ANALYSIS
Latest poll shows ANC’s rocky road to election, with coalition potholes ahead
The results of a new poll compiled by Wits University Professor David Everatt, together with previous polling, suggest the ANC will do worse in this year’s elections than was previously predicted, but neither the DA nor the EFF appears to be attracting the voters lost by the governing party. Should the election results mirror those of the poll, the real test for political leaders will be the negotiations that follow.
The results of a new poll showing that the ANC would win the support of only 39% of registered voters, with the DA garnering 19% and the EFF 16%, reveal how scrambled our political picture is.
Dramatic decline in electoral support of ANC clear from new national poll
The forthcoming elections may change our politics in a more dramatic way than previously predicted — the ANC is likely to lose its outright majority nationally and power could, conceivably, change hands in four provinces.
As Wits University Professor David Everatt notes, the situation in the provinces is even more complicated, with the ANC polling at only 35% in Gauteng and 26% in KwaZulu-Natal, while the DA has a possible problem, with — according to the poll — only 42% in the Western Cape supporting it.
The ANC could lose Ace Magashule’s old corruption ground, the Free State.
While political parties are likely to cast doubt on the accuracy of this poll and others (and utter the immortal phrase, “The only poll that matters is the election”), much can still change before voting day.
Politicians clearly believe that campaigning works, and they will spend much time, money and effort on this. In particular, this should provide the ANC with an advantage, simply because of its size and reach. Of the three biggest parties, the EFF may lose some ground here, because it is not able to match the geographic organisation and sheer reach of the other two bigger parties.
The unpredictability of this election means it’s difficult for political parties to enter into agreements now or even to comprehensively strategise.
The real action will occur in the hours and days after the elections. It is only then that offers will be made and deals negotiated.
The political leaders who manage this period most effectively will be in a very strong position after the elections, particularly if their parties can control the balance of power nationally, or in a province.
That said, the work done beforehand will still prove useful.
For example, based on the latest poll, it may be possible for the DA and the IFP to lead a government together in KZN. The fact they are cooperating in the Multi-Party Charter and already have a working agreement in that province would make this easier to do.
This alliance could affect other provinces too. If the DA becomes a partner of the IFP in KZN, it would be easy for the two parties to also work together in Gauteng. And, if the DA falls just short of a majority in the Western Cape, the IFP could play a small role there too.
A ‘grand coalition’
If this were to happen, smaller parties in the Multi-Party Charter would also be involved. The fact that the ACDP and the Freedom Front Plus have worked in coalitions with the DA and the IFP would make these negotiations easier.
It might be tempting for opposition parties to think this could be the beginning of a “grand coalition” that could govern in national government too.
However, the maths is against them, and the ANC still appears to be too strong — even if it wins only 39%, it would get coalition partners more easily than any other party.
However, if it did slide to, say, 42%, one of its best options may become unworkable.
As previously noted, one of the best options for the ANC, should it fall below 50%, would be to create a coalition of many smaller parties to get it well above the threshold. This would mean that no one political party and no single person would have the power to topple the coalition, allowing the ANC to stay in power while bullying the smaller parties and still retain a comfortable majority should any of them leave the coalition for whatever reason.
However, if the ANC falls to as low as 42%, this will be much more difficult, possibly pushing it into a less preferable option — a deal with a bigger party.
This would presumably be the DA or the EFF.
Over the last few months, there has been much speculation that the ANC’s “logical partner” would be the EFF. However, in areas where they do govern together, that road has been almost as potholed as the streets of Wolmaransstad.
It would render the ANC beholden to one person — Julius Malema, the only person who makes decisions for the EFF.
Working with the DA would also be extremely complicated. Even if that is the preferred option of the ANC Veterans’ League, many in the party would find it difficult to accept.
In short, one of the real risks for the ANC in this post-election period is that a debate about whether to work with the EFF or the DA splits the party into even smaller chunks.
What could tip the balance in favour of the EFF is that Malema cut his political teeth in the ANC and knows the ruling party inside out.
However, cooperating with the DA would allow the ANC to create what might well be the best-case scenario. This would involve the ANC working with the DA as part of a grand national coalition, which governs in the national government and all of the provinces.
The big attraction for the ANC is this option would make governance much easier. For those in the party who feel they must plan for the 2029 elections, drawing in a large number of parties in a grand coalition would make it harder for just the ANC to be blamed if the lives of most South Africans continue to deteriorate.
In a grand national coalition, no single party could be held solely responsible if things go even more pear-shaped.
This would be a very useful strategy for the ANC, which many voters hold responsible for many of the country’s problems.
There is one last point to be drawn from this poll and others.
They provide important evidence that our democracy is working and that voters will switch their political allegiance if their first-choice party fails to deliver.
How the ANC is being punished by voters now could be mirrored by the EFF or the DA being similarly punished by voters in the future.
What will happen in this year’s general election is still very much uncertain and all SA’s political parties will try their utmost to sway voters before they head to the ballots.
The latest poll shows how much work the political parties still need to do. DM
Become an Insider
This is, of course, a sorry reprise, of the melancholic story of how ” liberation movements ” in post-colonial Africa betray the the promises they have made to their citizens.
30 years is about the average before implosion and the S. A story is following the story book.
Of course, very few are prepared to acknowledge that the constitutional dispensation set up in 1994 was a monumental catastrophe. But this is all to apparent now. And if any -one thinks that the led-up and aftermath of these elections will be peaceful- I think they are mistaken.
Statistics over too many subjects where 11% on the margin of tolerance can swing and merge 39% to produce completely different results.
Bottom line is opposition parties have not given alternative policies to solve our problems.
They always tell us what we know about ANC individuals.
A majority of South Africans have never seen a better life before the ANC came into power so they have nothing better to compare with and that is the number that counts.
It is 30 years Kenneth and SA a young population …. so not a majority
The majority don’t vote and have not lived under any other governing party but the anc. Following ancestral voting tradition will be the death of us.
Kenneth, I am not sure if you read anything else than ANC propaganda. Most of the opposition parties have set out their agenda, the EFF with blustering and fanfare and the Da in a logical document. I suggest you read more widely before opening your mouth.
A stronger DA makes for a better negotiation for coalitions. However, from a governing perspective (let’s call it brains at the table), I would rather have some of the leaders of Change Starts Now, Rise Mzanzi, BOSA etc than candidate 100+ on the DA list as members of parliament.
Per yesterday’s article where up to 19% of voters are undecided, shows that so much is still up for grabs but it also shows the weakness of the polling. A voter who is undecided between the pool of MPC parties is a very different voter from an ANC/EFF/MK et al undecided. An historic ANC voter has the ability to break centre to the MPC and left to the EFF/RET faction. Better questions in polling would be useful.
And finally, the comparison of current polls versus previous election results is apples and oranges. The election results held zero undecided voters. You can’t say any party has declined in support when up to 19% haven’t decided yet! Again, better polling questions would understand the undecided.
That is based on the premise that most undecided voters can articulate the reasons for their indecision beyond hand-waving it as “All the parties are just as bad as the others” and actually have a shortlist of best options ready.
Whereas striking up a conversation with the average ambivalent potential voter paints an entirely different picture.
The ANC was handed a well run country ….with low unemployment. They have destroyed a wonderful country . They must be voted out
The ANC was handed a country with functional infrastructure at the time for a minority of the population and for big business. It inherited a country that was in a financial mess (remember the financial Rand and the massive round-tripping it ushered in?); collapsing under sanctions and domestic boycotts; industries – often lauded on these pages – that were set up solely with a domestic import-substitution mandate, and thus not competitive when sanctions were lifted, a spatial economy that simply reinforced segregation and the concentration of resources in largely ‘white’ areas, and the need to show immediate results for a majority who craved improved lives. It was definitely not a well-run country by any measure outside of very narrow definitions.
That the ANC (with notable exceptions like the Arms Deal) has managed to destroy much of what they managed fairly well in the first decade or so, and since the arrival of Zuma and now Ramaphosa, cannot be disputed: what I want opposition parties to do is to force Ramaphosa to be judged on his time in power – first as Deputy President and now as President, because that story is completely different to the relative success of the first decade or so of ANC rule. Force Ramaphosa to account for his term in office, it’s what the bulk of younger voters can relate to.
That is so well put and makes a very clear point that the opposition parties are simply not doing their job and really don’t deserve votes any more than their old enemy the ANC.
Well said
Very well said, thank you, it needs to be highlighted that there were improvements in various areas during the first ANC administration, and perhaps a bit in the second, that for at least the past 15 years, the situation has been seriously declining, not improving. Also, it must be highlighted that the government is completely incapable of effecticely implelenting any programme, due to corruption and maladministration and incompetence. It also needs to be presented by the opposition how they will address the critical issues facing the country
The polls were conducted before two key things happened. 1. Zuma’s new part, which could play against the ANC, but also against the IFP. 2 The DA will most certainly lose the support of Muslims, a sizable number of voters
Agreed – both could have a significant impact on the results, especially at provincial level. I reckon we haven’t seen the last of the big surprises yet, either! I wonder if Songezo Zibi and Musi Mainmane (and maybe even Roger Jardine) will be able to forge some kind of alliance before the polls? Will the MPC hold? Will MK and the plethora of RET parties started by similarly disgruntled and disgraced ex-ANC members be able to cobble something together that will make them kingmakers? Will the war in Gaza recede, giving the ANC less of a stick to beat the DA with over its stance (or perceived stance) on the issue? Will Mashatile survive the increasing pressure on him, given the trickle of accusations that is becoming a flood? These polls are interesting, but ultimately snapshots of a particular time and space.
I’m not so sure that the newer parties need to nail their colours to a particular mast before the elections — I suspect it may undermine their credibility rather than enhance it — “Just another front” type of perception. Being seen as free agents who will declare their support for specific measures based on principle and policy rather than on allegiances may ultimately get more (formerly) discouraged voters to show up at the booth.
What they do need to do is enhance their visibility by participating in debates where they are not just one of fifteen parties attending. Imagine an election debate, widely accessible with translations too, with only Maimane, Zibi and Jardine in attendance. That’s the kind of “breath of fresh air” that could reinvigorate electoral participation.
If people vote for DA then they don’t need to form a coalition and put the country back on the map
Absolutely.
That requires 50% + 1 voter to support the DA. That’s a long stretch, especially when you look at their leadership. At local level they look good. Pappas is really turning Umgeni around, and Cape Town functions at a different level from any other metro in the country. But their leadership is uninspiring at best, out of touch at worst. How they do appeal to enough voters to get in.
And I know the DA are fond of blaming voters and railing against small parties (when the then DP got less than 2% in 1994), but in the real world they have to appeal to voters, and enough of them.
Very pertinent points, thank you!
May God bless South Africa and South Africans with a steep decline in the ANC at the forthcoming elections. God knows that SA is doomed with the ANC in power.
As all know, polls are exactly that…. An opinion at a point in time, so we shall see how accurate they were when the last vote is counted.
As to coalition government, living in Johannesburg and seeing the rapid decay of a once great city managed by a coalition of councillors (could that be a new collective noun?), has made me very wary of coalitions.
The Multi Party Charter coalition looks by far the most desirable but it needs the seemingly strong cohesion between the players to solidify and remain in place. There is enough experience and business acumen in both the DA and IFP for them to start reversing the wreckage left by the ANC and they will be ably supported by the intelligence factor in the Freedom Front Plus and the remaining smaller parties. An ANC/EFF coalition would be disastrous. Thieves in bed with thieves, and Malema would swallow the timid and inept Ramaphosa in one or two gulps before proceeding to dismantle and fracture that coalition completely while milking the fiscus cash cow to death.
It’s not often I disagree but it’s pie in the sky if you’re dreaming that there is a hope of an ANC/DA alliance. The ANC will never work with the DA. They will team up with the EFF as that is the easiest route with no need to clean up – and if your assertion is that the ANC gives a toss about SA, your assertion is not backed by one single example of substance I am afraid. The EFF will give them what they need – access to the shrinking pie. Pension funds: Heads up, you’re next.
Sadly I have to agree with you.
The DA and the ANC can make a very good team and will keep each other on their toes which can be very positive.
Ever asked yourself why there is a left and right hand in one body.
We were surely created by a genius.
I disagree. The highest people in the ANC would probably want a DA coalition. The NEC ruled to distance themselves from the EFF, Veterans League members have support a DA-ANC coalition and Ramaphosa surely wouldn’t want to get back in bed with former RET members he’s just defeated. Also let’s consider the risks for the ANC. If they go into bed with the EFF, their party will surely be reverse-taken over and they’ll be at the mercy of one man (Malema). If they had a DA partner, things would look good for them. The DA would share a part of the blame for the country’s position, and the Multi-party Charter (which is active until 2029) will be shattered. So I think that the ANC-EFF coalition would only happen if the DA refuses to govern with the ANC – something that is also likely to happen.
Every run up to elections we are exposed to a plethora of different polls and possible outcomes should this or that happen. What I would really be interested in reading about is a post mortem analysis of all these polls compared to the actual result to see how accurate they were. Maybe someone out there has done this already but surely, if money is being spent on these “predictive” polls it would make sense to let the public know how accurate the predictions were. Or are they all just another way of spending money?
The DA needs to catch a wake up and realise they have a lot of work to do. Step one has to be win back the Muslim voter with a solid well thought out approach to Israel and Palestine. Stand for Israel’s right to exist and to defend itself but push back at the war in Gaza and illegal settlers while supporting negotiations for a two state settlement. It does not matter that they do not really have the influence to affect the situation but they must be seen to be making a stand.
Step two is get the message out to the voters with concrete plans on how they intend to improve life for all and above all create long term jobs. A program of positivity instead of the current ANC bashing, no one needs to be told about the ANC failings, they just want a brighter future.
What, are you expecting them to try and WIN or something crazy?! Far better to be ‘right’ than win as far as they’re concerned.
They’ve already done that. Are you per chance an anc troll John?
Very definitely not, I have voted DA or it’s predecessors since I was old enough to vote. If they were doing things right they would be increasing their share of the vote, they are however loosing share. Why do you think that is?
Because people seem more concerned about certain individuals in the party than the policies of the DA and its record of very good governance. I see little hope for South Africa when so many people continue to wear political blinkers.
Exactly, they also hold the DA to a higher standard than any other party despite the DA’s successes and other party failures
To my very simple mind if the Muslim community decide to vote based solely on the Israel/Palestine issue and thus condemn this country to more years of racism, corruption and non existent governance, they deserve every bit of trouble they get going forward.
On the DA side I just wish they would confirm who their target voter actually is. It certainly isn’t the rural voter. In the village in which I live I know for a fact that the majority have no idea where Cape Town is, let alone how well managed it is.
Over the past few weeks I have seen a lot of ANC and EFF activity with not a thing from the DA. Presence is Everything!
Thank you very much, Louise, certainly the opposition besides the EFF need to get out into the rural areas in particular, and ensure that people are aware of the alternatives to the ANC and the EFF, and how their programmes will benefit them. It is serious leg work, but that is what will be critical for the elections! Getting the vote out, and helping people to make choices that will be in their interests, and not in the interests of the parties that are only seeking to benefit their members and cadres, will make a huge difference.
It should also be called out that the election must focus on the domestic issues in the country, and how they will be addressed, trying to divert attention from those critical issues at a time of crisis for the country, especially for any populist purposes by the Government to try and divert their attention from their horrendous performance on the actual real issues for the country, is unacceptable for election purposes.
Excellent post, thank you!
Very well put and important points, thank you!
I mean, the DA has said many times that they want a two-state solution, with a secure Israel and a sovereign, UNOCCUPIED Palestine. They’ve also condemned both the Israeli-settler right and Hamas. They have also called on Israel to follow on with the ICJ ruling. What more could you want?
They’re tip-toeing, and people can tell. Only allowing Emma Powell to speak on the topic may work well for guarding against loose cannons (and even that didn’t work as intended, did it?) but it’s also not playing that well with the public. It makes it seem like a cover-up; that the average DA official might actually have a very divergent stance from the “official” talking points. Or that the majority of the DA’s base and donors are in the “turn Gaza into a parking lot” camp and the party is therefore forced to pussyfoot the issue.
The only way they will convince people that they are all on the same page on this, is to actually all be on the same page, publicly and adamantly.
With all that said, I think that holding divergent opinions should be considered acceptable on such an emotive issue (because badgering people doesn’t promote reconciliation), but I don’t think the public at large agrees with me — and electorally, it seems to be a “you will just have to pick your poison” situation instead.
Why does it feel we are trying to apply essentially US type politics/election logic? I think one of the only relevant things read recently was that a HUGE number of voters haven’t even heard of the MPC. Sadly we are still a politically immature country despite our past. The apathy towards genuinely understanding where elections can take us is almost universal.
Unfortunately that is precisely the problem.
BOTTOM LINE!
After everything they have done over the last 30+ years, around 40% of our people want more ANC.
Regardless of their obvious racism and criminality a further 15%+ want the EFF.
Despite their incredible record of management, less than 20% want the DA.
SA’s problem is not a government problem. Our problem lies in the mind numbingly high levels of stupidity and criminality in most of our population. Our leaders are nothing more than a visual cue to what is actually going on in the hearts and minds of the people.
Educated people are confused by Trump’s success, because they refuse to really listen to the simple folk that make up the majority of the US. Likewise in SA, we “the educated” scratch our heads and wonder why the ANC remains evergreen despite their obvious shortcomings, why Malema is supported despite his obvious Hitler-esque leanings. We are the real stupid ones… we cannot see what the majority see and want and until we can see this and truly address it, there will be no democracy.. not in SA and not anywhere else for that matter. The KZN riots should have taught us… the meek shall truly inherit the earth. God help us all.
Thank god I’m an atheist…
Me too… figure of speech… also only god can help us… and there is no god… ergo befucktum
There should be new electoral laws that restricts the number of political parties.
Is there anyone out there who still believes that “elections” will save the godforsaken RSA (Arse of Africa)? When will the pee pool of the sh!thole African country realize that we have gone too far down the drain to ever recover?
Corruption, crime, lack of skills, unemployment, blackouts – even the millions of potholes. We shall NEVER recover!
The pee pool deserves the government they vote for.
“In a multi-racial society where power must eventually be transferred into the hands of the numerically stronger Bantu, not only Whites, but also Coloured and Indians will go under. Over time even the Bantu masses will not benefit because on the strength of what has happened elsewhere in Africa, it must be taken into consideration that South Africa will develop into an autocracy or dictatorship. On account of their lack of ability to manage complicated administration, the country will moreover administratively and economically be destroyed and everyone – White and Coloured – end in chaos.”
Dr H.F. Verwoerd
Yeah, well, quoting the guy who single-handedly did more to destroy our beautiful country through his ridiculous racist policies than any other government official in SA’s entire history, is probably not the best way to go about highlighting how bad the current lot of politicians are….
Stop being so negative. El Salvador, which had a higher murder rate than SA, has reduced it drastically. Rwanda, who recovering from a LITERAL GENOCIDE, is now one of the most promising countries in Africa. Germany and Japan, countries bombed to rubble and that had lost over 10% of their population in WW2, are now some of the to economies in the world.
Despite the ANC’s corruption, incompetence and downright malevolence, SA still recorded economic growth in some quarters last year, albeit small. All we need is a good, anti-corruption gov in power (something that the Mukti-party Charter is looking good on) and South Africa WILL be saved. Fix loadshedding (which isn’t that hard to do – a city is doing it better than an entire country) and business can flourish. Privatise Transnet, and investors will flock in and exports will increase. Introduce the Scorpions 2.0, and confidence will be restored by investors and South Africans abroad. Many other countries have been in FAR worse places than SA, and are doing great now. It’s not over yet
Don’t pin your hopes on the DA. Just look at the stuff-up they’ve made with Tshwane. Completely disfunctional and bankrupt.
Please will DM endeavour to block spam submissions!
Whew……this article’s conclusion with the notion of an ANC DA coalition addresses only the benefits and drawbacks to the ANC but says nothing about the ROI to the DA….but then that is to be expected from the author, a known ANCer to the very end. Personally, I pray for the death and complete demise of the ANC as the only salvation for our country.
Yup, Grootes works for the ANC Government through the SABC
Politics in Africa is remarkably interesting. The opposition politicians believe they can improve people’s lives by replacing the government. That is naivete at its best. Discussing who to vote for and even voting itself is a waste of time. There is nothing Action SA, the ANC, the DA, or the EFF can do to improve South Africa meaningfully. (You can change the driver of a bus but if its route is set, the bus will end up where the route leads.) Nowhere in Africa has western style politics yielded anything positive for its people. The first African countries gained independence in the 1960s and have had multiple governments since then. Not one African country has successfully uplifted its people sustainably. I doubt South Africa will be any different no matter who leads. It first needs to fix a fundamental governance issue, which other Africa countries have failed or neglected to solve. South Africa needs to replace the current governance infrastructure before it can trust that its politics will yield dividends. This is because the west created the current governance infrastructure to ensure it will always benefit from global geopolitics (often at the expense of other countries.) This will sound weird or crazy to most, but globally accepted institutions and conventions such as the UN, its bodies and charters, the way the the world economy is structured, even SA’s constitution, and the regulatory environment are all part of western infrastructure created to benefit its creators. The non western world, including South Africa, uses these structures at its own peril.
The DA’s track record in the WC and the metro’s it governs says otherwise
PA should not be taken lightly…at provincial level, Gauteng in particular. Their stance on illegal immigration has struck a chord with most black middle class voters, who are impacted by traffickers, crime and proliferation of drugs.
And THAT is the start of anarchy!!!
Yep. DA are going to lose ground. Not because of a bias against black members, but because of alleged support for Israel (when they actually support a two state solution), funding from Jewish people (don’t think that there aren’t anti-semites out there), refusal to back Cape Independence, and a perception that they are a bit on the “woke” side of things despite Helen Zille’s ravings to the contrary. So they are going to lose support on mulitiple fronts. It doesn’t help that their leader has an unerring aim when shooting at his own feet.
the day the DA backs independence for WC is the day that i (and many of the people i know) will stop voting for them.
as broken as ZA is, we are south africa. we are not going to abandon the rest of the country. WC belongs to the whole country, not to a few that live there.
I agree. But I wonder how the FF+ gets the most votes in Gauteng and is a respected member of the MPC when they openly support Cape Independence? Very interesting
Dear moderator
Please get rid of the spam commercial
I don’t see ANC working with DA, this would be the death of both political parties
Is the learned Professor, Professor of Politics, Statistics or something else.
ANC -DA coalition won’t work. They have different ideals. EFF and ANC also cannot work because both are arrogant. Coalition is problematic where the country
does not have common objective. I think the researcher would have looked at the new parties forming alliance with PAC and MK Party. These parties may spring a surprise. People have been voting for these major parties, i.e ANC, DA, EFF and IFP but nothing sofar has been done in accordance with their expectations. Crime is high because we have no public amenities which lives our children with TV and Smartphones.
Good analysis as always.
There would however be some reprise for the DA specifically if the above scenarios pan out. There is a lot they can do at provincial level to improve the lives of people and taking the above into account, it will be the most populous provinces which will imply a huge incentive for voters to swing away from the ANC in the following elections.
Also one needs to understand the poll. There are a lot of undecided voters that are listed as voters. They will either abstain increasing the %s of all, all they will vote in the same proportion – with same result or parties can get them to vote for them. If the MPC can get a fair chunk of these, it is bye bye birdie for the ANC.
Let us hope the MPC gets rid of BEE and EE and AA in the negotiations and start by getting the right people into Eskom, procure directly from OEMs and use the money of the blue light brigades to do the criminal cases of the ZONDO commission.
How can the ANC with a corrupt government for 30 years, turn around the economy?
It’s about the ECONOMY.
Your personal dislike in Zille or Malema or any other politician is irrelevant.
You are not going to be required to date Helen Zille … if you vote for the DA.
Grow up and think about what’s good for the country?
It’s mostly about the ECONOMY!
We emigrated to Australia in 1971. Having experienced Coalition Governments at Feseral and State levels in Australia the major power lies with the minor Party. It is The Kingmaker.
NO ONE BELIEVES YOUR DOCTORED POLLS
I wonder if the German election system that no party below 5% gets into parliament. It would make it impossible for a 1% part y to force the coalition to elect they’re totally incompetent member to get the
position of mayor for instance.
All the parties seem implicated in carrying on their grand lifestyle