ANALYSIS
Why is the unbearable cost of living not an obvious political weapon for 2024 election campaigns?
With just weeks until our elections, it seems unlikely that the ever more unaffordable cost of living will become a major issue. This comes as a surprise, as it is obvious that life now is much harder than it was five years ago. And yet, this may simply be because no single party has a comprehensive workable solution to our crisis, making other issues relatively easier to focus on.
It is almost an iron rule of democratic politics that when the cost of living increases dramatically, the party in power will come under pressure and it will more often than not pay a price for it.
Some historians like to point out that the French Revolution in 1789 occurred partly as a response to rising bread prices. (… and a short supply of cakes – Ed)
More recent history has shown the impact that the rising cost of living and associated lower living standards can have in democracies.
Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024
In the years after the Global Financial Crisis from 2008, many European voters were attracted to populism.
In the United States, the fact that many people feared their children’s lives would be worse than their own, and that life expectancy for white males declined for the first time outside of war, almost certainly contributed to the election of Donald Trump as president in 2016.
The country probably most similar to us in structure and inequality, Brazil, also experienced its version of this. A very populist Jair Bolsanaro was elected president after a difficult economic period.
(Intriguingly, a very popular former president who had served two terms made a historic political comeback, and was elected president again.)
In South Africa, the impact of the rising cost of living in a short space of time has been intense.
First came the pandemic, then Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As a result, some figures now indicate that by just next year, 49% of South Africans will be going to bed hungry or suffer from severe food insecurity.
Chillingly, the percentage of children who receive so little food they are now stunted has dramatically increased. Around seven million children are growing up in homes below the food poverty line.
That’s 7,000,000 children.
In our country.
All of this shows how strong one political message from uMkhonto we Sizwe could be; that life was better under Zuma than it was under Ramaphosa.
Muted response
And yet, strangely, there has been no impactful response to this from most of our political parties.
It would be rational to expect in these crazy days that there would be a sizeable move to some flavour of populism from most of our political players, and that in fact they would compete with one another to make the most radical promises.
However, among those who make the real decisions, there appears to be no appetite for addressing the cost of living issues substantively. Instead, strangely, things are almost going the other way.
Instead of promises to ease monetary policy, the National Treasury is even wondering aloud if it should reduce the SA Reserve Bank’s inflation target. This would require interest rates to be kept higher for longer.
Amazingly, this is being considered just months before a very difficult election.
Also, from the political centre, there is no demand for a massive Basic Income Grant, or real increases in other social grants.
Of course, it is true that the Social Relief of Distress Grant has recently moved from R350 to R370/a month, but this doesn’t even make up the losses for inflation since it was first instituted four years ago.
Almost the only movement from what could be called the political centre on this issue comes, strangely, from Action SA. This party, led by a former chairman of the Free Market Foundation, is promising a BIG of R780 a month, which would increase over time.
All of this would appear to leave the radical playing field to other parties, the biggest of which of course is the EFF.
It has promised to simply double social grants if elected into office.
And while the EFF may increase its share of the vote in this election, that is not yet certain.
If the EFF does not win significantly more votes, and if parties that do not promise big increases continue to dominate, this might put to bed once and for all the debate over whether receiving social grants does influence voting behaviour.
The fact that opposition parties appear to almost ignore the cost-of-living crisis appears to fly in the face of all democratic norms.
But there may be important reasons for this.
The first is that real-life solutions to our set of crises are difficult to find. To improve the lives of our people would require a comprehensive set of interventions, many of which would be opposed by many vested interests.
There are important reasons why our economy is still so concentrated, and why so many people have been able to ensure their children can use the system to succeed, while so many others have been left behind.
To find solutions to these problems is difficult, and perhaps beyond many of the people who manage our political parties (this is not so much a comment on the leaders of our parties, but rather on the depth of our problems).
This makes it difficult for any party to promise solutions that would appeal to a diverse set of people.
Again, the fact the EFF is so radical proves this, it can espouse its ideology precisely because it is not chasing the votes of a diverse group, but rather a much narrower sliver.
Second, it is likely that voters are very well aware of the very nature of our society. They know any immediate solutions for their hardship will be difficult to come by.
Adversarial tactics preferred
As a result, they may be very wary of trusting any particular party that comes with a blockbuster set of solutions.
This may explain the cry of so many people around braais and dinner tables, they don’t know who to vote for, because “none of them can be trusted”.
This means it is much easier for parties to instead focus on other issues.
They may believe it is a better use of airtime and resources to scare voters into voting for them than in finding a positive economic message of their own.
Again, like in other democracies, there is nothing unique in this. Many parties in many places appear to spend much of their time attacking their opponents, rather than concentrating on their own positive message.
This may have made Barack Obama’s “Yes We Can” slogan so rare and powerful, it was a deliberately positive message that did not concentrate on his opponent (it is also a huge contrast to the situation in the US now, where Trump and Biden are basically telling voters only they can stop their opponent).
Unfortunately, unless something unexpected and dramatic happens in this election, or in future polls, there is likely to be very little political incentive for parties to change their tune. There simply won’t be votes in a positive economic message.
And thus, despite the incredible hardships our people are experiencing, the cost of living may remain fairly low on the campaign agenda. DM
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Here in the United States food costs have risen about 38 percent from what they were on the day that Biden took office. Trump left office with the inflation rate at 1.4 percent.
What about world inflation? You can hardly blame this on Biden. Trump would be a disaster but unfortunately as being slightly less geriatric than Biden he might get in. He is a bully and a nasty guy but people seem to like him. Beggars belief. Can’t believe that Trump and Biden are the best candidates the US can provide. Something wrong. Politics is such a dirty game or am I just a cynic.
COVID.
pew research centre has shown that the US inflation rate over the past two years is nowhere near the top of the list in terms of global inflation rate. global inflation has been huge since COVID. the US is in the ballpark of germany, the UK, germany, south korea, canada, netherlands, sweden.
i shudder to think of what inflation rates would have looked like unfer trump. i don’t see him pushing interest rates up.
Oh, interest rates would have gone up no matter who the president of the USA was. The entity that decides on the interest rate mainly looks at the inflation and how to get that under control. And the only reason why there is an expectation for the interest rates to come down is because Biden did extraordinary well in ironing out the supply chain issues; the question is whether Trump would have been able to do as well with that. I doubt it very much.
Please can we stick to facts when we want to comment, research has shown that food inflation in America has actually come done from 1.9% in 2015 to 1.3% in 2024. Please if you have too, just goggle before you post misinformation as fact and feed us with Trump propaganda.
According to which credible source?
It’s understandable how little policy debate happens when the dialogue is all about incompetence and corruption.
It seems that the opposition is missing an opportunity to show that the policy of the last 30 years was intended to keep the economy concentrated.
Taxi owners are protected while mass transit is allowed to fail, empowerment is focussed on company owners not workers, education protects educators without regard of outcomes, etc
The slogans in this cycle is all about fixing things. How about “You were wrong”
You are right. We are a country run by politicians who are have all been bred in the unions. All of them. And they are still controlled by unions. We will never be able to move ahead if we do not start to have people in charge with a broader background and vision
Correct! The single cause of all the country’s problems is poor leadership. Section 47 (1) of the Constitution sets the entry standards for MP’s, from whom our cabinet ministers are chosen. The de facto directors of South Africa Ltd. There is no competence requirement, (not even literacy) and until yesterday the integrity standard barred all who had been convicted of a jail sentence exceeding 12 months in the last 5 years from entry. Most major decisions are referred to the National Assembly for a decision, but our MP’s usually have little understanding of the facts or impacts of their decisions (unless there is a good tender involved – then they are extremely innovative.)
Stephen is correct about economic solutions. But sound economic policies don’t produce results instantly, and seldom make good election campaign material – unless the country has a highly educated population- which we do not. Therefore, irrational non-sustainable promises like doubling BIG, NHI, free homes for everyone, and anything else one can dream up will win votes. The fact that funding them will be impossible is tomorrow’s problem and will only materialise if you end up in government.
Your article only really focuses on 3 parties and neither have a good track record. Anc eff and action sa. You seem to leave out parties like the da and freedom front who’s one item in their manifestos has been to keep the 350 grant in place but not increase it and rather focus on creating an environnent that encourages investment and in turn creates jobs. Should either eff or anc have any sort of majority type power after these elections our currency and economy will drop even further and cost of living will go through the roof even more. It’s time people in this country start waking up and measuring parties based on what they have done alone. It does not take a rocket scientist to compare cape Town and western cape as a whole to other Metropolitan areas and provinces and spot the difference in leadership.
But the electorate hasn’t and won’t wake up to this cos racism gets in the way; racism of DA and of electorate. Until racism is address systemically SA will always vote racially. It’s who we are.
You are right. The people in the country north of Sedgefield only know dysfunctional corrupt provincial management and although they are all flocking south west of Sedgefield for better pastures the DA does not exist. New small parties who are formed to divide like Rise Mansi with solutions like giving food to people to eat as a solution and increasing the youth age to 45 TO DECREASE UNIMPLOYMENT? and populist solutions like land distribution are not called out
y
We’re very short on rocket scientists in this country. Instead we have the hordes who will complain for 4 years then be called to a huge gala meeting where they will get free fried chicken, a T shirt and a cap and then mindlessly cast their vote for the same party that will keep them prisoners of their pathetic existence till the next election. When things go really bad they may block roads, set things on fire, throw stones at cars forgetting of course it was their lack of reason that puts them in a tin shack, with not ablutions, water, electricity etc. Nothing will change until the gene pool with this mentality is cleansed,
Uh!! Gene pool cleansed Dr Mengele
Read the bigger picture into Mario’s comment instead of jumping to false conclusions. Cleansing by means of proper education, job creation etc. all of which are failures of the ANC.
Read the comment several times, and don’t see any reference to what you’re suggesting – just a fairly nasty racial superiority being displayed.
how did your comment even get approved? advocating for cleansing of the gene pool is evil and horrific. aremia, WW2, rwanda, sudan, east timor, syria, rohingya, tigray, croatia, bosnia, cambodia, kosovo… do these genocides mean nothing to you?
Because the majority of readers that have a say in approving comments here, thinks anything and everything qualifies as civil as long as the comment is spitting some vitriol at “the hordes” (their word, not mine).
Spot on, Greeff!
You are right. We are a country run by politicians who are have all been bred in the unions. All of them. And they are still controlled by unions. We will never be able to move ahead if we do not start to have people in charge with a broader background and vision
Of course cost of living has risen for most globally, but SA has a plethora of self inflicted disasters
Few likely reasons for political apathy
Disconnected; they’re oblivious coz it doesn’t affect them and close ones
Helplessness; They’re overwhelmed by it, don’t know what to do or how
No imagination; they have no ideas and are failing to engage SA talent
Denial; some know they’re responsible for it. They want to pretend it’s no so
No empathy; They don’t care, they’re showing their true colours in focusing on power and control, not people
It’s interesting that the proposed solutions high cost of living and unemployment, in RSA, seems to be only social grants(create new ones or increase the existing ones).
Less emphasis on public works programmes and something like the ‘Marshall Plan’.
Whereas in USA Trump was promising more jobs, safety and affordable commodities.
How, “well, we are exporting jobs to China… Bring them back. Our own companies are closing main production plants here in the US and transferring them to China, because of high costs of production and taxes here. So, give them more tax incentives and impose more tariffs on products made in China”
On safety, “build the wall in the Mexican border and make make Mexico pay for it, sign executive orders barring people from Muslim countries from coming to the US. And Americans should not compete with the illegal immigrants for jobs”
On NATO member-States,well, “they should pay their bills, we protect them by footing the bulk of NATO’s bill, but they then go and buy weapons from our enemies like Russia(Turkey buying fighter jets from Russia). And they don’t spend 2% of GDP on defense as agreed”
Agreed! Creating new jobs in SA should be easy with decent policies and planning (not the glacial garbage of Patel and Co). How to do it? Simple:
1) A proper mining cadastre that is easily accessible, transparent and easy to use – like most countries in Southern Africa, bar Zimbabwe, where that elite also has good reason to hide beneficial ownership from public scrutiny. Also scrap the requirement for a BEE shareholding in exploration – it kills off that absolutely vital, yet very risky, initial part of mine development.
2) Lower entry-level minimum wage to the same level as the government’s own EPWP – surely people would rather work for that, than receive a third of it as a grant? It will stimulate economic activity, create jobs and those who excel will move through the ranks to higher paid positions.
3) Scrap stifling legislation, from work permits for skilled people to the constant meddling of so-called ‘Masterplans’ that entrench the interests of a small minority of people (basically the BEE elite, on both sides).
4) We’ve allegedly got around R1 trillion of ‘shovel ready’ infrastructure projects in SA – can somebody tell dozy Cyril where the bloody shovels are? See 3 above for part of that problem!
5) Dramatically increase support for SA companies bidding for work in other African countries as this is worth billions of dollars every year and we’re losing it other countries companies.
6) Smash the criminal syndicates holding construction sites to ransom.
There is No political party currently operating with serious intent, who could go to it’s sponsors and say they want to run on a socialist, grass roots democratic platform with basic income, health and child care, housing and calorie intake at the center of policy. They would be laughed out of the room.
The concerns you raise are real, global, and not set to end any time soon. In fact if Europe and Israel do not end their wars, things could get several orders of magnitude worse.
There are no social ANC policies in place, to markedly improve people’s daily lives, and none will be planned or allowed. ANC sponsors make it so.
And by the way the French Revolution was exactly that: a bloody revolt that beheaded capital, and at least tried to introduce democracy. We in south Africa have never seen the like of it, and probably never will.
What we will see, is gangland anarchy, similar to Yemen, Nigeria, south American countries. That is our future.
Amateur investigation into other countries suggests we are on a “Zimbabwe economy” trajectory, with “Brazilian style” law and order, the system cannot bear adding the political instability of Argentina, which was, and still is, devastating to that country, (3 presidents in a month???). Sadly, best for SA is that the status quo remains, until everything else is stable.
The low tax base cannot support the masses either financially or with jobs. On the one hand we have employment policies which allow employees to get away with poor work performance, on the other we don’t employ people on merit, but rather based on colour and then we make it so difficult for companies to operate from here (no electricity, water, transport, mail etc) that our GDP is nowhere near where it should be. So unless all the unemployed people start getting going and creating their own opportunities, we are in a dwindling spiral. Encourage business development, make it easy for people to make and create new things, that’s what we should be doing.
Thank you for pointing this out – the ENTIRE welfare system, as well as the bedrock of BBBEE and EE, are financially unsustainable by the long-suffering South African taxpayer.
Unfortunately, we are long past the tipping point, and many of our best and brightest (of all races) have voted with their feet and departed for countries that offer them better opportunities.
Just vote for the DA, if they were to get in …….
The currency would immediatly strengthen , we would have a chance of getting off the grey list quicker , the level of corruption will reduce drastically , free market economic polocies will allow for our country rating to improve ,bringing the hope of more direct foreign investment , this will allow more funding to help the most vulnerable , more imployment, a better life, etc etc etc
Vote DA … simple
I’m taking a wild shot here: The ‘unbearable cost of living’ crisis affects really only a relatively small group of people, the middle class. Those who still have a job and whose incomes don’t increase in line with inflation. Not those in government, where they basically steal whatever they need to get on. Unemployed people’s SASSA grants basically go up to cope with the worst, but it probably makes no real difference to people who have to fight to survive. And let’s face it, the (ever-shrinking) middle class does not matter to politicians.
What about what the DA is saying and doing in the Western Cape?
Bob F – April 8th 2024 at 17:09
The cost of living should of course be a major factor for all parties which intends contesting the election but the fact that there has been so much thievery within ANC ranks since Zuma’s time and that it is still carrying on must surely be sufficient to force a change of government. If
not, it will mean that South Africa has a totally ignorant voting public.
oril
As I suspected, you can casually talk about cleansing gene pools if the people being cleansed are black, but not if they’re white. My post that turned Mario de Abreu’s around hasn’t been published, I’m assuming because people took offence – why not be offended by the original post as well, then?
The Politician’s Nightmare
In a country with poor levels of education, presenting a prospectus with sound economic policies, likely to increase growth and raise living standards on a sustainable basis, won’t be perceived as being attractive, and won’t garner votes. To get into government one must present populous policies with promises of free stuff, whether sustainable or not. Should you get into power and implement said policies, it would trigger a run on government bonds and currency, inflation would spiral out of control, and the country would be unable to service its debt. The campaign promises would be impossible to keep resulting in instability. This is usually exacerbated by the exodus of the wealthiest citizens who tend to be the most mobile, were the largest taxpayers and employers.
The only solution is education – but that takes generations and our MP’s have to understand this, and I’m sure most don’t.