Emirates overhauls 777s as delivery delays bite

The thing you need to know about passenger air travel is that most airlines make virtually no money from economy passengers. It’s the minority sitting up front – in both business and first class – who keep the jet fuel flowing. 

According to World Air Transport Statistics 2024 released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in August this year,  international premium class travel—business and first class—grew by 11.8%, outpacing growth in global economy travel of 11.5%. The total number of international premium-class travelers in 2024 was 116.9 million (6% of total international passengers).

Source: World Air Transport Statistics 2024

Emirates’ decision to spend R95-billion on a massive makeover of its Boeing 777 fleet is a calculated, multi-faceted response to a complex operational environment. While the upgrade brings a much-needed luxury experience to the Cape Town-Dubai route, it’s a dual crisis forcing the airline’s hand: a global manufacturing meltdown and a looming local jet fuel crisis.

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The core of the problem is a massive strategic void in the airline’s fleet renewal plan. The Boeing 777X, originally scheduled for delivery in 2020, is now not expected until late 2026 at the earliest; a delay of six to seven years. 

Compounding this, Airbus is dealing with its own supply chain issues, delaying Emirates' new A350s. “Had the 777 9X been delivered to us, we would have 85 [new aircraft] by now,” Emirates president, Tim Clark, said earlier this year, highlighting the scale of the disruption.

Unmatched demand 

This has forced Emirates into the largest cabin retrofit programme in aviation history as a critical defensive investment to protect its market position. 

“Because of the delayed deliveries that we’ve had, we decided to embark on this retrofit programme... this programme is absolutely crucial in this period,” Rashid Alardha, Emirates’’VP for Sub-Saharan Africa, tells Daily Maverick.

For passengers on the Cape Town route, the despised 2-3-2 business class layout will now be a thing of the past. It was a significant competitive disadvantage that has been replaced with a modern 1-2-1 configuration, ensuring every passenger has a flat-bed seat with direct aisle access. 

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More strategically, the aircraft now features a 24-seat premium economy cabin, a high-margin product driven by “overwhelming customer demand” that turns the retrofit into a profitable venture.

“Cape Town has always been one of our top destinations in Africa, but in recent years we’re seeing more tourists and new cities coming into South Africa, making this route even more important,” says Alardha. 

The carrier operates double-daily flights to Cape Town year-round, a sign of consistent premium demand that many airlines can’t match. And the answer to why Cape Town International hasn’t seen a new model lies in a global manufacturing crisis. “This is a global challenge that airlines are facing – the shortage of aircraft,” he explains. 

“Because of the delayed deliveries that we’ve had, we decided to embark on this retrofit programme ... This programme is absolutely crucial in this period ... and this I think is a solution on our side to bring up the passenger experience.”

Fying solo, but in good company

The timing of the upgrades isn’t coincidental. Emirates posted record profit of Dhs 19.1 billion (about R85-billion) in the 2024/25 financial year, despite carrying fewer passengers than before the pandemic. The formula is simple: focus on yield per passenger, not volume. 

Consider the economics: on a typical long-haul flight, 45% of passengers in premium cabins generate 84% of total revenue. Economy class, despite filling most of the aircraft, barely breaks even after accounting for operational costs. This explains why airlines obsess over premium products and why Emirates’ cabin upgrade represents a fundamental strategic shift rather than mere aesthetics. 

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Emirates’ strategy in South Africa also reveals a move away from formal airline alliances. Instead of acquiring local carriers, it relies on interline partnerships with domestic players like FlySafair and Airlink to connect passengers from its 150 global destinations to second and third-tier cities.

“We focus on our organic growth as an airline,” explains Afzal Parambil, Emirates’ regional manager for Southern Africa. "We have amazing partnerships with South African carriers... We bring people... to South Africa, and then these regional and domestic carriers connect them."

It’s a calculated risk that trades rigidity for flexibility. While Emirates can’t interfere with the internal policies of its partners – a reality highlighted during FlySafair’s recent pilot strikes – it focuses on what it can control. “In selecting airline partners, we ensure we have partners who align with us in vision and connectivity,” admits Alardha.

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Choosing the right bird 

Turning back to the hardware, the choice of the Boeing 777-300ER for the Dubai-Cape Town route is because the aircraft represents a “Goldilocks” solution, perfectly sized to meet passenger demand without the overcapacity and high financial risk of the giant Airbus A380 or the potential under-supply of seats from the smaller A350.

It can also carry 20 tonnes of underfloor cargo, significantly more than its Airbus counterparts. This cargo capacity is so crucial it can significantly erode, or even entirely negate, the A350’s advantage in lower fuel consumption. You see, the optimal aircraft is not the one with the lowest operating cost, but the one offering the highest overall profit potential.

This choice is further validated by South Africa’s systemic logistical challenges. The country faces a potential jet fuel supply crisis by October, according to Fuel Industry Association of South Africa CEO Avhapfani Tshifularo. The crisis is driven by outdated legislation unfit for an era of fuel importation and the shutdown of local refinery capacity, which has already led to the crisis fuel levels at OR Tambo.

Here, the 777 becomes a critical tool for mitigation. Its maximum range of around 14,600km provides a substantial buffer over the 7,644km Dubai-Cape Town route, giving Emirates crucial operational resilience. This allows for fuel tankering (carrying enough fuel for the return journey) if supply in Cape Town is constrained, a tactic far more challenging for aircraft with smaller range margins.

Industry headwinds

The broader aviation industry faces a perfect storm of challenges, which makes Emirates’ strategic clarity even more valuable. Aircraft delivery delays from Boeing and Airbus have forced carriers to extend aircraft lifecycles through expensive retrofit programmes rather than fleet renewal. 

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Meanwhile, the post-pandemic recovery has been uneven: leisure travel has rebounded strongly, but business travel remains below pre-Covid levels as companies embrace digital alternatives to face-to-face meetings.

Low-cost carriers, which built their business models on razor-thin margins and operational efficiency, are struggling with rising fuel costs, weather-related delays, air traffic controller shortages and aircraft engine reliability issues. These operational pressures erode the cost advantages that made the low-cost model viable, forcing an industry-wide pivot to chase premium yields per passenger. DM