ECONOMIC MATTERS OP-ED
The R497-billion question — how to use the GFRECA for good in national spending
The IEJ has proposed tapping the R497-billion balance in the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account to support key areas of spending, and National Treasury and the Reserve Bank Governor have now seemingly conceded - a welcome move given the moral and legal imperative to utilise available resources for development, rights, and reducing suffering.
In September 2023, the Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) proposed that the government utilise some of the R497-billion balance in the Gold and Foreign Exchange Contingency Reserve Account (GFECRA) to support key areas of spending. This elicited sharp opposition from the business press and Reserve Bank officials.
Three months later, the National Treasury and Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago seemed to have conceded that the GFECRA balances should be tapped. This is welcome, given the moral and legal imperative to utilise available resources to advance development, realise rights, and reduce suffering.
The key question now becomes how, and on what, to spend the funds.
The GFECRA records realised and unrealised profits and losses from changes in the value in the Reserve Bank’s gold, forward exchange contracts, and foreign exchange reserves. The funds belong to the state and can be transferred to the National Revenue Fund.
The IEJ believes that the majority of the R497-billion should be carefully deployed to boost desperately needed development and inclusive growth (leaving some in the account as a buffer). Deploying these funds should not serve as a cover for ongoing budget cuts elsewhere. Four priority areas stand out.
Urgent investment in key state entities
Critical state entities are currently underfunded and hobbled with unsustainable debt repayments, eating away at funds needed for investment and infrastructure upgrades. For Eskom, this literally interferes with keeping the lights on. Transnet is on a similar path.
Debt relief is essential.
For Eskom, the 2023 National Budget took steps in this direction, announcing relief of R254-billion over the medium term. This has been bogged down in negotiations with most of the relief not actually constituting debt write-offs for Eskom. Strict conditionalities have been attached, through which National Treasury wants to drive privatisation and exercise veto power over energy policy.
Further scope exists to tackle Eskom’s current R423-billion debt. This would mean renegotiating the terms of debt (interest rates and payment periods) held by the private sector, transferring the full debt to the state or a special purpose vehicle, and utilising the GFECRA, together with already allocated funds, to cover debt service and repayment costs in full.
New capital expenditure
Transnet’s failing freight, rail and the inefficiency in the country’s ports, are key economic challenges. National Treasury estimates that rail inefficiencies cost the economy R411-billion in 2022.
While Transnet has initiated a five-year capital programme of R122.7-billion, of which R23-billion is for infrastructure, this is unlikely to be enough to address infrastructure and maintenance backlogs. Eskom should serve as a cautionary tale about funding such investment through taking on debt.
Government could, therefore, use the GFECRA to bolster infrastructure, providing Transnet with a capital injection to support maintenance and investment. This will have a positive impact on other sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing and retail trade, and boost exports.
Investment in passenger rail transport through Prasa is another possibility. This is critical for bringing down the cost of commuting for poor and working class communities.
Boost targeted social expenditure: the SRD as a pathway to BIG
Utilising the GFECRA for critical social expenditure is another avenue. Just-published modelling shows that a South African BIG would lower poverty, boost consumption, and help grow the economy.
Although the existing Social Relief Distress (SRD) grant is widely considered to lay the basis for a BIG, National Treasury has gradually strangled the SRD grant in an attempt to choke a BIG.
The SRD has remained at R350 since 2020 and its budget was cut from R44-billion in 2022/23 to R36-billion in 2023/24, with a proposed R33-billion for 2024/25. Due to restrictive criteria, administrative barriers, and a low means test, the number of beneficiaries has been deliberately reduced from a peak of 10.9 million in March 2022, to approximately 8.7 million at the end of 2023. The 2024 budget allocation provides for less than 8 million beneficiaries per month. This unjustifiable exclusion and retrogression has elicited a court challenge from IEJ, #PayTheGrants, and Seri.
With no clear plans for the SRD grant beyond 2025, the National Treasury is also attempting to play a permanent BIG off against other social programmes, or suggest it necessitates a hike in VAT. This should not, and need not, be the case.
In addition to existing allocations, GFECRA funds could be ring-fenced to fund a three-year transition period from SRD to BIG. This should ensure an SRD grant at the level of the food poverty line in 2024 and 2025, with everyone of working age below the poverty line covered, while a BIG and appropriate funding mechanisms are put in place. The Child Support Grant should also maintain parity with the SRD to make sure children and their carers are not left behind. This would fulfil the constitutional obligation to progressively realise the right to social assistance amidst growing hunger and exclusion.
Expand developmental financing
A perennial problem with development financing in South Africa — whether through the Industrial Development Corporation, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, or other developmental agencies targeting small businesses, priority sectors, or historically disadvantaged communities — has been the need for these entities to raise funds from private capital markets. This limits their ability to lend at low-interest rates as they need to make a sufficient profit to cover costs and repay their own creditors.
This is in sharp contrast to, for instance, the Brazilian Development Bank which received significant subsidised credit and successfully drove a range of industrialisation projects, particularly between 2007 and 2015.
The GFECRA funds could, therefore, serve as an initial basis for capitalising development financing or, perhaps, a sovereign wealth fund. Sovereign wealth funds have been instrumental in driving investment towards national priorities.
For these purposes, the balances within the GFECRA must be complemented by other sources of financing, including additional subsidised credit from the Reserve Bank.
Such an approach would serve the dual objectives of channelling financing into priority sectors — in the context of a distorted financial sector that skews funding towards big established monopoly (often extractive) sectors, speculation, real estate, and services — and providing credit or capital on affordable terms in a high-interest rate environment.
Prudence and boldness
The GFECRA balances are no panacea to South Africa’s ailing economy. They are also not the only public funds that must be mobilised—further billions in untapped taxes, and domestic resources (for example, in the PIC) exist. But the funds do provide a substantial pool at an opportune moment. Policy discussions taking place must be transparent and Parliament should play its oversight role ahead of the 2024 National Budget.
The moment calls for both prudence and boldness. Prudence in that public funds are sometimes squandered. Boldness in that such investments could mark a break from the path of self-defeating budget cuts and a shift onto a path of desperately needed public investment. For this to occur, the funds must be deployed in addition to existing spending plans and complemented by the simultaneous scaling-up of budget investments in other critical social and economic priorities. We have little time to waste. DM
*The authors work at the Institute for Economic Justice
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Great article, if only our president would listen.
Let them use the GEPF if it is such a great investment in handing out pension money or paper profits – the latter are just an expression of the exchange rates collapsed by our kleptocratic government – as they get us deeper into debt so the theoretical profit will grow with a collapsed exchange rates.
Joe : in a way your suggestion that the GEPF sink 75% of its funds into lost causes seems like Justice.
I hope that half the GEPF members are honest Decent people that don’t deserve that outcome.
Nonsense-another group of “thinkers” and not “doers”! Even allowing the very idea of squandering the nations reserves of last resort, the last places these funds should be deployed is any state entity. The very political ideology and economic model that have brought them to their knees will be perpetuated with continued lack of expertise in all areas quite apart from the plundering which will take place.
As for the notion that a BIG enhances economic growth or performance which is already a hot topic (when in fact all it does is circulate net money without creating any wealth or jobs). To contemplate just taking reserves and pouring into a bottomless pit shows complete lack of thought.
Focus should be on growing the economy and creating jobs and wealth. That can only be achieved by ridding the country of the ruinous and corrupt government the country has the misfortune to endure.
Please would these thinkers rather divert their brainpower to sustainable long term solutions.
You covered the points that were flashing red in my evaluation of the idea being proposed. There is absolutely no consideration being given to ensuring the way government & SOE’s manage and spend our money changes – the sole reason we are in this mess in the first place. The idea as proposed merely secures more money to be wasted in the same way. Good money after bad unless it is used as the stick to force change.
Agree with both comments above.
Like children drooling seeing the ice cream cone on shop window, not realizing it’s just advert.
Can somebody at DM please fact check this “fund”
To my knowledge it is not a cash backed balance but an accounting entry to make government books balance.
So if Gov deposited $1m when runt was 12 and later brought it back at 16 then 4m was accounted for as a credit to this fund as profit. Gov has long since spent the R16m.
THERE IS NO PILE OF CASH????
you are correct,
but this is the coverup for printing money,
releasing it before the election.
NAFAS, UIF, etc you name it,
everybody will be happy,
and happy to vote for the ruling party
This will end in tears, buying 2024 votes ( T-shirts, KFC, busses, etc.) in the pockets of the cadres, not so much in infrastructure, etc.
Socialists are very good at spending other people’s money on their pet projects.
Our reserves are 16% of GDP, already below IMF guidelines. Worsening that by selling gold and forex would make borrowing more expensive.
The PIC Money? What PIC Money? That money belongs to retirees and workers currently saving for retirement. The concept of taking retirement savings to blow on grants is insane.
More taxes? We are already very highly taxed. But OK : let’s increase VAT to 20% to broaden the tax base…. I won’t hold my breath in an election year.
If we spent less on public sector salaries and those fewer public servants stole and wasted less we would have enough money to reduce debt and fund infrastructure.
An obvious funding source for Transnet and Eskom are a reduced government wage bill. This is what government spends most of its money on. This is the biggest pie. Another advantage is that the ex-government employees will need to either survive on social grants – this is who they are taking money from while employed as cadres that don’t add value – or actually provide value to the economy through work in the private sector.
This is Africa. We know the money will end up in somebody’s bank account in Dubai. There would be plenty money but, that has been stolen, as usual. So, we look for more money to “liberate” . They have passed laws to get at our medical aid already. What’s next?
Ian : next targets will also be captives.
A property tax in addition to council rates and taxes.
A tax on retirement funds by way of prescribing portion of funds must be invested in rubbish assets like infrastructure bonds.
VERY Likely also : change the inclusion rate on capital gains to 100%
VERY Unlikely : increase VAT rate.
Great journalists check that they have explained abbreviations before ‘printing’. What the hell is a BIG?
Basic Income Grant – PIC = Partners In Crime