ROAD TO 2024 ELECTIONS
Election Alignment: ANC-EFF coalition pact for Gauteng government is a given
On the Gauteng election campaign trail, the writing on the wall for the ANC-EFF post-election agreement is straightforward.
The ANC and EFF are likely to join forces to form a Gauteng coalition government after the 29 May election if they get enough for a majority in the country’s economic heartbeat province.
Following the campaign trail, this is clear because the parties partner in launches and ribbon-cutting, using their positions in the city and provincial governments of Gauteng, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni. Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi is in a fight for his political life and has joined EFF members on the campaign trail at several intersecting points.
“The people who lead the ANC now are people we led with in the ANC Youth League,” EFF leader Julius Malema said at the Wits School of Governance on 25 April in reply to a question about a Gauteng pact. When Malema was expelled from the ANC in 2013, Lesufi campaigned publicly for his readmission. That relationship endures.
Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024
Gauteng ANC leaders say the party will receive majority support in the province, which will, with KwaZulu-Natal, determine the election outcome. However, several polls show the ANC’s support is falling faster in Gauteng, where support for the governing party has been dropping, as city voters suffer a decline in services and high unemployment.
Professor David Everatt, of the defunct Change Starts Now party, canvassed the highest number of South Africans in the face-to-face and multilingual poll, which put the ANC at 35% and the EFF at 17%, enough to form an ANC-EFF government in the city region.
Professor Mark Orkin recast Everatt’s numbers and found the ANC could get 42% in Gauteng and the EFF 20%, more than enough to form a coalition pact.
The poll was done before Lesufi started a campaign in which he launched a provincial instant-police warden service (the Gauteng Crime Prevention Wardens, or amaPanyaza), a mini-Eskom of micro-grids and substations using Johannesburg’s City Power expertise and resources (Operation Khanyisa), and two massive government jobs programmes that carry his personal brand (Nasi Spani and the iCrush No Lova R23-billion job-creation campaign with the UIF).
The recommissioned open gas turbine at the John Ware substation in Johannesburg was unveiled on 17 April 2024. (Image:X)
Ideally, Lesufi wants to win with a majority in the province, but the latest Ipsos poll puts the ANC at 40.2% nationally, which shows it is unlikely to win decisively in Gauteng, where 23.6% of all registered voters live. The city region, which covers three metropolitan areas and six municipalities, is still South Africa’s finance, economic and political heartland, even as the Western Cape rises sharply.
It is the most intensely competitive province for the 2024 elections, and new parties like ActionSA and Rise Mzansi could dent the governing party. The DA is also a strong contender in Gauteng.
“Coalitions in Gauteng are not easy. We’re fighting. The ANC will inevitably be in coalition (because) when the ANC loses, it loses forever. It never recovered in the Western Cape or in Johannesburg,” Malema said.
The ANC and EFF on the campaign trail for the renaming of the Nicolway precinct in Bryanston to the Winifred Mandela Precinct. Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi, Johannesburg mayor Kabelo Gwamanda and EFF Johannesburg MMC Jack Sekwaila with supporters. (Photo: X)
The two parties are also using soft power to project a partnership in the expensive parts of the province. Last week, Lesufi and the EFF Gauteng premier candidate Mbuyiseni Ndlozi cut the ribbon for the renaming of the Nicolway precinct in Bryanston to the Winifred Mandela Precinct. The ANC-EFF coalition in Johannesburg also renamed William Nicol as Winnie Mandela Drive in 2023 and is coalescing around her legacy as a building block to a future provincial government.
For six months Lesufi has ignored an ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) decision to cut ties with the EFF and the Patriotic Alliance. Queenin Masuabi reported here that in October 2023, the ANC’s head of political education, David Makhura (a former Gauteng premier), called the EFF a “proto-fascist party run dictatorially” and said it was using the ANC to build its power base. The NEC decided that ties with the EFF should be severed, but it looks like the party’s true power bosses will strengthen them after the elections. DM
The people of SA do not need to fear any coalition scenario. All coalition scenarios will have both advantages and disadvantages. The ANC/DA coalition is more desirable at Gauteng provincial level even though it looks ulikely at face value. The DA knows how to run cities but have no deeper connection with the sprowling township massea and realities. The ANC is still suported by many township masses and therefore ANC/DA coalition will be more beneficial to everyone in Gauteng.
The ANC/EFF coalition is likely at national level. The two parties share foreign policy outlook, BRICS or Middle East and not far from each other on many other national policy elements.
So different coalition scenarios are possible and there is no need to fear any.
Two words for this. Oink, Oink!
I’ll add a third word. Oink.
Frightening. Not all of us are fortunate enough to move elsewhere.
And that’ll be the end of Gauteng. Blue light brigades everywhere, policing collapse and plunder with impunity. This is the way.
What happened with e-tolls will also happen to a coalition, if it goes against the wishes of the people.
ANC with EFF are already running it , and you all see the fruits of it in Johannesburg and Ekhurhuleni
Lesufi’s ANC leadership will likely be dominated by the EFF’s Malema. Bumpy days ahead if this happens!
Malema will not be happy playing second fiddle for the ANC! Sparks will fly.
Hola
Lesufi is already a populist wastrel and braggard, who has done nothing to reverse the decline of Gauteng as an economic hub or to provide the kind of leadership that attracts actual, real investment into the province. That’s too much like hard work, requiring real decision-making as opposed to making up jobs through kitskonstabel projects. Can the EFF actually be any worse? Absolutely, but as long as Lesufi is in power in Gauteng, we’re stuffed anyway. I honestly hope and pray that we get a non-ANC coalition after the elections. Not only does Gauteng need it, the whole of South Africa needs it. Desperately, because without Gauteng, the rest of the country goes down the tubes too.
I don’t see this being a given at all, I can foresee an all out revolt within the ranks of the Gauteng ANC, should this be given the green light. What is more likely to happen, is the start of some sort of power struggle, with what direction the ANC is to go.
Consider the fact that the ANC has a very broad support base. ANC supporters range from totally tribal to totally intellectual city dwellers. I can see a bunch of those educated, computer literate, electricity paying, members going over to the DA if threatened by an EFF/ANC coalition. This is the first SA election where the votes are forced to THINK.
If they THINK then the DA is the prime party.
or any of the MPC party members. I think an voter, especially a social democrat will mostly go for the likes of ASA, before the DA.
Panyaza Lesufi is arguably the most hard working, effective, party member the EFF have on their books right now.
I have to take my hat off to the EFF – they are playing him like a fiddle (pun intended)
I live in Cape Town and can envision thousands of Gautengers flooding the Western Cape claming political asylum and/or refugee status.
They are here already. Look on the roads….an incredible amount of GP licence plates on cars. Much more than in December school holidays and its not anyu school holidays now. Yes I know that car hire companies often have GP registration numbers but the cars I see are mostly larger and even older cars, not the small new ones dominated in car hire populations. And just as alarming to the observant is the large numbers of cars with WP or CA registrations with car sales or service stickers on the back that are clearly Gauteng companies
Why would Gautengers need to claim asylum or refugee status? Any South African can move to any Province they would like to.
However, what you will find is that illegal migrants won’t remain in Gauteng where there are fewer and fewer opportunities. Instead, they will start heading south to the Western Cape where there are more job opportunities.
We only have ourselves to blame if we return the ANC to power. Those who vote for the ANC and EFF are the ones most affected by what follows , if only they knew
Absolutely
“Who’s this ‘we’ Kimosabe”, to quote Tonto answering to the Lone Ranger when they were faced with a horde of Apache warriors. ‘We’ didn’t vote for the ANC – you might have done, but ‘we’ certainly didn’t!
Potential voters of the ANC/EFF coalition need to vote with their heads, not their traditions, The ANC has stolen the children’s future, this coalition will be turbocharged into raping the country’s coffers once again. Heaven help the people who believe this is a winning combination!
Reinforces GP as Gangsters Paradise
Malema and Lesufi are imaging themselves again as youth leaders when they bashed up the Bloemfontein town hall to pieces during one of the youth league conferences afterparty. Good old days nostalgia
Johannesburg has become a total mess thanks to the ANC and EFF. Everything is unkempt, broken and proper maintenance of what still remains is a joke. Meritocracy is also an unknown word. The Mayor is a very well paid puppet. Wm Nicol was renamed, in haste, almost overnight, and at ratepayer cost, against the wishes of the people who reside in the area. All the ANC and the EFF want is power and money, money, money, preferably in their own pockets. They know nothing about running a city and providing good services for their ratepayers.
We need a properly run city led by professional people who know what they are doing- like Cape Town.
wishes of the people that live therepuppet
Well I hope someone has been granted the tender for the troughs because they are going to need to be huge.
Some interesting background regarding the renaming of the Nicolway Precinct (photo).
Nicolway was acquired by Akani Properties (BEE firm with R4BN AUM) @ R1 billion for the Municipal Employees Pension Fund (MEPF), its client.
In other words, Worker’s pension fund money was funneled to a BEE firm; and then used to purchase an upmarket mall in a formerly white area, so ANC politicians could have a photo op at a ceremony renaming it after an ANC politician?
Effectively Gauteng would be run by the EFF and its ANC proxies with Mashitile and Lesufi firmly in the tent.
How the financial world will react remains to be seen I suspect that there might be a similar reaction to that when Jacob Zuma had to hastily withdraw his appointment of weekend special Des van Rooyen as finance minister.
The thing with SA politics, is that one day can change a lot of things. I can foresee Mashitile being arrested by the Hawks, due to allegations of corruption – the DA already laid charges, should that happen, he will be forced to step aside, and a new (or acting deputy president) will need to be appointed.
A non- thinking electorate if it goes this way!
Vote for the party which focuses on:
– Law and order; and
– Service delivery
The rest is dangerous noise.
Well… Zimbabwe here we go. More people emigrating .. brain drain capital flight etc, etc. Totally depressing. Let’s all move the the WC province and declare independence
Well… Zimbabwe here we go. More people emigrating .. brain drain capital flight etc, etc. Totally depressing. Let’s all move the the WC province and declare independence
Interesting. Could it be that Malema has been playing a long game?
With the ANC and the EFF, being the two racist parties, drawing the most votes, says it all.
Predictions and polls are not guaranteed: a very misleading headline.
Most half-decent polling accuracy at 3%-5%, both ways (up and down)
There have been a number of election upsets that no one saw coming.
The EFF will show the ANC how to plunder banks (VBS example) and Malema will gobble Lesufi up for breakfast and swallow Ramaphosa in a couple of gulps later. Then it’s a cut-and-dried highway to hell for Gauteng and possibly the rest of SA with only the Western Cape surviving. If the ANC wants any chance of survival it must form a coalition with the DA and be prepared to take lessons in good governance. Then SA will prosper.
The ANC learnt a lot from the Nationalist Party – keep the electorate ignorant! With a proportional electoral system and vote buying grants, it is very unlikely that we will NOT have a sensible like-minded coalition ruling for the people of South Africa! The tax base will shrink further with high earner immigration, the government budget will balloon with further promises of larger grants & further bloated government,
employment will rise and infrastructure will further decay! Sadly a large majority of the electorate will not know that they are voting for policies to continue to keep them ignorant and to perpetuate the poverty in SA. SHOW THE ANCE & EFF THE DOOR!!!!
Vote for change South Africa! Votela utshintsho emzantsi afrika! Vouta bakeng sa phetoho Afrika Borwa! Stem vir verandering suid-afrika!
Its our LAST CHANCE to bring South Africa back from the brink disaster!
Anything to stay on the gravy train. Their first concern. Their last concern? The citizens.
#prayforgauteng
The EFF have no reason to make the ANC in Gauteng look good. They will help the ANC win control and then undermine and embarrass them at every opportunity.
The DA can’t break 20% and are even battling in the Cape. The Democrats in the US have beteeen begging Buden to step down in favour of a different candidate because it should be wiping the floor with Trump. Similarly the DA should be wiping the floor with the ANC. Is there still time for Steenhuisen to step down in favour of an electable candidate because he is the very worst person to choose as leader, or is ego more important than becoming a winner. The DA can go blue in the face explaining they are not a white party but with this leadership the perception is that it is white and patronizing, and perception is more important in an election than track record or pages of manifesto.
Won’t happen, too much ego and too little common sense. They jettisoned the likes of Mbali Ntuli , Lindiwe Mazibuko and host of incredibly articulated and talented young leaders in the making because they dared to be forward looking, bring a dose of reality into the discourse and challenge the establishment. The future belongs to those who are in the best before age group not those who are past their sell by date.
Thank you
Can you imagine Gauteng with Ndlozi as Premier and Mkwebane as Speaker. Lesufi must be carefull what he wishes for
Looking at KZN and Gauteng, DA posters are not visible at all.
In KZN, MK’s posters are getting all the visibility, EFF and ANC. On the coalition side IFP, Action SA and VF are on the flagpoles. Seems like the DA has checked out of this election.