Predictions that the ANC support would drop to below 50% in Gauteng in the upcoming elections were first made in 2019 after the party garnered just 50.19% of the votes cast in the province in the elections that year.  

These predictions were firmed up when the ANC won just 36% of the votes cast in the province in the local elections in 2021. This figure has been remarkably stable since then, with a recent poll suggesting that just 35% of people in Gauteng support the party. 

Opposition parties — established and newcomers — are nipping at the heels of the governing party. 

The EFF could be kingmaker with its apparent support from, among others, black professionals, while the DA’s fortunes have seesawed in recent years.

Newcomers ActionSA, the Patriotic Alliance and Rise Mzansi are also likely to find favour with Gauteng voters, who belong to all of SA’s ethnic, language and class groups. 

It’s with this pressure in mind that Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi’s recent actions need to be scrutinised.

First, in apparent defiance of the national ANC, Lesufi helped to arrange coalition agreements with the EFF in Joburg and Ekurhuleni. Senior leaders in Ekurhuleni who said the coalition was not workable were ignored.

Then there are his actions in terms of governance.

Lesufi has said that he started the Gauteng Crime Prevention Wardens programme to help protect communities.

This has resulted in people being given uniforms, BMW SUVs and a mandate to arrest people after just one month’s training. And, as Daily Maverick has revealed, this training did not meet the required standards.

The Gauteng police commissioner at the time, Elias Mawela, told his officers not to designate any of their functions to these wardens. 

Despite that, Lesufi says the wardens have the power to make arrests as they have been officially designated as peace officers.

Questionable motive

While it can be argued that there are similarities between the “amaPanyaza”, as the wardens are called, and the Western Cape’s Leap officers, the level of training and lack of screening raise questions as to the motive behind their establishment. 

Lesufi has tried to make this a huge political issue, even claiming in a meeting that if Police Minister Bheki Cele or Justice Minister Ronald Lamola refused to gazette the wardens as peace officers, “Your days are numbered”.

There are other indications that Lesufi is prepared to cause harm to pursue a populist issue.

In the aftermath of the Usindiso building fire in the Joburg CBD last year that claimed the lives of South Africans and foreign nationals alike, Lesufi announced a commission of inquiry to be chaired by former Constitutional Court judge Sisi Khampepe and two other commissioners, one of whom was Advocate Thulani Makhubela. 

There was little indication that Makhubela had specific knowledge or experience in matters likely to arise before the commission, but of more concern was that he was a proud supporter of the xenophobic movement Operation Dudula and had not concealed this fact, with his X profile including the phrase: “South Africa for South Africans First”.

It was obvious his inclusion in the commission would lead to protests and demands that he recuse himself. In the end, he was forced to step down.

No responsible leader would appoint a person who held such views to such a commission, where migration would be a central issue, unless there was political intent. 

Last year Lesufi publicly asked Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana to scrap the R50-billion owed by Soweto residents to Eskom. He even appeared to try to take the credit for the supply of new transformers in areas where transformers had failed. This is despite the fact his provincial government plays no role in the provision of electricity. 

The sheer number of political actors in Gauteng means there are many possible permutations after the polls. If the ANC remains at around the 35% level, it will probably have to work with the DA or the EFF.

While the Gauteng ANC has worked with the EFF in Gauteng metros and councils, it would have to accept the ruling of the national ANC in making this decision. It is difficult to believe that the Gauteng ANC would govern with the EFF in the province while the ANC refused to work with the EFF at national level.

This means that the future of Gauteng may well be decided as part of a big national deal and that its next premier will be determined not just by how the ANC does in Gauteng, but how it performs nationally.

Lesufi has much to win … or lose. DM