Last week’s Constitutional Court judgments define how independent candidates will be elected to seats in the National Assembly and provincial legislatures. While these judgments are almost certainly final for next year’s elections, South Africa’s process of electoral reform is not over.

It is likely that after the elections there will be another, probably longer, process that will lead to bigger changes in how our elections are run. This could result in a system including some form of constituency democracy, with MPs representing geographic areas (although the Constitution is clear that there must be a system of proportional representation).

This may be the right moment to consider what impact, if any, independent candidates will have on our politics.

First, it is not clear if any of these candidates will win a seat in the National Assembly next year. They will have to attract large support to be elected — probably at least 50,000 votes, depending on how many people vote.

In the past, groupings like Black First Land First and Women Forward were among those who failed to get a single seat. Even the Socialist Revolutionary Workers Party, backed by the country’s biggest union, Numsa, failed to get a single seat in 2019.

Also, there is currently no independent candidate who can come close to matching the election machinery of the major political parties. Even the smaller parties have more resources, better organisation and more experience than just about any independent candidate.

All of the parties represented in Parliament have name recognition and experience, while almost every individual considering running for a seat will not be nearly as well known as any political party.

The only possible exception to this is if someone who is currently leading a political party leaves that party and runs as an independent — which seems unlikely at this late stage.

Because of the dynamics of our elections, it may be easier for some independents to run for seats in the provincial legislatures. They would require fewer votes to get in and would be better known within their communities, with a bigger voice in these smaller structures.

It is also not clear that anyone who wants to have an impact on our society would see the independent candidate route as the best choice.

Even the most well-known independent candidate so far, Zackie Achmat, has a group of people around him. It is not entirely clear what the advantage of running as an independent is, when he could simply ask those people to join him in a formal party. The campaigning and message would be the same and there would be more voices to multiply his message. 

Running as an independent will almost certainly be more difficult than the relatively straightforward task of forming a political party.

Community representation

All of that said, there may well be communities who decide they want to be represented directly in the National Assembly.

For example, residents in Diepsloot may be so angry at the lack of policing in their area that they decide to elect someone to the National Assembly.

They may well be able to get the votes to do that. And that person would, theoretically, be able to give their problems a national voice.

That person may also feel unrestricted in Parliament as they would not be bound to any party structure or discipline.

In situations similar to this, such as in local politics where a political party has lost control over a councillor, this has led to chaos.

In Joburg, Cope was unable to stop Colleen Makhubele from effectively removing the DA coalition from power, while giving power to the ANC and the EFF. As a reward, she became the council Speaker.

The only thing preventing an independent in the National Assembly from performing similar actions would be their fear of being voted out in the next election.

That may not be enough.

Also, while the idea of independents representing singular constituencies sounds unprecedented, it certainly tallies with events that have occurred in the past.

The African Independence Congress was created in the town of Matatiele in 2005 as a result of that community’s frustration with the national government’s refusal to heed their grievances about the border between KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. 

The party was created to move the provincial boundary so that the town would stay in KZN.

Through intense mobilisation it was able to win seats in Parliament, and then, in 2016, four seats in Ekurhuleni. The party said it would support the ANC in that metro in return for moving the provincial boundary around Matatiele.

However, despite promises from the ANC, that did not happen. Instead, the party appeared to be riven by disputes and unhappiness.

Any independent representing a particular community in Parliament, or a provincial legislature, may find themself similarly frustrated.

After all, they would be just one voice that could be drowned out by the 399 other, more well-organised voices.

Strange political situations

The introduction of independents also creates the potential for strange political situations to develop.

For example, a person with a particular interest in one aspect of governance — say, electricity — could contest an election saying explicitly that they want to be the Cabinet minister for that position, and then, if they get enough votes, and the governing party needs support for a coalition, demand that post.

The power that any independent or group of independents has will likely be determined more by the political context than their actions. If, for example, the ANC and the Multi-Party Charter each got 199 seats, then just two independents would hold the balance of power.

But this is an extremely unlikely scenario. In most other scenarios, there would still be other smaller parties that can make a world of difference. 

Still, in an era of coalitions, independents could conceivably, from time to time, hold the balance of power.

This could go two ways.

Perhaps, they would listen to their conscience, think of the community that elected them and, because there is no structure forcing them to behave otherwise, behave constructively.

On the other hand, they could decide to behave like Makhubele, or as the Patriotic Alliance did in Nelson Mandela Bay after the 2016 local elections. 

Whatever happens, it is likely that in next year’s elections, independents will play only a small part. Except for Achmat, no one has been able to build a prominent public profile campaigning as an independent. Achieving political power is probably going to be easier through classical means — with political parties.

Unless things change significantly, and despite all the hype, independent candidates are going to make very little difference in our politics. DM