Farmers harvest spinach at DF Farm in Dawn Park in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo: Gallo Images / Sharon Seretlo) 
Climate shocks make farming more unpredictable. Conflicts exposing fragile supply chains and food insecurity rose 150% between 2019 and 2022, according to the World Bank.
Against this backdrop, Africa stands out for all the right reasons. It holds close to 70% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, a young and growing population, and an agricultural sector that already makes up more than a third of its GDP.
“It is estimated that about two-thirds of the world’s arable land is within the African continent. That suggests that Africa is potentially the food basket of the world,” said Absa CEO Kenny Fihla.
This is why the B20, the business voice of the G20, has zeroed in on agriculture under South Africa’s presidency. Its Sustainable Food Systems and Agriculture Task Force has put forward a set of recommendations designed to attract investment and turn Africa into a global supplier.
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Anthony Costa, head of the B20 Secretariat, explains the motivation: “We continued this task force from Brazil because we think it is strategically important for the African continent. It has the largest amount of unused arable land and is in a unique position to provide food resources more efficiently to the rest of the world.”
Five mega-trends forcing change
The task force identified five forces changing global food systems — climate change, supply chain fragility, increasing demand, technology and land management.
Climate change: “Climate shocks cost the continent R138-billion ($8-billion) between 2019 and 2022, and there are projections that it could go up to $600-billion (R10.3-trillion) in 2030,” said Abrie Rautenbach, head of agribusiness at Absa Corporate and Investment Banking and a member of the task force at a side event hosted by the Sustainable Food Systems and Agriculture Task Force on 17 September 2025.
Supply chain fragility, laid bare by the war in Ukraine and rising protectionism.
Increasing demand: “A country like Nigeria will have a population of 262 million by 2030. More population equals more food (requirements),” Rautenbach said.
Technology is the fourth trend, with digital platforms and precision farming offering breakthroughs for productivity. For example, implementing AI-powered extension agents and digital platforms could enable Brazilian farmers to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices more effectively. This could increase farmer income by 25% and reduce input costs by 20% by 2030.
Land management: Africa has both untapped potential and challenges. By 2030, an estimated 80 million additional hectares of cropland will be needed globally — nearly 70% of this in Africa and Latin America — requiring both major productivity gains and sustainable land use to prevent deforestation, degradation and biodiversity loss.
“What’s important is tying (this opportunity) not just to agriculture, but to value chains and production. It’s not just about growing the crops and exporting them, it’s about processing and how we find the agri-business opportunities there,” Costa told Daily Maverick.
The numbers back him up. Tripling intra-Africa agricultural exports could generate R3.1-trillion ($180-billion) in revenue and create 10 million jobs, according to the Sustainable Food Systems and Agriculture Task Force. Fixing clogged supply chains could claw back 1-2% of GDP annually, which Rautenbach calls “low hanging fruit and an opportunity for entrepreneurs”.
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Fihla agrees that the business case requires modernisation.
“Investment is required in agriculture in order to ensure that the processes are modernised, that people use seeds and equipment and farming methods that can withstand some of the challenges that we’re seeing today — challenges of disease, drought as well as climate change.”
The task force’s five-point plan
The Sustainable Food Systems and Agriculture Task Force’s recommendations are straightforward and ambitious. The first recommendation is to strengthen agrifood supply chains by pulling the private sector into logistics and skills training.
“If you are producing agricultural products, you want to get those to the market as quickly as possible. They need to arrive on time, be fresh and be in a good state,” Fihla said.
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The second recommendation is to improve access to inputs and technologies.
“Innovation comes in two facets,” Rautenbach said. “The first one is it needs to be user-friendly, and the second thing is how do we share some of this innovation, how do you integrate that with other areas?”
Third, expand inclusive finance for small-scale farmers, women and youth. Fourth, integrate trade into food security by harmonising standards and addressing protectionist rules.
“Some of the regulations are designed purely to protect the local market, which we think is unfair because it effectively puts goods that are coming from Africa at a disadvantage,” Fihle said.
Read more: Adapting to change: How local farmers use tradition to combat climate impacts sustainably
Finally, promote sustainable practices like regenerative farming through public-private partnerships.
Barriers to investment
Lebogang Botsheleng, the acting deputy director-general at the Department of Agriculture, pointed to a “mismatch between what is available within the investment sector and the real life situation of our farmers”, many of whom operate informally and lack collateral.
The cost of capital is another barrier. Costa said: “If large banks and sovereigns in Africa are paying more than they should because of inaccurate risk perceptions, that cost of capital feeds into the system, making it more expensive for countries to borrow, for banks to borrow, and in turn for small businesses to borrow.”
Read more: Africa’s agricultural paradox — so much potential for farming, so many barriers to success
Financing models remain ill suited.
“The agri sector, unlike many other sectors, has seasonality embedded in it. One needs to take a much more long-term view,” Fihla told Daily Maverick.
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/WhatsApp-Image-2025-09-23-at-16.02-1.jpg "Agricultural trade is the backbone of many African economies, with some countries dependent on the trade of agricultural products. (Graph: P20 Symposium, Expanding Market Access for Africa’s Agricultural Products)")
Policy is perhaps the most frustrating issue. South African Brewery’s (SAB) CEO, Richard Rivett-Carnac, said that trade barriers prevented the company from building processing plants in Africa. Instead, barley was imported from Europe “at significantly higher costs and adding not a single job to Africa”.
Governments, meanwhile, struggle with priorities. Fihla noted: “To prioritise appropriately sometimes becomes extremely difficult for the government in that the trade-offs are not made in a manner that is rational (or) that ultimately contributes towards economic growth and sustainability of our own economies.” He said that investment in basics like water infrastructure and land protection could have an outsized impact if targeted properly.
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How this affects you
- Food on your plate: Stronger supply chains and better farming practices could mean more stable food prices and fewer shortages.
- Jobs: Processing, logistics and tech startups create jobs across the agricultural value chain.
- Healthier food: If local farmers can get their produce to market quickly and at scale, you benefit from fresher, more affordable options.
- Your tax at work: Smarter government prioritisation of infrastructure like water systems and roads means your taxes can deliver better value.
- Global competition: A thriving agri sector strengthens Africa’s voice in global trade, which filters down to stronger economies.
Proof of concept
Despite the obstacles, some pioneers are showing how it can be done. SAB uses anchor investments in processing facilities to create guaranteed markets, then builds emerging farmer programmes around them.
Tech entrepreneurs like Karidas Tshintsholo, founder of the Khula! app, are tackling the problems of market access, finance and inputs in one digital ecosystem.
“Agriculture is such an interconnected industry, the problems are all very much interlinked,” he said.
Read more: Absa buys a minority stake in agritech startup, Khula!
Finance is evolving as well. Absa is experimenting with green financing models, while life sciences company Bayer has invested in Apollo Agriculture in Kenya to help so-called “non-bankable” farmers gain access to seeds and insurance.
The B20’s work is ultimately aimed at governments. The G20 agricultural ministers unanimously adopted a declaration on Friday, 19 September, which reinforces the members’ commitment to ensuring Africa’s priorities are embedded in the global fight against food insecurity.
“We have the scale, we have the growth, we have the population growth, we’re the envy of the rest of the world... And unlocking trade and unlocking the way that we see the scale of opportunities we have in Africa, I think is crucial,” Rivett-Carnac said. DM