ROAD TO 2024 ELECTIONS
Zuma’s MK party and unhappy voters whack ANC to 40.2% in latest Ipsos poll
More than a third of registered South African voters say no political party truly represents their views, making for a fluid final push.
The latest Ipsos poll shows that if an election were held tomorrow, the ANC would get 40.2%, the DA 21.9%, the EFF 11.5% and the start-up MK party 8.4% of votes.
Source: Ipsos
Source: Ipsos
Former President Jacob Zuma’s MK party, which started in December 2023, has climbed into fourth position, winning more support than all the new parties. It could also beat the IFP and Action SA, which fish in the same waters, the poll shows.
Read more in Daily Maverick: ANC support slips, new MK Party makes inroads, EFF backing slumps – Ipsos poll
The party seems set to give the ANC a headache, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, where it has built a head of steam. KZN has the second-highest number of voters after Gauteng. Voters will write the election results in these two provinces.
“The problems in the ANC are structural and deeper than we thought. The last push (the governing final month of campaigning) worked in some places in 2021 (the local government election).
“(This time) campaigning is not as strong as before. They are not putting their shoulder to the wheel,” says Mari Harris, Ipsos Sub-Saharan Africa Knowledge Director. “I honestly think they (the ANC) have left it too late. The profound influence of MK is a big thing, especially in KZN,” she adds.
Earlier in April, an anxious President, Cyril Ramaphosa, told the National Executive Committee (NEC) they needed to get their act together. If the ANC does not get 57% (what it polled in the 2019 election), Ramaphosa’s future comes into play, and a result below 50% could be existential for him. He would be the first ANC President in 30 years to lose an election.
Queenin Masuabi reported the party’s plans for a 57% win here. The poll shows the DA at a steady 21.9%, showing it is likely to maintain its support, while Harris says MK is also hurting the EFF, which is polling lower (at 11.5%) than in previous takes.
At a Wits Business School event on Thursday, 25 April, party leader Julius Malema said anything other than being number two on the ballot would be disappointing for the EFF.
Both the DA and the EFF say that Ipsos polls undercount their support.
Pivotal moment for SA
MK is turning into the phenomenon of the election. The Ipsos poll is the third in a row to show the MK phenomenon will knock the ANC’s chances. Both the Brenthurst Foundation and Social Research Foundation polls have made these exact predictions, concluding that the ANC is on a hiding to nothing this time.
Source: Social Research Foundation
Source: Sabi Strategy Group for the Brenthurst Foundation
“Three decades after the historic 1994 elections, South Africans are once again facing a pivotal moment. The uncertainty and apprehension surrounding the potential outcome and consequences of the 2024 elections echo the feelings experienced by the nation on 27 April 1994,” says Harris. Her research has found that 35% of South Africans surveyed say no party represents their views. Only 23% of them said the country is moving in the right direction, while “two-thirds (66%) think the country’s ‘direction of travel’ is wrong.”
Read more in Daily Maverick: The King Am I — MK’s incendiary manifesto manifests grinding contempt for SA’s democracy and Constitution
The ANC’s hegemony and hold over the South African political imagination has cracked in 2024 as its governance has caused harm to South Africans. Jobs, load shedding, the cost of living, crime and corruption have turned even its oldest urban supporters against the governing party. It needs to get nearly two-thirds of the majority in its rural strongholds of Limpopo, the Free State, and Mpumalanga to secure just over 50%, but the latest numbers show that hope is fading. The ANC runs excellent final push weeks of campaigns, but it has changed the team that traditionally manages elections. The campaign is lacklustre, with posters imported from China arriving late. In addition, its posters can’t be read from a distance, are over-messaged, and are not simple enough to make an impact.
Campaign trail
On the campaign trail, Daily Maverick has interviewed grassroots MK members. The party clearly offers an alternative for disaffected ANC members who usually stay away from the polls when they are cross with the party.
Ipsos adds a rider about the final month of the campaign. “As South Africa prepares to head to the polls, the shifting political alliances, regional uncertainties and the importance of the female electorate will all play crucial roles in determining the outcome of this election …the next month will no doubt bring much volatility and change to the political environment.”
Ipsos is the most extensive face-to-face poll of South African voting intentions and political perceptions. The country’s largest poll, conducted by Wits University’s Professor David Everatt for the now-defunct Change Starts Now movement, reached similar findings about the ANC’s fortunes but did not include the MK factor at the time. DM
Well…I’m no analyst, but perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised. Perhaps this stalemate is part of the evolutionary process in our infant democracy. We need to find our new common goal other than freedom from apartheid which the true ANC stood for. The ANC ‘s very extended honeymoon period is over, the very palpable void has not been filled.
The majority (largely blacks) wanted freedom. Liberators have failed to deliver, the strongest opposition has failed to woo the majority. There’ll always be minority issue or rogue parties attracting the fringes. They’ll always be people who disagree. The question and answer is in the abstainers. If these parties truly cared about the majority, then they’ve failed to convince them. If their failure to convince lies in their lack of peoples skills, then perhaps they should’ve hired PR/marketers to help read the room and focus their message.
The DA is so close, according to this poll. The lions share of the MPC may belong to them. In the comments here, you often read about the surprise of the supporters as to why the DA is not the obvious choice for the educated smart persons. Here’s some thoughts from probably quite educated logical people; like it or not, the DA is seen as largely representative of the wealthy western Cape. So that raises questions about the poor. It has publicly lost prominent, educated, respected black leaders. This raises questions for the black educated voters. Yes you can say given our dire situation, everyone should throw caution in the wind and vote DA anyway. You may be right and this strategy may work. But being right is not enough. Infact sometimes it comes across as sneering. Case in point some people would rather not vote or vote for someone else. So if DA wanted to win hearts and minds, in my opinion, they should’ve addressed these and others & stop voter blame. May it’s not too late!
What is obvious to you and I, is not necessarily obvious to others. It doesn’t make them stupid, it just means we don’t share the same world views and realities.
What leaves me a little non-plussed is that there are a lot of people who can’t respect the right of others to have different views to themselves. The intolerance on these pages (from quite a few) leaves me aghast. It’s probably never occurred to them that they are doing the DA’s image more harm than the opinion of the persons they disagree with.
We must respect their rights, but we don’t need to respect their views.
Amd thus you make the posters comment all the more relevant. If you can’t respect the views of others, why should they respect yours?
Dont get distracted. Vote for only these things:
1. Law and order
2. Service delivery
With everything stratified in, you are may ask questions like:
Law and order for who ir which group?
Service delivery for which grouping?
Don’t be fooled not even the Democratic Party can escape this.
You forgot to mention that DA is considered a white party and the majority of South African blacks will never for a white party. As usual South African viewpoints is dicated by race.
You are probably correct, many people think/say that the DA is “white”. However, just check the graphs, DA got 27% of the total. That must include a wad of non-whites, maybe 20% of the voters. That is 74% of the DA total. So, whoever pushes the narrative that the DA is “white” is plumb wrong.
My thoughts are that supporters of the ANC/EFF/MK and others use the “DA is white” slogan to push an incorrect narrative for their own selfish purposes.
Correct, I think the Social Research Foundation polls found DA support at about one third each from white, black, and coloured/ Indian combined. The only really multiracial party. But the “white party” narrative is extremely useful for its opponents. The DA hasn’t managed this particularly well.
The ANC has targeted the DA successfully over the years with these lies. It’s a really simple and logical formula: people think that they are probably wrong, but on the off chance they are not, then just don’t take a chance and vote differently. A lot of the people in that group have just given up on voting all together, because they are afraid.
“… posters imported from China arriving late”. What could be more indicative of the ANC’s incapacity to govern?
And Cyril said we must all buy made in SA. How is that for an example. Getting your posters from China. Where are the SA firms the ANC is supporting. Do not do as I do , do what I say says ANC
What troubles me is that if you add up the ANC/MK/EFF vote you get 60%. What we desperately need is a large left of centre block. I was hoping that Rise Mzansi would attract a large number of disaffected ANC voters as let’s face it, sadly the DA has not managed to do that. I want the ANC to be brought under 50% but not by populist parties!
Posters from China, medical attention in Russia, meddling in the Middle East war. The ANC should stand back and do some introspection. It seems more concerned with outside events and bypassing local suppliers and services in favour of cheaper imported things like election posters. Loyalty to South Africa does not appear to be a foremost consideration by the ANC. Going to Russia with a begging bowl is simply damn stupid. Our friends (and major business partners) in the West are already looking for greener pastures than South Africa. The massive BHP proposal to buy Anglo American has one major caveat. They don’t want any of Anglo’s substantial assets in South Africa for the simple reason that they know that working with an ANC government is a toxic recipe for financial hardship. Catch a wake-up ANC.
I wonder how much damage the BHP view that they dont want SA assets will cost the ANC going forward.
So the MK have taken away votes mainly from the EFF. The ANC support has changed slightly. The EFF appear to have the bigger headache, so all in all good that both ANC and in particular the EFF both have headaches and the MK is hardly too significant at this stage. DA looking good. Lets see how things pan out in a few weeks time.
You are right, comparing Ipsos’ February and April columns.
It’s striking that, while the DA seem to have grown marginally at the expense of ASA and VF+, MK seems to have grown almost entirely at the expense of EFF.
What seems to be an anomaly is borne out by the other pollsters’ tallies being within a few percentage points of Ipsos’ — within margins of error and with only SRF taking account of turnout. It’s a puzzle. (The results for Ipsos and Brenthurst do not mention turnout, which will be a big factor on 29 May.)
A depressing result. The combined vote of MK and EFF is enough to keep the ANC in power, with concessions to them, and the DA coalition out in the cold. Sadly SA faces a future of further steady decline.
Sadly, it would seem that the unwise voters are literally and physically left in the dark on how to move the county forward. This provides the perfect feeding ground for vultures to prey on.
Thanks for the add
May 29 is only a few weeks away, then we will all see how things turn out. One thing for sure is that whatever happens, it will be the will of the people of South Africa. The polls may be right that the ANC will not be able to grow its votes, but the DA has even bigger headaches. Some often say majority of the South African voters do so with emotions than rationality. I see this view as an insult to the majority of our voters because they do not put together election manifestos, they do not elect political party leaders, they are not responsible for giving clear direction, educating followers and certainly, it is not the responsibility of the majority of voters to instill the values of respect, diversity and tolerance towards voters. Only insightful leadership can instill such values. DA has the money to reach out to all South Africans, but it seems unableto make a real impact. However, it is clear that the money is attached to some conditions that strays away from the values of a unitary state.
The MK support relies entirely on Jacob Zuma’s popularity. He is an old man and is not immortal. The party’s popularity will wane much like COPE, Good, and Bantu Holomisa’s crowd – all reliant on the personality and popularity of the founding leader. Don’t expect to hear much about them in the future. Their manifesto will not survive serious scrutiny.
Are we ruling out a government of national unity at national level? ANC + MPC.
This would bring DA technocrats into possible control of critical service-related functions as well as an involvement in the management of expenditures. Works on some levels for the ANC centralists like Ramaphosa, if they can polish their marbles with their remaining electorate by improved service delivery. Also keeps their greatest political threat, Malema and gang, at bay.
None of the MPC are an existential threat to the ANC. In this election the ANC are facing a crossroads of high and low road options. Question: are Cyril and his centralists smart enough to push internally for the high road compromise?
If nothing else, the MPC can keep them in power whilst at every turn, in or out of government coalitions, the EFF will be fighting to bring them down.