ANALYSIS
Ramaphosa’s incoming ANC manifesto — major challenges need addressing in a crowded space
ANC leader President Cyril Ramaphosa is due to unveil the party’s election manifesto on Saturday and it’s hard to see him announcing anything that will make the election needle jump. Still, there is a small window for his speech to give people hope and improve the party’s chances of keeping its nose above 50%.
Going into this election, the ANC faces a situation unlike any before.
It faces more opposition from more directions, including a party led by its former leader Jacob Zuma. Like the DA, it is under attack from the left and the right. The electorate has grown tired of its broken promises.
Everywhere there is proof of the ANC’s failure. Young people cannot find work, roads are strewn with potholes, water systems are broken and there is no reason to believe that load shedding will be solved in the coming years.
Despite Ramaphosa’s promise during the State of the Nation Address that “We will not stop until every person responsible for corruption is held to account”, there is no evidence he means it.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has actively worked against his anti-corruption promise. He has retained David Mahlobo and Dipuo Peters despite findings by the Zondo Commission and Parliament against them. (Photo: Leila Dougan)
The National Prosecuting Authority lost the Nulane case, which it described as the blueprint for State Capture trials. Corruption charges involving R2.2-billion were dropped against former Eskom acting CEO Matshela Koko. Others accused of corruption have simply not been prosecuted.
Ramaphosa himself has actively worked against his promise. He has retained David Mahlobo and Dipuo Peters despite findings by the Zondo Commission and Parliament against them.
Sifiso Buthelezi still holds a key position in the ANC parliamentary caucus despite the role he played in plundering Prasa.
Perhaps more crucially, the ANC National Executive Committee appears to be preparing to allow those implicated in corruption to represent the party in Parliament and provincial legislatures.
Despite a promise from the chair of the ANC’s Integrity Commission, Frank Chikane, that 97 people (that’s NINETY-SEVEN — Ed) would go through a disciplinary process, virtually none have.
Frank Chikane’s ambition impossible — what chance that the ANC finally turns against corruption?
As News24’s Carol Paton pointed out this week, they will now probably go forward to the ANC’s list conference.
All of this may set the stage for Ramaphosa and his party to make populist promises in a bid to win votes.
Certainly, some in the ANC have claimed that the introduction of a basic income grant is only a matter of time. Others can point to Ramaphosa’s comment that he was “looking for his pen” to sign the NHI Bill into law.
But as Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s budget speech shows, there is no money to back up these promises. To make such promises after such a speech is surely unworkable.
Ramaphosa may be hoping that if he signs the NHI Bill into law, business groups and the private healthcare sector challenge him in court. This would align the ANC with the poor against the rich.
However, the groups that oppose the NHI have shown themselves to be politically adept and could well avoid that trap.
Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi. (Photo: Kabelo Mokoena)
There is also the example of the ANC’s Gauteng premier, Panyaza Lesufi, who has richly indulged in populist promises, but there are limits to any promises the ANC and Ramaphosa make.
While the ANC still has immense goodwill from many voters for its role in the struggle against apartheid, many of those voters simply do not believe it will fulfil its promises.
And it appears that its leaders understand this.
For example, on Monday Ramaphosa spoke at a mini-rally in Inanda in KZN, where he promised the ANC was building dams and pipes to fix water problems there. But he did not give any timelines. Had he done so, it’s likely he would have been disbelieved.
While South Africa is a difficult country to govern and our history has created a legacy of deep-seated problems, the ANC has only itself to blame for the deterioration of public services.
Past glories
The ANC will try to change the playing field of this election towards a narrative that it should be judged on how the country has changed in the past 30 years.
Ramaphosa has done this in two big speeches this year.
At the ANC’s January 8th Statement, he spoke of the party’s achievements since 1994. He did the same thing in his State of the Nation Address last week.
This tactic may not work.
Some voters will reflect on how their lives have improved dramatically since the end of apartheid, but others will judge the ANC on how it has governed over the past five years — and they have no reason to believe it will do any better in the coming five.
The race issue
In the past, election messages have often been about race. Sometimes this is disguised, such as Tony Leon’s “Fight Back” campaign 25 years ago.
Sometimes it’s explicit, such as when Jacob Zuma in 2016, while leading the ANC, claimed to not “understand” black people who voted for the DA.
Considering the racialised inequality which still defines so much of our society, race is likely to play a significant role in this election. Zuma and EFF leader Julius Malema will push the narrative.
The question is whether the ANC too will engage in this narrative.
Ramaphosa has not focused on race during previous elections. But the ANC has never been under as much pressure as it is now.
And, strangely, the plethora of new parties appealing to South Africans across the spectrum may weaken the use of the race issue for the ANC. This is because it is now in danger of losing votes to many parties with different ideologies. The fight is no longer just against the DA.
This election will not be dominated by a few main issues but will be fought on a wide front.
Among the election issues is the ANC’s support for Palestinians in Gaza. As previously noted, this can divide the DA while it is a unifying issue for the ANC. There is a resonance between the way Israel treats Palestinians and how the apartheid government treated black people.
This could be a strong part of Ramaphosa’s speech on Saturday.
Where the ANC and Ramaphosa have a huge advantage is that the size of the ANC and its campaigning machinery will help it punch through the noise to get its message heard by voters.
This means that many voters will hear the party’s pitch. But it also means it will get more attention and more comments from its opponents.
However, the ANC still has the power to set the narrative like no either, especially if it displays unity and resolve in dealing with corruption and service delivery problems. DM
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The only thing he can do to increase his vote is to promise more social grants and increases for public servants. In other words bribes.
But those guys probably vote for him anyway
Looking at the picture of Chikane and his loyalty to a failed ANC, the only thing “Reverend” about him is his dress.
Of course the anc will use race as an electioneering tool, they always have and always will
I have no interest in anything that Ramaphosa or the gangsters of the ANC have to say. But what I would like to point out is that the DA and other parties – with the exception of the dreadful dog Malema and EFF – have done almost nothing to win votes. With the exception of a rare, pre-recorded, uninspiring, incoming phone call, I’ve seen no posters, no banners, few speeches, and most importantly, none of the basic actions of advertising and promotion (using human consumer psychology,) persuade people to not vote ANC/EFF. OUTA and similar organisations have done more to encourage outrage than the DA. Steenhuisen and his uninspiring leadership team just don’t get it.
And you presumably are not aware that the DA launched their manifesto to save South Africa five days ago?
Nothing CR can say that anyone will believe. Viva, ANC, Viva. NOT. ANC is possibly the most cancelled party in SA.
Everything is different, nothing has changed! Ramaphosa is a cleverer rogue than Zuma, got richer too!
There is no greater condemnation of the quality of the SA opposition, and the DA in particular, than that a party as incompetent and venal as the ANC can consider 50% a failure. Despite no jobs, no electricity, lack of water, lack of housing, collapsing healthcare and endemic corruption, voters look at the alternative and say, “no”. There is no lack of democracy, no absence of information, nobody disputes any of the above. There is simply a failure to reach out beyond a relatively tight core vote strategy to engage the broader population that the alternative to the ANC is worthwhile and trustworthy.
True. In any other ‘democracy’ the stream of bad news just in the last two weeks would be enough to unseat a government, let alone 15-20 years. It’s the assumption that the sins of the ANC are weighted the same way by all voters as the potential sins of the alternatives. And that the benefits of switching or voting at all are obvious. being angry and calling the voters ‘deplorable’ to quote H. Clinton because they don’t seem to be doing the right thing…well we all know where that landed…better voter engagement urgently needed