As ANC branches continue discussions about their nominations for the top six positions for the ANC’s December conference, it remains apparent that President Cyril Ramaphosa will be tough to dislodge. This is despite the serious questions emerging around the Phala Phala scandal, and his refusal to explain in public what happened. 

Ramaphosa appears unlikely to come out of the conference with a resounding mandate that will give him the muscle-power to continue his reforms in South Africa and the party itself. While he seems likely to hold on to the position of ANC leader, there is not an obvious and massive groundswell of support for his agenda. 

A very likely outcome of the December conference, from the current vantage point, appears to be a continually difficult political space in which Ramaphosa will be forced, to put it simply, to ‘muddle through’.

Few who watched and listened to the ANC’s Nasrec conference five years ago will forget holding their breath as the election results were announced. It was obvious that the future of the country was on the line.

After the announcement of Ramaphosa’s victory, many of South Africa’s elite celebrated and organised business felt it was a massive breakthrough. Many who had worried for our democracy during the Zuma era felt they could breathe a sigh of relief.

And many believed that, finally, change would come.

But much was made, in the following months, of the fact that it was such a narrow victory, that Ramaphosa did not have a strong mandate and that Ace Magashule was elected as secretary-general and, as such, could stifle any actions towards cleaning up the ANC’s strategic intentions, internal structure and political image nationwide.

It is important to note that Ramaphosa did score some important victories. Probably the most critical was the adoption and implementation of the “step-aside” rule, which will be contested again in December. That success, however, came after many years of trench warfare between the factions that were, at the end of 2017, roughly of the same potency.

There have also been moments when it appeared Ramaphosa finally had the impetus to implement reforms. And there have been moments when it appeared he was prepared to do what was necessary in the ANC.

The long game: Ramaphosa could be slowly gaining ground

Much has changed since those moments and there is now evidence that Ramaphosa is simply not able — or not interested — to implement his stated agenda of reform in the state and renewal in the ANC.

Unable to stamp his authority

While it seems Ramaphosa’s only real challenger for the position of ANC leader is Dr Zweli Mkhize, who faces possible criminal charges, it appears the President is not able to stamp his authority over even his own caucus.

It is difficult to understand why Ramaphosa would be happy to have obviously incompetent and corrupt politicians like Transport Minister Fikile Mbalula as his secretary-general, or Nomvula Mokonyane as deputy secretary-general, on his slate.

How would he explain telling society that the ANC is “opposed to corruption” and yet include people with such serious questions against them, not just in the ANC, not just in the leadership, but on his own slate?

It is also curious that Ramaphosa has not implemented a reshuffle despite Ayanda Dlodlo’s resignation from the Cabinet in April. Neither has he removed those against whom findings were made by the Zondo Commission, despite his stated intention to prevent corruption in the future, and some concrete steps in that direction.

Phala Phala scandal

But surely the biggest indicator of his political weakness is the still unresolved scandal of Phala Phala and its impact on his own political future.

While Parliament’s three-judge panel has not yet made any finding on whether he has a prima facie case to answer, it must surely be the case that this has weakened him more than any other issue. This is partly for what the full scandal may portend (his enemies claim, without providing evidence, that the money was from political players in other countries), and his refusal to publicly answer questions about what happened.

As the judges’ decision is likely to be made public not long before the conference, it is likely this issue will dominate the narrative ahead of the gathering of delegates. Even if he is cleared, opposition parties will cry foul, and the issue will cloud the opening days of the conference.

All of this suggests that it is likely that if Ramaphosa does retain the leadership, he is likely to be in a relatively weak position and may not be able to implement what he still claims is his agenda.

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Power of Presidency waning

There are other factors involved in this too. It is not just Ramaphosa’s personal political situation that is responsible. As has been noted here previously, because of changes in our politics, the power of the Presidency has declined dramatically in the last few years and will continue to decline. This will absolutely apply to Ramaphosa, even as he did everything in his power to formally transform his job into a super-Presidency. Simply, there is not enough political capital in the entirety of South Africa, a country riven by internal conflicts and crooked politicians, to capture the nation’s energy, trust and hope for a better future. After decades and centuries of abuse, we just don’t trust our ‘leaders’ any more, sadly

Then there is the fact the ANC will face a tough election in 2024. It may have to appeal to a very broad range of constituencies, just as they are fracturing. Certainly, Ramaphosa in charge of the ANC in 2023 will be very different to Thabo Mbeki in charge of the ANC in 2003.

This will have massive implications for the country and its stability.

If there is no reform, and no structural reform of our economy, there is no reason to believe that the impoverished majority will feel any benefits and that the economy will become more equal. The likely introduction of coalition politics at the national level may in fact make it even harder after 2024.

It is also possible that we will simply fall much further behind, that our people will be even less prepared for survival, let alone the Fourth Industrial Revolution, than they are now.

In the aftermath of the pandemic and the July 2021 riots, and inside a never-ending wave of energy instability, rampant corruption, burning xenophobia, gross unemployment and equally gross levels of crime, South Africa’s economy is bound to contract in real terms. The tension between insiders and outsiders will grow more intense and possibly lead to more social conflict.

Things are not looking good for anyone trying to fix things in the space that is rapidly running out of time, especially for the President with a massive question mark hanging over his own head. Accordingly, his ability to surprise us with strong, precise and decisive action is being diminished daily.

A silver lining

After all these gloomy points, there is perhaps one important silver lining to all of this.

While Ramaphosa faces questions about his personal conduct with regard to Phala Phala, and perhaps about his apparent lack of action in the political realm, it does appear that he has fulfilled his promise to rebuild key institutions.

Crucial to this is what is happening at the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) and the SA Revenue Service (SARS). As Matshela Koko and others discovered just this week, the police and the NPA are now acting against those accused of corruption.

This is absolutely vital for the future of our country and our politics. It’s worth restating this point: if the NPA and our courts start to work effectively, and at least some of the corruption is visibly and loudly removed from our politics, much could change for the better. South Africans are like that — we just need a chance and hope.

The importance of the revitalised SARS should be underscored here. If SARS is able to continue its path to recovery, the government will have a lot more money to spend on social grants and infrastructure to uplift people and the economy.

As important as those institutions are, they alone cannot save the country.

What is really needed is proper reform, to break down the walls that separate the economic insiders and outsiders. 

Without a mandate, it seems unlikely at this moment that Ramaphosa will be able to implement proper reform, almost no matter what happens in December. Therefore, ‘muddling through’ remains the most realistic option. Things will not fall apart immediately; we will not slide into a failed state, but we will not see much immediate improvement, either. 

If anyone ever had any doubt, it does matter who’s on top. South Africa’s almost decade with Zuma brought this country to near-extinction. It will take much more time to fix it — it always does.

Perhaps the next time our leaders are elected, we should all remember that and choose wisely. DM