It is entirely true that President Joe Biden’s senior advisors have been brainstorming over policy ideas that could — or should, in a just universe — help stall Donald Trump in his tracks, especially since Trump would be unable to embrace such ideas and policies himself. These meetings are a recognition Trump will almost certainly be Biden’s opponent.

Now being reported, some of the (presumably popular) ideas being mooted include mandatory prescription drug price caps, higher taxes on wealthy Americans to plug a future hole in Social Security funding, and stronger actions on reining in unjustified corporate price-gouging.

Such ideas are being touted as being potential winners for the president’s reelection bid and the difference in a close race. It is a question, however, if voters will make their selection based on something as specific as price caps on prescriptions, rather than on broader issues, concerns, or perceptions about the candidates.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Donald Trump and the cognitive decline of the American empire

The discussions have been taking place in addition to all the regular policy and cabinet meetings, or even international crisis meetings in the White House’s situation room. Crucially, fewer than 10 months remain before the November election.

For example, a story in the Washington Post recently explained:

“The discussions over whether Biden should unveil a plan to shore up Social Security, previously unreported, reflects a growing effort by the Democratic Party’s leading economic thinkers to craft a populist message to counter Trump, who appears likely to win the GOP nomination easily and head into the general election with a substantial lead among voters on pocketbook issues.

“Biden’s advisers have also homed in on the campaign’s likely top issues in the presidential race, with prescription drugs, taxes and corporate price-gouging emerging at the forefront of those discussions.

“Biden’s advisers say the president’s campaign message will emerge more clearly after the upcoming State of the Union address [on 7 March] and subsequent White House budget proposal, both of which are expected in March. Already, however, the Biden campaign and White House officials are beginning to wrestle with the tension between emphasising his first-term accomplishments and identifying new goals to achieve in his second term, while voters remain unhappy with the state of the US economy even though it’s shown surprising resilience and strength.

“‘They’re trying to figure out the second-term agenda conversation — one of the big questions here is how much are you looking forward, and how much are you looking backwards,’ said one outside adviser briefed on the internal talks. ‘Yes, the actions he’s taken have to be a big part of the pitch. But for the voters who may have moved off of Biden, what are you going to do to tell them to give us four more years because we have more to do?’”

Anticipating moods

Daily Maverick has conjured up what very well could have been the discussion at one of those sessions and offer it as minutes of a fictional meeting to help our readers better understand the arguments that will be coming forward in this presidential campaign and the way governmental leaders wrestle with dealing with both politics and policies — trying to integrate the two worlds.

In our scenario, participants would have been asked not to limit their thinking to what could be achieved in the next several months or to their precise areas of responsibility, but, rather, to think strategically.

To aid in making this discussion as unscripted and free-wheeling as possible, attendees would convene at the presidential retreat of Camp David (about 90 minutes from Washington) in the same conference room used in the negotiations of the accord between Israel and Egypt to give the meeting real gravitas. Aides and communication devices, save for a few staffers with deep subject expertise and a note-taker, would be relegated to an adjoining room.

– Minutes begin –

President Biden (PB): explained the purpose of this meeting to his gathering of senior officials. He acknowledged that the current political situation is a challenging one, but he reminded his colleagues that he had been actively involved in politics longer than most of those gathered had been alive. Over that time, he had witnessed major turnarounds in political fortune during his career, but those came about from hard work, great ideas, careful execution, and a deep reading of the political landscape, rather than by acts of God.

In the president’s view there has been far too much “malarkey” written in the media — in stories about a stumbling administration and an adrift presidency, and one led by a man many believe was too old for a second term. Instead, going forward, the administration must change the argument. Instead of that old narrative, we need to demonstrate that with age and our collective wealth of experience comes the knowledge and quality of judgement we will apply to the challenges of the future.

In an aside, the President made reference to candidate Ronald Reagan’s effective use of humour to undercut his opponent Walter Mondale during a televised debate in 1984, acknowledging his own age, but saying he would not hold his opponent’s relative youth against him.

The president said that the administration’s collective task is to show we are united, strong, and highly motivated. Crucially, we are guided by a deeply felt belief in our fundamental democratic norms and values. But we must do it with decency.

We must recognise we are already in a general election campaign in all but name. Our message must be taut and tough. But it must also be clear to people whose lives do not revolve around the ins and outs in Washington, DC. We must work hard to avoid what will sound like impenetrable, incomprehensible political babel.

The president turned to measures uncompleted by Congress such as border security, aid to allies and friends, a normal government budget process, and protection of women’s reproductive rights. On all these, we must put the blame right where it belongs.

The president reminded the meeting President Harry Truman had successfully done this back in 1948. He placed responsibility for stalling on a whole list of important measures squarely on a “do nothing” Republican Congress.

US President Joe Biden (centre) attends a service at the St John Baptist Church in Columbia, South Carolina, on 28 January, 2024. (Photo: Kent Nishimura / AFP)

This time around, the blame rests with the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, a slender majority doing everything possible to derail major legislative action to curry favour with its base and to fend off primary challenges to current members of Congress. We need to call out such political scams for what they are and support achieving a Democratic majority in the House in 2024 so that Congress can again do its job.

The president then called on the respective attendees, asking them to speak on the policy challenges they face and how they must be framed for success in the election. He asked Janet Yellen (JY) at the Treasury, Gina Raimondo (GR) at Commerce, and Kathy Tai (KT) at the US Trade Representative’s office to start the discussions.

Yellen (JY) began by stressing the need to make first principles clear and easy to visualise. There is simply too much misinformation being spoken by people with the intent to deceive. Such misinformation confuses people.

The economy is in good shape overall. In contrast to nearly every other nation on the planet, the American economy is and will continue to be a jobs-creating machine. And those are good jobs that need skilled workers and thus have been absorbing almost everyone with even modest skills and who is available to work.

She noted that nearly 15 million jobs had been created since this administration took office. In the past several months, new job formation has exceeded even optimistic forecasts and there is little sign of this pace slowing down before November.

Yes, inflation has been a problem, but it is now less so than in most other nations. It is continuing its decline and prices on politically sensitive products such as gasoline [petrol] continue to fall. The one rough spot, so far, has been consumer interest rates. That has been good if you are a saver, but not so good if you hope to purchase a home, an apartment [flat], a new car, or big appliances on credit.

But this level is not necessarily going to stay this way. As inflation continues to drop, interest rates will be coming down too when the Fed takes action on the prime lending rate. But it is true that consumers — and thus voters — see prices for things by comparing them to their memories of four or five years ago.

Gina Raimondo (GR) noted that our greatest challenge is in delivering clear, easy-to-relate-to messages about the growing success of our Chips and infrastructure acts — among other activities — and how they are helping return industry and good manufacturing jobs to towns and cities from which they had been leaching away for a generation. The challenge is to make it clear that this is beginning to happen all across the country, rather than just in Silicon Valley or Austin, Texas, or along the high-tech corridors out of Boston and Washington, DC.

The challenge is that even very telegenic examples can become Megos if the administration simply points out new jobs and industrial developments springing up, rather than explaining clearly this has come about from a real partnership between entrepreneurs, workers, investors and the government. The challenge will be to keep showing up at new plant openings or expansions all across the country, bringing citizens, officials, and legislators to those events.

Katherine Tai (KT) built on the prior comments noting that the administration’s biggest communications task will be to show efforts to achieve economic growth has a real impact on the growth in exports. This becomes a chance to show that new export growth is not coming at the cost of traditional export earners such as agricultural commodities, financial services, and culture and entertainment — all of which remain solid growth sectors.

However, it is also true this is a world where pressures for protectionism are growing, domestically and abroad. Thus it remains a difficult challenge to convince voters that free trade — with proper safeguards and regulatory enforcement — is the right deal for Americans. And that the government is prepared to ensure other nations do not take advantage of access to American markets to the detriment of US citizens, workers, corporations and investors.

The president then turned to the national security team, calling on Tony Blinken (TB), Jake Sullivan (JS), and the deputy secretary of defence, Kathleen Hicks KHi), subbing for her secretary who was still recovering from surgery.

The secretary of state began by noting he had just returned from yet another visit to the Near East. He then set out the long-term questions as well as some more immediate, pressing ones. He added that crucial to the handling of any of these questions will be the way Congress reaches decisions as well as how the national political system reaches consensus on framing these challenges.

The big strategic issues remain, as they have been for some years. They revolve around how to deal with multi-faceted strategic competitions with Russia — including that country’s war against Ukraine and Nato’s response — and with China — including its pressures on an independent-minded Taiwan — and how allied Asian nations increasingly coalesce to respond to China.

Then there is the Near East’s tangled set of conflicts that encompasses Israel, the West Bank/Gaza, Iran and the latter’s proxy militias from Lebanon to Yemen, and other regional players. None of these will be solved in the course of one presidential administration, because their roots reach back into history, and because they encompass many different aspects of relations including military and economic ones.

US President Joe Biden (centre). (Photo: Kent Nishimura / AFP)

Read more in Daily Maverick: Middle East crisis news hub

Having said that, each of these challenges includes the American relationships with allies in Nato and East and South Asia. Inevitably, these strategic engagements and entanglements overlap with trade and investment issues, and even the possibilities of international medical emergencies, along with an underlying concern for the environment and climate change.

As an aside, any presidential decision runs the risk of alienating some portion of the electorate or economic sector but a real leader must accept that risk. This challenge has become highly visible in staking out a pathway to a more stable Near East and the political risks need to be understood as well as the policy choices.

In short, it is almost impossible to ignore any of these concerns and any politician who says America can retract the draw bridge to the world is deliberately misleading citizens. Such sophistry makes it harder to deal with any or all of these questions.

The unrelenting task for a president and his team is to deal with all of these questions with decisiveness, patience, and deep understanding. There must be a calm, experienced hand in charge of America’s course. The presidency demands an occupant who serves as a trusted interlocutor with foreign leaders who can be certain that the president’s word is his (or her) bond. That cannot be someone who leans one way one day and the opposite way the next — or who doesn’t actually understand the issues and their relationships.

The secretary then asked Jake Sullivan (JS) to add his perspective.

He noted that the secretary has set the table for a robust conversation but he added that from his perspective, the biggest challenge will be to exert a crisply defined, closely coordinated government operation to tackle all of these challenges.

To make things more complex, it is also a key task for this government — or any government — to simultaneously ensure high-quality coordination with allies as the nation reassures allies that American positions are well-considered, and thoughtfully explored and that they have a high level of continuity and stability in their execution in the future.

Kathleen Hicks (KHi) added that the administration needs to ensure citizens and voters — and allies — know the country is capable and willing to expend the resources to make its strategic strength effective. And that means working closely with Congress to ensure military capabilities are appropriately funded, along with commitments to allies and friends such as Ukraine. And there is an overlap with the policies needed to deal effectively with our borders and immigration but that should be left for the secretary of Homeland Security to speak to in more detail.

The president then called on the Homeland Security secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas (AM) for his thoughts.

The secretary began by noting that the president well understood how America’s immigration policy is under great pressure and a national debate on how to deal with the flow of migrants is now thoroughly entangled with other foreign policy challenges — most notably military aid to Ukraine and Israel, and sales to Taiwan. Fixing this crisis is not something a president can take a broadsword to such a knot and solve everything. That is a delusion, but it is becoming an increasingly popular one, spread by some political figures including, obviously the incumbent president’s almost certain electoral challenger.

Having said all that, the political challenges of a recalcitrant Congress and a meddlesome Republican presidential candidate make it very hard for the incumbent president to simply solve things without pushing hard against that Congress — and taking the case to the American people. Some are already calling this election “the immigration election”.

Presidential public utterances will need to speak real truths about the importance of immigration in powering the economy and continuing to bring the world’s smartest, most innovative, most energetic people to this nation, even as it will inevitably alter the old balances of demography. This is one tough one.

The president explained that he had deliberately left the vice president to the end of presentations because he wanted her to pull the various comments into some of her own observations. Afterwards, he wanted to ask Mike Donilon (MD), a longtime aide who had just taken on a senior position in the presidential campaign, leaving the White House, to speak to how these complicated challenges should inform our campaign.

The vice president began by saying that the single most important task for the upcoming presidential campaign is to ensure every one of the administration’s speeches and interactions with voters reflects the deep truth that the country’s common values inhabit our policy choices, whether it is the challenge of achieving racial and gender equality, appropriate respect of and support for women’s reproductive rights, a civil tone in our public discourse, tolerance of diversity, and an appreciation for the kind of society we wish for our children.

These core values must shine through in every speech. There must always be a decent respect for the opinions of humankind. She said that these would definitely be in every public presentation she would be making in the months ahead.

Mike Donilon took the floor. While noting that he had just moved over to the new office — and hadn’t even unpacked yet — he said that three things seemed clear to him.

First is a reiteration of what the vice president just said — the administration’s campaign must reflect the basic values we want audiences to hear, appreciate, and, ultimately, take on board.

Second, it must be very clear that the challenges for the government and nation are not simple — and that many, most of them, are interconnected.

Third, it must be absolutely certain that such things are explained clearly and simply — not simplistically — but in ways that get people nodding their heads with a new understanding.

In tandem with that, we must push back — hard, even decisively — at Donald Trump whenever he offers some kind of snake oil he promises is a cure for everything. He must be held to account with an insistence that he explain what he means when he spouts fraudulent statistics and just plain garden-variety falsehoods.

The campaign headquarters will be putting together a truth squad that will hold him to task every time he tries to sell one of those things. The challenge, of course, is that disinformation and old-fashioned lies will be flowing 24/7 and the campaign must track down every single one of these and hold him to account.

– Minutes end –

And then, like the poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge and his fragments of Kubla Khan, this author was awakened from his own reverie and so he cannot say what marching orders ultimately were issued to Biden’s reelection campaign, or what decisions were reached by his team.

What we can say is that this upcoming presidential campaign will be a truly bruising one. There will be a tsunami of false charges, overlapping charges from various sources, misinformation, and sophisticated social media attacks. It is likely some of those will emanate from outside the country.

Separating fact from fiction in this campaign for citizens will be a crucial responsibility of the media and it must step up to that responsibility with real energy and care. Voters will need to be very careful in picking their way through 2024’s political rhetoric. DM