I am often approached for analysis of the South African political landscape by international investors, and with the election nearing I have spoken to many in the last few weeks. Interestingly, their biggest concern was always the quality of the Democratic Alliance’s (DA) leadership.
Given that the latest opinion polls put ANC support around 40%, investors are aware that the ANC might have to choose between the EFF and DA in order to remain in government. If current polls are correct this will also be the case in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, KZN (assuming MK doesn’t get above 30%) and even the Free State.
ANC insiders insist that the governing party would only enter into a coalition with the EFF as a last resort. Aware of the chaos the EFF has caused in local government coalitions, they would prefer — albeit begrudgingly — a coalition with the DA should their support fall below 45%.
International and local investors generally agree that an ANC-EFF coalition would be disastrous for the economy and that a coalition with the DA (and/or the IFP and smaller parties), would be preferable. However, many have serious concerns about whether the DA “will come to the table” and do what is best for the country — a concern I share.
It is well known that the DA national leadership vetoed a possible coalition with the FF+ and Patriotic Alliance (PA) in the City of Johannesburg in 2022, because of their objection to Gayton McKenzie (the leader of the PA). Such a coalition would have meant a DA mayor as well as control of the mayoral committee and could have resulted in significant improvements in service delivery to long-suffering citizens of Johannesburg.
Read more in Daily Maverick: 2024 elections hub
It seems Helen Zille and John Steenhuisen decided to rather let the city fall apart than make the deal. It worries investors (and should concern South Africans) that this “let it rather burn and we will later pick up the pieces” attitude might also prevail after the election in May.
For coalitions to succeed it is important that parties (in particular minority partners) come to the table with a sense of humbleness – something the DA is not known for. All parties would like to get as much as they can during negotiations, but these demands need to be realistic. For example, the positions of deputy president, minister of finance or foreign affairs would be a no-go from the start.
In our country, an awareness of racial and gender sensitivities is also vital.
On the offensive
One cannot ignore the shortcomings of the current DA leadership in this regard. Apart from the well-known Helen Zille colonialism debacle, it seems that John Steenhuisen is particularly tone-deaf when it comes to gender and racial sensitivities.
Last year, for example, there was outrage after he described his ex-wife as “roadkill”. Apart from the obvious misogyny, such a comment was particularly unwise in a country where 3 million more female voters are registered than men.
He is also prone to attack commentators and journalists personally if they dare say something critically about him. Recently for example, he launched a vicious personal attack on Nicole Fritz (formerly from the Helen Suzman Foundation) after she spoke at a conference about the need for new leadership in South Africa. I, and many other journalists have experienced his targeted outrage through social media or via phone calls. (I presume he will retaliate after this column again).
In January millions reacted angrily on social media after he criticised the appointment of crime wardens in Gauteng by premier Panyaza Lesufi. “He took your tax money to buy ill-fitting Pep Stores uniforms for untrained cadres and pretended they were ‘crime wardens’. What kind of person pulls a drunkard out of a shebeen, gives him a uniform and a weapon, and then unleashes them onto a community?” he said.
The reference to a shebeen leaves little doubt about the racial undertone of his comment.
During a speech in Paarl recently, he attacked smaller parties such as Rise Mzansi, Good and Patriotic Alliance for running in the elections in the Western Cape. “Why are they coming to the Western Cape?” he asked. “I thought about this and will tell you why. Because they know there is nothing left to loot in the other provinces… They want to get their hands on the budget and the money… and let me tell you if they get that right, it’s going to be the biggest bank heist you have ever seen….Within a few months the money will be finished in this province.”
Of course, the only thing that Rise Mzansi, Good and Patriotic Alliance have in common is that they have black leaders. If Steenhuisen is to be believed, these parties are not contesting elections in a DA-controlled province as part of the constitutionally protected democratic process, but only because they want to steal money.
Statements such as these don’t go unnoticed by local or international investors and should trouble all of us. They raise serious questions about the DA leadership’s ability to form and maintain a stable coalition agreement with the ANC, which could push the ANC into the arms of the EFF. The DA has a responsibility to make sure that this doesn’t happen and if we do end up with the EFF in government, the DA would have to take responsibility for much of the subsequent disaster. DM