ANALYSIS
KZN provincial battlefield will present a major challenge to ANC’s continued grip on power
There is now more evidence, from the dynamics on the ground and the actions of political parties, that KwaZulu-Natal will be a major election battleground. Perhaps even the election battleground of 2024.
Much has changed in KwaZulu-Natal since the 2019 elections. There are now more actors and more variables, making it entirely possible that the ANC will fall below 50% in the important province in the upcoming general election, with the DA and the IFP on course to work together wherever applicable.
Five years ago, in the aftermath of the national and provincial elections, it was widely believed that Gauteng would be the next major battleground because of the narrowness of the ANC’s victory there.
It could not have been predicted at the time that in the 2021 local elections the ANC would lose outright control of eThekwini and drop to just 41% of the vote for the entire province.
It is for this reason that three of SA’s four biggest political parties will hold their election manifesto launches at the Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban: the ANC, the EFF and the IFP (the DA is scheduled to launch its manifesto in Pretoria).
There are many reasons why KZN is so important.
First, as the second-most populous province in South Africa, there is a structural reason to concentrate resources here. Most voters cast their ballot for the same party in the national elections and the provincial elections (especially as they vote at the same time, with two separate ballot papers). This means the parties that campaign hard in KZN will get more bang for their buck.
This was certainly the case in the past. When Jacob Zuma became leader of the ANC, the party’s share of the vote in KZN increased dramatically. At the time, KZN had a bigger population than Gauteng. This had a major impact on the ANC’s national share of the vote while ensuring the ANC controlled the KZN legislature.
The MK factor
Second, the province has more political ingredients than ever before.
The presence of the IFP has given the province a unique political landscape.
Now, the presence of the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party with Zuma as its highest-profile campaigner is going to scramble the egg even further, with the ANC having to campaign against its former leader and its usual foes, the DA and the IFP.
It has never happened before in democratic South Africa that a governing party has had to campaign against one of its former leaders — and in his heartland.
Zuma is likely to concentrate on attacking the ANC, so even if his party does not win a significant share of the national vote, he will still be a sizeable distraction. Despite what some in the ANC’s National Executive Committee wish, he will be impossible to ignore.
Other factors make this province more complicated still.
Voters in KZN have changed their political choices more than voters in other provinces — the province has been governed by both the ANC and the IFP. The Western Cape has been controlled by the DA since 2009, while the seven other provinces have only been governed by the ANC.
For decades, the three most important leaders in KZN were King Goodwill Zwelithini as leader of the amaZulu, Prince Mangosutho Buthelezi as IFP leader and traditional prime minister and, for nine years, Zuma as President of South Africa. Zwelithini has died to be replaced by King Misuzulu kaZwelithini, but with his kingship facing several legal challenges, there is no long-term stability in this area.
Buthelezi has also died, and Velenkosini Hlabisa is the first person other than the IFP founder to lead the party.
And Zuma is no longer president, faces criminal charges, and has turned his back on the ANC.
Fear of violence
Many in KZN fear that violence could be a feature of these elections. The riots sparked by the jailing of Zuma in July 2021 still loom large over the province and fears of a recurrence are very real.
Politically, in the past five years, various opposition parties have started to work together.
While the formation of the Multi-Party Charter has not necessarily shaken our national politics, in KZN there have been results.
The DA and the IFP have signed a Service Delivery Pact in the province, and have worked together in two by-elections in eThekwini, where one party would not field a candidate if the other party had a chance of defeating the ANC in a ward.
The IFP has shown growth since 2019, while the DA may have a very strong premier candidate, uMngeni Mayor Chris Pappas.
As with other provinces in this year’s general election, turnout will be key to the result in KZN.
Across the nation, the middle classes are angrier than ever. The fact that a group called the eThekwini Ratepayers Protest Movement exists shows how frustrated people are with delivery issues there.
The proposed ratepayers’ protests reveal a genuine sense of grievance over the ANC’s stewardship of the province. Disgruntled voters in the province may turn out to a greater degree than in other provinces, which could be key to the result. The ANC in KZN is going to be under greater pressure than ever before.
It has been consistently reported that ANC national leaders are unhappy with the KZN provincial leadership. The national government’s decision to intervene in the eThekwini administration is but one proof of this. The province’s legal testimony that eThekwini has failed to fix its sewage systems also points to deep unhappiness with the city’s administration.
KZN has often set trends in our politics. It was Zuma’s dominance in the ANC that allowed him to dominate the national stage. Tensions between the ANC and the IFP during the transition to democracy were a major factor at that time.
While the ANC is going to campaign hard over the next few months, the complexity of the environment means it’s unlikely to stay above 50% in KZN.
A provincial coalition will almost certainly become necessary. While forming such a compromise could be a very complicated political deal, it may be the solution that this mighty but embattled province needs. DM
Couple points.. 1: If you do your homework Stephen you will know that ANC basically stole (bought) last local election in Ethekweni, starting by raiding the voting and cutting the generator at Moses Mabidi stadium I think it was. So they already should not be in power there. 2: KwaZulu Natal is unfortunately historically prone to political violence, so we pray it does not go that way. If there is more July type riots I strongly believe there will be a lot more “Phoenix’s” out there. People are more prepared and gatvol. 3. The “international election swayers” no doubt employed behind the scenes to try and fix the next election outcome, are a hell of a lot smarter than all of us at what they do. Perhaps far fetched, but could MK not give some a new reason to vote where they may not have, and then sell themselves to the ANC? They wouldn’t be the first… 4. We should all be telling friends and family to pull finger and get out there and vote. If you’re apathetic then you are part of the problem. It is the only way, we live in a democracy, get over it if you don’t like the fact, but just bloody vote!
There are also three versions of the ANC in KZN – Ramaphosa’s, Zandile Gumede’s, and Zweli Mkhize – There is also a political unexploded bomb planted by the Nationalist Party in the Ingonyama trust. The IFP may well light that fuse as the ANC has long had it in its sights as it gives the Amakhose the power to control councillors in rural communities.
Right.
Check the excuses for not voting after the elections. Could be interesting….
May the ANC get their just desserts in KZN, after 3o years of corruption, intolerance, mismanagement and vindictiveness against any form of opposition.
From your lips to God’s ears!
We do live in interesting times.
I fervently hope that the voter turnout in this election will be fantastic!
Why no mention of Team Sugar?
Very good! It really is time for a major change now. Took long enough…
Would it not be great if KZN was excluded from the National Elections being the Premier rouge province
I was thinking along similar lines. Living in the Western Cape, I wouldn’t mind being shot of all the other provinces, with the possible exception of the Northern Cape whose electorate might, I think, be persuaded of the advantages of being part of a Greater Cape (Province?)
Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, Western Cape…..
The Cape of Good Hope?
KZN is surely the most divided province in the country. Each of the major parties there are power houses in specific areas and this all adds to the decimation of ANC rule. A DA/IFP coalition seems to be by far the best solution to the disastrous management of the province by the ANC who appear to do nothing to mitigate the major issues left by mega weather issues, riots, political assassinations, and endemic corruption in the Durban hierarchy.
Its about time the ANC gets kicked out of government – they have destroyed our country in its totality.
A total knock out.
Most of the warlords from before 1992 are probably dead by now, but their legacy lives on.
Every political analysis should take into account these people.
Sometimes they are formal Indunas, sometimes just the most charismatic person in the district (and districts follow clan boundaries, not electoral ones), sometimes ANC bigwigs who somehow never make it to the city, and even occasionally DA politicians who stitch alliances like spiders spin webs.
Back in the bad old days, you crossed from one boundary, never marked on maps, to another with guns pointing at you.
These people are still responsible for many strange things : Daily Maverick has covered how some Indian tenant sugar farmers have suddenly had crops cut and mansions built, which appear on no property register and pay no property taxes.
Of course in towns and cities they have less weight. But when you look at local government wards in KZN, in places like Howick for example, you realise that what happens in town is less important than what happens in “townships” and “farms” way out of town (thanks to apartheid, let us not forget).
even if there is a big turnout and a big swing, how likely is it that the embedded cadres leave their positions peacefully?
Town ABC was ANC for years, it has cadres in all the key positions. A big turnout and swing sees multiparty coalition plus IFP cooperation at 70%. Now, see how the new majority unseats cadres from executive positions like head of electricity or housing or roads…
Same at national level. A change in ruling party does not equal all those cadres in DG and DDG and CEO and CFO positions of Departments, SOE and Agencies are summarily dismissed. They will cling
A lot of credit is being given to Zuma who has lost votes at the helm of the ANC and as a person who campaigned for the ANC in 2021. The critical issue is that the MK Party that will have another very funny name when the courts have dealt with Zuma and his obscure traditional and church leaders as well as tenderpreneurs. He has not been able to shake the IFP in his own backyard. The KZN has a congested political landscape of people who are pursuing the infrastructure of the stomach as the Nigerians would put corruption. The departure of Zuma is a blessing to the ANC in disguise because it has been able unite the ANC factions since his self expulsion. The strategic decision by Ramaphosa to take Zikalala into Cabinet and have Mdumiseni Ntuli to head elections has been a master stroke. The ANC with Zuma in 2021 was chased out of Newcastle where the Sugar Team holds sway. This includes areas like Dannhauser, Ladysmith nd Estcourt. The ANC is going to be able to decimate Zuma with the wrangling leadership of the party that has not been launched and has no policies. Ntuli and Zikalala with their own people are going to unite with the former Zuma people, Mtolo and Duma to decimate Zuma with people like Mchunu and others. The leadership of the MK Party which is a Zuma stokvel is not going to do much damage to the ANC as people who left because of Zuma are set to return also. The gimmicks of motorcades and opportunism will not yield very much for Zuma. He is damaged goods.
The atmosphere is filled with the MK formation in the province of the KwaZulu-Natal and many of the ANC disgruntled votes are more excited than ever seen.
To end this, the ANC is seen crippled with the new MK party to contest in the province.