Ward 9 (Hoho Ebaswazini) in Mtubatuba, uMkhanyakude, KZN: IFP 77% (36%) EFF 15% (5%) UCDP 7% (4%) UDM 1% (<1%)

The setting: Ward 9 is west of the town of Mtubatuba and west of the Nkatha River. Most of the voters in the ward reside in Hoho, with a sizable chunk living in Ebaswazini. Ebaswazini is below the R618 which links Mtubatuba with Hlabisa. Mtubatuba forms part of the broader uMkhanyakude district, which is in the far north of the province, extending from Mtubatuba and St Lucia all the way to the Eswatini and Mozambique border, to places like Ingwavuma, the Ndumo Reserve and just past Kosi Bay. Its seat of power is Mkhuze. 

The 2021 local government election: The ANC won a tight race against the IFP as only 126 votes separated the two. The ANC won 41% of the vote. The DA finished a distant third with 7%. The ANC won all three voting districts in the ward, of which Ebaswazini was the most competitive, with the ANC getting 42% of the vote and the IFP 40%. No party won an outright majority in Mtubatuba. The IFP won 19 of the 45 available seats, with the ANC getting 16. The EFF finished third in Mtubatuba with four seats. Six parties won a single seat: the DA, National Freedom Party (NFP), United Democratic Movement (UDM), African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), African Independent Congress (AIC) and an independent ward councillor. The IFP holds the mayoral chain and the speaker’s position, with the EFF sitting in the chair of the deputy mayor. 

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor resigned. Big drama followed as the ANC failed to register a candidate for the by-election, which meant it forfeited a crucial seat in a hung municipality before the by-election even took place. The DA did not participate in the by-election either. The IFP romped home in the by-election, winning all three voting districts in the ward by a landslide. What will be especially encouraging for the party is that despite the ANC not being on the ballot, and it being a swelteringly hot day, the turnout was not dramatically down from the local government elections and that the number of spoilt ballots was low. 

The IFP won 80% of the vote in the two Hoho voting districts, with the EFF obtaining 18% of the vote in Hoho. In Ebaswazini, the IFP took 72% of the vote, with the United Christian Democratic Party (UCDP) finishing second in the district with 18%. 

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The IFP has now won three consecutive wards off the ANC in the past three rounds of by-elections. It must be stated that the by-election race in Mthonjaneni was extremely close between the IFP and the ANC, the IFP win in eThekwini (Umkomaas) was influenced by the DA sitting out the by-election and supporting the IFP, and in Mtubatuba, the ANC was not able to field a candidate. However, a win is a win, and this builds a great narrative for the IFP. 

Poll 42% (57%)

Ward 28 (Bombay Heights Northdale) in Msunduzi, Umgungundlovu, KZN: DA: (71% PR) Ind-Naicker ANC (14% PR) Ind-Ramnunan EFF (2% PR) PA (1% PR)

The setting: Ward 28 is north of the Pietermaritzburg city centre. Bombay Heights is on the edge of the municipal boundary, while Northdale and Newholme sit below it. 

The 2021 local government election: The DA won here by a landslide, with the ANC a distant second on the proportional ballot. The ANC was the only other party to get into double figures, with a range of parties getting 2% or less. The DA won 62% of the ward ballot vote, with the ANC making a slight improvement, getting 15%. The DA was hurt by an independent candidate who finished third with 9% of the vote. DA candidate, Lucky Naicker, was elected to serve a second term. 

Read in Daily Maverick: “ANC and DA split the win for municipal by-elections in Gauteng’s West Rand”

The by-election: Councillor Naicker had his DA membership terminated after serious allegations of sexual harassment. This initiated the by-election. Naicker wanted to finish his term and believed that he was dealt with unfairly. 

The DA easily fended off the duel from Naicker, but had to contend with the ANC making good inroads into this traditional DA ward. Voters had to contend with an oppressively hot day as temperatures soared in the capital. The ANC did especially well in Bombay Heights, where it went from 21% to 38% at the Kharina Secondary School voting district and jumped from 8% to 32% at the Suncrest Primary School voting district, with the DA’s respective returns going from 63% to 49% at Kharina Secondary School and falling from 75% to 58% at Suncrest Primary. 

The DA better withstood the challenge from the ANC and the two independents in Northdale and Newholme. 

Poll: 34% (43%)

The by-election in Dannhauser, KwaZulu-Natal, was postponed due to concerns about the integrity of the voters’ roll. The next round of by-elections is on 25 January when the EFF will defend a super marginal seat in Polokwane and the ANC will defend two safe rural seats in Blouberg, Limpopo, and Mbhashe in the Eastern Cape. DM