ANALYSIS
Job Security — Ramaphosa’s presidential hot seat might soon get even hotter
Amid increasing speculation about whether a poor result for the ANC in next month’s election could mean the end of Cyril Ramaphosa’s presidency, it must be remembered that the question of Ramaphosa’s future is intertwined with the issue of possible coalitions.
It appears that an ANC decision to retain or remove President Cyril Ramaphosa after next month’s general election cannot be made without the party first deciding who to form a coalition with, should its share of the national vote fall below 50%.
In 2019, the ANC said publicly that one of the reasons it had been able to keep so many voters after the State Capture era was that Ramaphosa was its leader.
For the first time since the end of the Mandela era, the leader of the ANC was more popular than the party.
Much has changed since then. As life has got harder for almost everyone in South Africa, and because of the Phala Phala scandal, Ramaphosa can no longer make such a claim.
Crucially, one of the reasons for this is that he has failed to carry out the reforms he promised. Despite saying repeatedly he would ensure accountability for what happened during State Capture, people implicated by the Zondo Commission are still in his government, appointed by him.
The ANC’s current situation and the speculation that it could fall to as low as 40% (unlikely as this may be in reality) has led to observers pondering whether a poor result for the ANC would see Ramaphosa’s removal.
Of course, it is not entirely clear what the definition of a “poor result” is. For Ramaphosa’s supporters, it could well be anything below 40%, while for his opponents it could be anything below 50%.
It has long been clear to everyone, inside and outside the ANC, that the party was bound to lose significant support. And if it is true that the ANC conducts its own polling, then those in the top leadership will have a clearer idea of the probable election trends several days before voting.
Any debate about “who is to blame” for a bad result could easily turn into a circular firing squad. Ramaphosa has been recorded telling a National Executive Committee meeting that other ANC leaders are not doing enough to help the party win the election.
Any meeting seeking to blame him could well find its way into the public domain again.
The big question
There are other key questions around this issue, the major one being: Who would take over — would it automatically be Deputy President Paul Mashatile?
The closest precedent for this is the events of 2008 when Kgalema Motlanthe, who was then deputy president of the ANC, replaced Thabo Mbeki as SA President. That was with the express permission, and possibly at the express request, of the then ANC leader, Jacob Zuma, and it was publicly agreed that Motlanthe’s presidency would be temporary.
This situation would be very different this time, as there would be no explicit understanding that whoever takes over from Ramaphosa would be there only temporarily. And so any negotiations about removing Ramaphosa risk becoming a major fight for power among different groups.
Should such a situation occur, and considering the divisions in the ANC, it could lead to chaos.
There is another problem for anyone wanting to use a poor election result against Ramaphosa: there may simply not be enough time for anyone to mount a challenge.
This is because if the ANC falls below 50% and needs a large coalition partner, the question of electing the President will be intertwined with the question of finding that partner.
It is highly unlikely that Ramaphosa would lead a Cabinet including EFF leaders in senior positions, just as it is impossible to imagine the DA in a coalition with Mashatile as President.
Any possible coalition partner would want to know who the President would be.
In terms of the Constitution, the National Assembly must meet “not more than 14 days after the election result has been declared [and] at its first sitting after its election, and whenever necessary to fill a vacancy, the National Assembly must elect a woman or a man from among its members to be the President”.
This means there would be only two weeks to form a coalition, or at least an informal working relationship, or to make the decision to form a minority administration.
This is only the start of what has to happen in those two weeks.
The ANC will also have to make decisions about who to elect as premiers in the provinces it wins, and which parties to work with in provinces it does not win outright (traditionally, the ANC does not announce premier candidates for provinces before elections; the NEC decides that after the election, partially to ensure there are female premiers too).
Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024
A contentious meeting
Other important posts need to be filled: the new Speaker and Deputy Speaker in the National Assembly, and the chair of the National Council of Provinces.
This would be before what could be a very contentious NEC meeting that provides input into the new Cabinet.
The political activity around the leadership of the ANC in the two weeks after previous elections has been incredibly intense. This year, the coalition challenge will dial it up a notch.
To add some kind of leadership challenge or change on top of this may be impossible with the tight deadlines.
However, it would be foolish to completely rule out change to the upper echelon of the ANC.
First, with strong political backing, presidents can be deposed. Just as Zuma had the support to remove Mbeki in 2008, and Ramaphosa had the political backing to remove Zuma in 2018, someone with the proper backing could remove Ramaphosa — and quickly.
Second, Ramaphosa himself might feel duty-bound to resign because he had led the ANC to a poor result, or if there was an indication he would come under pressure from inside the ANC.
He reportedly came close to stepping down just before the 2022 ANC conference over the Phala Phala scandal, which suggests he is not wedded to the presidency.
But if he does not want to resign, that decision in itself could set this hypothetical process back for many months, and necessitate a special ANC electoral conference. As holding even a “normal” conference takes an extraordinary effort, it is possible the party would struggle to survive this process.
While the next few weeks will see much political activity ahead of voting day on 29 May, the election results could set the stage for the real political action of 2024. DM
There are too many permutations and combinations possible post 29th May. It’s anybody’s guess. The good, the bad and the ugly.
Interesting times ahead.
The bad we have already seen plenty of. The ugly involves anything where the EFF is present. The good is where both the leaders of the ANC and the DA become adults and focus on what is best for the country and its people. But I have yet to see or meet an adult politician.
I blame the president before and his friends. If you inherit a mess, and have internal opposition-what can you realistically achieve?, in 5 years of slow moving bureaucracy. Now the MK is up and running, JZ inc are following suit.
We will never know where SA would be if the lost nine years never happened. We will never know what Ramaphosa could’ve accomplished if JZ inc had exited the ANC 5 years ago. Which new blood would’ve been attracted to help revive our country if the rot were cut out. JZ inc have been busy looting and covering their behinds to care about the country’s recovery from their looting.
Let anyone else in the ANC try replace Ramaphosa. We shall see. In my opinion, after Presidents Mandela and Mbeki, Ramaphosa was our best shot. As imperfect as he is, he has better sense.
What is happening in South Africa is a disgrace first of all what is working according to plan under president Ramaphosa? Food fuel electricity is expensive unemployment is higher our personal income TAX VAT import duties are high corruption is Dominating the country due to Tendering system who wants to invest in a Country like that? For me I really don’t care who rules the country as long as we have honest people to run and rebuild South Africa as for the President why can’t we vote for the President we want like in other Countries? Not Vote for a Party after the Elections they must choose a President or leaders we as voters we must choose people who we think are suitable to represent us people who thinks of South Africans before their own interest.
This is just a big big noise about nothing, Ramaphosa will still be our president after the 29 May elections!
Ramaphosa will be the scapegoat after the ANC does badly in the election. Who is likely to take over? Trevor Manuel – time to step up as there do not seem to be many options.
Trevor Manuel gave up his ANC membership long ago.
He would have been a great president.
Steenhuisen has taken the bold move of working with all parties, the DA and ANC are well known to the markets so with either on the fray the markets stay intact.
There was once a government of national unity involving people like Roulf Meyer, it will not hurt the country to visit a similar senario, ironically Ramaphosa played a huge role in that setting.
Whatever the election outcome, Ramaphosa must be denied the presidency as he has proved he’s totally incapable of firing useless and dishonest comrades in his cabinet. This is a prime reason for the rapid deterioration of our country during Ramaphosa’s tenure. If the ANC and DA join in coalition, the current corrupt ANC cabinet ministers listed in the Zondo Commission must be weeded out and replaced with ministers who are hard working and have integrity. John Steenhuisen and Glynnis Breytenbach have the strength and capability to take on the presidency but they would have to work very closely with surviving ANC ministers to avoid in-fighting. If Ramaphosa is retained as president then he will have to form a new ‘collective’ with his coalition partners in a cabinet which is free from the stigma of corruption in every sense of the word. This new ‘collective’ could support him in rebuilding the new cabinet as he would be absolved of his inherent weakness and fear of firing ‘buddies’ whose support he has had to rely for the past 6 years or so.
Stephen, you should get some more relevant issues to drum articles up about. This is pure speculation. You are speaking of “Ramaphosa’s opponents”; but how are they going to have an influence on what happens inside the ANC from the ranks of MK? Because that is where most of his opponents that used to be inside the ANC find themselves now. And Ramaphosa’s supporters know very well that the reason for the bad performance of the party is because of his opponents that tried to sabotage his presidency; and all indications are that now that they are gone, he is succeeding, slowly, but very certainly, to put those failures into bed and the state is starting to function again. May I mention just a few? Law and order- more and more prominent corrupt leaders are finding themselves in court, even the Speaker of the National Assembly had to resign; electricity – the measures he forced onto his Cabinet is bearing fruit in lower instances of load shedding & cheaper diesel prices because less diesel is used for emergency generation. Transnet is slowly but certainly starting to get its’ house in order; SAA is starting to operate again – etc etc. So actually it is not to who will be in the Presidency when coalitions need to be formed, but which other parties Ramaphosa would like to form a coalition with; and although I may be wrong, I believe that it basically is the DA that would have to decide whether they are willing to be part of that coalition. Things may well work out well for SA yet.
Roelf, well you are wrong, more diesel is being used this year than ever before to keep the lights on until the elections!
Roelf, well you are wrong, more diesel is being used this year than ever before to keep the lights on until the elections!
I think Ramaphosa will step down as President after the elections, to ensure he is not indicted for the Phala Phala fiasco, however if the DA manage to get the majority votes with their coalition partners, I hope that they investigate Ramaphosa for the CR17 funding and the dollars under the couch.