Helen Zille, Chairperson of the Federal Council. (Photo by Misha Jordaan/Gallo Images) 
There can be no doubting Helen Zille’s governance experience and her calibre as a politician. No one else would be as candid with voters about the need to “create a binary” as she has been.
Her track record in creating the first coalition that kept the ANC out of power in Cape Town, and then becoming Western Cape premier, is unbeaten. No one else outside of the ANC has that kind of experience.
And probably no one else in the country outside of a president can claim to have had Angela Merkel or any other head of state to dinner.
Also, the timing of her announcement is surely deliberate. She is now likely to have more than a year to campaign.
Campaigning works in South Africa, and having this much time on the ground to go into communities might pay off.
Read more: ‘From Dada to Gogo’ – DA announces Helen Zille as party’s candidate for Joburg mayor
When Athol Trollip became the first DA mayor in Nelson Mandela Bay, he suggested that he had only been able to do it because the 2016 local elections had been held later than scheduled, which meant he had had a full year on the ground.
But perhaps the first immediate consequence is that this puts pressure on the ANC to find its own candidate.
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Zille-Jozi-Great-Again-copy.jpg "Illustrative image | The Johannesburg skyline. (Photo: iStock) | Helen Zille, the DA’s Johannesburg mayoral candidate. (Photo: Felix Dlangamandla)")
The ANC’s options
This in turn is likely to lead to conflict within its structures. While the ANC’s national leaders might well want to parachute in a well-known candidate, the ANC’s Joburg region might oppose this.
That region is due to elect a new leader soon, and it seems that the contestation between its current leader, mayor Dada Morero, and the challenger, Loyiso Masuku, might be one of the reasons for the governance weakness now.
It is entirely possible that a large dispute will erupt between the Joburg region and the party’s national leaders over this.
Read more: Helen Zille eyes Joburg mayorship after DA’s top picks decline post
Even if there is no dispute, it is hard to see who from the ANC could counter Zille’s message, or dominate the narrative in the way that she can.
That said, if the ANC believes the election will be dominated by service delivery, they might well want to propose someone who can claim to have a proven track record.
Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa might well have the strongest claim to this and could point to his role in ending load shedding. His announcement on Thursday that he wants to end load reduction in the next year might be a nod to future plans.
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/ED_574262.jpg "Joburg Mayor Dada Morero being grilled in Parliament over the diversion of R4bn intended for Joburg Water. (Photo: Sharon Seretlo / Gallo Images)")
Water, race and Gaza
One of the other big variables in this race will be what the election is actually about.
Zille is likely to argue that it is about “saving Joburg” and about governance. Her recent statements about how important it will be to resolve the city’s water problems point to this. While it has not yet been explicitly stated, it is likely that the DA’s message will be that if you want Joburg to succeed – literally, if you want water – you must vote for them.
Read more: Joburg’s water infrastructure – a picture of decline and underinvestment
The ANC might well use Zille’s candidature to try to focus on race. It will argue that Zille has presided over a divided history in Cape Town and will focus on richer areas while excluding poorer people.
style="font-weight: 400;">Anele Mdoda’s recent interview with Zille on 947 reminds us, race can still be the dominant factor in our politics.
This means that in some ways this election will hark back to traditional election patterns: the DA tries to make it about governance while the ANC focuses on race.
But other issues, including Israel’s actions in Gaza, will be a factor too.
Zille appears to find it difficult to label Israel’s actions there as a “genocide”. But she might well find language that shows she condemns Israel’s actions there that might remove some of the power from this issue.
On the other hand, if she doubles down, this could still be an important issue.
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/ED_561166.jpg "Former SA president Jacob Zuma at the MK Youth League Launch at Christianenburg Stadium on June 16, 2025 in Durban. (Photo by Gallo Images/Darren Stewart)")
MK and the EFF
It is also not clear how her entry into this race will affect other parties.
The biggest variable is obviously the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party. As Zille herself has said, MK has changed our politics. But it is not possible at this point to predict whether it peaked in last year’s national elections or still has momentum.
MK is likely to focus on ethnic mobilisation rather than governance, and might well join the ANC’s efforts to make this about identity.
They will probably be joined by the EFF, which appears desperate to regain its lost momentum.
Read more: The big no-vote: over 11 million registered voters did not cast ballots in 2024 polls
However, this might suit Zille and the DA. It would allow them to rerun the messaging from last year’s elections, that the ANC and the EFF, joined by MK, would be a “doomsday coalition” for Joburg.
One of the main aims of the DA would be to increase the voter differential, and to encourage its supporters (often white and middle-class) to vote, while hoping that formerly ANC supporters (often black) stay at home.
This kind of messaging worked for the DA last year, and might work again, particularly if parties including the ANC, the EFF and MK are unable to craft a message beyond identities.
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/ED_562826.jpg "Helen Zille's address on the Government of National Unity (GNU) and issues an ultimatum to President Cyril Ramaphosa during a media briefing held at the Orange Hotel on June 28, 2025 in Cape Town. (Photo: Brenton Geach / Gallo Images)")
The gaffe factor
Another big factor is how Zille behaves on the trail. If she allows herself to get bogged down in issues around race, her comments about “refugees” or what she has said about the “benefits” of colonialism, or the situation in Gaza, she might energise ANC, MK and EFF voters.
She might be under pressure to stick to a disciplined message, as tough as that could be.
The sheer amount of attention and discussion about Zille last week is an important indicator of something else. It shows that people are desperate for their situation to improve. Bluntly, they want a saviour.
And not just in Joburg, but in many other municipalities, too.
While the outcome of the elections is hard to call at this stage, it is clear that Zille’s candidacy will probably shape the entire election. Joburg will dominate the polls, in a way that is unusual in local elections.
Considering the importance of Joburg to the economy, and therefore the country, this might be a positive development.
This will give the election a focus.
There is also no doubt about one other thing. The upcoming local elections are going to be as spicy as hell. DM