South Africa's north-eastern regions are expected to have a wet spring and early summer amid cautious optimism that the La Niña weather pattern will return soon, a state of affairs that should herald decent summer rains for much of the country. (Photo: iStock) 
South Africa’s northeastern regions are expected to have a wet spring and early summer amid cautious optimism that the La Niña weather pattern will return soon, a state of affairs that should herald decent summer rains for much of the country.
Temperatures are expected to remain above average across South Africa into January, a reflection of global trends. And while La Niña is regarded as having a cooling effect, global temperatures are expected to remain in record territory — a consequence of human-induced climate change.
“Most of the areas that receive significant rainfall in the coming seasons of spring and early summer are situated in the northeast of the country. These areas are expected to receive in general above-normal rainfall during the forecast period up until early summer,” the South African Weather Service said in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch report, which looks five months ahead.
If this forecast materialises it will be good news for farmers, including maize producers in the eastern part of SA’s grain belt in Mpumalanga.
“We look forward to the 2025-26 summer season with optimism for South Africa’s agriculture,” said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA.
Another good season would be important for food security and to contain food price inflation.
Regional staple
Last season’s maize crop rose 23% to 15.8 million tons as yields were lifted by the rains of La Niña that followed in the wake of a scorcher of an El Niño that wreaked havoc with the regional staple across southern Africa.
La Niña typically brings good rains to this region while El Niño usually unleashes drought, and cautious optimism in the fields has been boosted by rising prospects for the return of the former between now and December.
“Neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña) have persisted since March 2025, with sea surface temperature anomalies remaining near average across the equatorial Pacific. However, these conditions may gradually make way for La Niña conditions to emerge in the coming months, potentially starting in September 2025,” the Geneva-based World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday, 2 September 2025.
“According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, there is a 55% chance for sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to cool to La Niña levels, and a 45% chance for them to remain at El Niño-Southern Oscillation-neutral levels during the upcoming September-November 2025 period. For October-December 2025, the probability of La Niña conditions slightly increases to about 60%.”
Thankfully, the WMO and other global forecasters at this stage see little prospect of El Niño developing before the end of the year.
But the weather is expected to remain hot.
What this means for you
Decent rains should herald good summer crops, including the staple maize, and that in turn should help to contain food prices and boost food security. But expectations of another cooker of a summer could negatively affect yields, and there is a chance that La Niña may not return this summer. At least El Niño is not on the cards — for now.
“... naturally occurring climate events such as La Niña and El Niño are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, exacerbating extreme weather and affecting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns,” the WMO said.
“For September to November, temperatures are expected to be above normal in much of the northern hemisphere and large parts of the southern hemisphere.”
The past decade has been the warmest on record globally, and 2024 was the first year that saw temperatures flare past the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels.
Read more: It’s official, 2024 warmest year on record globally
If you live in Gauteng, if you blinked last month you missed spring. Daytime highs currently are in the high 20s and the lows in the mid-teens — that’s summer weather folks.
La Niña will hopefully unlock the heavens for rain across this region, but it’s not going to cool things down. DM