The visit by President Cyril Ramaphosa and a delegation from the ANC’s national working committee to KwaZulu-Natal last weekend followed deep concerns about a number of missteps and faux pas by provincial party leaders that have led to the drubbing of the ANC in by-elections.

The party’s losses have taken place mainly since the new KwaZulu-Natal ANC leadership took over, after a fiercely contested provincial conference in July 2022.

The eThekwini metro was placed under a Section 154 intervention, which means the day-to-day decisions and running of the municipality have been removed from politicians and placed on the shoulders of administrator Cassius Lubisi.

Before this announcement, the provincial ANC leadership was caught on the back foot when it was revealed that the KwaZulu-­Natal Department of Education had handed a R2-billion contract to an inexperienced company, owned by connected individuals, to feed millions of learners from poor families in more than 5,000 schools.

The company failed and the contract was suspended, but not before the controversy had tarnished the image of the ruling party.

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula was at pains to explain that the national working committee was not in the province to disband the ANC leadership but “to boost capacity of the provincial leadership”.

This was to be done by appointing a team made up of ANC national executive committee (NEC) members to help the provincial executive committee (PEC) to navigate the period ahead of the general election, which the party has acknowledged will be the toughest it has ever contested.

Mbalula said the working committee had found that “the PEC lacks capacity”.

“They simply don’t have what it takes to deliver this province to the ANC come next year’s elections,” he said.

Glossing over gaps

The PEC’s report to the working committee says the ruling party is not facing any existential threats in KwaZulu-Natal and the party can still win the province in the 2024 general elections.

The report paints a glossy picture of the state of the ANC in almost all the provincial regions: “Most regions are united and cohesive with minor organisational challenges that need ongoing support from the PEC.”

Only in the General Gizenga Mpanza region, the report says, are there serious challenges, with factions at each other’s throats in a battle for supremacy, resulting in a power struggle.

Explaining its below-par performance in by-elections, it says: “Two wards were lost to the opposition, where the ANC dropped and the IFP grew by the same proportion.

“There is a high chance that disgruntled members of the ANC also contributed to the ANC losing by-elections as they mobilised for the IFP.

“This can be suspected in the Ward 2 Msunduzi Local Municipality by-election.

“The PEC … feels very strongly that if we are to succeed in the general elections 2024, we need all provincial league structures properly constituted so that they run campaigns within the sectors they represent and are organising.

“Overall, the ANC is seeing both growth and decline in support in the by-elections and losing wards due to the DA and IFP joint venture tactic. The IFP, funded by the DA, is buying ANC councillors to initiate by-elections where the ANC structures are not strong,” the report states.

It concludes by assuring the working committee members that all is well and “also to give a clear picture that the centre [the PEC] is still holding in the province of KwaZulu-Natal under the difficult circumstances we find ourselves in”.

The Zulu king and traditional leaders

Both the ANC and the IFP have upped the ante to get Zulu King Misuzulu kaZwelithini to bat for them ahead of the 2024 poll. These battles will continue until the elections.

The KwaZulu-Natal ANC and the provincial government it controls are taking flak for the manner in which they are handling issues around the new king in particular, and traditional leadership in general.

Last week, King Misuzulu was heard complaining in a video clip that he was “getting tired of being micromanaged from the premier’s office”.

“If they are so overzealous in telling me what and when to do, they will escalate into telling me what to do in my bedroom and when and how I should make a baby,” he said, adding that he was not getting respect and was not allowed the flexibility to perform his duties.

The visiting ANC delegation went to one of the king’s palaces to pay their respects, bearing 10 oxen and other gifts in an apparent effort to curry favour with him.

Professor Bheki Mngomezulu, a political analyst based at the University of the Western Cape, said, although the traditional leadership should be nonpartisan, political parties exploited the role of traditional leaders for their own electoral good.

He said the issues of the Zulu monarch and traditional leadership would play pivotal roles in the upcoming poll.

“Since the dawn of democracy there has been a wrestle between the ANC and the IFP for the control of the Zulu monarch. This is underpinned by the belief that, if the Zulu king warms to any of the two parties, his subjects would vote for that party,” he said.  

“The KwaZulu-Natal ANC leadership is young and don’t have the gravitas to compete against the likes of the IFP’s Prince [Mangosuthu] Buthelezi and Blessed Gwala, who have developed a strategy to endear themselves to the Zulu monarch in particular, and traditional leaders in general.

“But a visit by the ANC national leadership to pay respect to the Zulu king and bringing him gifts such as cows was a way of charming the monarch and gaining publicity in the process. But it is still too early to determine whether these efforts will bear fruit during the elections,” said Mngomezulu.  

The Jacob Zuma fallout factor

In the first democratic elections in 1994, the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal was beaten by the IFP, getting 32.2% of the vote to the IFP’s 50.3%.

In 1999, when Jacob Zuma had been elected as ANC deputy president and became more visible, the ANC narrowed the gap, garnering 39.3% to the IFP’s 41.9%.

In 2004, when Zuma was the deputy president of the country, the ANC trounced the IFP for the first time, garnering 46.9% of the vote to the IFPs 36.8%. The ANC was able to take over the provincial administration and direct that the capital move from the IFP stronghold of Ulundi to Pietermaritzburg.

In the 2009 poll, when Zuma’s face was on the ballot box as the ANC presidential candidate, the party annihilated the IFP, gaining 62.9% of the vote to the IFP’s 22.4%. The ANC consolidated its lead in 2014 by getting 64.5% of the vote to the IFP’s 10.8%.

In 2019, when Zuma was no longer the ANC leader, the IFP began to regain lost ground by getting 16.3% of the vote.

In the 2021 local government elections, the ANC garnered only 42% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal, losing some key municipalities to the IFP and the DA. In eThekwini it held on to power by a thread, getting the help of smaller opposition parties to elect the mayor and other senior positions.

Mngomezulu said, although Zuma was a polarising figure, he still had clout in the province. “Whether you like or hate him, Zuma is still a crowd-puller. His power and prestige may not be the same as when he was still the president of the country, but he still commands some support in KwaZulu-Natal.

“There are many people who had been traditionally IFP supporters, but they voted for the ANC because of [Zuma]. Now that he is gone they are going back to voting IFP.

“Also, there are many people who are not happy with how Zuma has been treated by the government of the ANC and they are showing their displeasure by not voting for the party, and this is adding to the ANC woes,” Mngomezulu said.

Political analyst Protas Madlala said the ANC delegation’s visit to KwaZulu-Natal was “too little, too late”. He said the PEC had dug itself into a deeper hole through sheer arrogance, the manner in which it had discarded former leaders, and because the provincial government had failed to deliver basic services such as electricity and water.

“There was a time when we thought the IFP was dying, but now Buthelezi and other leaders have revived it. If the current trends continue, the IFP will be the head of the next KwaZulu-Natal government after the 2024 general elections. Unless something miraculous happens between now and next year, the ANC will lose KwaZulu-Natal,” he said.

“The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal is a shadow of its former self. During the times of S’bu Ndebele and Zweli Mkhize, the ANC in the province had strong leadership. I have nothing personal against the current leadership, but they are rudderless – you just don’t know what they are doing.” DM

​​This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R29.