South African consumer inflation picked up pace moderately in September but remains low by historical standards. (Image: iStock | Getty Images) 
South African consumer inflation picked up pace moderately in September but remains low by historical standards, with food price inflation notably cooling.
But meat and maize prices remain elevated, a concerning trend that is eating into the budgets of many low-income households.
To wit, the consumer price index (CPI) was 3.4% year-on-year in September, according to data released on Wednesday, 22 October 2025, by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA).
This was a slight uptick from 3.3% in August, but is still a broadly benign reading that underlines the Reserve Bank’s quest to lower its inflation target to 3% from the current range of 3% to 6%.
In a welcome trend, food price inflation slowed to 4.4% on an annual basis from 5.2% in August.
“This is in line with international agricultural commodity price movements, which affect local prices through export/import parity. Specifically, global food prices declined by over 2.0% month-on-month in September, while the rand was also supportive, appreciating by 1.5% in September,” Investec economist Lara Hodes said.
Ed’s take
Overall, South African consumer inflation remains well contained — which is what one would expect in a slow-growth economy with eye-watering levels of unemployment. But it is also testimony to the South African Reserve Bank’s (Sarb’s) cautious approach to monetary policy and its efforts to anchor inflation expectations. The inflation target is expected to be lowered in the next few months, and if it is 3.0% the hope is that inflation will start orbiting that level, allowing for interest rates to fall further.
But price increases of key items in the food basket remain unappetising.
“Meat inflation reached 11.7%, the highest annual rate since January 2018 (13.4%). While month-on-month increases for beef products have slowed, price levels remain high. Stewing beef, for example, recorded an annual rise of 32.2%, but no monthly change,” Stats SA said.
Meat prices have been stoked by outbreaks of animal disease, notably the foot-and-mouth contagion that has hammered the cattle industry. Economists have expected the price surge to be temporary, and the month-on-month readings suggest that inflation on this front may be on the verge of cooling.
Annual maize meal inflation meanwhile accelerated to 9.5% in September from 8.2% in August, which is worrying given its role as a caloric staple for poorer and working-class households.
But last season saw a bumper maize harvest, and the outlook for this year is also promising with the La Niña weather pattern expected to herald decent rains across much of the maize belt. This in turn holds the promise of falling maize prices in the shops. DM