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["Maverick News","South Africa"] age-of-accountability

What is known about Erf 15098, Victoria Street in George, the site of the deadly building collapse

Tragedy struck as a partially built block of flats collapsed, leaving 48 trapped and six dead, sparking a frantic rescue operation and a flurry of questions regarding the history and approvals of the ill-fated development on Victoria Street.
DIVE DEEPER ( 4 MIN)
  • 48 people trapped, 6 dead after building collapse in George
  • Emergency teams work to rescue remaining workers
  • SAPS declares site a crime scene as investigations begin
  • History of development reveals details leading up to tragedy
An architect’s impression of the apartment blocks that were to be called 75 Victoria that collapsed during construction yesterday. It was believed that 48 people were still missing on 7 May 2024. (Illustration: Supplied)

Twenty-four hours after a multi-storey, partially built block of flats collapsed on Monday, 48 people remained unaccounted for while six are confirmed dead.

The building was due for completion and occupation on 1 August before the tragedy occurred on 6 May 2024 around 2.30pm. Seventy-five people were employed on the site.

Emergency teams and various services were at the scene in Victoria Street on Tuesday in a frantic attempt to recover the artisans who remained entombed. At least 23 workers have been rescued so far.

The South African Police Services (SAPS) cordoned off the precinct and declared it a crime scene, while engineers, forensics and other experts attempted to piece together what led to the shocking implosion.

george bulding collapse

Rescuers carry a person on a stretcher as they race to save construction workers trapped under a building that collapsed in George. (Photo: Reuters / Esa Alexander)

History of Erf 15098

While many are seeking answers as to who might be responsible for the tragedy, it will take months to determine what exactly went wrong and who will be held to account.

What we do know or what is in the public realm is the history of the development of what was to be simply called “75 Victoria”, as records were filed with the George Municipality. These are part of municipal records accessible to the public.

The erf as attached to proposals submitted to the George Municipality in November 2020. (Image: Supplied)

The January 2021 plan from the rezoning application as approved by the municipality. (Image: Supplied)

In August 2020, the owner of a 1,228m²plot of land, Erf 15098, located on Victoria Street, sold the property for R2.07-million in a private sale to a company, Pacific Breeze Trading 91, registered with the Companies and Intellectual Property Commission as being in the business of “general trading in all aspects”.

The deal was finalised on 4 November 2020, according to the Deeds Office. Directors of the company are Anton Booysen, Carel Swanepoel and Annette Swanepoel. Pacific Breeze was registered in 2005.

In November 2020, the George Municipality held a “pre-consultation” meeting with an official, Ilane Huyser, and town planner Jan Vrolijk, as the “pre-applicant” for rezoning and deviations for the planned development.

Records show that applications were made by the owner, through Vrolijk, who was given power of attorney by Swanepoel, for changes to the original plans. These included an extra level, turning an original three-storey plan into a four-storey block, as well as adding basement parking.

Earlier, in September 2020, a Land Use Planning Pre-Application Consultation Form had been completed and was re-submitted at the November meeting with the municipality.

Discussions then were about rezoning as well as various deviations, including building line relaxations, height, coverage, floor space and parking requirements.

Pacific Breeze proposed including basement parking, that the building be increased from four to five storeys to include ground-floor parking, over and above the basement parking.

The building would be 14.45m tall and a roof garden (2.72m high) was proposed, which would raise the height to 17.17m.

The proposal also contained 66 parking bays with a ratio of 1.25 per unit and 0.25 per visitor, which would be housed in the basement. There were also proposals for the adjustment of building lines.

Approval

On 1 January 2021, Vrolijk was informed by Clinton Petersen, senior manager of town planning in the George Municipality, that the application for various changes had been approved.

Reasons included that “the subject properties are located within walking distance from public transport facilities (“bus stops”) and supports the efficiency of public transport systems and transport-orientated developments”.

In addition, the development “would provide for much-needed housing opportunities”, it “supports densification in strategic areas” and it would not have an adverse impact on adjacent neighbours.

“The development can thus be deemed compatible with the spatial planning policies and guidelines for the area.”

Petersen then set out the conditions of his directorate and stated that because of the changes, “development charges” totalling R1,533,848.06 would have to be paid to the municipality by the developer. The plans, Petersen added, would still have to be submitted for approval.

In March 2021, Vrolijk, on behalf of Pacific Breeze, applied for the development’s number of floors to be increased from “four to five”.

The same month, a local conveyancer certified that the title deeds contained “no conditions restricting the contemplated land use in terms of the Land Development Application”.

Apartments were originally pre-advertised for R 1.7-million for a two-bedroomed unit by one agent in the area, with the beginning of construction earmarked for 1 April 2023, completion on 31 March, with 1 May 2024 as the occupation date.

The development, it was later announced, would be completed by July 2024 with occupation in August.

Legal contractor

George Mayor Leon van Wyk told the George Herald on Tuesday that the developer on the project was the Neo Trend Group Ice Project, which had submitted plans in December 2022, which had been approved in July 2023.

Theuns Kruger, director of the contracting firm, Liatel Developments, said the company would offer full cooperation with SAPS and was assisting with ongoing rescue efforts.

On the website for the Muscle Creek development, Kruger describes himself as a “practising attorney with vast experience in commercial and construction law”.

He adds that he has practised for his own trust account for the past 14 years and that his company was formed in 2009 “with the purpose to be a vehicle to assist and consult on various property and commercial developments”.

This included “various legal aspects associated with management, but also includes assistance with the administration and financial associated with construction and developments”.

The Western Cape government has since appointed an engineering firm V3 to investigate what led to the collapse of the building. DM

Comments

All Comments ( 31 )

  • Peter Hartley says:

    If the building was only designed to be a three storey building and this design was not amended to withstand the load of a 5 storey building – your article does not say whether this was or was not done – then it is not surprising that it collapsed. The first thing the engineers appointed need to do, is check the design. This should take weeks, not months. If the design is correct, then the next possibility could be “did the building contractor adhered to the design and material standards or did they take short cuts”? Was the correct strength of concrete used and was sufficient reinforcing used? The engineers appointed to oversee the construction should be able to answer this question very quickly. It’s not rocket science. It is basic civil engineering practice.

  • André van Niekerk says:

    The article is well written but actually says very little. In essence, the article describes every element of a standard municipal application and approval process (within a well-run municipal department). It does not add anything of value regarding the potential reasons for the accident, which is good because any comment would be pure speculation.

    Comments to this article guessing about fifth floors, etc. is therefore disingenuous and unfair. When plans are amended, the municipality will still scrutinize the plans before approval. That will include the signing off of any structural designs by a professional engineer.

    In short, only the investigation by the professional team will conclude whether there was a design problem or a construction error. Until then there is nothing to add or speculate.

  • Johan D says:

    The article mentions everybody except the structural engineer. Seriously the collapse has got nothing to do with spatial planning.

    A structural engineer should have signed off on the plans and there should also have been a structural engineer on site. So who were the structural engineers?

  • Accurate news

  • Jon Quirk says:

    The article uses an interesting word – implosion – which means of course, a sudden and violent falling into itself.

    Such a sudden inward-flowing collapse, is the kind of result that an expert in demolition of old buildings, most wants to happen; this results from simultaneously exploding, pre-placed explosives, on or at, the most strategic support points. Yet there have been no reports of sounds of an explosion, though if done professionally it might all just come under the noise of the building suddenly collapsing.

    Structural collapse, arising from, for example, inadequate steel barring in the cement, or the use of inferior cement, or simply bad design, is highly unlikely to result in such a sudden implosion, and would, in a worst-case scenario be more akin to falling dominoes.

    I believe that this case needs to be very carefully examined, but as speedily as possible. We need to know the how and why this building suddenly imploded in our country that is seemingly infested with a construction mafia. Was protection money paid, or demanded, might be an interesting starting position.

  • Andrew Newman says:

    They did well to get a sale during Covid and then get it completed in 3 months.
    We had to wait almost two years to get a property transfer done during Covid.

  • No comment

  • This is just a sad moment for George. I feel for the Families of the workers still stuck under there and a great shout out for all the people who’s working 24/7 to get the workers out !!! I pray that everyone who is still stuck that God will protect them and bring them out save…

  • CLEEVE ROBERTSON says:

    It’s quite apparent that this building had no vertical concrete pillars or framework structure, simply a brick slab construction which for this size of development is inappropriate. So, who approved these plans, who was the QS, who was the engineer. So many questions to be asked!

  • Greg de Bruyn says:

    An architect’s view: The time-line here doesn’t suggest a rush to get onto site; the additional floors were part of the town planning submission, before the working drawings would have been produced, so I doubt the engineer’s would have been under time pressure. I think we’ll discover the problem had to do with support (propping) of concrete slabs, where the top floor shuttering was either inadequately support and caved during the concrete pour, or the props were removed too early, before the slab had cured. A slab like that falling 3-4m would quite likely have overloaded the one below, which in turn would create the house-of-cards collapse that seems to have occurred.

  • Geoff Coles says:

    Nothing controversial in the plans, only story……. So bad construction clearly, maybe materials, maybe no approved regularly by the building inspectors or ?

  • Hrkfilm says:

    This is a major tragedy for construction, our offices had a moment of silence for our floor meeting yesterday. Our line of work does not come without risks, but somewhere someone made a mistake. Not with maliscious intent hopefully and also not gross neglagence. The building plans changing muptiple times in a short period could be the reason behind it, but not due to incompetence, due to stressful work conditions, if a structural engineers team is put under pressure to produce plans due to them changing it could lead to something that is missed, all the blame can not be pointed at the engineer. I hope this was not the case. We’ll wait for the report and all prayers for the families.

  • Bob D says:

    I am sure we will learn the truth soon enough and trust the guilty parties will be made to account.
    It went from a 3 to a 4 then a 5 story with a basement added…herein lies the answer from a lay perspective.

  • We keep all families affected this tragedy in our prayers

  • Steve Davidson says:

    Two possibilities for the collapse come to mind: firstly, adding the weight of an extra floor was not included in the strength calculations for the concrete supporting structure; secondly, poor quality cement was used in that concrete (and the concrete cube strength tests weren’t done properly). Just thinking, but I obviously totally agree with the comments above as well. How awful for the relatives (and how fantastic the Gift of the Givers prove to be yet again – along with the municipal workers of course).

  • This is a very sad situation.

  • Jayce Moodley says:

    Very sad and tragic situation. Each individual and families remain in our Prayers.

  • This is very sad

  • Kenneth FAKUDE says:

    The plan for 4 floors was initially submitted and approved, obviously with construction material covering the length and weight of such a building.
    Then the plans were amended and approved to add a fifth floor an increase in weight and length.
    I am not an engineer.

 
["Africa","DM168","Our Burning Planet","South Africa"] a-sustainable-world

Eastern Cape conservationist discovers eight new snake, gecko and frog species in the Okavango

Eastern Cape conservationist Dr Werner Conradie, while exploring the Okavango Delta, not only earned a PhD but also unearthed eight new species, mostly snakes, hoping his discoveries will aid in safeguarding the precious natural area's biodiversity.
DIVE DEEPER ( 4 MIN)
  • Dr Werner Conradie, a conservationist from the Eastern Cape, discovered at least eight new species, mostly snakes, during expeditions in the Okavango Delta for his PhD thesis.
  • Conradie hopes his research will aid in protecting the unique natural area, highlighting the importance of conserving the headwaters of the Okavango River Basin.
  • As the curator of herpetology at Bayworld in Gqeberha, Conradie's work sheds light on the ecological richness of the Angolan highlands and the threats faced by the delta.
  • Despite challenges such as landmines, Conradie and his team described new snake, gecko, and frog species, emphasizing the importance of preserving the delta's biodiversity.
Dr Werner Conradie holds a newly discovered species of snake in southern Angola. (Photo: Kostadin Luchansky)

During several expeditions to describe the species of the Okavango Delta, Eastern Cape conservationist Dr Werner Conradie not only wrote a PhD thesis, he also discovered at least eight new species, most of them snakes.

Accolades aside, the scientist hopes his work will contribute to the protection of the precious and unique natural area.

Conradie is the curator of herpetology (the study of reptiles and amphibians) at Bayworld, a natural and cultural history museum in Gqeberha. Last month he received his doctorate in nature conservation at Nelson Mandela University’s George Campus.

Growing up in the Karoo, first in Willowmore and then in Uniondale, snakes were not his first love.

“I liked frogs,” he said. “The only time I dealt with snakes was when they tried to catch my frogs.”

But when he started working at Bayworld he became interested in the lives of snakes.

For his thesis, he studied the reptiles and amphibian species of the Okavango River Basin, an area that has not received much attention because of the civil war in Angola.

The survey started in 2012 and continued until 2019. The snakes and amphibians found included some species not seen before in Angola and some newly discovered ones.

“Additionally, the novel data generated allowed us to identify the headwaters as an area of high diversity and endemism that translates to high conservation importance,” Conradie said.

Headwaters is a term scientists use to describe a river close to its source.

“By protecting the headwaters of the Okavango River Basin, we protect the world-renowned delta and its abundance of wildlife, together with the lifeline these waters provide to humans as well,” he said.

Conradie said the civil war in Angola has led to the Angolan side of the Okavango Delta being neglected in terms of research but, because of its isolation and the danger of landmines, the area had been protected.

Now this part of the delta is starting to face the pressures of deforestation, pieces of land being cleared, the bushmeat trade and the collection of honey, which will affect the water quality and quantity.

“This study showed the massive ecological riches the Angolan highlands possesses, and provided background, as well as assessments of reptiles and amphibian species.

“Losing the quality of this complex river system… would result in immeasurable loss, both economically and ecologically,” Conradie said.

Conradie started his job as the curator at Bayworld in 2007.

Delta in danger

“I was always keen to do a PhD,” he said. And so the making of an adventure in the Okavango started. “The Okavango Delta… is an area rich in biodiversity and one of the areas in the world with the largest population of elephants,” he said.

“The delta is fed by water from Angola that flows through Angola and Namibia, so if something was to happen to the water along the way we can potentially lose what we have in the delta.”

He said there are concerns about the delta, including a reduction in the amount of water flowing in, a delay in seasonal flooding and a drop in the bird population.

“We wanted to find out what was causing this. The eight new species we found was almost by accident,” he said.

Five were new species of snakes. He is now working on describing a sixth new one. The researchers studied the snakes in the finest detail, comparing genetic samples to confirm a new species.

“It takes about three years to describe a new species,” he said.

One of the newly described species from the delta was a water snake.

Read more in Daily Maverick: New species of Amazon anaconda, world’s largest snake, discovered

“The others are what we call terrestrial snakes. They eat frogs. An interesting one was the shovel-snouted snake. This one eats eggs and its snout is perfectly formed to cut through the shells,” Conradie said.

Two of the other species were new geckos.

“The one lived in an area where the river didn’t flow fast and the other where the river flowed strongly and the water ran over waterfalls and many rocks and cliffs,” he said.

“We also found a new type of frog, similar to the one the people in Namaqualand call the reënpadda,” he said.

Conradie’s colleagues who accompanied him also worked on describing bird species, dragonflies and fish.

Landmines and lions

But doing research in the Okavango Delta came with its own unique obstacles.

“Where we worked there still are a lot of landmines. So we were limited in where we could go. At one of the rivers we wanted to set up camp, and Halo, the demining company that accompanied us, said we can, but only on the right side and only under the bridge, nowhere else. When we woke up we saw the guys picking up landmines on the other side of the river,” he said.

Read more in Daily Maverick: The ghost elephants haunting Angola

“In the southeast, we had a few encounters with lions and elephants but the higher up we went the fewer of those we saw,” he said.

He said he never felt unsafe. “We had the guys from Halo with us all the time… It is a rough life doing these expeditions. You live on rice and beans and you sleep in a one-man tent. You must bring everything in and take everything out again with you.”

But, Conradie added, it was worth it.

“It is a unique area on Earth… I am hoping our research will lead to it being declared a national park.”

It is a place of great beauty and peace.

“It is the world out there that is more scary,” Conradie said. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.

 

Comments

All Comments ( 3 )

  • Rick Spencer says:

    Fascinating to read. Dr Conradie’s devotion and excellent work to date will be appreciated and invaluable in the years to come.

  • Colleen Dardagan says:

    “It is a unique area on Earth… I am hoping our research will lead to it being declared a national park.” Such an important place. Without it the Okavango Delta will not exist – one of my favourite places on earth. Such an important story, thank you Estelle and hopefully those that matter and have influence will read it too – although there is a part of me that hopes the landmines stay and people stay out.

  • Geoff Coles says:

    Fascinating, clearly a lot of scope for the serious researcher….I exclude political analysts

 
["Maverick Life"]

Drinking apple cider vinegar may help with weight loss but its health benefits are overstated

Apple cider vinegar has been hailed as the latest immune boosting wonder supplement – but claims should be taken with a pinch of salt. However, there is evidence that it could help with weight loss.
DIVE DEEPER ( 4 MIN)
There isn’t as much scientific evidence to support apple cider vinegar's popularity as a health tonic as some might like to think. Image: Towfiqu Barbhuiya / Unsplash

Each morning at breakfast, my partner gives me orange juice that tastes more sour than expected. One day, she explained that she adds apple cider vinegar to improve my health.

As a former primary schoolteacher she swears by the stuff. She tells me she kept apple cider vinegar in the staff room so that when children became ill with diarrhoea and vomiting, she could take it immediately to protect her from the illness.

I was sceptical about yet another immune-boosting miracle ingredient. Apple cider vinegar is a natural product made of fermented apple juice that has gone sour. Apparently, the best stuff is cloudy and has sediment, known as the “mother”, because it is relatively unfiltered – this is where the good bacteria lives. Without the mother, there’s unlikely to be much benefit to taking apple cider vinegar.

But is there any real benefit in the first place? I decided to turn medical sleuth and investigate whether apple cider vinegar is as good for health as it sounds. There isn’t as much scientific evidence to support its popularity as a health tonic as some influencers might like to think.

Claim: disinfectant properties

Vinegar has a long history as a surface decontaminant and perhaps this is why salad dressings contain vinegar – as well as adding flavour, it may kill micro-organisms on raw vegetables.

But does apple cider vinegar’s decontaminant qualities translate to the human gut? Our stomachs produce acid, which acts as a natural barrier to infection, so how can adding more acid help?

Research suggests that apple cider vinegar delays stomach emptying so perhaps increased time in contact with stomach acid might account for the claimed protective effect against enteric infections.

Claim: weight loss and management of type 2 diabetes

There are plenty of anecdotal claims that apple cider vinegar can aid weight loss, supported by limited evidence from several small studies. A randomised controlled trial published in early 2024 showed significant reductions in weight and waist size of 120 overweight and obese young people. There were also reductions in serum triglycerides – blood fats that can raise the risk of heart disease if levels are too high – and cholesterol over the three-month follow-up period.

A systematic review from 2020, however, found evidence of only marginal benefits citing “insufficient evidence”. Another subsequent systematic review from 2021 – looking at dietary supplementation with acetic acid from all vinegar types – found evidence of significant reductions in fasting blood glucose, particularly in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The study also showed benefits in reducing serum triglycerides and cholesterol.

So how might these effects work? Apple cider vinegar is thought to cause weight loss through its effect on delay of gastric emptying. This increases a sense of fullness and reduces appetite. Reduced calorific intake will lead to weight loss – but how are the metabolic effects on blood glucose and lipids mediated?

Blood glucose levels are controlled by the pancreatic hormone insulin. In type 2 diabetes there is a reduction in sensitivity to insulin which in turn leads to a reduced uptake of glucose by cells. There is some evidence that apple cider vinegar – and other sources of acetic acid – improves insulin sensitivity so it’s possible that there are some benefits for those with this condition. Since high blood glucose levels are associated with high serum lipid levels, the associated reduction in blood glucose levels caused by improved insulin sensitivity should improve in blood lipid profiles as demonstrated in literature reviews.

Claim: reduces risk of heart disease

Raised blood lipids are a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases such as myocardial infarction and stroke. Can apple cider vinegar consumption reduce their incidence?

Well, I’m afraid there’s no scientific evidence that vinegar consumption of any kind reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in those with or without diabetes. For those without diabetes, the benefits of vinegar consumption on blood lipid levels are less clear, as suggested in this study from 2013.

Claim: cancer treatment and prevention

One of the more outrageous claims of the benefits of daily apple cider vinegar consumption is that it may prevent or treat cancer. A frequently quoted case-control study from China found that an increased consumption of vinegar was associated with a reduced incidence of oesophageal cancer. What some popular internet sources who cite this study don’t say is that eating beans and vegetables was also found to be protective, as well as was eating a diet with a normal salt intake and drinking water from a tap.

There are always multiple confounding factors when claims are made concerning cancer and we must always be on our critical guard.

Should I continue to take my apple cider vinegar adulterated orange juice each morning? The evidence suggests that it will help with my waistline and my weight so I’ll put up with the sour taste for a while longer. DM 

First published by The Conversation. Stephen Hughes is a Senior Lecturer in Medicine at Anglia Ruskin University.

Comments

All Comments ( 1 )

  • Steve Davidson says:

    Maybe there’s a ‘placebo’ effect?

 
["South Africa"] safety-and-belonging

ActionSA Gauteng premier candidate and youth leader found safe after hijacking

ActionSA Gauteng Chairperson and premier candidate Funzi Ngobeni and Chairperson of the party's Youth Forum Hluphi Gafane were found safe and unharmed in Benoni on Tuesday night after being reported missing following a hijacking earlier on Tuesday night.
DIVE DEEPER ( 2 MIN)
  • ActionSA Chairperson confirms leaders missing after hijacking
  • Leadership coordinating with families, tracking company, and law enforcement
  • Appeal for support and prayers for safe return
  • Further updates to follow as story develops
Funzi Ngobeni, Gauteng provincial chairperson, during a voter registration drive at Smokeville on 2 February 2024 in Soweto, South Africa. (Photo: Gallo Images / Papi Morake)

Earlier on Tuesday night ActionSA Chairperson Michael Beaumont confirmed that both Ngobeni and Gafane had been victims of hijacking and that they were missing.

Chairperson of ActionSA’s Youth Forum Hluphi Gafane (Photo: ActionSA)

“ActionSA Leadership is working closely with the families, vehicle tracking company and law enforcement agencies. Everything that can be done to expedite the safe return of our leaders is being done,” Beaumont said in an internal letter addressed to “Colleagues”. Beaumont on Tuesday night confirmed to Daily Maverick the validity of the letter.

However, on Tuesday around 11pm Beaumont updated colleagues that both leaders had been found.

“I have been informed by SAPS that Funzi and Hluphi have been found in Benoni. They are being recovered now. We are also so grateful to learn that they are unharmed,” he said.

It is believed the Ngobeni and Gafane were travelling in a Toyota Hilux registration number LC-06TC GP when they were hijacked in Olievenhoutbosch in Centurion. Beaumont said the vehicle was still missing.

The hijacked vehicle that Ngobeni and Gafane were travelling in. (Photo: ActionSA)

“I ask that you hold Funzi and Hluphi, and their families, in your thoughts and pray for their safe return,” Beaumont appealed before they were found.

In a statement released before midnight, Beaumont confirmed that the two leaders were found at about 10.45pm after being hijacked at 7pm. The statement said the pair had been “held” by hijackers, “eventually being located in the Benoni area”.

Beaumont said they were unharmed but “undoubtedly shaken”.

He expressed his “profound gratitude to members of the SAPS who were incredibly responsive”.

He requested that Ngobeni and Gafane be given space to recover with their families before a more substantive briefing is provided on Wednesday. DM

 

Comments

All Comments ( 1 )

  • Kenneth FAKUDE says:

    One day when in power he must be minister of police, he knows when we say we are fed up with crime we mean this, this experience has no chance in the corruption veterans party, I am passing KZN i cannot call the name of the party, those guys they hire to solve problems are trained this side.
    The guys named after livestock.

 
["Maverick News","Our Burning Planet"] a-sustainable-world

West Coast mineral extraction raking in billions of rands while communities endure rising poverty

Fisherman turned activist Andre Cloete sheds light on the destructive legacy of mining on South Africa's West Coast, where communities like Papendorp are left impoverished and depleted while mining companies rake in billions without giving back.
DIVE DEEPER ( 10 MIN)
  • Andre Cloete, chairperson of Coastal Links Western Cape and a fisher for over 20 years, highlights the devastating impact of mining on the West Coast, with no rehabilitation efforts and minimal community investment by mining companies.
  • Lack of medical facilities in poverty-stricken communities like Papendorp contrasts starkly with the billions made by mining companies from extracting minerals from these areas, as detailed in the report "The Sand Worth Billions."
  • Author Carsten Pedersen's report reveals the ongoing social and environmental destruction caused by mineral extraction on the West Coast, emphasizing the unequal distribution of wealth and the threat to the region's well-being.
  • Minister Naledi Pandor underscores South Africa's role as a key supplier of critical minerals to the US, highlighting the potential consequences of losing trade benefits like Agoa and the growing importance of these minerals in the global fight against climate change.
Sand mining in Matzikama, the northernmost part of the Western Cape. (Photo: Transnational Institute)

Originally from Papendorp and now residing in Doringbaai, chairperson of Coastal Links Western Cape Andre Cloete has been a fisher for over 20 years. He said that mining has left destruction in his community and all along the West Coast with no rehabilitation when mining companies finish their activity. He says it’s not just the physical environment but also the community that is suffering.

“One of the main things is that they [mining companies] leave the physical environment in a state and they don’t invest in the communities. They provide jobs only for a certain time, a few months, it’s all contractual and not permanent… People don’t thrive or prosper from these jobs while they [mining companies] on the other hand reap the benefits. You can see it.

“For the past five years, if we look at snoek, you don’t get as much as you normally do because of all these explorations happening now… Even with crayfish in Elands Bay, it’s crayfish season now and there’s no lobster during the day. We have to work at night because you don’t get anything during the day… Normally you get tons of fish and lobster in Elands Bay, now it’s only during the night because there’s less disturbance during the night,” Cloete said.

Cloete said there is no medical clinic in Papendorp, with community members having to travel to either Lutzville or Dorongbaai for treatment, yet mining companies were making billions from the minerals extracted from these communities.

This is the story of one of the contributors of a report, showing the impact of the historical reaping of minerals from poverty-stricken communities on the West Coast for billions over time.

The Sand Worth Billions: How mining companies are reshaping South Africa’s West Coast” was authored by Carsten Pedersen from the Transnational Institute. The initial research and work of the report was conducted by Masifundise Development Trust, Cloete, as well as a few other Coastal Links leaders from the West Coast.

Pedersen said that minerals worth billions of dollars have been extracted for decades, yet extreme poverty and food insecurity have continued to pervade the region.

Pedersen said there is no fair distribution of the wealth of these mineral resources — it goes into the pockets of a few and a lot of it is sent outside the country.

The report finds that mineral extraction in South Africa and other parts of the world continues to produce major social and environmental destruction. The mining of mineral sands is no exception and the report shows that continued extensification of mining on the West Coast will add to the existing social, environmental and climate crisis.

In the report, Pedersen looked at Tronox Holdings which operates Namakwa Sands (Tronox Mineral Sands) in Saldanha and Matzikama, and KwaZulu-Natal Sands in Empangeni. Pedersen noted that these operations were less visible on the radar because they did more “clean business” and good PR work, so you don’t see the same injustice. But when he looked at the scale and size of the company, Pedersen this was the one they needed to pay attention to.

West Coast mining

(Graphic: Transnational Institute)

What are the minerals in the sands and why are they so valuable?

“Every person living on the West Coast of South Africa knows that the sands there are the source of life. People walk the sands, launch their boats from beaches, catch fish from near a seabed made of sand, harvest plants (wild and cultivated) and raise domestic animals on the sandy stretches of coastal lands, and they have done so for centuries.

“They also know the sands have been a source of profit-making for the last century and a half and that their sands are again up for grabs. But why is this sand so interesting from a capitalist point of view? What does it contain and what is it used for?” Pedersen asked in his report.

South Africa’s minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor, said in the Financial Times:“ South Africa is a significant supplier of critical minerals to the US. If we lose Agoa membership, it could have negative ramifications for the US. In the global fight against climate change, demand for critical minerals has become a significant factor. In 2021, the US imported nearly 100% of its chromium from South Africa, as well as over 25% of its manganese, titanium, and platinum. We also supply of 12 of the 50 mineral products identified by the US Geological Survey as critical for US interests.”

A large amount of the minerals Pandor refers to here come from the West Coast, but what exactly are the minerals being extracted from the sands?

Pedersen said the sand on the West Coast is rich in zircon, ilmenite and rutile, the so-called heavy minerals. Rutile is the most valuable as it is a mineral containing 95% titanium, used for aircraft, architectural products, industrial processes, sporting equipment and numerous other applications.

“The US is just one of the countries that need titanium for all these different industries. The Financial Times articles state that 25% of titanium comes from South Africa for US imports. In South Africa, 60% of Tronox’s titanium comes from the West Coast and 40% comes from the East Coast. Tronox is the biggest producer of titanium in South Africa, so it is the biggest player, ” Pedersen said.

“This is why the minister was putting forward that South Africa had to maintain good trade relations — and this was only titanium, there are many more [minerals] at play.”

Pedersen explained that heavy earthmoving equipment (excavators and trucks) were used to excavate and transport the sand from the mining sites to the primary and secondary concentration plants. This concentration process takes place at or near the mining site before the concentrate is transported by truck to a mineral separation plant where it is further separated into zircon, ilmenite and rutile.

Sand mining

Sand mining extraction northwest of Papendorp, near the Oilifants River. (Photo: Transnational Institute)

These three minerals (zircon, ilmenite and rutile) are then further processed and transported as industrial feedstock to Saldanha before being exported to overseas markets.

Pederson said zircon, a hard mineral that comes in various colours and is found as grains in sand,  is used either directly as a strong metallic element in ceramics or processed into zirconium chemicals and zirconium metal.

“South Africa’s share of world zircon production was 25% in 2020 and the vast majority (97%) of zirconium chemicals and metals produced worldwide originate in mineral sands.

“Tronox alone accounted for 60% of that production of which approximately 40% is derived from the West Coast sands and the remainder from KwaZulu-Natal and its Australian mines. Zircon is a strong and heat-resistant mineral that is applicable in a wide range of products. The majority is used in ceramics, whereas the zirconium metal and chemicals are used in the production of solar panels, TV screens, jet engines, hydrogen fuel cells, nuclear reactor cooling systems, vehicle components and more,” he said.

The Sand Worth Billions report analysis reveals that the sands are a source of minerals used to manufacture a wide range of end-products that most people all over the world depend on to meet their daily material needs, such as housing, food and transportation. The minerals feed into multi-billion dollar industries and the South African sands are too valuable for mining corporations to leave untouched.

Communities left high and dry

Pedersen continued, “Corporations will continue exploration and extraction of heavy mineral sands provided they can control the cost of production and that risks, such as political instability and rising energy costs, are considered manageable.

“This also means competition for the coastal lands and the sea, between local communities and mining companies, will continue and possibly lead to further tensions,” he said.

This report will be one ingredient for Masifundise Development Trust’s Fisher People’s Tribunal in August this year, to strengthen the voices of fisherfolk and the information will also be disseminated to affected communities.

Pedersen said, “We need to get a broader and better understanding of how the mining industry works… We have to look beyond the side of extraction because this is what most people working on mining issues look at. They are not looking at the value chain and what happens to the minerals, where they go, who profits from them, and where the profit is made. They also don’t look at who the people behind the mining companies are, the shareholders etc. These companies depend on investments and capital to expand their business and if they don’t get that capital then they won’t expand, that’s what history tells us.”

Pedersen said that sand mining was a billion-dollar industry and only a tiny proportion of the profits stayed in South Africa.

“They take the minerals, ship them offshore to some other Tronox subsidiaries that process these raw materials into other commodities like titanium powder which is then sold from other countries. This means the profit from this activity is not a profit made in South Africa,” he said.

West Coast mining

A view of MSP Koekenaap (Tronox mine) in the Namakwa Sands of South Africa. (Photo: Transnational Institute)

Slow violence on the West Coast

A speak-out event was hosted by Masifundise in April 2024 where the report’s author Carsten Pedersen, Andre Cloete, and South African lead organiser of WoMin African Alliance Alexandria Hotz, detailed the report’s contents and “the slow violence of mining of the West Coast”.

During the discussion, Pedersen said ‘slow violence’ was not something that could be tracked over six months or one year. It represents the ongoing extraction of wealth and the simultaneous degradation of the environment that contributed to the erosion of livelihoods of people in coastal areas.

“When areas are grabbed by mining companies, these same areas and their resources are not available for the local population… for their livelihoods, food production, and the local economy.”

He said the resources along the coast should be utilised and developed in a way that benefits the people in the area.

“Once the territories are grabbed, they are no longer available and accessible for local communities. This closes down the opportunities for [local] economic development. There’s no sharing of all that wealth. In Lutzville, poverty has increased, crime rates have increased, and it’s not safe to walk in the streets. This is all part of the slow violence, and the result of the lack of sharing of wealth — which is, to a large extent, the responsibility of the mining companies and government,” Pederson said.

Hotz from WoMin added that these operations have an impact on the ecosystems, and ocean, then further impact the livelihoods of small-scale fishers already dependent on the ocean

In an interview with Daily Maverick, Hotz said there were multiple forms of this slow violence and there was a gendered experience to it. But she said the first experience was that people being separated from their land as indigenous people was a form of violence that unfortunately South Africans were all too familiar with.

“Because we have been in processes of dispossession, from colonialism, under apartheid, and now we are seeing new forms of land grabbing — which is violent, through mining applications and how the DMRP and other departments give away communities land without consultation or consent from communities.

“What that means is it creates a separation of communities from the land, from access to resources, the deepening of inequality and poverty in our communities and the reliance on grants because no work is coming to communities, the livelihoods have changed, they’re no longer able to fish or to grow food or rear cattle, etc,” she said.

Hotz said that women had a particular burden as they care for families mostly — from looking after fathers, sons and husbands who become ill working in mines, to holding households together and providing food, etc.

“There’s a whole cycle of violence. Last year in August in Concordia, a small town in the Northern Cape, women led a protest to defend communal land from being mined on and 29 community members were arrested,” she said.

There were also leaders of movements being assassinated for defending land, such as land activist and chairperson of the Amadiba Crisis Committee (ACC)  Sikhosiphi “Bazooka” Rhadebe, who was murdered in 2016.

Tronox and respecting its host communities

When approached for a response to specific questions by Daily Maverick, Tronox referred to their 2022 Sustainability Report. Under the framework “Respecting Our Communities”, the report describes that Tronox works in respectful partnership with indigenous communities to protect their heritage and cultural values as they manage operations located on traditional lands in Australia and South Africa.

They also claim to seek out opportunities to contribute to the local economy by supporting indigenous-owned businesses, and to protect the native lands these communities call home.

West Coast mining

(Graphic: Transnational Institute)

They say they engage in long-term relationships with traditional owner groups across all operations to determine the best ways to preserve and protect cultural heritage values and bring respectful economic development to their communities.

The report states, “Tronox operates alongside indigenous communities in South Africa, and is committed to the objectives set out in the National Development Plan, which aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. Through our Social and Labor Plans (SLPs), we have made valuable contributions towards supporting local Black-owned businesses in these communities,

“In 2022, Tronox invested R14-million (more than $817,000) in local business beneficiaries, which included 13 black-owned businesses. Seven of these were black women-owned businesses in industries like construction that align with our goals of championing greater gender diversity in traditionally male-dominated industries.”

In addition to economic development support, the report states that Tronox supports the host communities where they operate through Local Economic Development (LED) projects that include “building schools and homes, supporting STEM programmes, improving access to water and indoor plumbing, and even bringing the first veterinary clinic to one community”.

However, members of the communities along the West Coast, such as Cloete, and organisations supporting these communities, like Masifundise and WoMin, said that the ongoing extraction of minerals by these mining companies causes long-lasting social and environmental destruction.

Cloete said this was particularly the case when it comes to jobs mining companies provide, as they often only last for a few months with no sustainable economic upliftment for the locals in the communities. DM

Comments

All Comments ( 4 )

  • MT Wessels says:

    Framing this as a neocolonial bad-mining-company is simplistic and wrong. All mineral rights blown to government, who sell these rights and collect massive taxes on the activity irrespective of where the shareholders sit. Government weighs the fiscal benefit against the environmental and communal impact and makes a price. The problem is not the (very restricted) operational activities of the mining companies, but the fact that the ANC government is not plowing any of the massive income derived from mining back into these suffering communities in the form of infrastructure and medical and schools and vocational training facilities. Similarly, government sets the rules, including local community investment. By all means keep these miners honest, but activists should apply their focus on the more difficult political problem.

  • James Baxter says:

    Ordinary citizens should take matters into their own hands. Mining companies use their own money to risk it for long term returns. Most ordinary people always blame capital but they take their money to go to night clubs, and pay girl friend allowance. Why not take that money and build something instead of giving it to alcohol and other things.

  • Bob D says:

    So these companies do to the locals what SARS(State) does to all of us. We are raped of our hard earned money and screwed over many many times for little or no benefit whatsoever.

  • virginia crawford says:

    The same story repeated all over the continent: mineral resources that benefit the few and profits exported. Central to this are corrupt politicians and officials.

 
["Maverick News","South Africa","Politics"] age-of-accountability

Life under DA in Western Cape — fact-checking opposition party’s claims on governance

The Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen has thrown shade at rival parties eyeing the Western Cape throne, touting the DA's track record in the province, but a fact-check reveals some creative number crunching in their claims of employment success.
DIVE DEEPER ( 14 MIN)
  • DA leader John Steenhuisen criticizes "mercenary parties" challenging the party's leadership in the Western Cape ahead of the 2024 elections.
  • Steenhuisen argues that parties like the Patriotic Alliance, Good, and Rise Mzansi should focus on other provinces due to the DA's track record in the Western Cape.
  • Fact-check reveals DA's claim of "eight out of 10 people employed" in the Western Cape is incorrect, with an unemployment rate of 20.2% in the third quarter of 2023.
  • Claim that the Western Cape created 78.9% of all jobs in South Africa over the past five years deemed misleading, with discrepancies in the data provided.
DA Western Cape leader Tertius Simmers, DA Western Cape premier candidate Alan Winde and DA national leader John Steenhuisen in Paarl during the party's Western Cape manifesto launch on Saturday, 6 April.(Photo: Velani Ludidi)

The Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa’s opposition party, has governed the Western Cape province since 2009.

Ahead of national elections scheduled for 29 May 2024, party leader John Steenhuisen has admonished what he calls “mercenary parties” challenging the DA’s leadership in the Western Cape.

Rather than being “in opposition to the opposition”, Steenhuisen has argued, political parties such as the Patriotic Alliance, Good, and Rise Mzansi should focus their attention on other provinces. This is because the DA has a proven track record in the Western Cape, he and other party officials have claimed.

Is the party delivering on key issues such as unemployment, access to basic services and crime? In this report, we look into five claims the DA has made about its performance in the province.

Read more in Daily Maverick: 2024 elections hub

Claim: “Where we govern in the Western Cape, eight out of 10 people are employed …”

Verdict: Incorrect

The DA launched its election manifesto on 17 February. You can read our fact-check of that plan here.

In his keynote address at the launch in Pretoria, in the northern Gauteng province, Steenhuisen made several claims about the DA’s track record in the Western Cape.

On the topic of jobs, he said eight out of 10 people in the province were employed.

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) records unemployment in its quarterly labour force surveys (QLFS). The most recent survey available when the DA published its manifesto was for the third quarter of 2023, from July to September. During those months, the unemployment rate in the Western Cape was 20.2%. In other words, about two in 10 people were considered unemployed.

However, this doesn’t mean that 80% of people were “employed”. Stats SA considers a person to be unemployed if they did not have a job at the time of the survey but were actively seeking work and were available to work, or were set to start a new job at a definite date in the future.

An expanded definition of unemployment includes people who are unemployed and want to work, but have a reason for not seeking work — for example, a lack of available jobs in their area.

The labour force refers to all those employed and unemployed. By the expanded definition, 25.6% of the labour force in the Western Cape was unemployed in the third quarter of 2023. However, this still does not include all people in the Western Cape.

For the proportion of the working-age population (all people aged 15 to 64) that is employed, the absorption rate is a better indicator. This is what Dr Neva Makgetla, a senior economist at the Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies research institute, previously told Africa Check. This indicator includes people aged 15 to 64 who did paid work for at least an hour or had a job or business during the week of the survey.

In the third quarter of 2023, the absorption rate in the Western Cape was 54.7%, higher than any other province, but not as high as the DA claimed. Gauteng had the second highest absorption rate (45%) and Limpopo third (38.5%).

Data for the fourth quarter of 2023 was not available when the DA published its manifesto. However, the figures did not change much. The official unemployment rate was recorded at 20.3%, while the expanded rate was 25.6%. The absorption rate was 55.0%.

Claim: “This province is responsible for 78.9% of all jobs in our country in the last five years.”

Verdict: Misleading

At the launch of the DA’s manifesto in the Western Cape, Premier Alan Winde claimed that the province was responsible for creating 78.9% of all jobs in South Africa over the past five years.

A reader asked us to look into the claim.

Kylie Hatton, special adviser to the premier, told Africa Check that the source of the claim was Stats SA’s QLFS, “which shows that 78.9% of net jobs were created in Western Cape” since the fourth quarter of 2019.

However, the QLFS does not use the term “net jobs” and Stats SA previously told Africa Check that it does not “have an official definition for this”.

The latest edition of the QLFS covers the fourth quarter of 2023 (the months of October to December). Winde spoke about “the last five years”, which should have started with the fourth quarter of 2018, but Winde used figures from the fourth quarter of 2019 instead.

The increase in employment in the Western Cape between the fourth quarter of 2019 and 2023 was around 239,000 people. Over the same period, employment in South Africa as a whole increased by around 303,000 people. In percentage terms, the Western Cape accounts for about 78.9% of this total. But statisticians don’t use this method to compare changes in employment, and for very good reasons.

‘Not totally wrong but misleading’

Dr Ihsaan Bassier, a researcher at the South African Labour and Development Research Unit and the London School of Economics, told Africa Check that the claim was “not totally wrong, but I would classify it as misleading”.

The first issue becomes apparent when using data from 2018, five years before 2023, not from 2019 onwards. Employment increases in the Western Cape over this period were 236,000 and for South Africa, 194,000.

By the DA’s calculations, this would mean that the Western Cape produced 121.5% of the net jobs in that time. But KwaZulu-Natal province also provided more than 100% “of all jobs” during this period.

“Some provinces increased employment, some provinces decreased employment, and so a particular province can in fact ‘over explain’ national net job creation, as in this case, with over 100%,” Bassier said.

Employment also experienced major shock in 2020 as a result of the Covid pandemic. “In historical terms, the period since 2020 has been anomalous,” Bassier said. The net number of jobs created over the past five years finally turned positive in 2023 but was still very small.

Bassier calculated that for the period 2021 to 2023, which would be less affected by the pandemic, Gauteng had the highest percentage of “net national employment growth” at 23.4%, followed by the Western Cape at 22.7%.

Stats SA does not use the measure

Desiree Manamela, chief director for labour statistics at Stats SA told Africa Check that the data agency “does not use this measure used by the DA to assume that the Western Cape was responsible for 78.9% of all jobs in the country in the last five years and does not use the measure ‘% of net jobs’.”

So what can other measures tell us about the Western Cape’s employment statistics?

Between the fourth quarters of 2018 and 2023, the Western Cape did see the largest increase in employment of any province, with just over 236,000 more people employed in 2023 than in 2018. KwaZulu-Natal was a close second, with an increase of just over 208,000 people. Four provinces (Eastern Cape, Free State, North West and Gauteng) saw a decline in employment over that period.

Over the four years used by Winde, five provinces experienced a decrease in employment, with the Western Cape again recording the largest increase at 239,000 people. KwaZulu-Natal was again second with 192,000. There are, however, other ways of looking at the contribution to employment.

For example, Manamela highlighted how each province’s employment figures had changed as a percentage of people already employed in the province. This makes comparisons between provinces more intuitive, as, for example, a province that doubled its employment figures would show an employment increase of 100%, whether that meant an increase from 100 people to 200 or from 1 million to 2 million people. This means that large provinces do not dominate employment figures simply by having large populations.

From the fourth quarter of 2019 to 2023, employment in the Western Cape increased by 9.5% of its initial value. This was the highest increase of any province, followed by KwaZulu-Natal at 7.2% and Limpopo at 7%.

So the Western Cape is doing well in terms of employment, but Winde used a misleading measure to communicate this.

Claim: “Where we govern, in places like Cape Town … [we provide] the cleanest drinking water …”

Verdict: Incorrect

During the manifesto launch, Steenhuisen narrowed in on the City of Cape Town, claiming that the DA provided the cleanest drinking water there.

The 2022 general household survey (GHS), the latest available, shows that 99.3% of households in the Western Cape had access to piped or tap water. The quality of this water is another matter.

South Africa’s Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) defines water quality in terms of its “microbiological, physical, and chemical properties”.

This information is made publicly available on the National Integrated Water Information System (Niwis), an interactive dashboard maintained by the department. The latest Niwis results at the time of publishing are for samples tested between 1 March 2023 and 1 February 2024.

Prof Craig Sheridan is the director of the Centre in Water Research and Development at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg. He told Africa Check that a water quality index helped determine how good the water was in a given place because it considered the chemical and microbiological aspects of the water. “The best score on a [water quality index] would be the best water,” Sheridan said.

The Niwis measures the quality of drinking water according to six chemical and microbiological categories and provides a rating of bad, poor, good or excellent.

Neil Griffin, a research officer at Rhodes University’s Institute for Water Research in Makhanda, told Africa Check that the index was based on the South African National Standard Drinking Water Specification (Sans 241). It sets out the minimum standards for water that is safe to consume. While there were other standards, Griffin said, Sans 241 was “probably the best”.

The results of the Niwis dashboard showed that Cape Town’s water was rated as excellent in four categories, poor in one and bad in another. Water in the City of Tshwane in Gauteng, which is also governed by the DA, was rated as good in two categories, poor in two others and bad in the remaining two.

On the other hand, water in the ANC-run City of Johannesburg was rated as excellent in five categories and bad in one. Water in the eThekwini municipality, also led by the ANC, was rated excellent in four categories, good in one and bad in another.

Based on the samples tested, the City of Cape Town therefore does not have the cleanest drinking water.

Asked about Cape Town’s poor result for the “chemical: disinfectant” category, Griffin said this indicated that the city’s water had higher residual chlorine levels than Johannesburg between 1 March 2023 and 1 February 2024.

Claim: “… and the best sanitation services in the entire country.”

Verdict: Unproven

South Africa’s national treasury defines basic sanitation services as providing households with easily accessible and sustainable facilities. These are often referred to as “improved sanitation” — flush toilets connected to a public sewerage system or a septic tank, or a pit toilet with ventilation pipes (also known as a VIP toilet).

Outdated facilities that do not fall into this category include pit toilets, chemical toilets (which collect human waste in a tank and use chemicals to minimise odour) and pit latrines.

According to the 2022 GHS, the Western Cape had the highest number of households using improved sanitation, at 95.7%. This was followed by Gauteng (87.3%) and the Free State (78.7%). The Western Cape also had the lowest number of households using pit toilets (0.2%), followed by Gauteng (6%).

However, the numbers look different at the local government level — particularly in metropolitan municipalities, known as metros.

(Data source: Stats SA, 2022)

Using the total number of sanitation facilities per metro from Stats SA’s 2022 census, the City of Johannesburg (94.9%) had the highest number of individuals that made use of improved sanitation, followed by Nelson Mandela Bay (93.7%) and the City of Cape Town (93.5%).

However, in terms of households, the 2022 general household survey showed that the ANC-governed Buffalo City (97.8%) had the highest number of improved sanitation facilities out of all the metros. The DA-governed Tshwane ranked second to last in terms of access to improved sanitation.

(Source: Stats SA, 2022 general household survey)

The difference in these figures is due to the distinction between a census and a survey. While the census aims to collect data from every person in South Africa, a survey collects data from a sample of the population.

Performance should reflect changes over time

Given the different data sets available, we asked Mike Muller, former director-general of South Africa’s water affairs department and adjunct professor at Wits University’s Graduate School of Governance, to weigh in.

“Without seeing the exact statements made, it’s difficult to respond,” he said. “Improved sanitation” was a very wide definition and the type and status of sanitation adopted by a household depended on the type of housing and settlement as well as household incomes.

In addition, Muller said, “‘performance’ cannot be measured by a single data point but must reflect changes made over a given period”. He said the 2022 GHS provided some useful insights into the performance of the different provinces over the past two decades.

It showed that at the national level, access to improved sanitation rose from 61.7% in 2002 to 83.2% in 2022.

“The best ‘performing’ province was the Eastern Cape where access rose from 33.4% to 90%. Limpopo also improved significantly, from 26.9% to 63.1%,” Muller said.

While most urban provinces showed limited progress, they started from a high coverage base and experienced high levels of in-migration, Muller added.

For example, access to improved sanitation in the Western Cape increased from 92.2% in 2002 to 95.9% in 2022. In Gauteng, the figures were 88.9% and 90.5%.

According to Muller, this meant that “poor rural provinces” had seen the most improvement.

“The two developed urban provinces started with high levels of coverage which improved slightly in percentage terms over the two decades. However, to compare their ‘performance’ it would be necessary to consider the number of households served since areas with high in-migration or more households to serve have to do more simply to stay in the same place.”

What looks like a slow rate of increase in percentage terms may be masking a significant rate of increase in terms of the number of households with appropriate access.

We have therefore rated this claim unproven. That is, publicly available evidence neither proves nor disproves the claim.

Claim: “The only province in South Africa where the murder rate is plateauing or coming down is in [the Western Cape].”

Verdict: Incorrect

Launching the DA’s manifesto in the Western Cape, Premier Alan Winde claimed that his province was the only one to see a drop or stagnation in the murder rate.

The Western Cape has long been associated with high murder rates. In April 2024, news media reported that 94 people had been murdered over just three days.

The province’s murders are largely concentrated in townships on the outskirts of the city of Cape Town and in areas characterised by economic exclusion, lack of access to basic services and gang activity.

Historically, the high murder rates in the Western Cape have been attributed to a number of factors, including the proliferation of gangs, the related issue of illegal firearms, and a weakened criminal justice system.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria uses police data to calculate annual murder rates for South Africa. These take the total population into account by looking at the number of murders in a given time and place per 100,000 people. At 56, the rate in the Western Cape was higher than the national average of 45 in 2022/23.

(Source: Policy brief: Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces)

Winde told Africa Check that his claim was based on a policy brief published by the ISS. It analysed trends in murder rates at a provincial level and found the Western Cape’s murder rate had fallen by 1.4 in the five years between 2017/18 and 2022/23.

Zoom out, and the picture is less hopeful. The policy brief also compares current murder rates with those of 2011/12. Here the Western Cape increased from 43 in 2011/12 to 56 in 2022/23. The national rate also increased from 31 to 45 over the same period.

Recent murder declines and the Leap initiative

As the policy brief points out, the increase in the Western Cape was between 2011/12 and 2017/18.

In recent years the province has introduced initiatives aimed at curbing the crime epidemic, such as the Law Enforcement Advancement Plan (Leap). Created in 2020, Leap focused law enforcement resources in murder hotspots. Murder rates started to decline around this time.

Africa Check spoke to David Bruce, security researcher and author of the policy brief, to learn more. He said that statistics since 2019 did suggest that initiatives like Leap might have had “a positive impact” on murder rates in the province.

Other researchers have written about the likely link between Leap and reductions in the murder rate. In a 2022 article, Dr Jean Redpath, senior researcher at the Dullah Omar Institute at the University of the Western Cape, wrote: “The Leap intervention, involving multilevel government co-operation, provides hope that it may be possible to make a dent in SA’s crime problem.”

Bruce added that the Western Cape did not show the same pattern of increasing murder rates over this period as seen in other provinces known to have high murder rates.

For example, while the murder rate decreased slightly in the Western Cape, Gauteng, the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal have all seen significant increases in the last five years.

(Source: Policy brief: Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces)

The ‘only’ province to see a decrease?

Winde claimed that the Western Cape was the only province in South Africa to see a decrease or plateau in murder rates. But when comparing rates between 2011/12 and 2022/23 data, the Free State observed a slight decline of 2% and the Northern Cape a decline of 4%. While the decline in the Northern Cape was concentrated between 2011/12 and 2017/18, the decline in the Free State took place between 2017/18 and 2022/23. Limpopo’s murder rate declined by 0.4% between 2017/18 and 2022/23.

This means the Western Cape is not the only province to see a plateau or a decrease.

Latest data a ‘curve ball’

More recent statistics further challenge Winde’s claim. Bruce told Africa Check that the last three quarterly crime reports from the South African Police Service (SAPS) show the province’s murder rate has increased slightly, “by about 5%”.

From April to December 2023, SAPS recorded 3,404 murders (adding quarters one, two and three). In the same period of the previous year, there were 3,242 murders.

As we have written before, experts prefer to use the more finalised annual data, when available, rather than quarterly reports. But for murder, according to Bruce, the difference in these numbers is “usually less than 1%”.

The data from the last three quarterly reports presents a “curve ball”, Bruce said. While the Western Cape’s murder rate had been in decline, this is no longer the case.

With fourth-quarter results due to be released in May 2024, it remains to be seen whether the province has started to buck the trend again. DM

This report is produced as part of the work of a South African election coalition. In the run-up to the 2024 national elections, the coalition aims to ensure that the claims made by those in charge of state resources and delivering essential services are factually accurate. As voters head to the polls, it is increasingly important that they are able to make informed decisions.

First published by Africa Check.

Comments

All Comments ( 12 )

  • Dawie Bosch says:

    It’s essential to fact-check the claims made by any political party, including the DA, in the run-up to the elections. This article does an excellent job of providing detailed responses to the DA’s assertions about its governance in the Western Cape, offering valuable insights into the party’s performance.
    To address the points raised by the dismissive earlier comments:
    A: While some may consider the fact-checking “petty” or “nit-picking,” it’s crucial to ensure that all claims are accurate. Even small inaccuracies should not be overlooked because they can distort the overall picture. Fact-checking helps hold politicians accountable, no matter which party they represent.
    B: It’s widely recognized that the Western Cape is comparatively well-managed, but that doesn’t mean the DA should receive a free pass on inaccuracies. Accountability and transparency are vital in any functioning democracy. This article reinforces that principle, ensuring that voters are informed with facts rather than just rhetoric.
    C: It’s also fair to scrutinize the DA’s performance and claims, just as it would be for any other party. While the Western Cape is often touted as an example of good governance, this report isn’t dismissing that. Instead, it provides a nuanced view of how much progress has been made and where there’s still room for improvement.
    Ultimately, this fact-check helps voters assess the DA’s track record with a clearer understanding. It’s not about finding holes in the DA but about promoting accuracy and transparency for all parties involved in the upcoming elections

  • Christopher Bedford says:

    Overall a more than pedantic article, but on balance the DA is doing an order of magnitude better job here than the ANC is doing anywhere else, bar none. Only one item stood out for me though:
    “… and the best sanitation services in the entire country.”

    Well maybe that’s not entirely true Mr Winde, I don’t think any other city pumps as much raw sewage straight into the sea as Cape Town does. Time to address this, with our staggeringly high rates, hmm?

  • J B says:

    … and yet, for someone who lives in Johannesburg, visiting my friends is increasingly about reaching for a mouse to book a flight to the Western Cape than reaching for my car keys.

  • Denise Smit says:

    Trying very hard to find holes in the DA, but we are not dumb and blind and deaf as you think you are. Do this for any place north of Plettenberg Bay please for the next 8 days

  • Paul McNaughton says:

    Entirely agree with Etienne. This article is a waste of time. No one cares if the claims made are 1 0r 2 percentage points out – for goodness sake, everyone knows that whilst it is not perfect the Western Cape is run and administered better than any other province by a country mile. Make a difference and support competent people who do a good job.

  • Congratulations to the author of this article. You are an excellent example of the problem in this country. You choose to be petty and nitpick instead of focusing on the real elephant in the room. While people like yourself continue to sabotage the obviously much better abled competition, so that your decaying masters can remain on the gravy train.

 
["Maverick News","Politics","South Africa"] age-of-accountability

MK founder asks IEC to ‘urgently remove’ Jacob Zuma from the party’s list of candidates

The founder of the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, Jabulani Khumalo, has asked the IEC to remove former president Jacob Zuma from their its parliamentary candidate lineup, citing "fraudulent and illegal manoeuvres".
DIVE DEEPER ( 5 MIN)
  • Founder of uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, Jabulani Khumalo, asks IEC to remove Zuma as party face and from candidate list.
  • Khumalo accuses Zuma of fraudulent actions, places him on precautionary suspension pending disciplinary proceedings.
  • Expulsion of party leaders reveals instability in MK, alleged secret meetings with ANC and fundraising discrepancies.
  • Khumalo's move precedes Constitutional Court appeal against Zuma's candidacy, IEC warns of disputed electoral outcome if Zuma stands.
Jabulani Khumalo, Jacob Zuma and Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla announce the formation of the uMkhonto Wesizwe party in Soweto on 16 December 2023. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Kim Ludbrook)

The founder of the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, Jabulani Khumalo, has asked the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) to remove former president Jacob Zuma as the face of the party and from its list of parliamentary candidates. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024 – All your questions answered

In a letter dated 5 May, Khumalo requested that the IEC urgently remove Zuma’s name as the “face” of the MK party, and that he also be “immediately removed” as the president of the party. 

“He [Zuma] occupies both positions through fraudulent and illegal manoeuvres,” Khumalo wrote. 

He has also written to Zuma, in a letter also dated 5 May, telling him he has been placed on “precautionary suspension” for allegedly committing “several acts of misconduct in relation to the activities” of the MK party. 

“These have brought the party into disrepute, and caused confusion within the broader public and the membership of the MKP. Specifically, you have purported to suspend me as the president of the party without following the procedures prescribed by the constitution of the party,” Khumalo wrote. 

He added that Zuma had been placed on precautionary suspension, pending disciplinary proceedings being brought against him in line with the constitution of the MK party. 

Khumalo, who registered the MK party with the IEC in September 2023, was expelled from the party on 26 April, along with four other party leaders. The purge exposed the instability in the fledgling party, at a time when polls showed its support was growing – with Ipsos predicting MK could receive 8.4% of the vote on 29 May. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: 2024 elections

In a statement announcing the leaders’ expulsion, MK said that a National Leadership Core meeting had revealed that the party had been infiltrated by external forces who sought to “destabilise” it.

The party kept mum on the reasons for the purge, but claimed it was in the interest of “patriotic South Africans that want to see change”.  

MK ZumaFormer president Jacob Zuma, flanked by Jabulani Khumalo, speaks about his political future at a press conference in Orlando East, Soweto, on 16 December 2023. (Photo: Reuters /Shiraaz Mohamed)

In a statement issued just before 1pm on Tuesday, the IEC confirmed receipt of Khumalo’s letter. However, it said Zuma was the registered leader of the MK party since 10 April.

“The commission reiterates its stance that it does not involve itself in internal affairs of political parties. Additionally, the commission only acts on instruction of the registered leader of the party. In the present case, Mr Jacob Zuma is the registered leader of MK Party. This has been so since 10 April 2024,” it said.

Following the leaders’ expulsion, the Sunday Times reported on allegations that Khumalo had held secret meetings with the ANC behind Zuma’s back, and that he had been raising funds for the party, but those funds never reached its coffers.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Expulsions from MK party point to deep instability and mistrust

Khumalo was second on the party’s candidate list for the National Assembly, behind Zuma who was first on the list. 

The move by Khumalo comes days before the Constitutional Court is set to hear, on 10 May 2024, an appeal by the IEC against the Electoral Court’s decision to allow Zuma to stand as a candidate for the MK party. The IEC had initially barred Zuma from appearing on the ballot – considering he was convicted and sentenced to 15 months in prison for contempt of court for refusing to appear before the State Capture Commission in 2021 – but the Electoral Court reversed this, ruling he could stand for office.

Read more in Daily Maverick: The unstoppable impunities of being Jacob Zuma — with a lot of help from the ANC

On 3 May, Zuma submitted notice that he intends to file a counter-application to the IEC case, requesting the recusal of six Constitutional Court judges who were involved in his contempt of court case. 

The IEC has, in court papers filed on Monday, stated there is “substantial risk of a disputed electoral outcome” in the elections if Zuma is allowed to stand, News24 reported.  

‘Zuma brought MK into disrepute’

In his letter to the IEC, Khumalo said he was responsible for the registration of the MK party, while Zuma merely proposed the party’s name and helped to raise funds for its registration.  

“At all times, it was always understood that Mr Zuma is not a member of MKP, but would assist it in the campaign. In fact, when he announced his decision to vote and campaign for MKP on 16 December 2023, he made it clear he would remain a member of the ANC,” Khumalo said. 

He said Zuma is not a member of the MK party’s executive committee. 

On 23 April, Khumalo said he was called to a meeting with individuals who were not on the party’s national executive committee but were active in the MK party. According to Khumalo, at the meeting, Zuma announced that Khumalo had been removed as president of the party, and that he would henceforth be the president. 

“During that meeting a fraudulent letter was prepared for transmission to the Electoral Commission announcing that I would no longer be on the list of candidates and that Mr Zuma would be the face and president of MKP.

“I sent a letter to the Electoral Commission, in which I confirmed that Mr Zuma would be the face of the party. At no stage did I confirm that Mr Zuma would be the president of the party,” Khumalo wrote in the letter. 

According to Khumalo, Zuma’s conduct has brought the party into “disrepute”. Zuma had “acted contrary to the terms of the constitution of the party”, by purporting to remove Khumalo as party leader without following any procedures.

Khumalo also claimed that it had been “widely discussed” within the MK party that after the elections “certain individuals, including an active member and leader of an opposition party” would take over as the party’s president. 

Khumalo’s letter to the IEC comes amid allegations of signature forgery by the MK party, revealed by City Press last week. Police have said they are investigating the claims that the party forged thousands of signatures to register for the elections.  

Daily Maverick contacted Khumalo for comment, but he declined to speak to the media, saying he was not taking any interviews for now. 

Daily Maverick asked MK party spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndhlela for comment but did not receive a response by the time of publication. DM

Comments

All Comments ( 15 )

  • Hidden Name says:

    Well, that happened much sooner than I expected it to. MK Implosion…they didnt even make it to the elections before starting to fall apart – I feel like this should be a record of some sort.

  • Peter Merrington says:

    What a farce. I feel a satirical novel coming on. But I suspect that it might be objectionable or not what we call politically correct. May the Cosmos carry us through this perpetual Mzantsi madness with courage and good grace. I grant that I (wh0 once marched, with banners, with the United Democratic Front) am now a mere and anxious WASP suburbanite….

  • James Baxter says:

    I look up to former president Zuma. Here me my president when I say you have inspired me to learn from you in ways that I could not have learnt had you not been president or a political leader. Your struggle has shaped my outlook on life. The battles you have fought are so mind boggling and I don’t have words Mr president. I will not hide the fact that I am a staunch Mbeki fanatic. The Polokwane conference was a nightmare for me personally and I was devastated by your defeat of president Mbeki. But I am just saying, as an ordinary guy, I am relatively informed, considering the size of my cranium. So, I am baffled by the battles you find yourself involved. You fought against white domination, you fought against Mbekis domination, you fought against many a domination I cannot even mention because they are so many, not to mention this latest one with Mr Jabulne. Thank you for shaping my philosophy of myself, you have touched a potential candidate for the building of this nation of SA. But currently I am pursuing a woman, because I can’t lead SA before I lead a woman. A leader has to lead his wife first, before he can lead a nation, a leader who has not conquered a woman for the purposes of marriage and family planning is definitely not ditto lead the nation. I am a bachelor, with plans to get a woman who is going to be a Winnie, since I want to be the next Mandela. I know that I will not be the next Mandela, because Mandela was sent by A higher being who is beyond my imagination

  • Laetitia Kaula

  • Robert Morgan says:

    Why hasn’t Duduzile been brought to book for her despicable behaviour concerning the July 2021 riots? Her father should still be behind bars and his boss-eyed son, Duduzane needs careful scrutiny and a lifestyle audit. The whole Zuma tribe needs to be flushed away, never to be heard of again.

  • No comment.

  • Middle aged Mike says:

    Imagine what a bunch of wallies we look like to outside observers. Democracy has been well and truly wasted on SA.

  • Rae Earl says:

    The MKP is a rag tag bundle 0f corrupt and aimless misfits, mostly leftovers from the rotting carcase of the ANC. How on earth can South Africans even consider giving either of these parties the time of day. MKP is imploding and the ANC is dead in the water. All that is left to save us is the Multi Party Charter which has a good membership of competent politicians who are actually capable of pulling SA out of the pit toilet made by the ANC and EFF with MKP waiting in the wings to further the destruction of our country. Vote for the parties in the MPC if you want to survive.

  • Martin Botha says:

    “Zuma’s conduct has brought the party into disrepute” The greatest clown in our political history.

  • None

  • Random Comment says:

    If anyone spots an honest, competent politician before 29 May, please let us know.

  • Kenneth FAKUDE says:

    There must really be a God somewhere, this guy wants to save the constitutional court valuable time.

 
["Maverick News","South Africa","Business Maverick","Maverick Citizen"] age-of-accountability safety-and-belonging

‘I want my boy out of there’ — agonising vigil for families of those trapped in George building rubble

A father's unwavering determination to see his son alive amid the rubble of a collapsed building in George, as families cling to hope and pray for their loved ones, while rescue efforts continue into the night.
DIVE DEEPER ( 5 MIN)
  • Deon Safers waits outside George Civic Centre for his son, Delvin, missing in building collapse.
  • Families of missing workers wrap up in blankets, wait anxiously for news.
  • Delvin Safers, trapped in rubble, communicates with family until phone battery dies.
  • Recovery efforts to continue overnight as families seek information on missing loved ones.
A woman comforts a family member near the site where rescuers search for construction workers trapped under a building that collapsed in George. (Photo: Reuters / Esa Alexander)

‘I will wait here until my son comes out,” said Deon Safers, the father of Delvin Safers, one of the dozens of workers missing in the rubble of a building that collapsed in George on Monday. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: Six dead and 48 missing in devastating George building collapse

“I’m not going home, I’m going nowhere. I don’t even want to eat. I want my boy out of there and I must pray for him and I must hope he will get out of there,” Safers said on Tuesday as he sat outside the George Civic Centre, opposite the remains of the building.  

george building collapse

Deon Safers’ 29-year-old son, Delvin, was working as an electrician at 75 Victoria Street, George, when the building collapsed. Safers had been waiting for more than 24 hours for his son’s rescue. (Photo: Velani Ludidi)

Evening was falling on the second day of rescue efforts for those trapped in the rubble. All around Safers, members of the families of those missing in the rubble waited, wrapped in donated blankets. Many had been there since the early hours of the morning.

Delvin Safers (29) had been working as an electrician at the construction site when the building collapsed.  

“Since yesterday [Monday], from 5.30pm, we communicated with him because he had his cellphone with him. He communicated every hour, every second hour with us to save his battery. Now and then he switched his phone off,” his father said.

“Last night at about 2.15am, his phone went to 10% and he switched his phone off, and this morning at 5.30am he sent a message to his cousin. He said he’s okay, he’s positive but he’s tired and his back is sore and his legs are sore.”

The last message Delvin Safers sent was received by his girlfriend at 3.05pm on Tuesday. He told her he was in a lot of pain.

“But we as his family [and] I as his father are very positive. My son will get out there alive. We pray with him and I know he prays with us there inside. I believe he’s a strong boy and I believe he’s a hero because of the fight from yesterday. He can’t use his one arm where he is, he can’t use his legs but he is strong mentally. So, I salute my boy there where he is and I believe he will get out of that rubble,” Safers said.

george building collapse

Rescue personnel clear debris to rescue trapped workers at the collapsed building on Victoria Street in George. (Photo: Tamsin Metelerkamp)

“It doesn’t matter when he gets out there — I will wait here until my son comes out. And I will thank each and every member here in disaster management for every effort they put in to rescue my son and all his colleagues.”

‘Very devastated’

Earlier on Tuesday, Daily Maverick spoke with Bright Kayuni, who was at the George Civic Centre seeking news of his nephew’s wife, Tiwonge Mhango. She had only started working at the building site the previous Thursday, as a cleaner. She and two friends of Kayuni’s family who were also working there have not been heard from since the collapse.

“At the moment, we are very devastated with the news because we can’t think straight. My nephew is also trying to help there on the side, just trying to find his wife… We don’t know what to do,” Kayuni said.

“[My nephew is] trying to take away the rubble and call the name of his wife so that he can be able to locate her… He has been there since last night.”

Kayuni said it has been challenging to get information about who had been rescued and where they could be found. The family visited the local hospital but were told that they needed to approach the municipality for updates.

george building collapse

Rescue personnel work to clear debris and rescue trapped workers at the collapsed building on Victoria Street in George. (Photo: Tamsin Metelerkamp)

“We came to the municipality. They also said they can’t give us the full report at the moment because they are just busy rescuing the people and they are also busy trying to treat the people that have been rescued. That’s the only information that we got,” he said.

“We need to know where our family [members] are… We need their names. If they’re in the hospitals … show us so that we can identify them. But it has been very difficult for us.”

48 people still missing

More than 200 emergency services personnel were continuing rescue efforts at the site as of 7.40pm on Tuesday as the operation neared the 30-hour mark. Seven of the 39 people removed from the rubble were dead and 48 were still missing.

Gift of the Givers spokesperson Mario Ferreira told Daily Maverick that the rescue efforts would not be affected by darkness. “We will be on-site as long as it takes. At this stage, I think the three-day time period is optimistic, especially if you look at the wreckage. But we’re aiming for the three days,” Ferreira said.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Western Cape’s chief director of disaster management services, Colin Deiner, said that the international standard for the length of this type of rescue effort was three days.

Gift of the Givers members have been providing support for family members of those caught in the collapse. 

“We felt there was a lack of interaction with the families so we personally went and spoke to the families over there, just to get them to keep their hopes up. We’ve supplied them with some sanitary parcels, some toiletries, some blankets,” Ferreira said.

Company named

The executive mayor of George, Leon van Wyk, named the developer of the collapsed five-storey building as the Neo Trend Group. However, on the company’s website, it is named Neo Victoria and Neo Trend Group is listed as part of the marketing team. 

george building collapse

A drone view of the scene of a building collapse where several construction workers are thought to be trapped in George. Photo: Reuters / Shafiek Tassiem

Previously, Daily Maverick reported that the mayor said he was unaware of the developers, engineers and contractors responsible for the site, even though his municipality had approved their plans.

“The plans [for the building] were submitted on 22 December 2022 … and were approved by the municipality on 6 July 2023,” Van Wyk said. He added that the developer had hired a professional team, which included contractors, surveyors and engineers. 

“The municipality would then come back when the building is completed and issue an occupancy certificate for the building to be occupied.” 

Theuns Kruger, the director of Liatel Developments, the contracted builder of the collapsed building, told the George Herald that they were committed to cooperating with authorities to determine the cause of the disaster.

“We are coordinating closely with emergency responders and authorities to provide support and resources for the rescue operations. We are fully committed to cooperating with the authorities to determine the cause of this incident. We will ensure that a thorough investigation is conducted to understand what led to the collapse.

“We at Liatel are deeply saddened by the events that have unfolded in George. Our hearts go out to all those impacted by this tragedy, and we extend our sincerest sympathy to the victims and their families.” DM

This  article was updated on Wednesday at 07.55am.

Comments

All Comments ( 9 )

  • Middle aged Mike says:

    What an absolute horror. My thoughts are with those trapped and their families.

  • Donald bemax says:

    Tragedy of note..will anybody check the tender awarded and compliance to material specifications. ?

  • Shaleen du Rand says:

    To the people of George we in Namibia are praying for those still trapped in the rubble, and for the families. Thank you also for the caring people.
    Be Strong

  • William Collins says:

    After all the recent discussion regarding the western cape construction mafia, was the any involvement of these criminals in this construction. Did the Civil engineer have a gun pointing in his direction?

  • Steve Price says:

    Has the central government offered any help?

  • Kenneth FAKUDE says:

    So heart wrenching, they are just trying to earn an honest living.

 
["Business Maverick","Our Burning Planet"] a-sustainable-world

Warm, dry winter still on the cards for SA, rains of La Niña beckon

South Africa's upcoming weather forecast predicts drier and warmer conditions, with above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall expected, posing challenges for water supply and agriculture, while the fading El Niño gives way to the emergence of La Niña in the springtime.
DIVE DEEPER ( 3 MIN)
  • Multi-model rainfall forecast predicts below-normal rainfall for most of South Africa in upcoming months, with exceptions in KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, and Mpumalanga.
  • Minimum and maximum temperatures expected to be above normal nationwide during forecast period.
  • Drier and warmer winter anticipated on Highveld and interior due to lingering effects of El Niño-induced drought.
  • La Niña forecast to emerge in spring, potentially affecting weather patterns in the region.
Workers load sugar cane on to a truck in a field at a farm in Driekoppies, Mpumalanga. (Photo: Guillem Sartorio / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

‘The… multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of the country during May-Jun-Jul (MJJ), Jun-Jul-Aug and Jul-Aug-Sep, except for some parts over KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga for MJJ where above-normal rainfall is expected,” says the latest Climate Watch, which looks five months ahead. 

“Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period,” it adds.

Winter is the dry season on the Highveld and much of the interior of the country, but it looks to be both drier and warmer than usual as the legacy of the drought unleashed by El Niño lingers.

“The anticipated below-normal rainfall coupled with above-normal temperatures are likely to increase water losses and reduce water storage levels through evapotranspiration and drought, among other factors, particularly in parts of the North West, Free State and Limpopo where a number of settlements are experiencing ongoing drought,” the Climate Watch says.

The SA Weather Service’s observations still see a fading El Niño in play, while other international forecasters such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology say it is now over and that what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently in neutral territory.

This is a bit academic for South Africans as El Niño retracts its claws in this region at this time of the year anyway.

“El Niño does not have an effect on our weather this time of the year, so whether or not it is dying or still going is irrelevant,” Willem Landman, a professor of meteorology at the University of Pretoria, told Daily Maverick

More importantly, Landman’s forecast sees La Niña emerging towards springtime in these parts.

This is in line with most international forecasts, some of which see La Niña lifting off by July. 

El Niño, triggered by a warming of surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, generally brings drought to southern Africa. The last one devastated the region’s staple maize harvest this year, among other impacts. 

Read more in Daily Maverick: South Africa’s neighbours bear the brunt of dry weather pattern

But some sectors, such as citrus, have escaped relatively unscathed, thanks in part to good moisture levels last spring which were a legacy of the previous prolonged La Niña event.

Read more in Daily Maverick: South African citrus farmers have reason to be upbeat after weathering El Niño 

La Niña arises when surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific cool, and its return will be welcome – provided the possible downpours don’t get too intense. 

Too much rain makes no grain and both weather patterns are becoming more extreme because of human-caused climate change.

The potential for too much rain is a concern in the early winter season in parts of KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga, which are expected to be unseasonably wet.

“There is an increased risk of waterlogging in areas receiving excessive rainfall, which can cause crop damage,” the Climate Watch warns.

Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall during the wet winter season in the southwestern parts of South Africa also poses challenges for agriculture as well as wider water supplies. 

On a brighter note, the milder winter should help Eskom to keep the lights on during the season of peak household demand and means South Africans won’t have to bundle up so much. 

The weather is often a double-edged sword, but at least El Niño has now been blunted. DM

Comments

All Comments ( 0 )

 
["DM168","South Africa","Our Burning Planet"] a-sustainable-world

Under-threat Cape wild horses returned to their wetland home

Wild horse volunteers led by Leanne Dryburgh successfully relocate a group of free-roaming horses back to their original wetland home near the Bot River estuary, ensuring their safety and preservation in the face of increasing development threats.
DIVE DEEPER ( 5 MIN)
  • Leanne Dryburgh and her team successfully return group of wild horses to their original wetland home near Bot River estuary in the Western Cape, ensuring their safety and well-being.
  • Operation involved experienced team with patience, compassion, and understanding of horse dynamics to minimize stress during relocation.
  • Fisherhaven wild horses reunited with Rooisand family, away from human interference, to continue free-roaming legacy.
  • Challenges ahead include fixing fences, installing cattle grid, and educating public on importance of admiring horses from a distance to protect their habitat.
Their wild legacy lives on. (Photo: Leanne Dryburgh)

It’s been an incredible journey with many anxious moments, but they are home – and they are safe.

That is the heartwarming news from Leanne Dryburgh and her team of wild horse volunteers. They have managed to return a group of free-roaming horses from an area near Hermanus to their original wetland home near the Bot River estuary in the Western Cape and have been keeping a watch over them since their arrival.

A few weeks ago, Daily Maverick highlighted the threats faced by this particular group of wild horses and the urgent need to move them. Since then the interest in their well-being has gone viral.

“We knew that it was not going to be an easy operation and that the stress factor was going to be an issue when it came to loading the horses,” Dryburgh explained. “But we have a very experienced team. For something like this you need patience, compassion, skill, an understanding of the herds and their dynamics and, above all, cool heads!”

On 18 February at 7am the Fisherhaven herd was released back to its original home and back to safety.

“It took our very small team (with our ever-devoted husbands) the best part of a night and a day… to move them. After many months of planning, it was amazingly seamless. The horses arrived calmly and without any injuries. It was almost as if they knew we were helping them.”

Their destination was a stretch of deserted privately owned land in the Bot River area as well as part of the Rooisand Nature Reserve belonging to CapeNature.

“As in any grouping of wild animals there will be intermingling between the Fisherhaven and Rooisand herds,” said Dryburgh. Young stallions aged about four will be kicked out of one herd and go to another in search of fillies and mares, and chase away the older stallions. We keep a record of these movements and the new progeny, which is an important part of the monitoring process, but always from a distance.”

The Fisherhaven wild horses were a breakaway group from the original Rooisand herd of wild horses that have roamed freely in a protected area on the Bot River estuary for more than a century.

With the recent acceleration of development in the Hermanus area, the small group needed to be returned to its Rooisand family of 28 horses as quickly and safely as possible.

wild horses

It took the small team the best part of a night and a day to move the herd, said Leanne Dryburgh. (Photo: Leanne Dryburgh)

Said Dryburgh: “They are currently roaming right where we hoped they would, away from humans so they can settle into the environment and hopefully start a new chapter in their lives. The mission of our team has never wavered – to keep these magnificent creatures free-roaming and at a respectful distance from humans. They have proved that they survive incredibly well on their own – in their vlei. We need to keep it that way. They are a national treasure.”

Through the years there have been many committed volunteers who have kept eyes on the herds and reported anything untoward. This, says Dryburgh, has been vital in preserving and protecting their habitat, and helping to ensure that they are kept free-roaming for future generations.

“There is also a group of ‘patrollers’. These are the ‘feet on the ground’ who respond at any time of the day or night. Every single person who reports watches from a distance, emphasising the importance of noninterference, which plays an important role in their survival.”

It won’t be an easy task meeting all the challenges that come with protecting the wild horses, she says.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Free-roaming wild horses in severe danger as habitat shrinks, traffic accidents rise

“We need to fix fences, put in a cattle grid and put up more signage to educate people, but we remain positive that we will achieve all our goals. The fences and cattle grid will help ensure their safety, but the education is the most important. People really need to admire from a distance.”

Although the proceeds from Dryburgh’s annual calendar sales raise enough money for basic signs and medicines from the vets (the vets donate their time and never hesitate to come when necessary), this move, she admits, was a mammoth undertaking that came at great expense. The move cost R65,000, and Dryburgh managed to raise R66,000.

It takes 70 days for animals to be rewilded. It is more than 70 days since Daily Maverick first highlighted the plight of the Fisherhaven horses. “They haven’t tried to move back,” she says. “I think we can safely say their wild heritage has been restored.”

wild horses

Photo: Leanne Dryburgh

Education

Educating is the most important part of their mission.

  • Look – don’t touch. If they approach you out of curiosity, clap your hands and walk away;
  • Keep a distance of at least 50m. Animals have a comfort circle. When you enter their space, the dynamics change and they no longer behave naturally;
  • Do not feed them. They do not need any other food than what they graze on naturally; and
  • Let them roam free! Help us to help them.

The most disturbing thing Dryburgh has recently seen, and is seeing more and more of, is people trying to get close to the wild horses. There are two huge problems with this, she says. First, if the herd is being tamed, it becomes more vulnerable. Second, the herd dynamics can change in a heartbeat, and every animal in that herd reacts to the lead stallion or lead mare. If people are in the way, say sitting on the ground, it could make them vulnerable.

Ideas

  • Inclusive buy-in from organisations like the Southern African Historical Society;
  • More signs and volunteers to educate and raise importance on the ground; and
  • Raised platforms, similar to those in Kirstenbosch, where people can view the horses without interfering with them.

About Dryburgh

As a young girl she says she spent hours in her dad’s darkroom, watching the images magically appearing and dreaming of becoming a photographer.

“I spent most of my youth swooning over Life and National Geographic magazines. In 1989 my dream became a reality when I was accepted to study a three-year diploma in photography in Durban… My camera is an extension of my core, my being.”

Dryburgh began her career as a wildlife photographer in the Okavango Delta of Botswana, and sold those images to help support and create awareness for the Endangered Wildlife Trust.

She currently lives with her photographer husband Peter Hassall in a small wooden home under an old milkwood tree on the Bot River estuary in the Western Cape. 

“I became aware of the wild horses when I moved to the Overberg in 2013, and in 2016, on a long walk near our home, we stumbled across a lone injured stallion. I got hold of the ‘horse watchers’ and learnt that it was Brassy, who had separated himself from the herd to heal after challenging another stallion. I joined the horse watch group, and have been involved ever since.”

Dryburgh is in the process of producing a book on the Rooisand wild horses. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.

 

Comments

All Comments ( 8 )

  • Ritey roo roo says:

    This is what I want to read, thank you!

  • Bhekinkosi Madela says:

    Nice to learn that we have our own brumbies in SA. Thanks, DM.

  • Peter Holmes says:

    I have just re-read Roy Campbell’s Horses on the Camargue for the first time in 60 years. Magnicent. In light of this article by Liz Clarke, and if you love horses, do yourself a favour and read it.

  • Brian Hutton says:

    Another good news story, much appreciated.

  • Tony Reilly says:

    How about some context ? Map of the area ? How many horses ?

  • Jane Crankshaw says:

    A lovely heart-warming story amongst the normal daily “bad news” reads! Thank you.

  • Louise Wilkins says:

    Very inspiring. Such a change to read an article with so much positivity.

  • jcdville stormers says:

    Great work

 

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