community at Rocklands Primary in Mitchells Plain. It comprises 1,200 indigenous trees and shrubs in 300 sq m and an outdoor classroom teaching space. 

Then the Schotche Kloof Forest was planted at Schotche Kloof Primary School in Bo-Kaap. This is one of the smaller forests, with 100 trees in 25 sq m.

“The school has become so activated around the forest, they take such pride in upkeeping and looking after the forest, and they’ve also been involved, from the digging, to the planting, to the maintenance,’ Gamieldien said.

“That’s a very important element for us, activating communities, getting them involved and letting them take ownership of the forest because we take a step back after planting. We do check in with the communities, but it’s really theirs. It’s their forest, we are here for support. 

The challenge of finding land 

“It’s been hard to access government land in Cape Town. So partnering with schools is very important because we have faced that challenge trying to access a small piece of land. One department tells you [to contact] the next department, to the next department, and then six months later we’re in the same boat… That’s why we work with school communities, that has been much more efficient for us.” 

The project hinges on support from communities and their ongoing ownership of and involvement in the forests, but getting their buy-in has been difficult at times. 

“In Mitchells Plain, we left about 15 [water] drums, 20-litre drums, all around the forest in case of emergency or drought, so that water was on hand. After a few weeks, all those drums were gone from the property,

“So sometimes we had problems with theft and stealing. But because we have a bigger project in mind, we do not let things like that hold us back. Of course, it’s demotivating for a while,” Gamieldien said.

Another challenge, in the beginning, was transferring the maintenance of such big projects to a school and then taking a step back. 

“What happens is the maintenance of the watering, weeding, and mulching can be a bit overwhelming. It feels like we are burdening the school, they are struggling to maintain it because it’s so big and they don’t have time or capacity,” Gamieldien said.

The team set up sprinkler systems that made it easier to water the forests.

The agreement with the schools once they were onboard and the financial support was secured, was that the trees could not be cut down for a minimum of 20 years.

The pocket forests have environmental, social and economic benefits. 

They can help improve immunity via positive microbial interactions; filter airborne pollutants through their dense canopies; improve the physical and mental wellbeing of communities; help cool temperatures; mitigate flooding by absorbing stormwater; capture CO₂ and emit oxygen; and create a haven for bees and pollinators.

The Miyawaki forest planting method 

Gamieldien explained that the method was developed in Japan by the botanist and ecologist Akira Miyawaki in the 1970s.

Miyawaki noticed after World War 2 how rapidly industrialisation was taking place in Japan and developed the method to restore forests and habitats for wildlife that were disappearing at a rapid rate. 

Before making the pocket forests, Gamieldien spent time in Cape Town’s Skeleton Gorge, Nursery Ravine, Cecilia Forest, Echo Valley and Spes Bona Valley. 

“They are the untouched forests in Cape Town. I went to study and observe these forests to see what is growing and noting down all the species. Then with that species list, I consulted books, paintings, and literature to see what the indigenous species are.

“This is because what we’re trying to do with the Miyawaki method is replicate what is found in natural space. With those natural species, we plant three to five trees and shrubs per square metre. That’s what makes this methodology so unconventional. 

“Usually, people are taught to plant a metre or a few metres apart but in the natural forest, this is how they are found. Forests are dense and lush, you can’t usually walk through them. So we’re trying to mimic that to the best of our ability.” 

Gamieldien said SUGi pocket forests were 30 times denser and 100 times more biodiverse than monoculture plantations, and the trees grew 10 times faster.  

Read more in Daily Maverick: Healthy food is hard to come by in Cape Town’s poorer areas: how community gardens can fix that

Because it grew so fast, Gamieldien said, after five years, the forest would look like it had always been there and after 10 years would look like an ancient forest. 

“The biodiversity is coming back in all the areas that we planted because these trees attract very specific bees, butterflies and birds, not just to come and visit the forest but also to make a habitat, to lay eggs, to nurture the young, to visit frequently for food and so on,” Gamieldien said.

“We cannot ignore our history, we cannot ignore the apartheid legacy of how our cities were planned and we cannot ignore the fact that our leafy suburbs in Cape Town are only leafy suburbs because someone planted trees there 100 years ago.

“So these trees were not planted in the Cape Flats in our townships. This project that we’re doing is holistically looking at how we transform our townships into leafy suburbs. How do we create green spaces that are lacking?” DM

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Cape Town’s municipality has blacklisted several of her businesses, while the national government has blocked one.

Her ties to the two salons she was running have also been severed.

And some discrepancies were picked up in terms of her links to two other ventures.

On top of all that, Nicole Johnson has been called a liar – and she has again failed in an attempt to be released from custody on bail.

‘Doesn’t hesitate to lie’

“A holistic analysis of the evidence portrays Johnson as a person who does what she needs to even if this means being deceptive and taking the law into her own hands,” a Western Cape High Court judgment against her, handed down on 13 May 2024, says.

“She does not hesitate to lie and give false evidence, if she thinks it will benefit her. 

“Such a person does not respect the legal system and would not hesitate to undermine the criminal justice system, including the bail system.”

Please embed/Scribd the judgment here for online

Johnson is the wife of alleged 28s and The Firm gang boss Ralph Stanfield.

They have been behind bars since they were arrested in their home in the elite Cape Town suburb of Constantia in September 2023.

They face charges relating to a vehicle theft, and in Stanfield’s case, of attempted murder.

That matter, which involves three other accused, is expected to resume in the Cape Town Magistrates’ Court next month.

Failed bail attempts

Johnson, meanwhile, has faced several problems relating to her work while in custody.

She was initially denied bail in October 2023 and subsequently launched another application based on “new facts”.

That second application was turned down in January.

Johnson appealed both those decisions and that culminated in this month’s high court judgment which found she should not be released from custody.

The judgment, together with matters happening parallel to court processes, hint at the work drama Johnson faces.

It also shows how she previously considered applying for business residency in Dubai.

Dubai work plans

“She did not disclose this information, even though she deemed it appropriate to disclose that she had years ago considered relocating to Gauteng,” the judgment said.

“Even though nothing came from this, she had been in contact with a person who would have assisted with the residency applications as recently as 27 March 2023.  

“This contact could have provided her with the means of applying for residency in Dubai, if needed.”

The judgment said there was therefore “a likelihood that [Johnson] could attempt to evade her trial” if she was released on bail.

‘I don’t trust anyone’

It said that in an affidavit relating to her first bail application, Johnson had stated: “I am the senior person in all my businesses and solely responsible for the day-to-day running of the businesses.  

“I do not trust anyone to run the businesses and have not as a result empowered anyone to be able to run the businesses. Without me the businesses will fail.”

It previously emerged during proceedings in the magistrates’ court that Johnson ran two beauty stores, named Sorbet. One was in the Cape Town suburb of Green Point and the other in the city’s Canal Walk shopping mall.

According to the high court judgment from earlier this month, Johnson, during the first bail application, had testified that her “Sorbet franchise stores are going down and that the manager who was appointed was stealing”.

Sorbet severs ties

“Johnson was also informed that Sorbet Man (Pty) Ltd was cancelling the franchise agreements with her in respect of her two stores,” the judgment said.

The agreement cancellations were because she had breached a clause in that she had been absent – presumably because she was in custody – from the business for longer than 30 days.

Johnson has faced several other business-related problems while in custody.

Daily Maverick previously reported that in December 2023 the City of Cape Town confirmed it had blacklisted seven companies linked to her “based on the risk they pose to the city’s reputation”.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Risky business — City of Cape Town blacklists companies linked to 28s gang case accused Nicole Johnson

Ahead of that, Johnson’s company, Glomix House Brokers, had been involved in housing projects in Cape Town, worth millions of rands, for more than a decade.

National blacklisting

Johnson was saddled with even more business problems earlier this year.

Treasury blacklisted Glomix for a decade from 28 March, meaning the company would not be able to do work with the national government for that period.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Glomix ban — Treasury blacklists 28s gang case accused Nicole Johnson’s company for 10 years

The high court judgment handed down this month also detailed how other business operations have counted against Johnson.

It previously emerged during court proceedings that, according to the case’s investigating officer, Lieutenant-Colonel Christiaan van Renen, Johnson and Stanfield co-owned the MBT garage in the Cape Town suburb of Bishop Lavis.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Petrol price proves ‘lies’ told in the case involving alleged gangster Ralph Stanfield and wife Nicole Johnson

In an affidavit of her own, Johnson had asserted: “I am the only person in the business that can change the price of fuel at the fuel pumps.”

However, according to the high court judgment: “This statement was proven to be false by the evidence presented by the State showing that the fuel price had indeed been changed at the fuel pumps after Johnson was arrested and detained.”

Ayepyep issues

The high court judgment also said Johnson had previously not played open cards about her income from the Ayepyep Lifestyle Lounge, a venue in Cape Town’s city centre where she was the general manager, where she earned about R70,000 per month.

“Johnson’s evidence on this aspect was very confusing, intentionally so, in my view to muddy the waters,” the high court judgment said.

Daily Maverick reported extensively on previous controversies surrounding Ayepyep Cape Town.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Fear, violence and extortion in Cape Town — luxury venue Ayepyep closes amid claims of gangsterism and threats

A former owner of the venue, Kagiso Setsetse, made accusations in 2023 that Stanfield and Johnson were trying to dominate it.

Stanfield had made counteraccusations.

In September 2023, just days before Stanfield and Johnson were arrested in the case in which she failed to get bail, it emerged that a settlement had been reached with Setsetse over Ayepyep Cape Town.

Mother and brother arrested

The settlement saw Setsetse selling his shares and Johnson’s mother Barbara owning 50% of the business. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: Nearly R5-million cash, luxury watches seized as 28s gang boss accused Ralph Stanfield’s brother arrested

Earlier this month, Barbara Johnson was among three suspects arrested in a case linked to the Stanfield and Johnson matters.

She appeared in a Cape Town court along with her two co-accused, as well as one of Stanfield’s brothers, Kyle. He was arrested a short while before Barbara Johnson and was charged with defeating the ends of justice.

Unlike Johnson, the accused in that case, including her mother and Kyle Stanfield, were granted bail of R10,000 each. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.

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Question: We left South Africa 10 years ago and eventually ended up in Canada, where we now live. We never officially emigrated. Will this cause problems in years to come?

Answer: Many people leave SA to work abroad. What was originally an adventure to get some offshore experience often becomes a permanent arrangement. As they did not intend formally emigrating when they initially left the country, they are still registered with the South African Revenue Service (SARS).

If you didn’t inform the authorities of your intention to live elsewhere, SARS will still regard you as a South African taxpayer, even though you have been in Canada for 10 years.

If you are a South African taxpayer, you will be taxed on your worldwide income, regardless of where you live. This is important to bear in mind, especially if there is no double taxation agreement in place between South Africa and the country you are currently residing in.

In the past there was a formal process called financial emigration. This was replaced a couple of years ago  with a new concept of being “ordinarily resident”. SARS takes various factors into account when it comes to determining if you are ordinarily resident in a country. These would include:

• Where you work;
• Where you stay; and
• Where your family and social relationships are based.

In essence, it is the place that you call home. In your instance, it would be Canada.

You would need to notify SARS that you are no longer ordinarily resident in South Africa and that you should be deregistered as a taxpayer. This will have consequences.

Up to date

I suspect that you have not submitted any income tax returns over the past 10 years. These may be required in order to bring your tax affairs up to date. Under normal circumstances, if you have been paying taxes in your new country, there’s a good possibility that you will just have to submit nil returns via eFiling, as there is probably a double taxation agreement in place with South Africa.

Capital gains tax

Breaking your South African residency will trigger capital gains tax (CGT) on the day before you cease to become ordinarily resident. You will have to pay CGT on all your assets excluding immovable property on the day before you broke your South African residency. 

They will treat you as having sold all your assets and levy CGT as if you had sold all your assets. Your worldwide assets excluding immovable property could also fall into this net, so it would be advisable that you speak to a tax lawyer before taking this step.

Once this has been done, you will cease to be a South African taxpayer and will no longer be liable for South African taxes or estate duties.

So, to answer your question, if you have no intention of coming back to South Africa, it may simplify matters if you notify SARS that you are no longer ordinarily resident. However, there is that CGT issue that will have to be dealt with, so you should get a professional to do some preliminary calculations. DM

Kenny Meiring is an independent financial adviser. Contact him on 082 856 0348 or at financialwellnesscoach.co.za. Send your questions to [email protected]

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.

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I voted early with a special vote, but I’m worried about the envelope system violating the secrecy of my vote.

A number of people have raised concerns about special voting because of a slightly confusing process that sees people deposit their ballots in an envelope-in-an-envelope, with the external envelope marked with their ID numbers.

Don’t stress, says the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC): it’s been like this for previous elections. People casting their ballots via a special vote do use a double envelope system – the same system used by individuals casting their votes overseas. The actual ballot paper is placed in an unmarked envelope which is then deposited in a second external envelope marked with the voter’s details. But the inner envelope is removed and placed into a ballot box separately – “to de-link the marked ballot from the details of the voter on the outer envelope”, says the IEC.

The purpose of the outer envelope is to make sure that nobody voted early who was not registered for a special vote.

“Once we’ve done that verification, the outer envelope is removed and discarded,” IEC deputy CEO Masego Sheburi said in a press briefing on Monday afternoon.

I keep hearing rumours about potential violence around elections. What’s the story there?

Several organisations have released internal memos which warn about possible protests around the elections: among them, the FirstRand financial services group and the security company Fidelity.

FirstRand’s memo pointed to KwaZulu-Natal as a possible risk area due to support for former president Jacob Zuma and his MK party, which has been embroiled in a succession of legal scuffles leading up to the poll.

Although police last week warned the public against “making or distributing inflammatory statements that have a potential of creating a state of panic in communities”, a leaked memo from the KZN police commissioner’s office seems to confirm that the SAPS is braced for “possible nationwide uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) protest action”, which is “anticipated to take place nationwide during the months of May and June 2024”.

Police have refused to discuss the memo, saying they don’t comment on internal documents.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS), however, has said it is unlikely that the polls will “result in widespread public violence”.

“The Institute for Security Studies’ Protest and Public Violence Monitor typically picks up a small number of protests during campaigning and on voting day by disgruntled communities, usually regarding service delivery failures,” it said.

While noting that the closeness of the likely election result may give rise to heightened risk, the ISS suggests that a return to the violence seen during the July 2021 riots is unlikely because, among other factors, “police and private security have since improved communication and coordination”.

The country’s security chiefs, appearing at a Monday briefing by the National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure, said they would take a zero-tolerance approach, including to anyone trying to incite violence online.

Do I have to bring my own black ballpoint pen to the ballot box?

No. This is hogwash. There is a Facebook message from someone’s aunty doing the rounds claiming that the IEC-provided pens contain evaporating ink, which then allows anyone to re-mark your ballot with any vote they want.

It’s nonsense, as the IEC has confirmed and AfricaCheck has reported. Pens containing normal, non-evaporating ink will be provided for voters to use.  

The MK party says it found a bunch of ballot papers pre-marked with votes.

The MK party has circulated videos claiming that its supporters found ballot papers already marked with votes at an IEC warehouse at Hammarsdale, western Durban.

The IEC’s Sheburi told the SABC that this “can’t be further from the truth”, and that the ballot papers were only marked with the “details of the voting stations”.

At Monday’s IEC briefing, deputy CEO Mawethu Mosery added that the IEC has met with MK leadership in KZN to establish the “basic rules of engagement” with regard to the IEC’s work. 

He said that criminal charges as a result of this disruption to the IEC processes were not being ruled out.

There were rumours that some voting stations couldn’t process special voting on Monday because they didn’t have the necessary ballot papers or envelopes.

The IEC denied this on Monday, saying all voting stations nationally were equipped with adequate supplies of ballot papers and stationery. However, a few stations had to open later than 9am because the delivery of said supplies was delayed.

What about the places where voting couldn’t take place on Monday because of protest action or taxi strikes?

Disruption to special voting on Monday was reported in spots across the country, from Orange Farm in Johannesburg to Mthatha in the Eastern Cape.

The IEC’s Sheburi said on Monday that, in total, 107 voting stations could not operate as they were supposed to, but voting proceeded as normal at 22,000 other stations.

Mosery said the IEC would indicate at a future briefing whether it was possible to organise replacement voting.

Concerning Mthatha, he said: “We will do everything humanly possible to extend the [voting] right to these people without causing risk to our staff.”

Doesn’t it seem like the IEC is facing greater challenges this year – between the MK party’s shenanigans, the protest action and the logistical difficulties of three ballots?

Not according to the IEC. About the disruptions to special voting on Monday, Sheburi said: “Reports of difficulties are insignificant in the greater scheme.” DM

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024

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Despite promises by Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi that they would be paid by 24 May, many nonprofit organisations across the province say they are yet to receive their subsidies from the provincial Department of Social Development.

In a meeting with organisations on 14 May, Lesufi promised that those that had concluded funding agreements with the department would receive their subsidies by 24 May. The new financial year started on 1 April, but many organisations have still not received subsidies for the first quarter of the year.

Delays in funding have forced several organisations to close and others to limit their work. A number of organisations are on the brink of closure. GroundUp is aware of many organisations with successful funding applications that have still not received service-level agreements.

Read more in Daily Maverick: ‘The stress levels are just awful,’ says NPO awaiting funding decision from Gauteng government

Department spokesperson Themba Gadebe told GroundUp that a recent court order, compelling the department to finalise funding agreements by 30 May and to pay subsidies within seven days of the agreements being signed, “supersedes” Lesufi’s promise to pay organisations by 24 May.

“The Department is compelled to stick to the timelines given by the court,” said Gadebe.

The court order was obtained by the Gauteng Care Crisis Committee, a voluntary body of nonprofit organisations. The committee had approached the court on an urgent basis last week.

In an affidavit presented to the court, department head Bongani Ngomane argued that a court order was unnecessary, because “the Department anticipates having completed [the funding process] on or before 24 May 2024, and to have informed all applicants of the outcome of their applications by that date.”

Organisations told GroundUp that things were “chaotic” at the department’s offices on Friday, as people sought answers about agreements and the payment of subsidies. They said a lack of communication from the department forced them to go to the department’s offices in person.

Epilepsy Gauteng was one of the organisations that received and signed service-level agreements almost a month ago, yet no funds have been paid to its account.

Director Aileen Langley said they have no money to cover expenses including food and staff salaries. “We have already received notice that our electricity will be cut and our staff won’t be paid for the second month in a row,” she said.

Included in the services run by Epilepsy Gauteng are residential programmes that provide 24-hour care for people living with epilepsy, neurological disorders and intellectual disabilities. The organisation has had to rely on staff members to work on a voluntary basis, and there are not always enough to care for all the residents.

“A resident was physically attacked by another resident over the weekend. This is a direct result of not having an adequate number of staff on duty to prevent or manage such incidents,” Langley said.

Thoko Budaza, executive director of People Opposing Women Abuse (Powa), said she rushed to the department’s offices on Friday after hearing at the last minute that she had to physically collect the service-level agreements.

“There were about a hundred people when I got there. We were all being treated so inhumanely. Most of the officials couldn’t give us answers,” she said. Many people, herself included, went home empty-handed, without a service-level agreement or an explanation.

One delay after another

In her founding affidavit in the court case, the Gauteng Care Crisis Committee’s chair Lisa Vetten said the funding process had been beset by delays and confusion since September 2023:

• By September 2023, some organisations submitted new business plans for the next financial year, “at the request of regional offices”.
• But during a meeting with senior officials on 4 October 2023, the Department said an official call for the submission of business plans would be circulated the following week. This did not happen.
• Meanwhile, some regional offices were telling organisations that they did not need to submit new business plans.
• At a meeting with senior officials on 24 October, organisations were told again that the call for submissions would be made the following week.
• On 26 October, a voice note from a department official informed organisations that the call for submissions would appear in newspapers the following week, that the previous three-year funding cycle would be terminated, so all organisations would have to submit new business plans, and that “strict compliance” would be required.
• On 1 November, the call for submissions was advertised in newspapers, the closing date being 3pm on 20 November 2023.
• A template for the business plans was distributed on 3 November.
• On 6 November a new template was provided.
• On 10 November a WhatsApp voice note from a department official told organisations to submit the applications to the Agriculture department, not the Social Development department (MEC Mbali Hlophe is the MEC for both departments).
• On 20 November, the day of the deadline, the department confirmed the address had changed to the Agriculture department and the deadline for submissions was extended to 27 November.
• On 3 December, organisations received a Funding Checklist, which required new documentation. Organisations had already submitted business plans without knowing about the new compliance criteria.
• The adjudication panels were supposed to meet between 7 February and 28 February 2024, but only on 20 March did the Department announce that the funding allocations will be finalised by the end of March and funding would follow by the end of April.
• Funding applications were not finalised by the end of March, but in April, after the start of the financial year, the Department announced that allocations had been completed.

In his affidavit to the court, the department head said that the delays had “not been unreasonable”, because the funding process had been restructured to prevent fraud and corruption.

He added that “the office of the HOD has also been recently vacated, resulting in some administrative challenges within the Department.”

The contract of previous head of department Matilda Gasela came to an end in April. Gasela had been appointed to head the department in 2023, despite an SIU investigation recommending her criminal prosecution for fraud allegations dating to her time at the Department of Agriculture. DM

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Opinion polls suggest that KwaZulu-Natal, with 5.7 million registered voters, will be closely contested in Wednesday’s general elections and is likely to emerge with a coalition provincial administration as no party will win the province with an absolute majority.

The province has a history of political violence and saw widespread destruction in the 2021 unrest that was sparked by former president Jacob Zuma’s incarceration. The elections have heightened tensions in the province, with the authorities on high alert for possible protests.

About a week before the elections, the All Truck Drivers Forum and Allied South Africa (ATDF-ASA), an organisation that claims to be fighting for the rights of South African truck drivers, threatened a shutdown of all the major roads and freeways in KZN to protest against the hiring of foreign truck drivers. The shutdown was called off at the eleventh hour.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024 — on the road

On Friday, 24 May, a group of uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party supporters tried to block the N3 highway in protest against the Constitutional Court judgment which ruled that Zuma, the leader of the MK party, was not eligible for any position in the National Assembly due to his conviction and sentence of 15 months’ imprisonment for contempt of court.

Before the judgment, the MK party had announced Zuma as its presidential candidate and, although his candidature is now null and void, an image of his face will still feature on the ballot paper.

The ANC has been campaigning heavily in Umlazi township in efforts to counter the rise in popularity of the recently formed MK party. (Photo: Felix Dlangamandla)

MK’s protest was quickly dealt with by members of the riot police and other members of the National Joint Operational and Intelligence Structure (NatJoints). 

But on Sunday night, a group of MK supporters allegedly blockaded the Electoral Commission of South Africa’s (IEC’s) logistical centre in Hammarsdale and held IEC staff hostage, accusing them of trying to rig the elections.

Here too, riot police had to be called in to defuse tension.

IEC deputy chief electoral officer Masego Sheburi said: “In Hammarsdale, a group of persons purported to be members, supporters or leaders of MK took over our warehouse, detained our people there, refused for them to leave and started circulating videos on social media claiming that they found millions of ballot boxes already marked for a particular party. That can’t be further from the truth. 

“They [the ballot boxes] were marked properly with the details of the voting stations and in any case, there are standard verifications that must happen before a voting station is open. We will take legal action because this is a flagrant disregard of the law prohibiting anyone from interfering with electoral operations.”  

Read more in Daily Maverick: Electoral Commission of SA quashes MK party’s vote-rigging allegations

There are fears that the elections could result in violent confrontations between supporters of the MK party and the ANC.

There is also lingering tension between the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). The strife between the political foes resulted in the death of thousands of people in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in the 1980s and ’90s. The current tussle for power in the province has reignited the political rhetoric that came with the violence of that era.

The latest row is around Zulu King Misuzulu kaZwelithini, some of the king’s controversial appointments, the Ingonyama Trust and the vast area of land under its command.

Possible protest action

Last week, the SA Police Service sent a confidential communique to district commissioners, crime intelligence heads and other NatJoints officials, alerting them to be ready to respond to a secretly planned strike and/or shutdown by the MK party triggered by the barring of Zuma from entering the elections as a candidate.

Umlazi attracts local and international tourists despite the township’s high crime rate. (Photo: Felix Dlangamandla)

The communique listed 47 hotspots where Zuma is perceived to be popular, including Durban Central, KwaMashu, Umlazi, Phoenix, Van Reenen’s Pass and Pietermaritzburg.

“The district commissioners must please ensure that the above-mentioned protest action is monitored and a contingency plan must be put in place to deal with any eventuality which may arise.

“A detailed intelligence assessment must be done so that sufficient resources can be deployed to ensure the safety and security of people attending and the general public,” said the communique, which was signed off by KZN’s deputy commissioner of policing, Major General GP Makoba.

Read more in Daily Maverick: SA’s May elections unlikely to result in widespread public violence

‘No major incidents’

Despite the tensions and ruckus at the Hammarsdale IEC logistical centre, Thabani Ngwira, the IEC spokesperson in KZN, told Daily Maverick on Monday evening they were “happy about the progress made so far and the preparation” for voting on Wednesday and the subsequent counting and result-announcing periods.

“The commission is pleased to report that all operations are going well and no major incidents have been reported. However, we are aware of minor incidents that hampered the opening of voting stations on time and these were reported in the following municipalities: Harding Ward 2 where an area manager was involved in an accident; eThekwini Metro Ward 68 where four tents were not erected on time due to the delay by the service provider, and also in Harry Gwala, uMzimkhulu Ward 5 where service delivery protests were forming but quickly curtailed by law enforcement agencies. 

“All reported incidents were efficiently resolved and operations resumed without any further delays. As a commission, we are confident that operations will continue smoothly throughout the day and tomorrow, the 28th of May which is the second and final day of the commission to conclude administration of special votes,” he said.

Observers on the ground

Bishop Mike Vorster, an election observer in KwaZulu-Natal, said observers visited several hotspots in the province, including the notorious Glebelands Hostel, and saw apprehension and excitement ahead of the general elections.

“So far we have briefings, including from the IEC. We are busy mobilising for the final day of the elections where we will be putting boots on the ground. We have heard about the hotspots listed by the police. 

“Basically, we will be covering every district. We will be working together with observers from the African Union countries and the observers from America and Europe. We will stay in these areas overnight, if necessary, to ensure that the elections are not only free and fair, but also the whole process is transparent,” he said.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024

Zakhele Ndlovu, a senior politics lecturer at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said it was the first time in many years that there was so much tension and excitement ahead of elections.

“It was only in 1994 when we saw this. I think the formation of the MK party has created much of that excitement and tension because everyone is keen to know which party will end up victorious. This is because there is no political party that will win the province outright.

“Nationally, there is excitement because for the first time the ANC might lose its majority and there, too, it would be interesting what coalitions, if any, will emerge,” Ndlovu said. DM

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The JSE was rocked on Monday morning by the announcement that the Ackerman family was stepping aside as the controlling shareholder in Pick n Pay as part of a big restructuring of the business. At the moment, the family has a 25% interest, but there is also a control structure that will have to be dismantled. 

The restructuring, I fear, is going to be harsh, as these things always are. The company said it was looking at about 100 stores, which doesn’t sound like much since the company operates more than 2,000 stores in several formats in eight countries. Not all of those will be closed, but some will be changed to the cheaper-format Boxer outlets, which leaves about 30 that might be closed at the end of the day. 

You have to say, the Ackermans’ decision to relinquish control is a generous one. Legally, there was nothing obliging the family to make this concession. But you also have to say that the company has its back to the wall. It’s amazing, but even though Pick n Pay is SA’s third-largest retailer by turnover, its market cap is one-fifth that of Clicks, which sells pills and soap (and okay, kettles and make-up and other stuff).

And in some ways, it’s all very sad. Raymond Ackerman was the doyen of SA retail and he died only recently, late last year. Ackerman famously started Pick n Pay after he was booted out of the Shoprite group for making outrageous proposals and asserting things like the desirability of something nobody had heard of, called “malls”. He then put his ideas into practice and in doing so, changed SA forever. 

It’s amazing how the boot is now on the other foot. SA arguably has too many malls, as can be seen very graphically in the restructuring efforts of SA’s largest mall, the Mall of Africa. Other innovations that changed SA retailing, like franchising, are also proving problematic in some cases.  

Recently in conversation with Gareth Ackerman, I asked what had gone wrong. He mentioned several issues, some of which are deeply “inside baseball” retail, like the split between fresh and general merchandise in the stores. He mentioned something else which I suspect might be key. Shoprite’s methodology had one innovation that Pick n Pay overlooked — hub-and-spoke replenishment. This is partly because history unfolded as it did, but also partly because Shoprite’s managers are extremely good retailers. 

The process of replenishing these stores is enormous, and as the quantity and differentiation of the products on the shelves has massively increased, the science of logistics has become the central part of a retail network.

Pick n Pay put a lot of emphasis on replenishing stores on a store-by-store basis, whereas from quite early on, Shoprite developed huge storage areas and operated on that “hub-and-spoke” system. Recently, Pick n Pay adopted that system too, but Ackerman said the consequence was that much of the previous storage areas in the stores were now empty as the replenishment was taking place more efficiently. However, there is still a cost to holding on to that space.

Debt

Some of this is just luck. Government grants to poor South Africans disproportionately aid Shoprite. The change in distribution systems also had the effect of increasing the debt Pick n Pay was carrying, which wasn’t necessarily a problem until interest rates shot up. It has now, I believe, breached some of its debt covenants, and that’s always a downer.  The result is that Pick n Pay had to do a very quick and large rights issue, which meant the Ackerman family’s ability to continue controlling the store was always going to be tough.

But the market responded positively to the changes and you can see why. After the rights issue and breaking out the Boxer stores into their own listing, the remaining Pick n Pay business will be close to debt-free — partly thanks to the Ackerman family following their rights and pumping in an additional R1-billion or so. There should also be enough to do some store refurbishment. 

Ironies abound here. Oddly enough, Ackerman said he met long-time Pick n Pay CEO Sean Summers, who had run the company for 15 years but left a decade ago, at his father’s funeral. He abruptly decided to bring back Summers and the decision was effected that day once it became clear that Summers (70) was willing to take on the job.

Summers’ plan is a consummate turnaround process that only a very experienced retailer would come up with, enumerated as leadership, resetting the store estate, improving the retail offering, optimising the operating model, and leveraging partnerships. I’m glad he knows what all this means — I only have a vague inkling.

Summers brought back other Pick n Pay stalwarts and collectively they are known as “the Dads Army”. But of course, this can’t continue indefinitely, so developing replacements will be part of the group’s challenge over the next few years.

“I believe that in the next year to 18 months, we have to have a whole new group,” Ackerman said. And as it happens, that includes Ackerman himself, although he will remain on the board; a new non-executive chair will be chosen. 

With all this and the exit of the Oppenheimer family from Anglo fairly recently, it seems that the end of family control has become the way of the world. As my podcast colleague, Mark Barnes, points out, this is entirely natural. Corporate control shouldn’t necessarily be akin to the royal prerogative. Professional managers are the new accepted corporate rulers, and by and large, it works. 

Yet, call me old-fashioned, but the creation of great entrepreneurs is also crucial for innovation, and allowing them the space and time to act is sometimes equally vital. Even though I can see the benefits, I think the departure of the Ackerman legacy as controlling shareholder of Pick n Pay is kinda sad. Still, what must be, must be. DM

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While there has been much commentary about the fact we are likely to have a coalition in national government and at least two provinces, one of the questions which emerges now is what our politics will look like in the next national elections, in 2029.

While much can change, KwaZulu-Natal is a useful model to make certain predictions about the next five years of our politics 

Polling ahead of Wednesday’s elections suggested at one point that each of four parties could get about 20% of the vote in the province. The ANC, MK, IFP and DA all have significant constituencies there (more recent polling suggests the DA and IFP have slipped substantially).

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024: On the road

This makes it difficult to predict what will happen in KZN. It could come down to a few thousand votes, or to whether smaller parties support one grouping or another (this surely explains why Roy Moodley, involved in scandals, including paying Jacob Zuma a salary while he was president, has formed his own party in KZN for this election).

This is surely unprecedented in our politics. In the past, almost everywhere, one party has dominated (usually the ANC, sometimes the DA) amid relatively weak opposition.

There was also much speculation about whether any party or movement would one day be able to remove the ANC from power.

However, the 2029 election could well be the story of several bigger parties contesting for power, with none able to dominate or come anywhere close to 50%.

Professor Steven Friedman has pointed to a future dominated by coalitions, where no one party bosses those groupings.

In other words, instead of what we currently see in Joburg or other councils, there will be no contest between an “ANC-led coalition” or a “DA-led coalition”. Rather there would be groupings of parties that have about 20% of the vote in a particular legislature, along with much smaller parties.

Mixed consequences

This will be a huge change. It will mean that no one party dominates or ensures that its policy becomes law.

This will have mixed consequences.

It may well prevent the kind of grand State Capture that occurred during the Zuma era. Had the ANC not dominated our politics as it did then and without Zuma’s dominance of the ANC at the time (much lamented by the ANC now), the Guptas could never have stolen as much as they did.

Also, no one party will be able to force through destructive policies.

However, as has been seen in coalition governments, this does not mean corruption will stop.

The risk is that politicians from different parties will work together with corrupt intent to share the spoils.

This appears to be the next likely outcome — parties working together not out of any shared ideology, but simply to stay in power.

As a result, it will be difficult to have a shared agenda. If this happens, it is likely that none of the major problems that require government intervention will be solved. There will be no agreement on what is to be done and no interest in resolving the problems in the first place.

Role of smaller parties

Also, smaller parties may well continue to play an outsize role in our politics. There will be more incentive for people to form them, even if just for small strategic advantages.

Arguably, this is what has happened in Joburg and several other metros.

Smaller parties will organise along the lines of ethnic identity and personality politics, with more parties that closely resemble MK — marshalled around a particular ethnic identity and one particular personality.

Unfortunately, despite the fact this type of politics will revolve around parties working together, it will increase the incentive for parties to try to divide voters.

Some will use tactics like the DA’s flag-burning advert to gain attention and to incentivise their constituency to vote.

Others may go further and campaign for certain areas, like KZN and the Western Cape, to secede from South Africa.

While this scenario points to significant problems in our future, there are some problems that it does avoid.

Many have been impatient for change in our politics, but it now appears that change will come much more slowly than previously believed, with less opposition to that change.

To put it another way, several years ago, many in the commentariat discussed whether the ANC would give up power peacefully if it fell below 50%. It is surely significant that virtually no one asks that question now.

This is because the pace of change is so slow there is no shock, which also means there is no violent resistance to the change.  

Instead of a quick and bloody revolution, there is slow and steady evolution.

Of course, our politics still can and will surprise. It is possible that a grand national coalition will take power, if not now, then in 2029, particularly as the ANC may then realise that would be the best way for it to maintain a large amount of control in government.

That said, the current trends suggest our politics is about to get more complex, with more players, no single-party dominance and fewer principles. DM

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