Daily Maverick
Dailymaverick logo

Opinionistas

This article is an Opinion, which presents the writer’s personal point of view. The views expressed are those of the author/authors and do not necessarily represent the views of Daily Maverick.

This article is more than a year old

Democracy 2024 (Day One) — 15 days to reshape a country

Day One: The centre holds — the Zunami fizzles.
Ferial Haffajee
By Ferial Haffajee
2 Jun 2024
Facebook
48

South Africans sent a huge message in how we chose to vote. No single party won a mandate to govern, so the next 15 days will be crucial in shaping our country to benefit its people and return our trust in the political class. South Africa’s political parties have 15 days to negotiate a government, before the National Assembly sits to elect a president.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections dashboard

We will keep a close eye on coalition-making, write a simple daily assessment of our progress, and see if the process benefits the people or the patrons. 

Day One should give you some comfort, although it is early days. On 1 June, former president Jacob Zuma, who has exploded on to the political scene with his MK party, threatened the IEC in unprecedented ways. He wanted a recount or a revote.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Jacob Zuma’s MK party wants a revote — but what does the law say?

On 2 June, the electoral body decided to continue with the final results ceremony, which formally closes Election ’24. The evening ended on a hopeful note for democracy as the IEC chairperson, Mosotho Moepye, presented the results. These results are tectonic for South Africa. The ANC has lost its electoral majority for the first time in 30 years.

The party has been gracious in defeat since the results started clarifying at the IEC results centre at the Gallagher Convention Centre on Thursday, 30 May, the day after the elections. Its chairperson, Gwede Mantashe, has repeatedly said that the election marks a democratic consolidation, while its head of elections, Nomvula Mokonyane, has also repeatedly said that the party will do what is right for South Africa.

President Cyril Ramaphosa reinforced this message when he said that the people’s will was clear, and he accepted the results. He also thanked the IEC with a depth of gratitude that washed away Zuma’s attack. He spoke about finding common ground and doing what was for the greater good of South Africans.

All of that bonhomie can change in the cut and thrust of coalition-making. However, the first day revealed that institutional strength and constitutional democracy are still more robust than the politics of chaos, and we should all work to keep it that way.

For its part, the DA has been pragmatic as the second-largest party, and its announcement on 2 June that it had formed a negotiation team and was formally ending the Multi-Party Charter coalition creates clarity. The party’s team is Helen Zille, Ivan Meyer, Siviwe Gwarube, Alan Winde, Tony Leon and Ryan Coetzee.

It is a strategic and tactical team. Leon has a good rapport across the table with the ANC and the other parties which are likely to form either a government of national unity (GNU) or a grand coalition of the centre that will best serve South Africa.

The police minister, Bheki Cele, also fronted a Natjoints briefing on Day One, during which he clarified that any post-election violence would be dealt with firmly.

All these are necessary signals that institutional democracy is flexing its muscles against agents of chaos and possible insurrection. The democratic media will also have its hands full over the next fortnight to ensure that a massive disinformation drive to prevent a grand coalition or government of national unity does not derail the people’s vote.

On the first day of talks, a democratic spirit won over the Zunami of chaos. However, with agents of State Capture roaming everywhere and still in the governing party, there is a long way to go. See you for Day Two tomorrow. DM

Comments

Sergei Rostov Jun 3, 2024, 08:13 AM

Come on, just say it: "Thank you DA voters".

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:45 PM

Yes indeed.

William Kelly Jun 3, 2024, 08:35 AM

Lol. The fact that the DAnhas an optics problem cannot be more strongly emphasized than it was in this election. Against a massive loss by the ruling party the DA recovered a tiny portion of its losses from the previous election. And the number of voters that did not vote increased substantially. This election, for the DA is exactly the failure that the press writes about. They need the centrist black vote and theybare not getting it because every black leader they have had they could not work with. If there are any resignations afoot, Steenhuizen has to be the first tongo, but true to form he cannot see why! That all said its immaterial now. As much as I dont agree with Zille in her position there is no doubt whatsoever that she is right person, along with Leon, to handle these negotiations. I would have loved to see Pappas in the mix but the dearth of black faces is going to be used to fuel the DA is racist narrative that they have done bugger all to correct. Principles are great, but we have a country's future at stake and if the DA had managed its principles better in the election it would be playing from a far stronger hand. Stil, it is what we have left now and there is bugger all any ofnus can do about it. Godspeed to both teams.

Hari Seldon Jun 3, 2024, 09:47 AM

400 seats in the assembly - by my count ANC / EFF / MKP / PA coalition has 265 seats. 268 seats are required to change the constitution by my calcs (67%). This coalition needs just another 3 seats which it can get from PAC / Al Jama-ah etc. Then it would be good bye South Africa. Reserve Bank gone, other hey requirements in constitution gone. Markets will totally tank, rand will go north of 30, inflation will skyrocket, bye bye. Lets pray the DA and ANC can work out a stable arrangement.

mandy.crerar Jun 3, 2024, 11:06 AM

The biggest task ahead of all political parties is to find out why 41% of voters stayed at home instead of using the power of their vote, and to convince them that they must get out of bed next time!

Hari Seldon Jun 3, 2024, 11:32 AM

And why they did not at least vote for Rise Mzansi or Action SA or BOSA? - its mostly non-white voters dissatisfied with the ANC - probably aspirational middle class or middle class. That's the most disappointing thing for me with this election - why did the black middle class not vote for Rise Mzansi or Action SA at least?

mandy.crerar Jun 3, 2024, 11:12 AM

The most important task ahead of all political parties is to find out why 41% of voters stayed at home instead of using the power of their vote, and to convince them that next time it's worth their while to get out of bed to vote!

superjase Jun 3, 2024, 11:27 AM

while it is clear that the DA is not a white party in terms of who votes for it (only 7% of ZA is white, and their support is in the region of 3 times that number; not quite the most accurate way of looking at the numbers, i know, but it serves its purpose here), it is mind-boggling how white their leadership continues to be. a six-person negotiation team, with a breakdown of 4 white, 1 coloured and 1 black!. this, coupled with the very real optics of prominent white leaders - zille, steenhuisen, winde, hill-lewis (can you even name a prominent non-white DA leader?) - means that the DA will always struggle to shake its "for white people" image. i am not suggesting here that the DA is racist, but the question that it needs to answer is this: how can it possibly be that 30 years into our democracy the DA struggles to find strong, capable black leaders (and retain them!)? and then still claim to be merit-based and non-racial? it's such a pity that the DA (the best administrators in the country) continues to shoot itself in the foot all the time in terms of making themselves believably non-racial. mmusi was let go after disappointing results in 2019 (he failed to grow the party). i wonder whether we'll see the same from steenhuisen (after failing to grow the party)?

Jean Racine Jun 3, 2024, 01:07 PM

Just to add, it is quite clear that the DA and its MPC severely under-performed and did not attract any new voters, when one considers that the ANC's 2019 tally (55%) was basically split in 2024 between ANC and MKP. More damning is the 2019-2024 MPC comparison: Party 2019. 2024. DA. 20.77 21.81 FF+. 2.38 1.36 ACDP. 0.84 0.60 UDM. 0.45 0.49 Cope. 0.27 0.09 IFP. 3.38 3.85 Action SA 0.00 1.19 Basically, the DA got the right-wingers back from the FF+, who couldn't abide Maimane, and a few stragglers from the ACDP and COPE. Pathetic, really, and one wonders whether Messrs Leon, Coetzee, Le Roux will again saddle up for a postmortem and recommendations on Steenhuizen's abject failure.

charlrichardengelbrec Jun 3, 2024, 02:20 PM

The DA screwed up quite badly in the Schweizer-Reinecke incident in 2019, and consequently lost votes to the FF+. They corrected themselves and regained those votes in 2024. Why did the new 'black' parties do so badly? Perhaps there is something in their leadership that is unacceptable to black voters? Have you considered that the vast majority of voters are just intellectually incompetent, hopelessly myopic, or otherwise afflicted, and that there is nothing any reasonable political party can do to alter that? The people are resistant to reason, so blame the DA, it is the politically correct thing to do. Is this your twisted white guilt playing out?

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:48 PM

You should thank your lucky stars for the DA. Without the DA this country would have already gone to hell in a handbasket. This propensity to defy logic and reason and perpetually moan is just beyond me.

charlrichardengelbrec Jun 3, 2024, 02:27 PM

Jason, join a party of your choice, work your way up the ranks and get elected, so you can have some influence and everyone can benefit from your superior wisdom. Otherwise, crawl back to momma's house to cry in the bathroom.

Andre Swart Jun 3, 2024, 02:27 PM

'What matters is not whether the cat is black or white ... what matters is whether the cat can catch mice!' The mice multiplied in RSA and they 'emptied the bread bin' because of lazy FAT CATS! When will the irrelevant skin colour OBSESSION end ... ? ... that's when the RSA citizens GROW UP?

Fernando Moreira Jun 3, 2024, 11:53 AM

Incredible performance by the DA ! Helen Zille might yet save South Africa ! Completely contrary to the DA bashing media ! Good luck to South Africa if the ANC , EFF or MK tie up ! It is scary how many vote on populaism ...no thought about State Capture , , The Zondo Commission , the horrific July Riots , Life Esidimeni , Eskom, the downgrades, the poverty and no thought to the party /s that caused this in plain sight I pray for cool heads and that God smiles on this beautiful country ( but not boring)

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:51 PM

Yes, we are at a pivotal moment in SA. If the ANC are open to a better country for all and are able to approach coalition with the DA with the desire to weed out the corrupt and move our country towards a law-abiding more prosperous nation then we all have a bright future ahead of us. In fact with likely most of the ANC "problem children" having rushed off to the MK, the ANC is hopefully in the best position it has ever been to clean house. And I wish them all the best with doing so!

Tim Price Jun 3, 2024, 01:31 PM

64% of the voters supported the ANC MK/EFF. That is a shocking indictment of the mentality of the majority voters and their abject failure to hold the non performing corrupt parties to account. Perhaps its a vote for a finger in the corruption pie? I don't think much will change. Just more infighting between the ANC/MK with the EFF yapping round the edge of the fight.

Jean Racine Jun 3, 2024, 02:53 PM

In a fictional country (RSA) there are 43 million cola customers. Of those, 15,3 million are so disenchanted with the product offering, they've stopped consuming cola altogether. Market research shows 27,7 million still keen to buy cola. Last market survey in 2019, about 15 million actually bought cola, with Company A holding 55% share. Company B held 20,8% and aware of the extensive market represented by both lapsed (15,3mil) and still keen (12,7mil) cola customers, had booted its CEO and gave the new hire 5 years to turn the situation around. Suffice to say, any Board worth the name, would fire the CEO for rank incompetence, if - in his explanation for growing market share to only 21,8% of the 16 million who actually bother to still buy cola (representing 8,8% of the 43 million cola customers) after 5 years of prolonged defective product from the market leader Company A, and millions of rands for the campaign - he turned around and blamed...the mentality of the customers who just won't buy his product!

Andre Swart Jun 3, 2024, 02:06 PM

The split in the ANC rid the ANC of the RET morons ... leaving the 'New Dawn'ers'. This 'split' is a 'blessing in disguise' for the modern, free market faction in the ANC. The split 'sanitized' the remaining ANC of the communist ideologists, state capturers, and blood thirsty Zulu tribalists. The remaining New Dawn ANC, is much more compatible with FREE MARKET countries and locally, with the DA+ MPC. The ANC split is GOOD for a prosperous SA in future.

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:52 PM

I agree wholeheartedly.

abmeyer Jun 3, 2024, 02:27 PM

Listening to Dr Frans Cronje, and his pointed comment about publications such as Daily Maverick, editor Ferial Haffejee and it's cartoonist Zapiro, and multi-year sarcastic comments about, the DA, and especially Helen Zille... The 4th estate, like Zunami overplaying it's hand... Etu Brutus....

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:56 PM

Exactly - it defeats me how much people fight the truth if it doesn't suit their narrative, no matter how glaringly obvious it is.

A Rosebank Ratepayer Jun 3, 2024, 06:38 PM

The wildly swinging directions of the comments in this message stream, and there doesn’t seem to be any RET populists which would make the pendulum swings even wilder, are a snap shot of the challenge facing the politicians embarking on coalition forming as well as the country as a whole. There are few examples of respectful enquirer (although there are some) and lots of petulant judgements in the comments above. Optics count whether one thinks they should or not. It’s why most people wanting to make a good impression dress smartly instead of like tramps. The adage, “there is only one chance to make a 1st impression,” is true. How one says things is as important as what’s said, even if the what is correct. Being supercilious, patronizing and often insulting makes the task of convincing others much more difficult, even if one is right. The DA’s negotiating team should have included Pappas. He’s young, fluent in Zulu, appears to have made a huge impact in Umgeni (haven’t visited it myself). Obtaining and then running the 1st DA municipality in KZN is a massive achievement. The deputy mayor Sandile Mnikathi was also part of that team. Most of the DA negotiating team should be sitting off stage as handlers, not in the limelight. Imagine if the front team were Leon, Pappas, Mnikathi, Gwarube, and Lindiwe Mazibuko (if she could be brought back). In all such negotiations there are always caucus breakaways when the counsel of the elders can be sought.