Team Sugar and Cederberg Eerste holding their wards in two competitive contests suggest they are not fly-by-night parties. They won over the voters’ trust in 2021 and retained that trust on Wednesday night. These two local parties provide a blueprint for other aspirant local parties on how to set up shop and remain relevant to local voters. 

KwaZulu-Natal

Ward 31 (Madadeni R Muiskraal) in Newcastle: Team Sugar 50% (31%) ANC 34% (29%) IFP 10%* (22%) Ind-Shabalala 4% EFF 1% (6%). Poll 43% (43%).

The setting: Madadeni R and Muiskraal are townships east of the Newcastle town centre. Newcastle is the largest municipality in the Amajuba District and is one of the key centres of economic activity in northern KwaZulu-Natal. It is known for its steelworks, cement industry and chrome chemical production. The Amajuba District also includes Dannhauser and eMadlangeni (Utrecht).

The 2021 local government election: The overall result in Newcastle was arguably the ANC’s worst in the province. The party lost almost half its seats as the IFP, regional party Team Sugar and the EFF all ate into its impressive majority. The IFP grew from 11 seats to 18 and the EFF from five to eight, while Team Sugar made an impressive debut, winning seven, including two ward seats. The ANC fell from 40 to 22 seats. The IFP was able to win the mayoral chain with support from the EFF, Team Sugar, the DA, ActionSA and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+). Team Sugar walked away with the deputy mayorship, a position occupied by its leader, Musa Thwala. The IFP took the coveted speaker position. 

Team Sugar won the ward by 40 votes in a competitive three-horse race. It beat the ANC by having a greater margin of victory in Muiskraal, than what the ANC had over Team Sugar in Madadeni R. Even though the turnout was slightly higher in Madadeni R and even though just over 50% of the voters were in Madadeni R, the ANC’s poor showing in Muiskraal saw the party lose the seat. Incidentally, the margin of victory was even closer on the proportional representation (PR) ballot where Team Sugar received 27 more votes than the ANC. 

The IFP received between 21% and 22% in the two voting districts, while the EFF received between 6% and 7%. Team Sugar got 26% of the vote in Madadeni R and 37% in Muiskraal. While the ANC won 39% in Madadeni R, it garnered a disappointing 19% in Muiskraal. 

In 2016, the ANC won the ward with 65% of the vote, with the IFP getting 16% and the EFF 11%. The ANC’s performance was worse than its average percentage loss in the municipality. 

The by-election: The election was called after the death of the young ward councillor, Mroza Khumalo. Five candidates threw their names into the hat for this seat – four biggest parties in the ward and an independent candidate. The high-stakes by-election saw the bar raised further when the EFF ended its relationship with the IFP. In theory, the IFP could govern without the EFF’s support in Newcastle, since it has the support of Team Sugar, the DA, ActionSA and the FF+. This gave the IFP and Team Sugar 34 out of 67 seats. A loss of this marginal seat would upend the IFP’s control of Newcastle. The IFP made a last-minute decision to suspend its campaign in the by-election and support Team Sugar. This meant that even though the IFP would be on the ballot, the party was asking its supporters not to vote for it, but for Team Sugar instead. Newcastle was affected by the heavy rains and flooding in the lead-up to the by-election. It remained to be seen whether it would affect the turnout, and whether voters would feel more aggrieved by the IFP-led local government or the ANC provincial and national government. 

Read in Daily Maverick: “Patriotic Alliance’s stunning victory breaks ANC and DA’s 15-year ward-seat dominance in Cape Town” 

Team Sugar retained the ward by winning both voting districts. Its pact with the IFP mostly worked as the latter still received 10% of the vote in the ward. Team Sugar flipped the Madadeni R voting district with 43%, well up from the 26% it received in 2021, with the ANC falling just short with 42%, still up from 39% in 2021. The IFP still had the backing of 12% of voters in Madadeni R, compared with 21% in 2021. Team Sugar was also well up in Muiskraal where the party grew from 37% to 58%. The ANC had some growth here, moving from 19% to 25%.  

The EFF will be disappointed with last place, finishing behind a little-known independent councillor who did not run a very visible campaign. 

This is a big win for Team Sugar, and means that the IFP and the parties that support it in Newcastle have the numbers (34/67 seats) to ensure that the IFP retains the mayoral and the speaker positions, and that Team Sugar retains the deputy mayor position. 

Poll: 43% (43%)

Ward 4 (Town Centre Nordale) in Mtubatuba, uMkhanyakude: IFP 54% (28%) ANC 43% (42%)  EFF 3% (6%) UCDP <1% (1%)

The setting: Ward 4 includes the centre of Mtubatuba, Nordale which is east of the town and the areas of River View which is southwest of the town centre, and Monzi which is southeast of the town centre. Mtubatuba forms part of the broader uMkhanyakude district, which is in the far north of the province, extending from Mtubatuba and St Lucia all the way to the Eswatini and Mozambique border, to places like Ingwavuma, the Ndumo Reserve and just past Kosi Bay. Its seat of power is Mkhuze. 

The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the IFP by 239 votes in a competitive election. Nordale proved key for the ANC. It is the second-most populous district, and the only district of the four where one party won more than 40% of the vote, with the IFP getting 60%. The turnout here was 50%, considerably higher than the 40% average for the ward. The ANC beat the IFP by 163 votes and the latter could not close the gap. Most registered voters are in the Mtubatuba town centre, but the turnout was only 33% here. The ANC pipped the IFP here for first place, while the DA came third. The IFP edged the ANC at River View, while the ANC won by 65 votes over the IFP in Monzi, where the DA came second. The DA came third in the election with 17%.

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor’s resignation triggered the by-election. In the middle of January, the IFP won a seat off the ANC in Mtubatuba when the latter failed to field a candidate. That additional seat gave the IFP some buffer as it meant it was not dependent on the EFF to retain the mayoral chain. The party can rely on the DA, African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and the United Democratic Movement (UDM). Mtubatuba was also affected by the recent fallout between the IFP and the EFF as the deputy mayor was from the EFF. The DA was not on the ballot for the by-election. A key question was whether its supporters would back the IFP. As in Ward 31, the preceding heavy rains and flooding, and whether voters felt more aggrieved by the IFP-led local government or the ANC provincial and national government, were possible factors affecting turnout. 

The IFP won more than 50% of the vote in the by-election and took a second successive ward off the ANC in Mtubatuba by getting 143 votes more than the ANC. The ANC ran into big problems in Nordale, their stronghold in the ward. Their vote share fell from 60% to 44%, while the IFP doubled its percentage support in the ward by moving from 26% to 52%. There was a very low turnout and a low relative turnout in the Mtubatuba town centre voting district. This meant that most of the votes in the by-election were cast in Nordale. The turnout in Nordale was 47%, more than double than the town centre, where it was 23%. 

The IFP also won the Mtubatuba Town Hall voting district in the town centre off the ANC. It won 60% of the vote, higher than the combined total of the IFP (32%) and DA (19%) in 2021. Despite the ANC losing this district to the IFP, it grew slightly from 35% to 37%. The IFP won the Riverview district (Umfolozi Primary School) with 62% of the vote, again slightly higher than what the IFP (31%) and DA (29%) received in 2021. The ANC grew from 29% to 34%.

The results around Monzi farm were interesting. Here the ANC grew from 39% to 57%, with the IFP more than doubling its support from 20% to 42%. The IFP’s total was lower than the combined DA (24%) and IFP (20%) total of 2021. Monzi was the only district the ANC carried in the by-election.

The new Mtubatuba council composition looks like this: IFP 21 seats (20), ANC 14 (15), EFF 4, ACDP 1, DA 1, AIC 1, UDM 1, NFP 1, Independent 1. Total: 45. This win gives the IFP an extra buffer in this hung municipality with the mayoral position. The IFP’s 21 seats plus the single seats of the DA and African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) give the IFP mayor the backing of 23 of the 45 seats. The IFP can also turn to the United Democratic Movement (UDM) or an independent councillor if necessary. The two successive by-election gains for the IFP in Mtubatuba mean that the EFF’s decision to no longer work with the IFP is highly unlikely to result in this municipality shifting back under ANC control. 

Poll: 30% (40%)

Western Cape

Ward 6 (Wupperthal Pakhuis Pass) in Cederberg, West Coast: Cederberg Eerste 47% (44%) ANC 32% (25%) PA (incumbent) 19% (2%) EFF 1% (1%)

The setting: Rooibos tea plantations, the Olifants River, dramatic mountain passes, canopies of spring flowers, the Betjiesfontein riel dancers, isolated valleys and some of the most famous hikes in South Africa. Ward 6 could easily read like a tourist brochure, but to be a ward councillor here, you do need a bakkie, with a spare tyre or two and lots of fuel. Much of the east of the ward borders the Northern Cape. In the north it extends to the border with the most northerly Western Cape municipality – Matzikama. It is 138km from Wupperthal to Paleisheuwel. This involves steep, rutted mountain roads, driving away from the mountains past Clanwilliam over the N7 national road into the Sandveld towards the sea. The distances are vast. The Augsburg Agricultural College Campus voting district follows the Olifants River from just next to the Algeria forestry station to the Matzikama border, with voters scattered along the river on both sides of Clanwilliam, many of whom are employed on the citrus and rooibos farms. The Agterpakhuis Boere Vereeniging Saal voting district in Elizabethfontein is so big and vast that the area of Clanwilliam (Ward 3) can fit into it about 20 times, even though Ward 3 has 10 times more voters. The ward also includes the historic mission station of Wupperthal, the Biedouw Valley, Algeria, the village of Dwarsrivier and the farms around Elandsfontein. 

The Cederberg municipality includes towns like Lamberts Bay and Citrusdal. It is part of the West Coast District which also includes towns such as Malmesbury, Piketberg, Saldanha Bay and Vanrhynsdorp (Matzikama). Cederberg and Matzikama are relatively rural when one considers the whole West Coast District.

The 2021 local government election: Local party Cederberg Eerste (CE) won its first and only ward in Ward 6 when it beat the ANC by 342 votes. It won over many DA voters across the length and breadth of this vast ward, and in turn finished first in five out of the seven voting districts, including the relatively vote-rich Augsburg College district, which has just over a quarter of registered voters in the ward. The party also ran up the numbers in the area around Elizabethfontein. This expanse has just over 15% of registered voters, but CE’s margin of victory was biggest here. 

The ANC won Wupperthal by a very narrow margin. Wupperthal has about one-quarter of registered voters. It also carried Algeria but it has very few voters. The DA fell to third in the ward with 20% of the vote. The FF+ finished a distant fourth with 3%, slightly ahead of the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and GOOD which both got 2%. 

The local government elections saw the ANC finish first in Cederberg with four out of 11 seats, but it lost outright control of Cederberg and was relegated to the opposition benches. CE won three seats, the DA two and the FF+ one. The PA also won a seat. The CE (three), DA (two) and FF+ (one) formed a coalition, with Ruben Richards of CE getting the mayoral chain. 

The by-election: A motion of no confidence was passed against mayor Richards after he was accused of corruption and fraudulent activity. The motion succeeded because of the support of 2 DA councillors, including Cederberg speaker William Farmer. Their votes gave the ANC and the PA the numbers to topple the mayor and the deputy mayor and elect a new speaker. Farmer was voted in as the new mayor of Cederberg. He knew he would be expelled from the DA and lose his seat in the council. He defected to the PA and replaced its lone councillor as the party’s proportional representative in Cederberg. He was re-elected as Mayor after he filled the PA seat, as the DA had not filled one of the 2 vacancies in the municipality, while the other position could not be filled before a by-election was held in Farmer’s old seat. 

He lost his ward in a hard-fought by-election in 2022. The DA won the seat and the status quo returned. CE, the DA and the FF+ had the numbers to get Richards back into the mayoral position and also remove Farmer and the ANC speaker from his post. There were various obstructions, and before Richards could be voted back in, CE’s lone ward councillor, Thomas Waldeck, resigned from the party and defected to the PA. This would be another consequential by-election because if the CE retained this seat, then the CE, DA and FF+ would have the numbers again to take over the municipality from the ANC and the PA. If Waldeck retained his seat under the PA banner, or the ANC won the seat, then the ANC and the PA would have the numbers to form a stable coalition.

The DA and FF+ sat out the by-election and endorsed the CE candidate. It was a mixed festive season for the PA because on the one hand Farmer was still mayor and councillor Waldeck had joined the PA, but two Western Cape leaders of the PA with strong ties to the West Coast district left the PA. Sammy Claassen and Bumper Morgan are veterans of West Coast politics. A key question going to the by-election was whether their departure would affect the PA’s performance. The ANC would have also backed itself as it was the largest party in the municipality and the second-largest in the ward, and with a scenario of Waldeck winning over enough CE voters to drag the CE down below the ANC, but also not winning over quite enough support for the PA to catch the ANC.

Cederberg Eerste (CE) retained the ward by receiving 267 more votes than the ANC. There were a range of shifts in this ward. CE won Algeria off the ANC, but lost ground in Paleisheuwel, which was won by the ANC. CE fell from second to third in vote-rich Wupperthal, where the PA finished first in a very close three-horse race. Turnout was down along the Olifants River in the most vote-rich part of the ward – Augsburg. The PA also hurt CE here, winning 18% of the vote, with the latter winning less than what it received in 2021 – 45%, down from 49%. 

While the support of the DA was crucial to CE retaining the ward, the results suggest that in places like Elandsfontein, Paleisheuwel, and in the vast stretch along the Olifants River, DA voters who showed up did not uniformly back CE, while the PA and ANC benefited from the support of these voters. The endorsements of the DA worked best for CE in the two sparsely populated Algeria and Dwars Rivier districts. 

The ANC will be satisfied with its growth here. The jury is out on whether this was a good result for the PA. It fielded the incumbent candidate but finished third behind the ANC and CE. It won the important Wupperthal district, but its ward candidate is well known there. The party attracted DA voters but did not give the CE/DA the fright it gave them in Lamberts Bay. It won almost 20% of the vote, well up from the 2% in 2021, but received 232 fewer votes than the second-placed ANC. 

The by-election win for CE means that the status quo is restored to Cederberg. It now has three seats again, with the support of the DA (2) and FF+ (1), and a majority in the 11-seat council. This means that CE leader Ruben Richards is likely to be voted in again as mayor, and the current PA mayor, William Farmer, will move to the opposition benches with the ANC deputy mayor and speaker.

Poll: 47% (47%)

Ward 5 (Struisbaai) in Cape Agulhas, Overberg: DA 42% (58%) FF+ 21% (17%) ANC 21% (17%) PA 9% (0) GOOD 5%(<1%) EFF 1%(<1%)  Ind-Olwage 1% (incumbent)

The setting: This ward stands out among all the other 4,467 wards in South Africa: it is on the southernmost tip of Africa. It includes parts of the Agulhas National Park and the famous red-and-white lighthouse. Most of the voters are in Struisbaai. The municipality’s seat is in Bredasdorp, and includes the villages of Arniston and Napier. It is part of the Overberg district which includes Hermanus, Grabouw, Caledon and Swellendam. 

The 2021 local government election: The ward has two voting districts. In Struisbaai Suid, the DA’s big blue wall had orange chinks in it as the FF+ ate into the its big majority there. In Struisbaai Noord, the ANC also lost ground in a voting district which tends to break strongly for it. The number of registered voters is similar in both voting districts, with a slight tip in the scales towards Struisbaai Suid. However, the turnout tends to be higher in the DA stronghold of Struisbaai Suid. This was especially pronounced in the local government elections when 76% of registered voters came out there, while only 50% made their mark in Struisbaai Noord. This resulted in the DA carrying the ward by just under 1,000 votes. 

Read in Daily Maverick: “KZN romp – IFP, DA beat the heat, and their rivals, in Mtubatuba and Msunduzi”

The DA lost its outright majority in the municipality as the FF+ gained a seat on the council. The DA (five seats) with the FF+’s single seat formed a coalition to govern in Cape Agulhas. The ANC (three) and a local party, the Dienslewerings Party (two), make up the 11 seats.

The by-election: Ward councillor Gerhard Olwage’s party membership was terminated, resulting in a ward vacancy. Many candidates rolled up their sleeves to usurp the DA from its Struisbaai perch. The ANC, FF+, GOOD and the PA believed they could make inroads into the ward. Olwage ran for his old seat as an independent. Control of the council was at stake because if the ANC, GOOD or the PA won the ward, the DA and FF+ coalition would lose its majority. The critical factors were whether there would yet again be a big turnout differential between Struisbaai Suid and Struisbaai Noord, how resolute the DA’s support would be in Struisbaai Suid against the efforts of the FF+ and Olwage, and how secure the ANC’s base in Struisbaai Noord was against the DA, PA GOOD and FF+. 

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The DA retained the ward by building a big enough cushion in Struisbaai  Suid where it received 63% of the vote, down from 73% in 2021. This tally allowed the party to withstand the narrowing of the gap in turnout between Struisbaai Suid and Struisbaai Noord and its relatively poor returns in Struisbaai Noord where it fell from second to third place. The DA’s loss of votes to both the PA and FF+ was a trend we saw in 2021. The Struisbaai result supports the idea that these two parties continue to present a challenge to the DA in places like the Overberg and other parts of the Western Cape. 

The FF+ pipped the ANC for silver with 33% of the vote in Struisbaai Suid, up from 23% in 2021. The ANC won in Struisbaai Noord but was down slightly from 2021. This saw the FF+ get one vote more than the ANC in the ward.

The PA won its second successive battle against GOOD in a Western Cape by-election to finish fourth in the by-election and second in the Struisbaai Noord district. This result continues to build on the premise that if the DA falls under 50% in the 2024 provincial election and is unable to form a coalition, the PA will be best positioned to lead that alternative coalition because of results like this and results like the previous round of by-elections where it beat GOOD in Kensington. The Cape Agulhas and Kensington results will give GOOD much pause for thought about why dissatisfied DA voters are choosing the PA over it. 

The by-election win means the DA and FF+ will continue to govern Cape Agulhas. 

Poll: 65% (64%). A note here is that the turnout was up in Struisbaai Noord from 50% to 63%, but down 76% to 66% in Struisbaai Suid. These movements are interesting. The higher turnout in Struisbaai Noord might well have to do with the fact that there were five parties competing for hearts and minds, with, as the result suggests, only two candidates competing for hearts and minds in Struisbaai Suid.

It was not a great night for incumbent candidates who jumped ship or who were forced to jump ship. Gerhard Olwage finished last in Cape Agulhas and Thomas Waldeck might have finished third in Cederberg, but he is now without a job as councillor.

The next round of by-elections is on 22 February when the ANC will defend a super marginal seat in Sol Plaatje (Kimberley) in the Northern Cape and the DA will defend a super marginal seat and one competitive seat in Blue Crane Route (Somerset East) in the Eastern Cape. DM