The ANC lost a seemingly safe seat to the IFP in Newcastle in a by-election on 14 February. This sounds like a reliable marker of future trends as South Africa gears up for the highly anticipated 2024 general election. All eyes are on KwaZulu-Natal, where the political landscape resembles a veritable battlefield. Amid the chaos and uncertainty, the ANC finds itself besieged on many fronts, facing formidable internal and external challenges.
At the forefront of this political circus lurks the enigmatic shadow of Jacob Zuma, once a towering patriarch but now reduced to a spoiler element leading a rag-tag bunch of misfits in the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) Party. With an emotional and tribally flavoured following, he has an uncanny knack of stirring up his comrades in the ANC.
Zuma poses a threat to the ANC’s dominance in the region, with the prospect that the MK Party will pick up a few seats, largely through the proportional representation list system. His persistent populist rhetoric strikes a chord with an ANC faction that has unhappily languished on the fringes as the fruits of patronage dried up after Zuma’s exit from the presidency.
MK is emboldened after splitting the ANC vote in the Newcastle by-election, allowing the IFP to slip through.
But Zuma is not the only contender vying for power in KwaZulu-Natal. Julius Malema’s EFF also looms large on the political horizon, albeit with less intensity than the MK Party. Nevertheless, the EFF’s unfiltered brand of pseudo-radical politics and its apparent focus on economic emancipation have gained traction among marginalised communities, further eroding the ANC’s traditional support base.
Whether the youngsters who attend its rallies have the patience to stand in the horrendously inefficient Home Affairs queues to get an ID to enable them to vote is anybody’s guess. There’s ample research to show that young people, especially in the 18-to-25 age category, don’t turn up on election day.
Adding to the ANC’s woes is the internal turmoil in its ranks. The provincial executive committee, plagued by infighting and power struggles, has failed to find solid ground since the ousting of former chairperson and premier Sihle Zikalala in 2022.
His removal, intended to bring about change and rejuvenate the party, has instead resulted in a loss of invaluable organisational and mobilisation experience, leaving the ANC vulnerable and disjointed.
Siboniso Duma, the current chairperson of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, found himself thrust into the leadership. He is grappling with the daunting task of holding the party together amid mounting challenges.
But his leadership has been marred by a series of missteps and controversies as he lurches from one foot-in-mouth crisis to another. His inability to provide coherent direction or effectively fend off the ANC’s adversaries must surely be grounds to question his ability to lead.
Meanwhile, the resurgent IFP and the DA are capitalising on the ANC’s weaknesses, positioning themselves as viable alternatives for disillusioned voters.
The IFP, once a dominant force in KwaZulu-Natal politics, has staged a remarkable comeback, tapping into nostalgia and regional pride to garner support. Similarly, the DA’s carefully crafted illusion of accountability, good governance and economic prosperity resonates with urban voters who are hardly likely to question the party’s internal racial dynamics or capacity to govern.
As the countdown to the general election ticks away, the political landscape in KwaZulu-Natal remains fraught with uncertainty and volatility. The ANC, which was once the undisputed ruling party, now finds itself locked in a bitter struggle to make the 50% threshold while beset by internal strife and external threats.
With the MK Party, the EFF and the resurgent IFP and DA all vying for a chunk of the pie, the outcome of the election hangs in the balance, with potentially far-reaching implications for the country’s trajectory.
Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024 Knowledge Base
Read more in Daily Maverick: 2024 elections
In this climate of open warfare, characterised by intense competition and relentless power struggles, the people of KwaZulu-Natal stand confused at the crossroads. The choices they make at the ballot box may well shape the destiny of the province and the nation as a whole. Will they stick with the ANC, despite its shortcomings and internal divisions, or will they gamble with charting a new, uncertain course?
Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: The battle for KwaZulu-Natal is at fever pitch and the stakes have never been higher. DM
This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R29.
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What a load of nonsense when you refer to the DA (carefully crafted illusion etc.)- it just shows how myopic, clueless and biased you are, as you do when anything to do with the West or Israel is involved as well. I suppose an open mind is difficult for even a so-called academic. Visit the WC Cape and see for yourself instead of making idiotic judgements from afar. The WC functions, unlike the rest of the country where the anc and eff rule, or rather misrule. That is why there is huge semigration to CT and the WC from Gauteng and Natal from those who can, and even those who can’t but still do as there is a better life for all here. I am not an blind DA supporter but frankly, there is no other party to vote for and can only hope that the DA and like-minded parties triumph in May. That is SA only and best hope!!
It’s typical of DM writers these days
Hahaha … hahaha ! The unending hubris .
Still sore Redwood?
Hardly a balanced article….maybe KZN does its own thing, outside national government
What is it with the DM and the DA? Not even trying to hide its contempt. Do better. If so many people are noticing it there is clearly an issue. At least make an attempt at being impartial. But it’s probably too late by now anyway. And you used to credible.
“the DA’s carefully crafted illusion of accountability, good governance and economic prosperity resonates with urban voters who are hardly likely to question the party’s internal racial dynamics or capacity to govern”
Seriously? Pls do give us a proper breakdown of all positions in the DA by race, then pls compare it to ANC or EFF and then tell us again about racial representation.
The DAs “accountability, good governance and economic prosperity “, at least compared to any other party by a thousand miles is pretty much proven.
“the DA’s carefully crafted illusion of accountability, good governance and economic prosperity resonates with urban voters who are hardly likely to question the party’s internal racial dynamics or capacity to govern.”
By the sound of the comments, the writer struck a chord! DA is mentioned only 3 times, 1 negative comment. No criticism or critical analysis of the DA is allowed. This is despite objective facts; the lived experiences of those in townships and or homeless in WC, despite racial incidents e.g., involving a celebrity reported in the news, despite Zille et al., despite mafias, despite the number of leaders/members who’ve left the DA citing the very issues.
Yes the ANC has an abysmal track record. Yes the IFP and EFF have not much to show. Yes the other parties are pointless. Some are promising but have not had a chance to create a resume.
Yes the DA appears to have a good track record. It governs a smaller more educated, mainly employed, mainly white population, some of whom want to remove WC from the rest of SA. Speaks volumes!
When seeking voters and you want the SA to rule SA, openness to criticism and critique are key. It increases trust. Many voters are seeking a home and watching and listening to the said unsaid. Defensiveness is your enemy.
Bovine Manure
Can you name any party that has sufficient potential leaders to be able to govern effectively? Which party would you trust to perform best in growing the economy, employment? Which party would you rate as most likely to reduce corruption and improve service delivery across all public sectors? Please enlighten me. Isn’t that your job?