Limpopo

Ward 10 (Makgofe Blood River) in Polokwane, Capricorn: EFF 47% (48%) ANC 42% (47%) ActionSA 10% AACUM1%  ACDP <1% (1%) POA <1% (<1%)

The setting: Ward 10 is just north of Seshego. It also sits next to Perskebult. The ward comprises Makgofe, Blood River and Dairing Extension. It is near the old Aganang municipality border which was incorporated into Polokwane. Polokwane is the provincial capital of Limpopo and the most vote-rich area in the province. The ANC won more than 90% of the vote here in the 2011 local government elections. The emergence of the EFF saw this once super-safe ANC ward become a battleground ward in 2016, with the EFF winning it off the ANC in a by-election just after the local government elections in 2016, where the EFF won 54% of the vote, compared with the ANC’s 39%. 

The 2021 local government elections: Limpopo was an outlier province for the ANC in these elections, with the party all but matching its 2016 showing. While it lost significant ground in provinces like Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State, its voters in Limpopo remained confident in the party’s promises. In Polokwane, the largest city in Limpopo, the ANC  not only matched its 2016 showing in 2021, but improved on it. The party gained five seats and went from 57% to 60%. This growth was largely on the back of the EFF which lost six seats and saw its percentage vote share decline from 28% to 23%. Polokwane was a success story for the ANC in 2021. This uptick in ANC support saw the party come agonisingly close to winning Ward 10 off the EFF. The ANC closed a 15% gap between it and the EFF to a 1% margin as the EFF received 48% of the vote and the ANC 47%. The EFF held on by 34 votes. On the proportional representation (PR) ballot, it was the reverse of the ward ballot, with the ANC winning 48% and the EFF 47%, falling 21 votes short of the ANC. Ward 10 is the definition of a super-marginal swing ward. 

The by-election: The EFF ward councillor died. Until 2011, Ward 10 was dominated by one party — the ANC. This changed in the three elections held in the ward since 2016, as it became an arm-wrestle between the ANC and the EFF. That was until ActionSA pitched its green caravan in Ward 10, marking it as its first election north of Tshwane, its first by-election in Limpopo — the third province in which it has contested a by-election and the fourth in which it has contested an election. ActionSA fielded a well-known candidate who was a former ANC branch treasurer. The ANC held a large rally in the ward just before the election and the EFF rolled out graders emblazoned with red EFF flags to fix the poorly maintained roads in the wards. The party also donated water tanks to the residents of the ward to help them with the water challenges. 

The EFF won the by-election by largely consolidating what it achieved in 2021. It got its supporters out in Blood River.It also made small gains in Blood River, with the ANC losing ground there. At the Molautsi Secondary School district in Blood River, the ANC’s percentage vote share declined from 38% to 31%, with the EFF creeping up from 57% to 59%. ActionSA won 9%. There was a differential turnout in the EFF’s favour when one compares Blood River with the more competitive Makgofe voting districts. Only 28% of registered voters came out to vote at Makgofe High School. This was far lower than the ward average of 44%. The EFF also flipped this voting district, going from 44% to 45%, with the ANC falling from 51% to 35%. ActionSA won 19%. This was its best showing in the ward.

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The turnout was relatively high in the ANC stronghold of Dairing Extension, but the ANC lost some ground to ActionSA as the former’s percentage vote share dropped from 62% to 56%. ActionSA won 10% of the vote, with the EFF making a slight improvement from 32% to 33%.

The EFF received 152 more votes than the ANC in the by-election, and in turn won Ward 10 for the third consecutive election.

Poll: 44% (44%)

Ward 17 (Raditshaba Grootpan) in Blouberg, Capricorn: ANC (78%) EFF (17%) Ind-Davhana Ind-Rakgoropo Ind-Makgwathana

The setting: Ward 17 is a rural ward, west of Alldays, between Alldays and the Zingela nature reserve. It is near the R572 and R561 regional roads, close to the Botswana border. There are numerous villages and settlements in this vast ward. Blouberg municipality is northwest of Polokwane, with its seat of power in Senwabarwana. Blouberg is the northernmost municipality in the Capricorn District. This district also includes the Polokwane, Lepelle-Nkumpi and Molemole municipalities. 

Read in Daily Maverick: “KZN romp – IFP, DA beat the heat, and their rivals, in Mtubatuba and Msunduzi”

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC matched its 33-seat total from 2016, with the EFF losing one seat as it went from eight to seven in the council. The only party to gain seats in Blouberg in 2021 was the Congress of the People (COPE) which doubled its seat total from one to two. The ANC won this ward by a landslide. Of the seven voting districts, only the most populated (Raditshaba) saw any real contest from the EFF. The ANC dominated the other six. 

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor died. What made this by-election unique was that there were more independent candidates on the ballot than party-affiliated candidates, with three independents hoping to make a dent in an ANC stronghold. 

The ANC lost ground to both the EFF and independent candidate Mokgesi Davhana in a by-election result that was closer than what the ruling party would have anticipated. It lost two of the seven voting districts. In Raditshaba, the ANC’s percentage vote share went from 52% to 37%, while the EFF galloped from 45% to 61%. Raditshaba has about 20% of the voters in the ward. Davhana won the Mpebe Primary School district in the village of Modimvuhusi, with the ANC’s percentage vote share declining from 92% to 33%. Davhana won 50% of the vote there, and the EFF went from 5% to 17%.

In 2o21, the ANC won more than 70% of the vote in six of the seven voting districts, and received more than 80% of the vote in five of the seven voting districts. Its best voting district result in the by-election was 64%, in Arrie.

In this by-election, the most votes were cast in Grootpan at the Mahadikana High School district. The EFF went from 13% to 34%, while the ANC fell from 82% to 63%.

The ANC will be confident that the Davhana voters will return to the party in the 2024 election, but the EFF has firmly established itself now in an ANC outpost near the Botswana border.

Poll: 62% (49%)

Eastern Cape

Ward 5 (Komkhulu KuGilandoda) in Mbhashe, Amathole: ANC 77% (78%) UDM 18% (10%) EFF 5% (10%)

The setting: Ward 5 is rural, and one of the few in the country where polls close early because of their geography and location. Polls closed here at 7pm instead of 9pm. There are 10 villages scattered across this ward and 11 voting stations. It lies near the Bholotwa River, northwest of the principal town of Mbhashe-Idutywa. Mbhashe traverses both sides of the N2 national road and extends to the coast. It includes Willowvale and the Dwesa-Cwebe Nature Reserve. It forms part of the Amathole District.

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC fell shy of the 80% mark, with the more interesting battle being between the EFF and the United Democratic Movement (UDM), with the former edging the UDM for second place. The ANC won 10 out of 11 voting districts, with the EFF winning one. The ANC won more than 95% of the vote in three districts and 99% in two. It was literally the only electoral game in town for a number of the villages in Ward 5. The party won 45 of the 63 seats in the municipality, losing two in the election. The UDM went into the election as the official opposition and again emerged as the second-most popular party in the municipality, winning eight seats, down from nine in 2016. The EFF won four seats, up from two in 2016. 

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor died. The ANC, EFF and UDM were on the ballot. The ANC won by a landslide. It all but retained the percentage it received in 2021, while the UDM beat the EFF for second place. The main movement here was from the EFF to the UDM. The ANC received more than 90% of the vote in five of the 11 voting districts. While it was not able to match the 99% it received in two of the voting districts in 2021, it would be satisfied with the 98% return in the village of Sinqumeni, up from the 95% it got there in the local government elections.

Poll: 43% (44%)

Next by-elections

The next round of by-elections will be on 8 February when the DA will cede a safe seat in Cape Town since it failed to register a candidate. The ANC will defend a safe seat in Dikgatlong (Delportshoop) in the Northern Cape. DM