Illustrative image | (Photos: EPA-EFE / Kim Ludbrook | Rawpixel | Lubabalo Lesolle / Gallo Images) 
Exclusive: 44%-46% — prediction for governing party from pollster most trusted by the ANC
Two days to go to the 29 May election. We hope you are ready to vote.
Daryl Swanepoel is CEO of the Inclusive Society Institute, which analyses election polls for the ANC, among others. He is a former ANC MP and National Party member of the Gauteng Provincial Legislature. The institute is independent but shares a social democracy lens with the ANC, he says.
This is Swanepoel’s key analysis of the most recent Ipsos poll, widely believed to be the largest regular poll of voter intentions.
- The ANC is likely to get 44-46% on 29 May. President Cyril Ramaphosa has said the party will win a majority, but the Social Research Foundation’s Daily Poll by director Dr
- Frans Cronje has found the party’s final push bump eased off at the end of last week.
- MK party could finish with 8-9% of the vote.
- The ANC’s energetic campaign worked to stem its losses from MK, but it did not grow support.
- In KwaZulu-Natal, currently in a tight four-way race, MK could emerge as the largest party. See Queenin Masuabi’s report here.
- Swanepoel predicts that Gauteng will definitely need a coalition government as ANC support has dipped well below 50%. The ANC in Gauteng told the Mail & Guardian last week that it would get 55%.
- Election results will depend on how many of the country’s registered 26,7-million voters turn out to vote. Swanepoel is expecting a medium turnout of 55% of voters. A low turnout is more beneficial to the incumbent governing party, the ANC, he explained.
High-risk voting stations, say cops
Queenin Masaubi wrote that the Electoral Commission of SA quashed vote-rigging allegations made by MK party members.
SAPS Deputy National Commissioner Lieutenant General Tebello Mosikili said in the same article that NatJoints was ready to ensure safety and security throughout the elections, after it had “identified 632 high-risk voting stations around SA” that it would monitor.
Here’s some of your voter feedback
Cecelia van der Merwe writes:
As an expat living in Perth, Australia, I was unable to vote. Originally expats were only allowed to vote at High Commissions, which meant that I would have to fork out R20,000+ to travel to Canberra to vote. I was very pleased when the DA took the matter to court and won/Expats would be allowed to vote at any embassy or consulate. That meant I would be able to vote at my local Perth consulate!
Sadly, that was not the reality. I checked the Perth consulate’s website to see when/where/how I would be able to vote, and all I continuously got was information telling me to go vote in Canberra.
I’m bitterly disappointed. I know in the grand scheme of things my expat vote (or lack thereof!) won’t make much of a difference, but it stings that I wasn’t really enabled to exercise my democratic right to vote.
Expats are generally accused of abandoning South Africa. Sadly, it seems as if the feeling is mutual and that South Africa also abandons its expats.
Jacci Babich writes:
Sadly, one of the reasons many South Africans abroad did not vote was simply due to time and the cost of getting to the voting stations. Just my family of seven who all work in Auckland (1,657 million) would have had to find the money to fly, bus or train or take two cars to drive all the way to Wellington (population 212,700) vote, stay overnight and get back. One third of the people live in Auckland. According to the 2018 census there were 71,382 South Africans living in New Zealand (NZ) then, and numbers must be much higher today. In 1996 alone NZ snapped up 1,000 of our best teachers and every second doctor seems to be South African.
Cathy Pettiquin writes:
I would have definitely voted if it was made easier to do so. It is a major mission to have to get to London to vote and as a pensioner it is quite an ordeal. Why can South Africans living abroad not vote online, surely it can be securely arranged?
(A study on electronic voting is ongoing at the Human Sciences Research Council. Ed.)
Irene Ansems writes:
I live in Bristol, UK, now; but am a loyal and concerned Saffa.
I tried more than 20 times to register for an overseas vote on the government website, without success. It could not verify my identity, even though my documents are valid. There was also no link to complain or object. Even the DA website couldn’t help me.
It was a painful process and I am really upset and heartbroken. I DO CARE!! (We know. Ed.)
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