ANALYSIS
No matter how angrily the ANC reacts, its candidate process is tainted
The implementation of Stage 6 load shedding and more reports about problems within the ANC’s branches over the selection of candidates for next year’s elections is a stark reminder of the problems the party faces, and South Africa with it. While it is an often-repeated fact that the ANC will still be the single biggest party after the poll, the problems within it may lead to serious vulnerability come May 2024.
On Friday, Eskom announced that “with great regret” it was implementing Stage 6 load shedding for the entire weekend. Coinciding with an intense heatwave over the interior of the country (and particularly in Gauteng), this has increased the misery of millions of people, a feeling that has become all too familiar to the vast majority of South Africa.
Also, the fact it happened over a weekend is another indication of how weak and vulnerable our power generation system is to even the slightest problem.
The ANC is aware of how major a factor load shedding is in elections, and that every crisis delivers more voters into the hands of the opposition.
It is not difficult for people who are considering voting to be reminded that load shedding is entirely the fault of the ruling party. Others, who were not thinking of voting at all, may now turn out for an opposition party, solely motivated by the desire to punish the ANC.
This latest load shedding crisis additionally serves to confirm to voters that it is the ANC that is still unable to fix it and is likely to be making the situation worse.
It is now a full year since Andre de Ruyter resigned as Eskom CEO (he left office in February). Despite promises that a “better” replacement would be appointed quickly, no announcement has yet been made.
Instead, Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan received a name for a candidate from the Eskom board and did nothing for several months before eventually rejecting the candidate on the grounds that he should have received three names to choose from – the simplest of issues that he spent months mulling over.
When this reporter suggested on these pages that Gordhan had not acted properly here, it earned an admonishment from his spokesperson, who suggested, “The minister has explained exhaustively, had Grootes taken the opportunity to check, that demanding the Eskom board provide him with three names of appointable candidates for consideration as the GCEO did not amount to interference.”
This may be so, but, again, it still does not explain why the minister spent three months sitting on the recommendation without rejecting the process immediately. What was he doing for those three months?
The debacle also led to a suspicion that, as Carol Paton of News24 has reported, the three ministers who could be involved in this (the ministers of energy, electricity and public enterprises) each have their own preferred candidate.
In short, it gives the impression that the ANC’s leading lights are more interested in fighting their own turf battles than fighting for the country to keep the lights on.
Also, to rub salt in the wounds, it appears that most of the progress made in resolving the load shedding problems has come not from the government, or the ANC, but in fact the private sector.
As Professor Mark Swilling has explained, the private sector has spent so much money on solar power that this is now alleviating up to four stages of load shedding.
Massive bottom-up response to the power crisis sees spike in private energy generation
The next big problem
In the meantime, while Stage 6 load shedding is felt by everyone in the country, there is mounting evidence that another failure of ANC governance could become the next big problem.
Transnet is now facing such a tough situation at its ports that its acting CEO Michelle Phillips characterised it as “Rome is burning”.
This is a problem of years of bad governance. Like Eskom, this is the result of the actions of the ANC.
While all this is likely to put pressure on the party externally, there is now mounting evidence of pressure internally, too.
Last week Queenin Masuabi reported in Daily Maverick on how ANC branches were battling to hold meetings to nominate candidates to represent the party in Parliament and provincial legislatures.
ANC struggles to rouse troops following poor branch turnout for MP and MPL nomination process
Considering how important these positions are, it is astonishing that there is so little interest.
But it may also be a result of problems with the internal democracy of the party, in that branches may feel their voice won’t be heard anyway – because of how elites in the party have been able to manipulate the process in previous cycles.
Over the weekend, the ANC issued a statement saying that the process was working properly and claiming it was “the only organisation that sets specific standards for the eligibility of candidates”. It also said the process’s “credibility has undergone multiple levels of scrutiny”.
While the party may wish to defend its process, it is up against the weight of a very difficult history, and a long-forgotten term, “truth”.
For many years, people facing serious and well-founded claims against them of criminality have been included in this list.
Even after President Cyril Ramaphosa was elected ANC leader, people like the liar Malusi Gigaba, another liar Bathabile Dlamini, the “Gupta Minister” and liar Mosebenzi Zwane and so many others were included on the list.
However, there may be some hope for the ANC here.
This process is now under the control of an electoral committee, chaired by former President Kgalema Motlanthe, one of the last holdouts in the ANC’s sea of lost respectability. He has said he will ensure that only suitable candidates are selected.
But it appears that the ANC Veterans’ League is battling to convince other parts of the ANC to ensure that no one with findings against them from the Zondo Commission is allowed to represent the ANC in Parliament.
It is also known that a large number of people with findings against them, perhaps just under a hundred, have not presented themselves to the ANC’s integrity committee at all – despite being ordered to do this by the ANC national executive committee.
So far, there have been zero consequences. This includes people as senior as first deputy secretary-general and election heavyweight Nomvula Mokonyane and, again, too many others.
There is no reason to believe that this large group of people will suddenly report to this committee now. There is every chance they will still fight for positions in Parliament next year.
Despite what the ANC says, its process to ensure only suitable people can be candidates may well result in, once again, “the usual suspects”.
If this is the case, voters will surely see it. Many may reject the idea of voting for the same individuals who created Stage 6 load shedding in the first place. DM
And they are using Zweli Mkize and B Dlamini to campaign for votes in Kwazulu Natal, where is the turn around?
… and Jacob Zuma as well. What can we say. This says it all 🙁
Why do you continue to use information from Prof Swilling for electricity updating. He is not an engineer, his training was political and African political studies, industrial sociology and history. Please use real electrical specialists for specialised information
Mark Swilling draws on the work of respected specialists as required, and situates their specialities in the broader context of climate change. His excellent work demonstrates the value of a humanities background.
I am an engineer and can assure you that Prof Swilling’s comments ring true. He does his research properly and present true facts. There is no need to descend into highly technical discussions on load shedding and its current amelioration thanks to private sector investing in renewables and own power generation.
What do you have against Prof MS? he doesn’t need to know how to build an electric power station to provide accurate info on the state of the grid. He’s able to colaborate with and take guidance from those who can. And after a cursory glance at his resume & current position, he apears well positioned to give us credible advice on the SA electric position, and about 1000 x more qualified than any of the idiots the anc puts forward.
You are right – Mark S is not an engineer and his technical understanding is limited. So it is likely that his quoted conclusion about 4 stages of loadshedding is based on the (approx) 4000MW of solar power that has been installed (tho doubt that it’s that much at household level) with the assumption that we get 1 stage of loadshedding for +/- 1000 MW of generation shortfall.
However, 4000MW of installed solar will NOT reduce loadshedding by 4 stages. The rated capacity of a solar panel is the maximum it can generate under ideal direct sunlight conditions. The actual capacity of solar over 24 hours is closer to 25% of its rated maximum. So 4 000MW of installed solar is more like 1 stage of loadshedding …..
The confusion arises because if a 1000MW coal or nuclear power station is generating at full power, it can (and should) run for a full 24 hours. That would indeed equate to +/- 1 stage of loadshedding and is approximately equivalent to the actual generation of 4000MW of solar.
Thi is seldom explained in detail because the promotors of renewables are anxious to avoid telling the public that, to achieve the replace 30 000MW of coal fired generation would require over 100 000MW of solar generating capacity. Even then, to supply power when required, mega-storage will be needed and energy storage is significantly more expensive than the panels themselves!
The article is all over the place with important issues that require to be distilled into a meaningful message or information in terms of what collectively do these issues mean for the ANC and the country. We have the bandaid for the energy crisis that is being done with a Minister of Electricity who has a lousy job of being a spokesperson for blackouts because what actually are his powers is diffuse and what he is doing by gallivanting in between power stations is not known by anybody except wasting the time of Eskom with long speeches. You then have the ANC structures that have its wheels off as they have functioned in the past with the proceeds of corruption and there are no long father christmases with stolen public money to be able to do the work. The much vaunted machinery that has been sustained with the proceeds of crime is now falling apart. What Stephen was trying to cobble was the the Minister of No Electricity who is pretending to be doing work for electoral purposes whilst the ANC machinery is not holding and there are no resources to oil it unless a massive heist is on the cards. He also raises the issue of the tainted leadership that is part of the electoral campaign and election list. However, what the KZN people are saying is that let Hanekom and Gordhan prove that they can get votes as well as Snuki then people perhaps listen to them. This situation is what the polls are leaving out because they assume functional structures and proceeds of corruption.
I am not sure why journalists are still wasting time writing about a party that is totally useless. It starts with a president who hasn’t got a clue what his duties are and includes ministers and most of the employed cadres. Let this party die and focus on proposing solutions that can lead the country out of the shyt these political gangsters have pushed it into.
Political parties have broken Democracy. Worldwide – Not only in South Africa.
When the top dogs (I hesitate to call them leaders) dictate who the grass-roots members should put forward for local elections, the system is thoroughly corrupted.
Surely a major factor in the reluctance of citizens to put their names forward for the ANC is their acknowledgement that there will be far fewer ANC members of parliament post 2024 and therefore less opportunities to make a living out of government corruption. They will look for financial opportunities elsewhere.
P.S. It is a pleasure to read an article by a regular DM journalist that is highlighting the demise of the ANC rather than criticising the DA.
The leading ANC figures (and many others) are living within their own little bubble without access to the real world nor to the consequences that normally would hit hardly any other “normal” citizen. Why is the minister allowed to postpone an important decision as long as he pleases?