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Democracy 2024 (Day One) — 15 days to reshape a country

Day One: The centre holds — the Zunami fizzles.

South Africans sent a huge message in how we chose to vote. No single party won a mandate to govern, so the next 15 days will be crucial in shaping our country to benefit its people and return our trust in the political class. South Africa’s political parties have 15 days to negotiate a government, before the National Assembly sits to elect a president.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections dashboard

We will keep a close eye on coalition-making, write a simple daily assessment of our progress, and see if the process benefits the people or the patrons. 

Day One should give you some comfort, although it is early days. On 1 June, former president Jacob Zuma, who has exploded on to the political scene with his MK party, threatened the IEC in unprecedented ways. He wanted a recount or a revote.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Jacob Zuma’s MK party wants a revote — but what does the law say?

On 2 June, the electoral body decided to continue with the final results ceremony, which formally closes Election ’24. The evening ended on a hopeful note for democracy as the IEC chairperson, Mosotho Moepye, presented the results. These results are tectonic for South Africa. The ANC has lost its electoral majority for the first time in 30 years.

The party has been gracious in defeat since the results started clarifying at the IEC results centre at the Gallagher Convention Centre on Thursday, 30 May, the day after the elections. Its chairperson, Gwede Mantashe, has repeatedly said that the election marks a democratic consolidation, while its head of elections, Nomvula Mokonyane, has also repeatedly said that the party will do what is right for South Africa.

President Cyril Ramaphosa reinforced this message when he said that the people’s will was clear, and he accepted the results. He also thanked the IEC with a depth of gratitude that washed away Zuma’s attack. He spoke about finding common ground and doing what was for the greater good of South Africans.

All of that bonhomie can change in the cut and thrust of coalition-making. However, the first day revealed that institutional strength and constitutional democracy are still more robust than the politics of chaos, and we should all work to keep it that way.

For its part, the DA has been pragmatic as the second-largest party, and its announcement on 2 June that it had formed a negotiation team and was formally ending the Multi-Party Charter coalition creates clarity. The party’s team is Helen Zille, Ivan Meyer, Siviwe Gwarube, Alan Winde, Tony Leon and Ryan Coetzee.

It is a strategic and tactical team. Leon has a good rapport across the table with the ANC and the other parties which are likely to form either a government of national unity (GNU) or a grand coalition of the centre that will best serve South Africa.

The police minister, Bheki Cele, also fronted a Natjoints briefing on Day One, during which he clarified that any post-election violence would be dealt with firmly.

All these are necessary signals that institutional democracy is flexing its muscles against agents of chaos and possible insurrection. The democratic media will also have its hands full over the next fortnight to ensure that a massive disinformation drive to prevent a grand coalition or government of national unity does not derail the people’s vote.

On the first day of talks, a democratic spirit won over the Zunami of chaos. However, with agents of State Capture roaming everywhere and still in the governing party, there is a long way to go. See you for Day Two tomorrow. DM

Comments

Errol.price Jun 3, 2024, 02:56 AM

South Africa cannot endure indefinitely as a unitary state. The sensible option would be for the Cape and Kwa-Zulu Natal to leave as autonomous regions. Unfortunately that will not not happen because there are few with the necessary courage to admit the obvious.

David Marsh Jun 3, 2024, 06:13 AM

Or Errol think the other way - thanks to colonial history a United States of Azania is a more progressive step. A federal arrangement devolving more to power to states (now provinces) but including Namibia, Zimbabwe, Zambia Malawi and Botswana. All are already quite integrated with infrastructure and language not to mention population movement. We will probably need a world war to shake things up enough to get movement in this direction but there is a strong economic case

Steve Davidson Jun 3, 2024, 07:12 AM

Zimbabwe?? You have to be joking, surely.

Mark K Jun 3, 2024, 07:49 AM

I agree that an expanded federal republic of southern African states makes a lot of economic sense, particularly if a lot of autonomy is devolved to provincial level within states. I would include Zimbabwe. I think your worry is about ZANU-PF and their catastrophic record of misgovernance in Zimbabwe. This is a understandable. But, in a United States of Southern Africa, the number of their supporters is diluted. They are likely to dominate in some parts of Zimbabwe but not at state or federal level. A good thing, surely? And Zimbabwe would bring huge agricultural and mining sector potential to the USSA federal republic.

Antoine van Gelder Jun 3, 2024, 07:08 PM

The other thing Zimbabwe would bring is a highly educated voting populace desperate for options other than ZANU-PF and their ilk. Viva Azania!

David Walker Jun 3, 2024, 01:06 PM

I agree. Definitely not Zimbabwe. But we could start with an offer to Lesotho? And devolve more responsibility to the provinces.

Antoine van Gelder Jun 3, 2024, 07:16 PM

The whole point of bringing in Zimbabwe is that ZANU-PF would no longer be able to control elections the way they have been. That, unfortunately, is also the reason why it would be near impossible to convince Zimbabwe to join. It's an interesting question though, what would a deal look like that would convince the autocrats to release the golden goose in exchange for gaining a couple more decades before the Zimbabwean folk decide to go full France on them?

Denise Smit Jun 3, 2024, 07:40 AM

EFF speaking here?

J vN Jun 3, 2024, 05:14 AM

In addition to the ANC, the big, big losers in the election were the liberal press, who for years have spared no effort in trashing the DA. Multiple journalists on this site, such as Rebecca Davis and Melanie Verwoerd, and the little beta males over at News24, Aapdriaan Basson et al, carp, yowl and complain about the DA. They moan and scream about the white leadership of the DA. They wet their little panties about the DA rejecting racist AA and racist EE. As Frans Cronje puts it, the DA has to campaign against the liberal media too. Hundreds of millions of corporate money were then wasted on supposed alternatives to the DA, in the form of Rise Mzansi and Bosa, only for these to get slaughtered in the election, with a paltry two seats each. These two offer exactly what the little News24 beta males and the journalists here regularly scream and yowl about; black leaders and the adoption of racist AA and racist BEE. Except the black electorate clearly don't want this. No, it is only the little virtue-signaling journos who fantasized about this. The black electorate wants full-on socialist, racist parties, like MK. Will the journos whose fantasies and DA trashing have been shown up so badly, now see the error of their ways? If I was them, I'd resign in disgrace and go sell t-shirts at the flee market, after their years-long trashing of the DA completely humiliated them.

General K Jun 3, 2024, 06:38 AM

I really beg to differ a bit on certain issues. The greatest challenge in us as individuals is to accept criticism we are too protective. Be it sports, politics, tribes, race etc. Journalists did point out 2 critical issues ANC bad performance which mainly came as a result of the emergence of MK DA also did badly in all earnest. When the biggest party loses 17% and the second biggest party gains only +1% that is failure. There is a need for a great rethink on party strategy which What these Journalists advocated for. If in the next elections ANC lose 20% more.. and DA does nothing again... it means we are going to have a new governmening party that is not DA. Again people tend to vote on identity politics black, white, mixed race, tribe, religion... obvious this an inheritance from our past. To expect a black person to vote a perceived colored party is like expecting a white person to vote a black party.. it happens but takes time to build that trust. It even seems DA simply took votes from FF+

Steve Davidson Jun 3, 2024, 07:24 AM

Have you ever been to the Western Cape? If so, you wouldn't be spouting the garbage above. It is the ONLY properly managed province in SA by a country mile. But that has nothing to do with colour, no matter how you try to racistically twist it. It is managed by competent and honest people of ALL colours who are doing a fantastic job that should be recognized as the only way out for this benighted country. But I wouldn't expect you to understand that.

Margi Jensen Jun 3, 2024, 09:47 AM

Well said

Denise Smit Jun 3, 2024, 07:49 AM

Commenters in the likes of you reenforce the perceived coloured party (must say new description of the DA, usually it is "white". You obviously voted for RM with his racial baiting of the DA saying how can white people represent black people, similar stance. Show me a more diverse party than the DA and count the number of non white people who voted for the DA because they deliver and do not tote race

J vN Jun 3, 2024, 07:50 AM

If you read the regular whining about the DA on this site, perpetrated by the likes of Melanie Verwoerd and Rebecca Davis, the DA would have lost badly. Except it didn't. It grew slightly. As for voting on the basis of identity, the last time I checked Zibi, Mashaba and Maimane looked pretty much like African Africans, but they did extremely poorly, considering the hundreds of millions that corporate SA lavished on their parties. So no, it's not about identity only. Black voters clearly want racist, socialist parties, like the EFF, MK and the ANC, that promise a commie paradise and hint that they will chase whites into the sea. Black racism is alive and well in SA.

Denise Smit Jun 3, 2024, 08:39 AM

I agree 100%. Mbalula and Ramaphoza complained they the ANC were up against the media, but the same applied to the DA on the DM platform

Hidden Name Jun 3, 2024, 09:11 AM

Actually no - it comes down to social class. The growth of the DA will likely be constrained by the growth of the countries middle classes. Certainly in the lower unemployed/blue collar classes, things like identity politics will be a great draw - its easy to lead people who wont be giving up anything to follow badly thought out social policies. Its only once you are in the middle classes that you start to realise how much of everyone else's burden you are carrying. Which is roughly when the majority will swing away from the silly identity and socialist policies to something more sustainable and sane. Everyone votes their own self interest, although having said that, I do feel like the somewhat rabid and unsupportable attacks the media likes to make on DA leaders are somewhat baffling. Perhaps they are just trying to do their jobs - which in the end is to sell stories. Still seems massively unbalanced, though.

Geoff Coles Jun 3, 2024, 09:48 AM

Apparently in Khayalitsha, the DA vote more than trebled to 7%

General K Jun 3, 2024, 06:38 AM

I really beg to differ a bit on certain issues. The greatest challenge in us as individuals is to accept criticism we are too protective. Be it sports, politics, tribes, race etc. Journalists did point out 2 critical issues ANC bad performance which mainly came as a result of the emergence of MK DA also did badly in all earnest. When the biggest party loses 17% and the second biggest party gains only +1% that is failure. There is a need for a great rethink on party strategy which What these Journalists advocated for. If in the next elections ANC lose 20% more.. and DA does nothing again... it means we are going to have a new governmening party that is not DA. Again people tend to vote on identity politics black, white, mixed race, tribe, religion... obvious this an inheritance from our past. To expect a black person to vote a perceived colored party is like expecting a white person to vote a black party.. it happens but takes time to build that trust. It even seems DA simply took votes from FF+

Ann Bown Jun 3, 2024, 06:38 AM

Are you ok?

J vN Jun 3, 2024, 07:56 AM

LOL! I see my truths made leftie heads explode. Good.

Steve Davidson Jun 3, 2024, 07:19 AM

Well said JvN. I have been getting more and more gatvol with those journalistic apologists who are in fact racist in a way. Living in the Western Cape but also travelling around the country, it is patently obvious that the DA are streets ahead (sic) of the rest of the country and should be supported no matter which colour is in charge (and to call it 'white' is a blatant lie) as they are a bright light in a country going to the dogs.

J vN Jun 3, 2024, 07:56 AM

Pollster and political scientist, Frans Cronje, puts it well on the Biznews site: "The DA cannot easily reach the aspirant emerging middle class, particularly young Black people and immigrants from urban areas, because the DA has been so stigmatized by the mainstream media." and "The DA has to campaign against the mainstream media as well. And it’s a popular thing to denigrate DA politicians broadly, but I think anyone that does that has no idea of how difficult this work can be." This grossly stupid DA-bashing seems to be some kind of job requirement for the tired, twelfth-rate hacks here and on News24. They seem to want to outdo themselves in signaling their backward, leftard virtues by bashing the DA.

Geoff Coles Jun 3, 2024, 09:45 AM

I really enjoyed your first paragraph...faux manipulation etc.

Johan Buys Jun 3, 2024, 07:10 AM

Everybody loves a drama. Other than DA and ANC agreeing that (1) DA will vote for CR in first sitting of Parliament and (2) that other coalitions will include at least both parties rather than ANC+obscure small party; there is no urgent need for a grand coalition. The DA+ANC is over 201 needed to appoint CR. Parliament can function without a majority party or majority coalition. It will be good for the country if coalitions are not farces as what happened with ANC and irrelevant parties when ANC needed to get to 50+1 in a council or metro. If the DA gets at least that concession from negotiations, great. We can expect that EFF and MK will disrupt ongoing proceedings in Parliament. That is also fine, just continue and vote without them - I am fairly sure the rules mostly require a majority of votes, not 201 votes.

Pet Bug Jun 3, 2024, 09:03 AM

Agree with your assessment. Someone calls this a confidence and supply (?) agreement between ANC and DA. DA will provide some confidence for important bills and block votes of no confidence in exchange for certain parliamentary roles of leadership and oversight. This way ANC saves face but is finally held to account by parliament - which contributed greatly to SA demise under ANC. We need a strong democratic opposition with the tools to prevent ANC overreach- and certainly not a fascist opposition should DA become part of government with a coalition.

Dietmar Horn Jun 3, 2024, 09:19 AM

Parliament's key means of controlling the government is budget law. Without a budget, the president-elect is a lame duck. SA has no experience with coalitions at the national level, nor with a minority government. Imagine that the president negotiates the budget with changing majorities every year - stability looks different. Concrete and binding target agreements in economic, financial and tax policy are therefore essential in connection with an agreement on the election of the president.

Sergei Rostov Jun 3, 2024, 08:13 AM

Come on, just say it: "Thank you DA voters".

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:45 PM

Yes indeed.

William Kelly Jun 3, 2024, 08:35 AM

Lol. The fact that the DAnhas an optics problem cannot be more strongly emphasized than it was in this election. Against a massive loss by the ruling party the DA recovered a tiny portion of its losses from the previous election. And the number of voters that did not vote increased substantially. This election, for the DA is exactly the failure that the press writes about. They need the centrist black vote and theybare not getting it because every black leader they have had they could not work with. If there are any resignations afoot, Steenhuizen has to be the first tongo, but true to form he cannot see why! That all said its immaterial now. As much as I dont agree with Zille in her position there is no doubt whatsoever that she is right person, along with Leon, to handle these negotiations. I would have loved to see Pappas in the mix but the dearth of black faces is going to be used to fuel the DA is racist narrative that they have done bugger all to correct. Principles are great, but we have a country's future at stake and if the DA had managed its principles better in the election it would be playing from a far stronger hand. Stil, it is what we have left now and there is bugger all any ofnus can do about it. Godspeed to both teams.

Hari Seldon Jun 3, 2024, 09:47 AM

400 seats in the assembly - by my count ANC / EFF / MKP / PA coalition has 265 seats. 268 seats are required to change the constitution by my calcs (67%). This coalition needs just another 3 seats which it can get from PAC / Al Jama-ah etc. Then it would be good bye South Africa. Reserve Bank gone, other hey requirements in constitution gone. Markets will totally tank, rand will go north of 30, inflation will skyrocket, bye bye. Lets pray the DA and ANC can work out a stable arrangement.

mandy.crerar Jun 3, 2024, 11:06 AM

The biggest task ahead of all political parties is to find out why 41% of voters stayed at home instead of using the power of their vote, and to convince them that they must get out of bed next time!

Hari Seldon Jun 3, 2024, 11:32 AM

And why they did not at least vote for Rise Mzansi or Action SA or BOSA? - its mostly non-white voters dissatisfied with the ANC - probably aspirational middle class or middle class. That's the most disappointing thing for me with this election - why did the black middle class not vote for Rise Mzansi or Action SA at least?

mandy.crerar Jun 3, 2024, 11:12 AM

The most important task ahead of all political parties is to find out why 41% of voters stayed at home instead of using the power of their vote, and to convince them that next time it's worth their while to get out of bed to vote!

superjase Jun 3, 2024, 11:27 AM

while it is clear that the DA is not a white party in terms of who votes for it (only 7% of ZA is white, and their support is in the region of 3 times that number; not quite the most accurate way of looking at the numbers, i know, but it serves its purpose here), it is mind-boggling how white their leadership continues to be. a six-person negotiation team, with a breakdown of 4 white, 1 coloured and 1 black!. this, coupled with the very real optics of prominent white leaders - zille, steenhuisen, winde, hill-lewis (can you even name a prominent non-white DA leader?) - means that the DA will always struggle to shake its "for white people" image. i am not suggesting here that the DA is racist, but the question that it needs to answer is this: how can it possibly be that 30 years into our democracy the DA struggles to find strong, capable black leaders (and retain them!)? and then still claim to be merit-based and non-racial? it's such a pity that the DA (the best administrators in the country) continues to shoot itself in the foot all the time in terms of making themselves believably non-racial. mmusi was let go after disappointing results in 2019 (he failed to grow the party). i wonder whether we'll see the same from steenhuisen (after failing to grow the party)?

Jean Racine Jun 3, 2024, 01:07 PM

Just to add, it is quite clear that the DA and its MPC severely under-performed and did not attract any new voters, when one considers that the ANC's 2019 tally (55%) was basically split in 2024 between ANC and MKP. More damning is the 2019-2024 MPC comparison: Party 2019. 2024. DA. 20.77 21.81 FF+. 2.38 1.36 ACDP. 0.84 0.60 UDM. 0.45 0.49 Cope. 0.27 0.09 IFP. 3.38 3.85 Action SA 0.00 1.19 Basically, the DA got the right-wingers back from the FF+, who couldn't abide Maimane, and a few stragglers from the ACDP and COPE. Pathetic, really, and one wonders whether Messrs Leon, Coetzee, Le Roux will again saddle up for a postmortem and recommendations on Steenhuizen's abject failure.

charlrichardengelbrec Jun 3, 2024, 02:20 PM

The DA screwed up quite badly in the Schweizer-Reinecke incident in 2019, and consequently lost votes to the FF+. They corrected themselves and regained those votes in 2024. Why did the new 'black' parties do so badly? Perhaps there is something in their leadership that is unacceptable to black voters? Have you considered that the vast majority of voters are just intellectually incompetent, hopelessly myopic, or otherwise afflicted, and that there is nothing any reasonable political party can do to alter that? The people are resistant to reason, so blame the DA, it is the politically correct thing to do. Is this your twisted white guilt playing out?

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:48 PM

You should thank your lucky stars for the DA. Without the DA this country would have already gone to hell in a handbasket. This propensity to defy logic and reason and perpetually moan is just beyond me.

charlrichardengelbrec Jun 3, 2024, 02:27 PM

Jason, join a party of your choice, work your way up the ranks and get elected, so you can have some influence and everyone can benefit from your superior wisdom. Otherwise, crawl back to momma's house to cry in the bathroom.

Andre Swart Jun 3, 2024, 02:27 PM

'What matters is not whether the cat is black or white ... what matters is whether the cat can catch mice!' The mice multiplied in RSA and they 'emptied the bread bin' because of lazy FAT CATS! When will the irrelevant skin colour OBSESSION end ... ? ... that's when the RSA citizens GROW UP?

Fernando Moreira Jun 3, 2024, 11:53 AM

Incredible performance by the DA ! Helen Zille might yet save South Africa ! Completely contrary to the DA bashing media ! Good luck to South Africa if the ANC , EFF or MK tie up ! It is scary how many vote on populaism ...no thought about State Capture , , The Zondo Commission , the horrific July Riots , Life Esidimeni , Eskom, the downgrades, the poverty and no thought to the party /s that caused this in plain sight I pray for cool heads and that God smiles on this beautiful country ( but not boring)

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:51 PM

Yes, we are at a pivotal moment in SA. If the ANC are open to a better country for all and are able to approach coalition with the DA with the desire to weed out the corrupt and move our country towards a law-abiding more prosperous nation then we all have a bright future ahead of us. In fact with likely most of the ANC "problem children" having rushed off to the MK, the ANC is hopefully in the best position it has ever been to clean house. And I wish them all the best with doing so!

Tim Price Jun 3, 2024, 01:31 PM

64% of the voters supported the ANC MK/EFF. That is a shocking indictment of the mentality of the majority voters and their abject failure to hold the non performing corrupt parties to account. Perhaps its a vote for a finger in the corruption pie? I don't think much will change. Just more infighting between the ANC/MK with the EFF yapping round the edge of the fight.

Jean Racine Jun 3, 2024, 02:53 PM

In a fictional country (RSA) there are 43 million cola customers. Of those, 15,3 million are so disenchanted with the product offering, they've stopped consuming cola altogether. Market research shows 27,7 million still keen to buy cola. Last market survey in 2019, about 15 million actually bought cola, with Company A holding 55% share. Company B held 20,8% and aware of the extensive market represented by both lapsed (15,3mil) and still keen (12,7mil) cola customers, had booted its CEO and gave the new hire 5 years to turn the situation around. Suffice to say, any Board worth the name, would fire the CEO for rank incompetence, if - in his explanation for growing market share to only 21,8% of the 16 million who actually bother to still buy cola (representing 8,8% of the 43 million cola customers) after 5 years of prolonged defective product from the market leader Company A, and millions of rands for the campaign - he turned around and blamed...the mentality of the customers who just won't buy his product!

Andre Swart Jun 3, 2024, 02:06 PM

The split in the ANC rid the ANC of the RET morons ... leaving the 'New Dawn'ers'. This 'split' is a 'blessing in disguise' for the modern, free market faction in the ANC. The split 'sanitized' the remaining ANC of the communist ideologists, state capturers, and blood thirsty Zulu tribalists. The remaining New Dawn ANC, is much more compatible with FREE MARKET countries and locally, with the DA+ MPC. The ANC split is GOOD for a prosperous SA in future.

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:52 PM

I agree wholeheartedly.

abmeyer Jun 3, 2024, 02:27 PM

Listening to Dr Frans Cronje, and his pointed comment about publications such as Daily Maverick, editor Ferial Haffejee and it's cartoonist Zapiro, and multi-year sarcastic comments about, the DA, and especially Helen Zille... The 4th estate, like Zunami overplaying it's hand... Etu Brutus....

Fanie Rajesh Ngabiso Jun 3, 2024, 03:56 PM

Exactly - it defeats me how much people fight the truth if it doesn't suit their narrative, no matter how glaringly obvious it is.

Jun 3, 2024, 06:38 PM

The wildly swinging directions of the comments in this message stream, and there doesn’t seem to be any RET populists which would make the pendulum swings even wilder, are a snap shot of the challenge facing the politicians embarking on coalition forming as well as the country as a whole. There are few examples of respectful enquirer (although there are some) and lots of petulant judgements in the comments above. Optics count whether one thinks they should or not. It’s why most people wanting to make a good impression dress smartly instead of like tramps. The adage, “there is only one chance to make a 1st impression,” is true. How one says things is as important as what’s said, even if the what is correct. Being supercilious, patronizing and often insulting makes the task of convincing others much more difficult, even if one is right. The DA’s negotiating team should have included Pappas. He’s young, fluent in Zulu, appears to have made a huge impact in Umgeni (haven’t visited it myself). Obtaining and then running the 1st DA municipality in KZN is a massive achievement. The deputy mayor Sandile Mnikathi was also part of that team. Most of the DA negotiating team should be sitting off stage as handlers, not in the limelight. Imagine if the front team were Leon, Pappas, Mnikathi, Gwarube, and Lindiwe Mazibuko (if she could be brought back). In all such negotiations there are always caucus breakaways when the counsel of the elders can be sought.