One thing the Springbok players didn’t bank on at the start of the Rugby Championship campaign was a maths lesson as part of their warm-up for the finale against Argentina at Kings Park.

But that’s exactly what they will need. By the time the Boks run out to face the Pumas they will know precisely what is required to win the Rugby Championship, based on the day’s earlier result between the All Blacks and the Wallabies in Auckland.

They will know if they need a log bonus point and also by how many points they will need to win by, to secure the title. They will have to keep track of the maths while in the heat of battle because they are likely to need a large winning margin.

The last thing you want to see is a player kicking the ball out at the end of the match thinking they’ve done enough to win the title, only to be failed by a counting error. Maybe water carriers will be equipped with calculators this week, just to ensure there are no mathematical blunders.

Malcom Marx is tackled by Tomas Lavanini of Argentina at Estadio Libertadores de America in Avellaneda on 17 September 2022. (Photo: Juan Jose Gasparini / Gallo Images)

Bok skipper Siya Kolisi won’t want to emulate what Shaun Pollock did in the 2003 Cricket World Cup when he miscalculated the precise score the Proteas needed to advance. The image of Pollock staring blankly ahead with a sad, limp piece of paper jotted with Duckworth-Lewis calculations and permutations clutched in his hand, still hurts.

It shouldn’t be as complex at Kings Park, but the skipper and the coaches will have to be focused on the score more than usual.

Focus on winning

The simple approach, which is no doubt what the Boks will do, is to focus on executing their gameplan in search of victory. Only if and when the result is guaranteed can luxurious thoughts of winning margins and tries scored, become the primary objective.

And winning is not a given. Yes, the Boks secured a very good 36-20 win over the same opponents in Buenos Aires last weekend, but it wasn’t a commanding performance. They started well and faded alarmingly in the third quarter before finding an extra gear late in the game to secure a crucial fifth try and therefore an extra log point.

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Boks’ ‘bomb squad’ returns for Rugby Championship finale against Pumas”

That 80th-minute try, scored by hooker Malcolm Marx, could be decisive in the final analysis, although there is a nagging feeling that the Boks’ campaign is going to be one of regret.

“It is all or nothing for us this week, and we have a team with several players who have won the Rugby World Cup and the British and Irish Lions series,” Springbok coach Jacques Nienaber said.

“So, they know it will take nothing less than a quality 80-minute effort to win this match and the competition.

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The All Blacks are likely to beat the Wallabies at their Eden Park fortress, where they haven’t lost a Test since 1994. And they haven’t lost to the Wallabies at the ground since 1986. New Zealand have won 47 successive Tests at Eden Park since France beat them in 1994.

The Wallabies have some incentive because they could still win the Rugby Championship with a bonus-point victory and a Bok slip-up in Durban. It’s one hell of a long shot, but it’s a small crumb for the Wallabies to digest.

For the Boks to claim the 2022 Rugby Championship, it’s almost certainly going to require a big winning margin over the Pumas, working on the premise of an All Black bonus-point victory in Auckland.

And to achieve that the Springboks will have to play at an optimum level for the full 80 minutes – and even that might not be enough.

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“We’re not thinking too much. We’re just focused on the fact that it’s going to be a final and it’s going to start like that,” Nienaber said.

“We’re just focused on that, and we will think about other things later. The main thing we’re thinking about is the game because Argentina has the same thoughts.

Read more in Daily Maverick: “The Rugby Battle of Sydney in Pictures”

“The same applies to Australia and New Zealand, so one can’t be carried away by things like results and what will happen elsewhere.”

The Pumas have a mathematical chance of winning the title, but it would require an Australian win against New Zealand, without a bonus point, followed by a huge win over the Boks.

Damian de Allende scores against Argentina in Avellaneda on 17 September 2022. (Photo: Juan Jose Gasparini / Gallo Images)

A more realistic target would be victory over the world champions to secure at least one win over each of their Rugby Championship rivals in the same season for the first time ever.

“I don’t want to go bigger picture here, I just want to say here’s an opportunity for us in Durban against the world champions, a chance to take,” Pumas coach Michael Cheika said.

“You gotta go there and try and take it.”

“Tipping is for mugs and everybody wants to know what is going to happen. You’re better off watching the game and enjoying it for what it is. As an Australian, I hope Australia wins.

“I think they’ve got a good chance and the good thing about those games is that you never know what’s going to happen. However, I don’t really have that many thoughts about that game. I’m focusing on what’s happening here.”

Steyn brain

Veteran utility back Frans Steyn is making only his second Test start as a flyhalf. The last time he started in the No 10 jersey, in June 2008, George W Bush was still US president and Twitter and Instagram hadn’t been invented.

Read more in Daily Maverick: “Frans Steyn set to start at flyhalf for Boks in Rugby Championship decider”

Damian Willemse, who was effectively the third-choice flyhalf at the start of the season being Handre Pollard and Elton Jantjies, was magnificent in the last two matches. But concussion has ruled him out, which has thrust Steyn into a familiar role.

Frans Steyn in action against the Wallabies at the Adelaide Oval on 27 August 2022. (Photo: EPA-EFE / James Ross)

“Since the start of the Test season, we’ve been consistently questioned on who is our back-up 10 and Damian stood up in that first Test against Wales,” Nienaber said.

“He’s started two games at flyhalf, and he’s come along nicely. One must remember that Frans Steyn is Damian Willemse, but with 70 more Test caps and more than 10 years of experience.

“Frans played a lot of his rugby here in Durban, so he knows the stadium quite well, so if there’s a wet-weather game, he’s a nice guy to have in the team.” DM

South Africa

15 Willie le Roux, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Frans Steyn, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff

Reserves: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Duane Vermeulen, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Faf de Klerk, 23 Kurt-Lee Arendse.

Argentina

15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Emiliano Boffelli, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Eduardo Bello, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro

Reserves: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Joel Sclavi, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Pedro Rubiolo, 21 Tomas Cubelli, 22 Benjamin Urdapilleta, 23 Bautista Delguy.

Referee: Damon Murphy (Australia).

Kick-off: 5.05pm.