South Africa

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COAL COMFORT

Mantashe casts shade on renewables at COP28, stresses importance of baseload power

At a panel discussion about unlocking renewable electricity in South Africa at the South African pavilion at Cop28, one audience member — Gwede Mantashe — was seemingly unconvinced.

Gwede Mantashe, South Africa's mineral resources and energy minister. (Photo: Dwayne Senior / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

By Ethan van Diemen

7 Dec 2023

As world leaders and climate experts gathered at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai to address the intensifying climate crisis, South Africa’s Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe, came close to courting controversy with remarks that cast doubt on the country’s commitment to renewable energy.

During a panel discussion at the South African Pavilion on “Unlocking Renewable Electricity in South Africa”, he expressed reservations about the reliability of renewable technologies and emphasised the continued importance of baseload generation — a byword for coal infrastructure in the South African context.

Rising to his feet as a member of the audience and sporting a black and white dashiki, Mantashe said he had just three questions:

“We talk of unlocking renewables in a country where 7,500 megawatts of energy are from renewables, where 3,800 megawatts are under construction, where embedded generation is deregulated and is therefore a moving target. So is the selection of the term ‘unlocking’ the correct one? Because renewable energy development in South Africa is in full steam.”

Mantashe continued explaining that “my second question is why do we emphasise a single technology — renewables — without talking to challenges that go with them? For example, the need for baseload to partner with renewables. If there is no baseload, renewables become a challenge in themselves and in the discussion that is totally closed. Nobody talks about it. Why are we doing that? Because if that is the case, it may constitute misrepresentation because it doesn’t present a full story. And researchers must tell us why is Germany all of a sudden going back to nuclear.”

“The last one: financing. The financing, is it grants? Is it concessional loans? Is it loans that leads to indebtedness of the country? That is the last one,” said Mantashe.

In response to the first question, Bhavna Deonarain, Senior Project Manager for Climate, Energy and Water at the National Business Initiative (NBI) said “maybe instead of ‘unlocking’ we should say ‘fast-tracking’ rather. The next steps are how to fast track and ensure we do have renewables online to deal with some of the energy security issues that we are facing in the country as well.”

Read more in Daily Maverick: COP28 news hub

Responding to question two about baseload, Neil Cole, from the Just Energy Transition (JET) Project Management Unit in the Presidency, said, “the way that we’ve thought about it is what is South Africa’s energy requirement by 2030? And that 2030 date is linked to our five-year plan that has just been adopted.

“And if it is at about 75 gigawatts that we require by 2030, I think it is an important target to then keep in mind and I think it is also the guide for an Integrated Energy Plan which is going to have to be a mix that gets you to 75 [gigawatts]. And in that 75 gigawatts by 2030, you’re still going to have coal power stations, I mean Kusile and Medupi are still going to be running into the 2040s and even into the 2060s.

“But we are going to see a decommissioning of coal power stations, partly because of our NDC targets but also because many of those coal power stations are coming to the end of their lifespan. I think it would be irresponsible as a government to say that you’re going to jeopardise that target of 75 gigawatts by 2030 and I think there is an acceptance that that’s going to have to be a mix of energy sources that gets you there. So it’s important to raise this issue of baseload, but maybe what’s more important is what gets us to 75 gigawatts by 2030.”

In response to Mantashe’s third question, Cole explained that “on the loans and indebtedness, the president’s message here at COP28 has been clear: we’re going to have to get more grants into financing the JET Investment Plan. From our international partners, the original IPG partners and the newer ones who have joined, we are now sitting at just over $700-million and we think we can push that into one billion in grants in 2024.” DM

Comments (10)

District Six Dec 8, 2023, 09:28 AM

Still banging the "base-load' drum, eh? Like a stuck record. At least they have now abandoned that other old chestnut, "the Sun does not shine at night." This government has done everything in its power to hamper and disrupt renewable generation in South Africa. Everything. What they have effectively done now is to privatise electricity generation in Mzansi. Corporates and the wealthy classes can access electricity by private LAN generation. The rest of us are left with whatever diminishing scraps Eskom can produce.

JanLouis du Toit Dec 8, 2023, 09:54 AM

Can you point me to a source that provides a financially viable solution to the intermittency and grid capacity problem associated with renewables?

Johan Buys Dec 9, 2023, 03:31 PM

JanLouis: Renewables LCOE is in SA about 50c/kWh. Pumped storage is 60c/kWh fully accounted. I’m not bothering with solving the grid. For now I am taking my factory from mainly grid and diesel to solar plus storage that handles nearly MW of peak loads. When it suits me I use grid (overnight low loads). It costs me half what grid costs. Game over for grid

Bernhard Scheffler Dec 12, 2023, 09:26 AM

JanLouis: Already in 2019, Denmark had 57% variable wind electricity, 80% renewable electricity, and little fossil fueled power. And no batteries at the scale claimed above. Yet it has some of the world’s most reliable power, where the annual power outage is below 20 minutes. Its cost of electricity to industry and commerce (non-household consumers) is well below the EU average. Its former dependency Iceland has had 100% renewables (no battery or other grid backing) since 2006. And costs low enough to house the largest Google and Microsoft servers, Bitcoin mining and refining for export imported aluminium ore (as at the Richards Bay smelters). It even considered building the world's longest underseas HVDC cables to export its cheap electricity to the UK and to Europe.

Dave Martin Dec 8, 2023, 04:21 PM

I agree Jan Louis, I also want to know what he proposes to deal with renewable variability. The crazy thing is that probably half the commenters now have solar systems and they can easily see that on cloudy days they have to use Eskom as a backup. What does everyone think Eskom is going to use it as a backup if it is similarly dependent on the weather? Renewables require dispatchable energy as a backup. This is an indisputable fact.

Johan Buys Dec 9, 2023, 03:35 PM

Nope Dave : one of my plants exports more solar than it draws grid power per year (factory not Mountain hut). I have not run diesel since September. Yes I have a lot of battery storage. Yes at night I use 40kW from grid but my solar runs entire factory of 300kW loads, with stored solar filling in shortage of real-time solar. And it costs now more than R1/kWh less than grid, Never mind what diesel would have cost.

Dave Martin Dec 31, 2023, 12:03 PM

Johan, saying that you produce more energy than you consume IN TOTAL is not relevant. South Africa could easily install 100 GW of Solar and produce more energy than it consumes in a day while still experiencing 12 hours of loadshedding every single night. An electrical grid must be able to supply total demand at every second of every day otherwise the grid collapses. Producing a surplus of energy at midday and then imagining that somehow balances your need to draw from the grid at night is nonsensical. How is the grid going to manage such a giant spike in demand every night if all factories did that? There is only one way that could be managed and it's called: gas. Your point that your setup costs R1 less than the grid is also a logical fallacy. The city buys electricity from Eskom for about 90c/kWh and then marks it up to about R2.50/kWh to fund municipal services. So if everyone goes offgrid, the municipality will have to get that money from you in another way, most likely through dramatically higher municipal rates. So now you'll be paying much more for electricity+rates than you were when paying for electricity from the municipality and funding services in the process.

Bernhard Scheffler Dec 11, 2023, 10:03 PM

Renewables do NOT require backup at ANYWHERE NEAR the 100% scale you claim. My solar system has weathered the past several days of heavily overcast weather without any assistance from the grid, or from any other fossil fueled power.

Dave Martin Jan 5, 2024, 09:14 AM

Bernhard, please provide specifications of your system: kW of PV panels kWh of batteries Average daily household usage of electricity in kWh Then we can scale that up and calculate what it would cost the country to be similarly independent of fossil fuels.

Jeremy Collins Dec 8, 2023, 10:07 AM

It's just maths. If kickbacks from renewables could exceed the numbers generated under the current Mantashe Retirement Plan, aka The Karpowership Scam, it is guaranteed Gwede will be 100% behind clean energy. It helps to see Gwede as one of 'those' metro cops: he needs his KFC money if you want to proceed on your journey.

Middle aged Mike Dec 8, 2023, 10:37 AM

Nailed it. Everything he and his very large group of colleagues in the 'shareholder' do should be viewed firstly through the lens of what's in it for them.

Mike Schroeder Dec 8, 2023, 11:55 AM

Germany going back to nuclear? Then comrade Greedy must know a lot more than the Germans, who have just switched off their last nuclear plants ...

Lisbeth Scalabrini Dec 8, 2023, 02:16 PM

Mantashe counts on the ignorance of the masses and forgets that not everybody

Lisbeth Scalabrini Dec 8, 2023, 02:20 PM

Mantashe counts on the ignorance of the masses and does not think that his lies will be discovered and forgets that not everybody belongs to that class. Many of his colleagues have the same conviction.

D Rod Dec 8, 2023, 02:05 PM

Importance of baseload.... To his corrupt pockets, that is..

Cunningham Ngcukana Dec 8, 2023, 02:40 PM

A country that expects to have its energy from grants is not a country. The position of Gwede Mantashe is correct on the electricity issue. What just transition can be there when we do not have electricity and jobs are being threatened by the challenge of energy in this country. We cannot transition from darkness to renewables and that is the nonsense of following countries with the requisite resources for nuclear energy and we do not have the money and time. India is going on building coal powered electricity power stations as well as China because they need to first have the energy to drive their economy and societies. We are told to skip stages of development at what cost to the country? The media lobby for renewables is deliberately misrepresenting Mantashe on this issue because all what he is saying let us have the requisite base load first and electricity to drive the economy so that we do not transition in darkness. Also, people must not peddle lies that renewables are a source of reliable energy as Europe would not have turned back to their coal stations if it were so. We are exporting coal to Europe as we speak for their energy. The issue of renewables requires a lot of things from a base load, transmission lines at the correct frequency and these come in dribs and drabs from people with sharp teeth and shoes of 50 MW. We must transition at a pace and cost we can affords that is all what is Qwathi is saying not the lies we hear.

Middle aged Mike Dec 8, 2023, 04:46 PM

I think this is what's known as Mantashing. We have twice the people generating half the electricity that we used to. Nothing else needs to be said by any of the klepto-commies on the subject as it's more than clear that they haven't a clue how to resolve the problems even if they had the will which they quite clearly don't.

mike muller Dec 8, 2023, 04:19 PM

Pumped storage will certainly help to even out the uneven and unreliable supply from solar and wind and has the great advantage of being flexible - it can be turned on within minutes, as needed to meet peak demands. That's why a match of intermittent renewables and pumped hydro may be better than fixed nuclear whose output has to be kep more or less constant. And it doesn't need much water - it just recirculates most of it. What you DO need is a landscape with large steep drop and locations for two relatively small dams top and bottom that can hold enough water for a day's worth of power generation . And, yes, they will need a source from which they can be topped up regularly but it's not like you need a large river flow all the time.

Johan Steynvaart Dec 8, 2023, 04:36 PM

Who was responsible for the deterioration of our "baseload" in the first place?

jacquesandrieslouw@gmail.com Dec 8, 2023, 08:54 PM

The definition of baseload generating capacity is that it is allways available when needed. With coal powerstations reliability at present though renewables with gas tubine backup would be more reliable to be available when needed.The lead time to build additional capacity would also be much shoter,approxamately 2years apposed to the more than 10 years to get Medupe and Kosile up to full capacity.

Johan West Dec 9, 2023, 06:33 PM

Must be that stomach casting the shadow. When energy flows from the sun directly to the consumer theres nothing for the comrades to steal...

Michelle El Dec 11, 2023, 02:47 PM

Well said by Gwede, and well done on him for broaching the subject and calling out the hypocrisy of renewables. I've yet to see any renewables mined or manufactured without fossil fuels! Not to mention the massive waste management implications of renewables at the end of their very short lives. Notice also how in the embedded video the climate journalist provides no evidence to prove how reduced CO2 outputs will keep temperature increases below 1.5°C in dispute with the conference president! She just appeals to authority and restates that his claims are false! This is how they "Do Science" on the side of the fence that claims to "Own The Science". Not to be trusted, at all.

Michele Rivarola Dec 13, 2023, 06:18 PM

Mantashe does not even know how to spell base load never mind understand the technicalities around generating power and transmitting it. If the EAF of current lant is anything to go by the abundant fossil fuel trolls need to explain how building a 4800 MW coal fired power station that with proper flue gas scrubbing can only produce less than half of that contributes to base load when it is shut down half of the time. The whole world is changing to renewables and for good reason yet we have here a whole lot of wannabe scientists who don' know the difference between a Joule and Watt pretending to know all about how to design, construct, model, control and run power distribution systems.

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