ANALYSIS
Slowly but surely, separatism is becoming an electoral issue — possibly as early as 2029
While much of the focus of our elections is on the future of South Africa, there is a growing list of groups pushing for secession. Instead of campaigning for a better common future, they are against the ties that bind us, claiming their futures would be better outside South Africa. While these groups will not win a significant share of the vote in the 29 May polls, the experience of other nations shows their ideas could soon have a more profound impact.
In the past few months, at least three South African political groups have declared that they would prefer to be in a territory with some kind of border between them and South Africa.
The leader of the Abantu Batho Congress (ABC), Philani Mavundla, wants the “Zulu Kingdom” to be independent of South Africa and has campaigned under the slogan, “Vote for Abantu Batho Congress to bring back the land of the Zulus!”
The Referendum Party, a group describing itself as a “single-issue” party dedicated to forcing a referendum on the independence of the Western Cape, has campaigned under the slogan: “If you want Cape Independence and a First-World future, you are going to have to vote for it in 2024!”
And, in a “Joint Afrikaner Declaration”, a group of organisations released a document in which they stated, “The Constitution recognises the pursuit of territory.”
If you consider our difficult history, it is no surprise that groups like this have emerged. South Africa has only been a single state since the imposition of it on all the people living here by the British Empire in 1910. That unit was defined by the end of the colonial era and then apartheid.
Our country does not have a long history as a single distinct polity. Some people are bound to have cultural memories of what they regard as a happier time when they were able to enjoy “self-determination”.
Of course, it is unlikely that any of these groups will win significant shares of the vote in the near future. But, that does not mean their — fundamentally dangerous — ideas won’t have an influence over the long term.
Their real power might well lie in their relationships with other political groups.
For example, Mavundla is not just the leader of the ABC. He is also an adviser to King Misuzulu kaZwelithini. He is the mayor of the Umvoti Local Municipality, having previously been the deputy mayor of eThekwini. He has only been able to win these council positions through his relationships with the ANC and the IFP.
He is not speaking in a political vacuum — the IFP also campaigns on largely ethnic lines; it appeals primarily to people who speak Zulu in KwaZulu-Natal.
It is entirely possible that Mavundla can pull parts of the IFP in the direction in which he is heading. By campaigning for an independent Zulu kingdom, he may force the IFP to take a position on the matter.
Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024
Current unhappiness
Turning to the Referendum Party (RP), its website is proof that it is well-resourced and that the people behind it have an understanding of the current unhappiness among diverse groups. When its site proclaims, “If you want Cape Independence and a First-World future, you are going to have to vote for it in 2024!”, it knows exactly who it is appealing to.
It claims to be working with other parties and to have a relationship with the Freedom Front Plus.
But, more importantly, it also appears to be trying to influence the DA. It claims, “Our goal is to convince 100,000 DA voters to vote RP in 2024. Vote RP to keep a DA Government and secure a Referendum!”
It is not speaking in a vacuum.
The DA has been campaigning for more powers for provinces, particularly the Western Cape. The party regularly demands more powers over policing, claiming that it will be able to reduce crime while the national government cannot.
This could well see the demands being made by the Referendum Party pulling the DA in its direction.
At the same time, the signatories of the Joint Afrikaner Declaration have said they included the phrase “The Constitution recognises the pursuit of territory” to ensure the people who run the Orania settlement join them.
This means the organisers of this declaration are giving important influence to a group that gives every impression of wanting to exclude black people and prioritise white Afrikaans people.
Again, it is an example of a larger political group being pulled in the direction of separatism by a smaller group.
Unfortunately, there are many examples of the separatist ideas of small groups influencing the politics of bigger groups.
One of the most recent examples is that of the UK Independence Party, which agitated to leave the European Union (EU). It had only two MPs in the British House of Commons, both of whom belonged to other parties before they defected. (However, it was the biggest party representing British voters in the European Parliament.)
Despite that, this party’s ideas gripped British politics. It pushed some in the Conservative Party to campaign to leave the EU. It seized the political zeitgeist. Because of weak leadership in the two major parties, eventually a small majority prevailed in the vote to leave the EU.
This had huge repercussions and the majority of people in the UK now regret the decision.
It is very likely that the political dynamics in South Africa will create a space for separatist groups to exploit.
There is a real risk that by the time of our next elections in 2029, these groups will hold sway over some of the parties desperate for power.
This could radically alter our politics — instead of discussing how to improve the lives of everyone, there will be populist motivations to secede from South Africa.
This will be destructive and open up yet another fault line in our already difficult political reality. DM
Much too late.
Would have been a good idea in 1994.
There is a difference between sel-sustaining geographical entitities and pieces that are essentially broken.
Separatism would have been a good idea in 1994? That is a strange assertion. A nation which was on the precipice because of the Racist govt stoking the embers of tribalism ( IFP/ Zulu nationalism) in the townships. We seem to have also forgotten about the AWB trio who were shot like dogs on the side of the road after indiscriminately shooting at black people whilst leaving bophutatswana after a failed ‘ invasion’. It was never a good idea and will never take place in South Africa- a pipe dream like those of the Catalans in Spain. Too many South Africans have paid with their lives for the freedom of this land.
👌
I don’t know of a single example of secession ending happily. Can anyone point to some?
The secession of the United States from Great Britain?
Some see it not as secession, but as “independence” from exploitative rulers.
I get that.
Possibly do you mean the Secession of the Southern States from the Union? A good example of how secession ‘did not end happily’.
I’d argue, not vociferously though, that an element of secession must be the forming of a country 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯 the confines of existing borders of another ‘host-body’ country (for lack of better analogy). This would similarly apply to ‘splitting’ a country in two – there must in some form of contiguity for it to be secession.
‘Who’ is ‘secessioning’ from what is also a factor. If say, Alaska had had enough of being part of the USA and wanted to ‘break away’, not just physically, would that constitute secession or independence? If the Indigenous People of Alaska wanted their own nation, I’d go with independence. If everyone in Alaska 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘰𝘵𝘰 no longer wanted to be part of the USA, that I would call secession – even though Alaska in not contiguous with the USA (I says, killing my own, un-vociferous argument).
Throwing off colonial shackles, as the Americans did with the English, ja, that’s independence.
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I shall cogitate on this and maybe even look it up – thanks for the food for thought, I hope you have a marvelous Friday and a splendid weekend!
So what now?
The ‘scrambled egg’ Rainbow Nation plan of Mandela has FAILED miserably.
So what do we do now?
It is evident in the voting paterns that SA is doing a racial sensus every 5 years rather than an election, because voters vote for Black, Brown or White leaders irrespective of political party policies.
In a frenzy for power to controll the (tax) money!
And Zulus vote for Zuma …. he … he … he …
Shouldn’t we reconsider the policies of SEPERATE DEVELOPMENT?
If it is proposed by the Zulu king … in stead of by Whites … perhaps it can work?
But then … who gets the power to controll the money?
What a mess we’re in!
SA is no country or a nation and it will never be one.
The SA Union was imposed on 2 independent Boer Republics and 2 Brittish colonies in 1910.
And tossed into this Union was about 9 Bantu nations …. without their consent!
What now?
These movements are symptomatic of the utter failure of the ANC to govern SA with any degree of competence. If South Africans have any pride in being South African, they should ignore these separatist parties and concentrate on voting the ANC out of office by supporting parties that have demonstrated that they can govern competently. Make South Africa the nation it can be!
Good answer. Cape Independence (easily the most popular and well-funded separatist movement) is existing because of the failures of the ANC, not because of too much diversity or separate nations or whatever. If the ANC governed well, we wouldn’t be having this conversations. Voting out the ANC is the best way forward for SA and it is actually the easiest.
What I never understand about supporters of secessionist ideologies is this notion that if they are “allowed” to go off and form their nation, they often seem to forget the world that we actually live in. As a smaller nation, everything about being a sovereign entity will be more expensive as a percentage of its GDP, i.e., managing a standing army, maintaining a health system, collecting taxes, and so on. All of these things are required Day 1 to provide a stable society for its inhabitants. It won’t be this happy, perfect little corner of the world but rather it will just be yet another impoverished nation struggling to provide basic services which makes it an easy target for exploitation by more powerful nations. More disturbingly, it will likely end up becoming a yet another base in Africa for radical ideology.
Quite right.
Agree. Although not exactly the same …UK Brexiters are learning that there is a big price to pay for nostalgic sovereignty fantasies. The world has moved on. There aren’t anymore systems to sustain the old school great Zulu nation, Great Britain, great America etc. To reinstall these systems will be a huge step back for humanity. We must adapt and move on wiser and better together. So, timely article. We have a big job ahead of us to build strengthen the middle and starve separationists.
Not only white people speak Afrikaans you know, right? The Afrikaans culture includes nonwhite Afrikaans speaking groups.
This seems that the plan for Mandela has failed in our country South Africa
It’s not exactly as if the Western Cape is self-sufficient, agriculturally or industrially.
So, apart from the fact that agitating for succession is petty and small-minded, it doesn’t even make economic sense.
Neither is Singapore self-sufficient agriculturally or industrially, so does that make them a failed or impoverished nation?
Singapore controls one of the the most vital shipping routes in the world. The Western Cape has very few geographic and economic advantages over others countries.
South Africa is beset by two wildly differing idealogies, and blind support for both. Historically any attempt at ‘unity’ in this regard has failed. You can’t marry hyper-socialism to leftist capitalism. Ever. The palestine vs israel malarky is just a symptom of this. And in a democracy where you get either one or the other, no thanks. Scoffers will scoff, but asking me, as a western supporting capitalist to wait and see if my country offers me that, or frankly, the total opposite, and then asking me to just be ok with the outcome never works, for either party. So you secession scoffers can honestly suck it. Your romantic utopia of us all being better together is frankly crap.
An expected response in a failed state where the ANC regime has not met the expectations of the vast majority of the people. However, the answer doesn’t lie in carving up the country but in using the successful provinces as models for the rest of the country and for the electorate to insist on change by voting based on performance not promises.
Totally agree.
Yes, that is what was supposed to have happened. Yet to our tremendous disappointment, the cognitive dissonance of the majority of voters continues to prevent them from measuring a party by performance metrics. As has been so obviously displayed to us in the contrast between Cape governance and the rest of the country.
Now that it is clear that this dream of them changing their mind based on logic will not happen, what other options do we have to at least save some part of the country from being brought down to the same level as other parts?
Mandela’s dream has been betrayed. Cape Independence will allow at least the Western Cape to build his vision. A true non-racial first world county for all.
My vote is going to the Referendum Party!
What a waste.
Are you refering to the betrayal of Mandela’s dream, or Gatiep Peterson’s vote?
The fact that South African leadership allowed Orania to be after the fall of Apartheid has given others the idea of “why not us?”. So, South African leadership needs to do the right thing, as there are currently sitting on a powder keg that may blow up in future!
Do you call what we currently have as rulers, ‘leadership’?? Shame on you!
Please refrain from this insipid ‘whataboutism’ that constantly infects these pages. Orania is a post-democratic foul stain on this land, much like the talk separatism. It absolutely has no place in a Constitutional democracy built on the sacrifices of many.
From various coverage I have seen about Orania from both black and white perspective, it seems to be a resounding success story.
It may not have much place in our constitutional democracy, but I do so wish our democracy had led to much success for all within it, like Orania has led to success and happiness for the people within it who make it work. Notably, Orania, a success story of a town in a desert without much in the way of natural resources.
Couch it however you wish to for you to sleep at night. Orania is a foul stain- a so called town borne out of a sense of racist superiority, a success I think not- stop excusing such depravity especially in country where the majority were treated as subhuman.
Western Cape can only Flourish if they become a independent Country, because
Mandela’s Dream for a rainbow nation never came to fluition because of these corrupt ANC Polititions.
And even tho Western Cape has its own constitution. They have not been allowed to use it.
ANC has failed all the other 8 provinces
The 9th province has never in 29 years voted for ANC. They do not allow Western province to act in there citizens behalf and therefore the Western Cape will also become a failed state if they don’t become Independent
And if the Zulu nation succeeds in seceding, are they going continue to channelling millions into the excesses of their royal family from the near bankrupt KZN coffers? It would be nice for SA taxpayers to be relieved of this onerous theft of their hard earned money just to give a group in one province a fat lifestyle.
Stephen, you are talking bulldust with your comments on Brexit. People voted to leave, the EU, like the ANC, made it very difficult to do so in a credible manner.
He is speaking B…..s…t on everything. Suddently the Independent party becomes the DA and the group of Afrikaners becomes a party who has said nothing of what it implies it said or meant. Truely disengenious and dishonest journalism to taint a certain cultural group
Back in the day it was my half Afrikaner uncle who, with a few beers in him, used to wax on on how Natal (as it was) should be independent from the rest of SA. Apparently the treaties and documents signed by Bishop Colenso specifically excluded union with anyone…
So W Cape, with no coal, no iron or steel, no gold or diamonds, and just a few small metal bashing factories will return to a pastoral / service type economy relying on tourism and presumably financial skulduggery to finance its economy…
And KZN will shine up the port and refineries to become a logistics hub for the interior, (look at a map and the closest port to Joburg et al is Maputo) while defying the world to dig all the coal out of Escourt to keep the alu refineries in Richards Bay cheap and supplying China….
Joburg will self produce, import and consume as always, and the rest will look on in envy.
Trouble is even in countries like Scotland, the independent parties always end up being corrupt.
Which might be the strongest argument yet — look at all the rich politicians after 30 years of one country, if there are six there will be six times as many ! Moet all round….
Sure, those in the W Cape are envious of those in Joburg. Strange that those in Joburg who can afford to are all making plans to move Capewards if not abroad. I’ve never before seen so many “For Sale” signs in the more affluent suburbs around Sandton.
As metioned in a previous comment, Singapore has “no coal, no iron or steel, no gold or diamonds” either, does that prevent them from running a prosperous economy?
Resources do not make an economy successful, good governance does.
This is a very moot point. In the run-up to Union in 1910 the dominant question was whether to have a centralised state or a federation. The issues were very different (the British Crown versus semi-independent ‘Boer’ interests) but the big strategic picture remains similar today. Canada back then, as now, became a federation and so did Australia. Federation means that there are guarantees of both similarity and difference, and mutual sustainability – along with regional distinctions. It seems a fair option (without reactionary secession) for us. It is de facto in the present Constitution where more authority than is often realised may be devolved to provinces (e.g. policing and transport). I suspect that a federalised state is, in the long run, almost inevitable. It is fundamentally I guess about language groups and identities, which are seemingly unavoidable factors in SA. Further, for other strategic reasons (water in particular) I suspect that in the even longer term most of Southern Africa may end up as a broad kind of federation without losing sovereign identities. It makes sense just as the European Union makes sense, or the USA for that matter.
Agree
Secession is dead in the water ignoring that it would never be allowed.
Ask the promoters who will qualify as citizens of NewState. Born there? Lived there x years? Own property there? Own a business there?
Then ask them who from OldSA will be allowed residency in NewState and how will they enforce this?
That is before one gets to technical issues like taxation, customs, currency, etc.
I’ve yet to hear a definitive answer on that sticky question. And it’s just the first sticky question of many sticky questions.
This is the exact same questions i ask myself. Will it be that if you don’t live in the province at the time that its a case of “sorry for you” and what about the peeps that does live there but don’t want to split will they keep their SA citizenship…
How does any of thes parties expect votes when there is not even any fine print.
It sounds like even MK wants to go this way with its 4 province proposal. The logistics is mind boggling. It feels like i live in a twilight zone.
I totally agree with you.
And surely every South African would be entitled to vote in this “referendum”. And why would anyone vote to have part of their country taken away from them? They would be voting for a restriction of their own rights to move freely through the whole country. Why on earth would they do that?
And then how would this new Cape separate “country” stop anyone crossing the border? I suppose, it will next be proposed to ask Trump to assist with building a wall…
It is a lot less ludicrous for the W Cape to be independent than for Lesotho to be an independent country! And yet, there it is. South Africa needs a devolved federal system, and one that could incorporate Lesotho, Swaziland etc in due course. Lesotho and Swaziland are part of SA in every way except politically.
You need to go back into history. These are completely different.
And do you honestly think that even if there is a referendum, that the majority of South Africans are going to vote for Cape independence? Why would they do that?
It serves no purpose to conflate the break of the UK from the EU with certain provinces’ wish to break with SA as a whole. The Eu is much looser federation (union) of independent states that retain responsibility for much of their domestic and foreign policies; the idea was only to standardise a lot of things to smooth trade and the free movement of people and good across an area with some 600 million inhabitants. Brussels or Strasbourg does not control the police forces or defence forces of any single one of the member states; it tries to harmonise foreign policy for the benefit of the bloc.
SA, on the other hand, after 30 years of uninterrupted corrupt rule by the cANCer, is a different story. If, say, the Western Cape is allowed control of its own police, health, education and other very local issues, there would be no reason to choose independence. However, while the WC runs a fairly clean and effective administration, its citizens and its government are still affected by that circus in Pretoria. There is no ‘nationalism’ or separatism in the majority of these desires to go independent, it seems to be the only viable option.
“Vote RP to keep a DA Government”
Makes a lot of sense.
Very smart these RP guys!
South Africa (1910) is an artificial construct. But then, so were the four southern African colonies (two of which were short-lived republics). Probably the only country with as many ethnic groups, languages and religions was the old USSR, held togther by Moscow, and dominated by Russia. Countries with as few as two ethnic groups (Czechoslovakia) have split, or experienced ethnic cleansing (Rwanda) or serios difficulties (Cyprus). It is a short-sighted person who would bet on the Republic of South Africa existing in its present form in a generation’s time.
You people are not thinking well. You don’t dismantle South Africa because ANC or the economy is not doing well. Grow up for Heaven’s sake. Any attempt to bring back Apartheid through the back door will be catastrophic. The greed and insensitivity of that system was mindboggling…creating tiny tribal homelands on bare inhabitable places for blacks while reserving lush, mineral-rich places for a small percentage of the population. Be assured of bigger trouble if history repeats itself. At the moment, blacks are not happy economically because of the legacy of Apartheid and the uncivilized way ANC governed the country since 1994. But then, in every organization, there are always bad eggs. Unfortunately, the bad eggs ruled in South Africa. But to go back to reformed separate development will be counterproductive really….Think properly please.
Secessionism is a pipe-dream.
We should rather strive for federalism and the devolution of centralised power in Pretoria. Allow provinces broader control and authority over provincial-specific policy issues.
Some good points made here. To summarise:
1. Secession is dead in the water. The calls for this, in both the WC and KZN, are primarily reactions to the gross incompetence and venality of the current ANC Government.
2. Under no circumstance do we want a return to Apartheid-era Bantustans. This will help no one.
3. The current 3-tier government model makes very little sense. Provinces with no real income sources or powers are simply an extra level, providing more jobs for deployees.
4. A Federal model, on the other hand, with sufficient and suitable powers delegated to the Provinces will allow them to play to their strengths, and to cater for the differing needs of their populations, while minimising the dead hand of Pretoria.
5. Due to the greatly differing resources of each Province – both natural and human – the central government will still have a significant role in redistribution of funds between the provinces, in the armed forces and perhaps in tertiary education.
It seems to me that all the DA wants in the Cape is to take responsibility to provide security and the services that the ANC national government cannot or does not want to provide. Like adequate law and order, a rail service that works and serves the people amongst other services. I don’t think that they are talking secession per se, but there are surely many people who might believe that secession from the failure that is the rest of South Africa may have a positive outcome for the citizens of the Western Cape. Had a federal system been implemented in 1994, I feel SA Inc. would be in a better position today that she finds herself in.
DA has never talked succession. The journalist is dishonest
What everybody here has not mentioned, and it is important, is that the DA policy is to establish a FEDERAL STATE. Grootes mentions that the DA wants “more powers”, like some power hungry dictatorship. Not once did he mention that the DA wanted a FEDERAL STATE! All the provinces would get those “more powers” in a federation! It would cut the Central Government down accordingly, like Switzerland.
In a sense changing to a federal state would be succession for all provinces, as they’ll all gain more power to be self sustaining and potentially SUCCESSFUL. However, we first need to remove the criminals from running this country. They only want to rule, not govern as they should. The ANC and all other parties belong to the people, but the people do not belong to them. WAKE UP SOUTH AFRICA!
It is all a fallacy, and frankly a futile debate. The clear reality all over the world is masive MIGRATION. So even if any particular form of secession materialize, unmanageable migration will destroy the original rationale in anyway. Plenty of profound evidance all over the globe.
The majority of people who voted, voted for Brexit.
The only true poll is that which occurs on election day.
There are several instances of states that have separated from badly governed entities and have been successful. Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea are cases in point.
When the established parties forget who they are supposed to be serving the risk getting a nasty surprise.
Crazy times (in the whole world as well), that we live in. Just a couple of personal opinions: 1] The RSA does not have proper Leadership politicians that have proven their worth by establishing their own businesses and have run it really efficiently; 2] Neither of the current Parties have a Leader that are either a very successful Entrepreneur nor a highly respected Economist (like Argentina’s Leader that promised to make tough decisions and turn the country’s economy around within 6 months based on actions he took regarding unnecessary/non-performing civil servants as well as doubling down on gang/drug cartels); 3] Millions of people (that includes most politicians of all parties) in the RSA believe that “someone else owes them something that they do not have to roll up their sleeves and perspire to earn it themselves” (typical parasites like kings/queens/royalty all over the world). The only exception to this are the people who live in Orania as well as most farmers (regardless of race) – we can all learn from what they say and live out, i.e. “the best and fastest help you can get to solve any issue/problem/opportunity, is to roll up your sleeves and do it yourself”; 4] The value “treat others as you want to be treated yourself” are few and rarely being exercised (the world over) due to the introduction of CCP-related policies as supported by the various 3-letter worldwide organizations; 5] Adam and Eve did not have to work and only 1 single condition (“Do not eat …”.)