Illustrative image | John Steenhuisen, leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA). (Photo: Waldo Swiegers / Bloomberg via Getty Images) | DA leader John Steenhuisen. (Photo: Gallo Images / Die Burger / Lulama Zenzile) 
On Tuesday, Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen said that he hoped the party’s national conference would elect him to stay on as leader in April next year. He has been relatively coy about his ambitions in the past, but this would appear to indicate that he will now stand for a third term.
At the same time, on Wednesday EWN reported that the DA’s Cape Town Mayor, Geordin Hill-Lewis, had indicated he would contest for another term as mayor.
Considering the consistent speculation that Hill-Lewis might one day be leader of the DA, this would appear to confirm that Steenhuisen will not face him as a challenger next year.
Steenhuisen has also shown himself to be a master of internal elections. In 2023, the party’s last conference, he beat former Joburg mayor Mpho Phalatse by 83% of the vote to just 17%.
While there was much made at the time about the fact the DA was sticking with a white male leader, it should also be remembered that DA conferences are incredibly diverse.
As remarked then, it is one of the peculiarities of the party that a membership that appears to represent the country elects a largely white leadership (it is not just Steenhuisen, but in fact most of the leadership positions are held by white people).
While this presents a political problem for the DA, it is likely to argue that it must respect the wishes of its diverse membership. And it’s hard to argue with that.
Unless a serious challenger emerges (which seems unlikely), the first consequence of this is that the DA will probably avoid a messy argument about whether it should be involved in the coalition with the ANC.
If there is a serious leadership election, that could easily devolve into a proxy fight about the coalition. Like the situation in the ANC, this would have the potential to divide the party with possibly permanent consequences.
Zille to Jozi
That said, it is possible that there is another significant change in the leadership of the DA.
After the 2019 elections, Helen Zille was elected to the position of Chair of the DA’s Federal Council. That led directly to the resignation of Mmusi Maimane as leader and the departures of Herman Mashaba and Athol Trollip.
Now Zille appears to be publicly flirting with the idea of being the DA’s candidate for mayor in Joburg. This might well result in her deciding to no longer be available for the position of Chair of the Federal Council.
Read more: Helen Zille eyes Joburg mayorship after DA’s top picks decline post
That said, her voice will still resonate loudly in the party. If she runs for the position of Joburg mayor, it is likely that the major focus of the local elections will become about Joburg – and about her.
Considering that Joburg is in such a dire state, and that this is largely the result of failing coalitions led by the ANC, this might be entirely appropriate. Joburg would become a proxy for the entire election, with its issues around service delivery, inequality and race.
This would energise the DA in Joburg. But it might also energise the ANC, which would be likely to try to claim the DA is “imposing” a white woman on the city.
And while the DA has been able to hit many of its targets in running Cape Town, Zille and the party will find that difficult to do in Joburg. As with the party’s track record in Tshwane, it is entirely possible that Joburg defeats the DA.
This then opens the party to some significant risk. As good governance has been a major plank of its election campaigns, if this reputation were weakened, it might find it difficult to define itself compared to other parties.
Identity and diversity
Meanwhile, as our politics is entering a new and unpredictable phase, with coalitions that can sometimes appear to be constantly shifting, there is at least one enduring fact.
The leader of a party is still very important.
In government, Steenhuisen has shown himself to be very effective and competent. Unlike some ministers in the past, he has never been caught off guard and has shown he can make governance decisions effectively.
He has, of course, made at least one mistake. His appointment of the right-wing attention-seeker Roman Cabanac as chief of staff revealed an alarming naivete.
The fact that it took him so long to remove Cabanac is a blot on his record.
But, for many South Africans, he might have proved that he is a part of the nation in an important way during the famous Oval Office meeting involving President Cyril Ramaphosa and US President Donald Trump.
He made sure he supported Ramaphosa’s position (if tacking slightly to his party’s agenda). This might have been an important moment for some voters who are concerned the DA is not really loyal to the South African project.
Read more: ‘First step to cheaper food’ — Steenhuisen axes controversial bread inspection contract
At the same time, Steenhuisen might well point to some polling that suggests his party is growing. And, in one interpretation at least, could be bigger than the ANC under some circumstances.
All of this suggests he could go into a local and national election showing that he has a solid track record, both as leader of the DA and in government.
But it may be another enduring truth of our politics for some time to come, that it is not just a party leader but also their identity that matters. The DA’s leadership, while reflecting the votes of its diverse membership, may make it vulnerable.
It is one of the important sadnesses of our politics that the DA has not been able to elect and encourage black leaders. While Mmusi Maimane was an effective leader, in the end he did lose votes in 2019.
And the lesson the DA appears to have drawn from that is that it is more important to keep the votes of some minority groups than reach out further to other communities.
Unfortunately, as our politics continues to splinter, this might be the right course for the party. Recent history has shown that it is smaller parties that campaign along identity lines that make progress, while more diverse parties have lost traction.
If this becomes another enduring truth of our politics, the DA might be more effective to continue on its current path. DM