Loaded for Bear: Islamist insurgency, gas and drugs — Mozambique may be a red rag for Trump

In the wake of the US military strikes on Islamic militants in Nigeria and the audacious snatching of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, it may only be a matter of time before the unfolding violence in northern Mozambique appears on US President Donald Trump's radar screen.

The combustible mix there has all the hallmarks of a red rag for Trump: an Islamist insurgency with links to Islamic State (IS) in a region that has become a hub for drug smuggling with massive offshore gas projects involving oil majors including US hydrocarbon giant ExxonMobil.

The insurgency first flared in 2017 in Cabo Delgado province in the northeast, and the Mozambican state with Rwandan military backing has been unable to snuff it out. Indeed, the violence intensified last year with 730 security incidents – double the number in 2024 – and 466 direct attacks, according to the UN’s humanitarian wing OCHA.

“The violence triggered repeated waves of displacement across Cabo Delgado, Nampula and Niassa, forcing over 230,000 people to flee as of October 2025 – the highest number since 2020,” OCHA said.

This is a swelling humanitarian crisis exacerbated by the gutting of USAID and the slashing of European aid flows – a catastrophe that has been cast in the shadows with the global spotlight thrown on the conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and now Venezuela.

It is also a state of affairs that casts an unflattering light on the dark underbelly of the oil industry in Africa, which for decades has fuelled corruption and conflict on the continent on a grand scale.

France’s TotalEnergies has been accused of complicity in war crimes – which it denies – related to a 2021 massacre near its gas project in the region.

A complaint was filed with French prosecutors in November by the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights (ECCHR).

“The oil and gas major is accused of having directly financed and materially supported the Joint Task Force, composed of Mozambican armed forces, which between July and September 2021 allegedly detained, tortured and killed dozens of civilians on TotalEnergies’ gas site,” ECCHR said.

The case was launched just after Total lifted the force majeure on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Mozambique. ExxonMobil, in late November, followed suit, lifting its declaration of force majeure on its Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique.

Which brings us to Trump.

The Christmas Day US military strikes in northwestern Nigeria targeted jihadists linked to IS. Trump had previously claimed that the Nigerian government was doing nothing to prevent the slaughter and persecution of Nigerian Christians – red meat to the hard-right US Christian nationalists who comprise a key plank of his Republican political base.

Nigeria also happens to be a major African oil producer – just saying.

With the focus of a three-year-old, it is hard to say what will grab Trump’s attention next. But northern Mozambique surely has all of the ingredients for a brewing potjiekos that Trump and his minions – notably the sinister deputy White House chief of staff Stephen Miller – will eventually scent.

Most of the victims of the violence there have been Christian and Christian organisations have been sounding the alarm.

“The rise of Islamist extremism in the north of the country, especially in regions such as Cabo Delgado, has had a devastating impact on the lives of believers. Churches have been burned down, pastors abducted and many killed,” says Open Doors, a non-denominational mission group dedicated to the support of persecuted Christians.

“Mozambique has also become a major hub for drug trafficking, with the presence of cartels contributing to a climate of lawlessness and violence, which indirectly affects the Christian community,” it says – a point corroborated by a slew of reports by many organisations including the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime.

An Islamist insurgency with Christian victims, gas projects involving US companies, and to top it all off, drugs – to the MAGA mind, it’s like Venezuela on steroids.

IS and its followers are dangerous and degenerate – as is the MAGA version of Christianity, personified by the dangerous and degenerate man that is its leader. It all points to terrifying scenarios and perpetual conflict, with hydrocarbons adding literal fuel to the flames of this hell on Earth.

Read more: After the Bell – Apocalypse now Trump 2.0, surging religious extremism and the geopolitical and investment risks

Open Doors has an annual “Watch List” that ranks countries by the levels of persecution that it assesses Christians face. Mozambique’s latest ranking on that list is 37.

Watch this space to see how high it ranks on Trump’s list. DM