ROAD TO 2024 ELECTIONS
ANC support slips, new MK Party makes inroads, EFF backing slumps – Ipsos poll
An EFF and MK Party poster hang on a telephone pole outside Churchill in the Northern Cape. (Photo: Victoria O’Regan)
Voter support for South Africa’s ruling African National Congress has slipped further ahead of next month’s national election, but the biggest loser was the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters party, according to an opinion poll conducted by Ipsos.
The ANC has the support of 40.2% of voters, Ipsos said in a report released on Friday. That compares with 40.5% in a survey published on 6 February and 43% in October.
In the last election in 2019, the ANC garnered 57.5% of the vote.
Ipsos’s poll found support for the main opposition Democratic Alliance strengthening slightly to 21.9%, from 20.5% in February.
It also showed that the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe Party backed by former President Jacob Zuma is drawing support from the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters. Ipsos placed the EFF at 11.5%, down from 19.6% in February, and the so-called MKP at 8.4%. DM/Bloomberg
It is scary that one in five South Africans support MK and EFF. That support should be looney fringe levels of one in twenty.
It is more important for all South Africans who want change and accountable governance, to vote now than ever.
The ANC won’t get 50%, but was is within reach is ANC + EFF below 50%.
Realistically the ANC will still be part of a government, as the Multi Party Alliance will not get 50% on their own. That is not ideal but a step in the right direction.
Let’s hope and pray the reasonable parties can work together and put South Africa first. Voters will have to do their part, as 1% this side or that side for or against the ANC (and the uber radical EFF and MK) can make a lot of difference in what alliances are possible.
Let us hope that the ANC & DA will give Ramaphosa his way and let him organise a Ramaphosa-DA coalition. Because Ramaphosa’s preferences of a modern free-market social democratic economy will in the process properly get under way; it will enable him to force the ANC into that direction. And of course – in such a scenario the ANC will not be able to remove him as president, because some people say that if the ANC loses its’ majority, the ANC will remove him and put Mashatile in. I don’t agree; the culture of the ANC does not work that way, and Ramaphosa has so far stayed true to the ANC ways of doing things. So that will be the best scenario that SA can hope to achieve, and I believe that in such a situation the SA economy will be able to take off, because the economy-friendly policies of the DA and Ramaphosa, as well as the social democratic agenda of Ramaphosa’s ANC will both get into its’ own.
Getting Ramaphosa behind the looting of what is left of SA mining companies by international vultures like BHP might well be a bargaining chip in a possible ANC – DA alliance to save South Africa. Let’s hope everybody swallows hard and does what is best for the country. The polls seem to indicate that the direction of South African politics is toward splintering into small nationalist groups and local interests meaning that ultimately the days of both the ANC and the DA are numbered. Let’s hope that the rule of law and good local governance aren’t also a victim of these trends. Dealing with corruption and the resulting blame game is a big problem. Incidentally that the vultures are trying to grab the best bits before the next election is actually a positive sign
What makes you think Ramaphosa has any economic friendly ideas
Registered voters? Likely voters? Number of participants? Margin of error? Date Performed? What portion of participants refused to say/were unsure? Modelling on turnout scenarios?
Without this info, you might as well be publishing the lotto numbers.
This is Ipsos. Credible poll
Its the reporting above that’s problematic, not the poll. I respect Ipsos very much. Very few newspapers properly report on polls.
From Ipsos we now know this is a poll of registered voters, meaning the final results will be quite different, depending on turnout and turnout differentials between parties.
Go to the IPSOS website and look at the press release. The level of detail supplied is enough to make you want more (and buy the detailed research product) 😉
The rainbow nation is going to vote out all the State Capture comrades.
We wish! I think that the reality will be different. While Ramaphosa is reliant on the remainder of the Zuma faction in the NEC for power, we will still have those tainted by the Zondo report active in the running of the government.
There are about 27 million registered voters.
In the last election about 17,5m voted. Out of that 17,5 million, the minority of media-aware voters is probably about 5%. How many read the DM? About 0,5%? How many are politically savvy and how many simply follow the leader? I would say that out of the about 12mn, it’s traditional tribal affiliations. So I don’t expect the DA to make much headway, but rather the split for possible coalitions will be ANC, EFF, IFP and MK.
Unfortunately….
I disagree with you. The small parties are a waste of time and the initial rush to them will reverse as people realise that they have zero political power, and that the DA is the very best bet to counter the idiocy of the ANC/EFF/MK. The MK is the fashion of the day and will take ANC/EFF votes. the total will remain roughly the same. The DA will grow a little bit as ANC voters realise that their dear party is a history in the longish term.
I agree, I also believe that the many voters who have went to small parties will revert back to the DA, perhaps not in this election cycle but definitely the next.
One thing, I believe the DA will shock many in Gauteng. It is possible that even though there might be no outright winner in Gauteng, the DA might – MIGHT – emerge as the party with the biggest voter share in the province. These are really interesting times.
So the options for us is either an ANC-EFF coalition, or an ANC-DA coalition. An ANC-MK coalition may be possible, but then one or two of the smaller political parties like Al-Jamaaha or the ATM will also have to be part of it. You make your pick: which one would you prefer? Because all the MPC parties together can’t make the cut; the ANC, EFF & MK together gets over 60% and none of them are part of the MPC. In fact, the MPC all together does not even get more than the ANC on its’ own.
The ANC must realise that a coalition with the EFF will do SA no good as Malema will be a major stumbling block with his pig headed persona. An ANC/MK coalition is unlikely due to Zuma’s hatred of Ramaphosa and furthermore there are too many sane comrades in the ANC to even think of MK having any say in government due to their loony manifesto. An ANC/DA would work providing the DA is able to assist Ramaphosa in getting rid of the rotten eggs in his cabinet. This is exactly what Ramaphosa needs to offset his timid reliance on these ‘comrades’ to keep him in the hot seat. If he and John Steenhuisen could form a working relationship and clean up our fractured parliament and put an end to corruption, South Africa would prosper greatly as the billions lost to theft and wasteful expenditure would instead be channelled into rescuing the SOE’s and in creating a market which is attractive to foreign investors. The DA’s business acumen and the ANC’s close relationship with the black community would bring about mutually beneficial results in all levels of endeavour in this country. We live in hope…
Hear!Hear!
I don’t think it would be wise for the DA to enter into a coalition with the ANC – it would be a practical coalition/solution but the voter base might not see it in the same sense. Hermann Pretorius wrote an opinion piece recently, providing a smart idea for the DA to somewhat neutralise the risks of going into bed with the ANC. His solution, the DA should not hold government seats but rather for the power to hold the government accountable via the positions of National assembly speaker and chairs of committees, this in a way, will absolve them from the failures of government and to exercise accountability. His piece goes into further detail, but I 100% agree with him. The DA should not enter into any sort of co-governing relationship with the ANC.
Unfortunately it isn’t about what is right or wrong. These politicians don’t care about anyone. It’s about staying in power so they can feed at the trough. They will lie with the enemy to remain on the gravy train.
I hope I am wrong.
The scary part is the horse-trading coalitions, with the only desire being to “be in power” with nary a thought given to the best interests of the citizens or the stability and future of the country.
ANC and EFF are likely to be able to get a combined majority no matter what happens. We have seen how effective and stable that combination has not been at Metro level.
Any coalition government where more time and effort is spent on internal squabbles and motions of no confidence, and resulting court cases, will do even further damage to our economy and the Rand will plummet.
The DA support is simply too small nationally, as they are seen as a “white party”, and this country works almost entirely on racial demographics.
There are way too many political parties, splitting the “remaining vote” into too many slivers of pie to truly satisfy anyone.
Whatever the election outcome we are in for a 5 year rollercoaster ride .
An ANC/DA alliance will spell the death of the DA simply because the ANC is too arrogant to accept they have failed. And too arrogant to listen.
Witness local govt’s where there has been tried. They simply ignore the DA and carry on as usual even though they know they’re destroying everything. There is no “Ubuntu”. It’s every man for themselves. They’ll never give that up.
Yet Pappas did the unthinkable and prevails in KZN no less. He’s the DA’s secret woefully underused weapon
Possibly an ANC minority government with unofficial support from the DA when appropriate would work. Dicy to the extreme, but maybe the only best option.
100%
For anyone who has read the Manifestos of the MK and EFF, should be afraid – very afraid.
They both paint a doomsday scenario should they obtain significant support.
We are truly stuffed in one of the parties or a coalition of the two parties gains power, though how they would pay for the ridiculous grants and incomes is beyond me!