ANALYSIS
MIA: Soon Ramaphosa will have to demonstrate willingness and strength to lead South Africa – or else
It has become common for many people to publicly question if our leaders are prepared to actually lead. The obvious focal point of this is President Cyril Ramaphosa, who was elected into office to lead the people of South Africa in times when almost everyone’s lived experience is deteriorating. These calls are now becoming louder, even while there may be important reasons preventing him from acting, thus rendering him politically impotent.
Coming out of the ANC’s December conference, and judging solely by the maths, President Cyril Ramaphosa has emerged with a stronger mandate than ever before. As the ANC is going into a very tough election next year, this apparent mandate suggested that there was now space for Ramaphosa to move, especially when faced with a democratic incentive to act decisively to solve some of our problems – or at least give hope they will be solved.
And yet, not much of that is happening. Why?
Last week, former finance minister and now chair of Old Mutual Trevor Manuel said that many of our society’s problems had been exacerbated by weak leadership. He is just the latest in a long line of people to have made the same point.
In fact, for many years it has been argued by some in the commentariat and elsewhere that one of our major problems has been a lack of leadership.
In a country defined by racialised inequality, which requires a united and comprehensive effort to overcome our problems, leadership matters. Voters know this, which is why they demand it so strongly.
There can also be an emotionally important comfort in the feeling of “being led”. This is why sports teams often need an inspirational leader, and why some political groups have almost fanatical followers. Part of the reason for that apparent fanaticism is that their leaders have given them a direction and space to follow.
One of the reasons people support a Donald Trump or a Lula da Silva is that they make them feel good about themselves. It’s an important part of leadership.
When asking whether Ramaphosa is failing to lead, it may be important to first look at who is asking the question, and what it is that they really want.
An example here may be how a lot of people believe Ramaphosa should remove those in government against whom findings were made by the Zondo Commission.
For them, it would be showing leadership to act publicly and decisively against corruption. After all, this is what he has promised to do, many times.
But for others, it would be demonstrating leadership to protect people in the ANC. After all, to remove those with findings could simply be to give in to demands from opposition parties. They would argue that the unity of the ANC is paramount, and anything that might affect that would be the opposite of displaying leadership.
This may get us to the heart of the problem – that our country is so divided, the right option is not always very clear. Which can lead to a paralysis of sorts.
This may have happened in other places, too, where weak leadership is often blamed.
Added to this is the complexity of some of our problems.
For example, Ramaphosa was probably pushed both by people in Cabinet and in the ANC to declare a National State of Disaster over our electricity crisis. That was despite being aware of a legal opinion that it was legally irrational to do so.
In the end, he was in a position where he had to do it. And then, as legal action commenced, his government was forced to declare an end to the National State of Disaster, less than two months later.
The Electoral Amendment Act signed into law by Ramaphosa on Monday is another example.
Here the ANC and other political parties have produced a bill that will make our elections worse. But if he did not sign it into law, he could be found to be in contempt of a Constitutional Court order. Now that he has signed it, at least one group has said it will go back to court to declare this law unconstitutional.
Here, he was damned no matter what he did – such are the problems our society currently throws up.
Then the current political situation around him may be far more complicated than it appears on the surface.
While it is true that he was re-elected with a bigger mandate in December, that was just after a tumultuous week in which he reportedly came close to resigning. It appears that it was only because of the intervention of the ANC’s chair, Gwede Mantashe, that he stayed in office.
This suggests that, even now, Ramaphosa owes him an immense debt. And this may explain why it can appear that Mantashe is able to still play such a big role in our electricity crisis.
As the ANC leader, it is obvious that Ramaphosa cannot move without his base constituency.
While voters have become accustomed to divisions and fights within the ANC, the slow-motion nature of the political car crash in the party may have hidden how bad things are.
In Mangaung last week, Papi Mokoena was elected to the position of mayor representing a different party (he was an ANC mayor there many years ago). This is because ANC councillors refused to attend the meeting, partly because several ANC councillors voted for a DA councillor to be speaker.
Two ANC councillors who had been expelled from the party attended the council meeting, thus giving it a quorum and allowing Mokoena’s election.
Technically, the ANC has the majority in this metro. They have lost control because of internal divisions and because their own councillors were prepared to work against their own party.
It appears that the ANC in the National Assembly may not be very different.
Already five MPs have defied the party whip in the Phala Phala vote, with no action being taken against them.
And it may not be long before such divisions on one issue or another appear within the ANC caucus in the National Assembly or the National Council of Provinces.
Perhaps Ramaphosa’s biggest problem is that the ANC is so fractured and paralysed that it is almost impossible to act.
However, it could also be argued that despite all of these problems, Ramaphosa is still the president: he took the oath, accepted the nomination and very deliberately sought office.
This gives him a moral obligation to lead, one way or another. It means that he cannot use any of these obvious problems as perennial excuses. If he believes our problems are too difficult, or the ANC too fractured, or our society simply too argumentative to be led by him, he can resign.
He has not yet chosen to resign – so as long as he occupies the position, he has a moral obligation to lead, no matter what obstacles come in his way.
While it is true that a strong leader can make people feel better about themselves, it is also true that a weak leader, or an absent leader, can make people feel worse about themselves.
Weak leadership can lead to people turning on that leader – or even on each other.
There may be signs that this is already happening; that some of our problems, in particular rolling blackouts, are leading to more tension in our society.
Some of this will soon be directed at Ramaphosa himself. He will have to display that there’s still a burning desire to help his own people – or walk away. It still depends on him.
His Joe DiMaggio moment is now. DM
Become an Insider
“This may get us to the heart of the problem – that our country is so divided, the right option is not always very clear.”
I beg to differ: The RIGHT option is crystal clear.
It is the desired option that is partisan.
We just have a C word problem:
communists, cadres, consensus, comrades, collectivism, counterproductive, chaos, calamity, crumble, collapse, catastrophe, carnage, cataclysm, contamination, cruel, chaotic, confused, careless, condescending, corrupt,
(Not grammatically correct) but i agree, it’s anC problem..
Love it! You are obviously too polite to include the one C word that the ANC collective are are bunch of…..
HAHA!! Well said, we were all thinking it:)
My first thought, too.
We can start A-word list and N-word lists too
… and Cyril
Or else, nothing! He is a lame duck, appointing friends and cadres to his enormous cabinet and presidency before he retires to his luxurious property on the Cape Town seaboard where a ghost writer will pen his incredible memoirs! There never was a “long game”, rather a long shame.
Sorry Stephen Grootes this article just perpetuates a basic untruth; That this man has had his hands tied the entire time. That he faces a daily balancing act which leads to inaction. Wrong.
A president needs strength and willingness to act to protect his country at whatever cost. He has been pussyfooting around ever since he came on the scene. Besides help with creating our constitution, I cannot think of anything good he has actually DONE. Seriously now, can you?
There are 300,000 miners who might disagree – he built the National Union of Mineworkers into a powerful organisation which staged a very effective strike. Then yes, there was the delicate process of the Constitution and chairing the Reception Committee for returned exiles. His Foundation has done wonderful work, and recently transformed several Free State schools from dismal to excellent! He also did excellent work on the National Planning Commission. There is a lot to celebrate, but I agree with Stephen: NOW is the time for him to LEAD!
Whatever good he did in the past has been wiped out by his total ineptitude as the leader of the country. The man couldn’t lead a party of heavy beer drinkers to a free evening in a brewery.
NUM might disagree! He sold out to the bosses and became their BEE pet.
Raymond, Cyril was also the principal architect of this ill-conceived political system which has centralised power and enabled the watched to appoint their own watchers; a system with such weak checks and balances that subjugation thereof commenced almost immediately following the first democratic election.
The democratic world can be grateful that the founding fathers of the USA weren’t as myopic and self-serving.
Well said, I totally agree! Maggie Thatcher was often criticized for many of her policies, but she was a strong leader and got things done. Cyril is just a nobody and seems scared of his own shadow.
Concur Derek. One of the problems we have is that people still debate and have discourse about a situation that is so obviously hopeless, as if there is some way out if only the ruling party and its president will come to its senses. The ANC belongs to the rubbish heap of politics. It is impossible for them to be part of any solution in South Africa because THEY ARE THE PROBLEM!
Agreed Derek Jones, I am tired of the poor standard of journalism from people like Stephen Grootes who should know better.
Name one African leader ( apart from Nelson Mandela) who has risen to the occasion, led by example and actually cares for the people and long term survival of his country? Go on…I dare you!
Today’s ANC has nothing to offer South Africa: it is a number of competing ponzi schemes, all fighting for riches at the expense of ordinary South Africans. Every Cabinet meeting, NEC Lekgotla, and all the way down to branch meetings in rural areas is a contestation between various factions for influence, power-mongering and patronage. The sooner we get rid of this scoundrel elite the better.
Agreed!
It looks like it is time that the ANC are removed from running our country and remain as an overseeing group, for the best interest of their followers and the constitution, to prevent their biggest fear of going back to apartheid era. But please leave running the country to people who can run it like a successful business and attend to the needs of the whole nation. This should also include muncipalities, the most capable people should be employed as civil servants, not a particular party with their own agenda.
Right. That party that can run the country is the DA aided by a Coalition of Seriously Democratic Parties.
Wishful thinking!
Would add one word to a sentence in the article:
“And this may explain why it can appear that Mantashe is able to still play such a big role in <> our electricity crisis.”
I really appreciate when journalists offer such well-rounded arguments. Makes you think rather than simply tow the line, and it’s a lot more interesting than just reading another list of faults.
I had such high hopes when Ramaphosa locked us down early on in the pandemic. I thought, finally, a strong leader who cares about our country! I was mistaken, but I remember that feeling of pride and hope well.
Maybe one day…
My feelings exactly!
The one thing positive about Ramaphosa is that he did not return to politics for the money. While we can debate the moral ethics of how he made it through BEE dealing, he has plenty already. Any fingerpointing over Phala Phala over signs of corruption fails to look at the quantum of his wealth.
That much hasn’t changed, he’s still rich and therefore he’s doing the tough President’s gig either because he either wants to protect his legacy that was overloked when NM chose Thabo to be his successor or because he genuinely feels he can make a difference (or a combination of both).
Imagine we had had president NDZ (or even a proxy JZ) running our covid response? While CR could have been a lot better, it could also have been a lot lot worse. We’d still have Gupta sanitiser contracts bleeding our already parched naartjie dry.
The honeymoon is well well over, it really is the time for CR to show leadership. Instead I feel he has the medium term view of the best ANC return at the 2024 elections top of mind. Whatever is needed for that will almost definitely not be for the general good of the country. There has never been a better time for the ANC to split.
Cyril has a jellyfish spine! I am convinced that if Cyril ditches some of the ANC policies that have driven SA over the abyss investment will flood in, many jobs will be created and there will be a new community cohesion that will bring hope and a truly better life for all. He just doesn’t have the balls to do it!
With great power comes great responsibility. Our President needs to show us that he can act on corruption and fire those responsible
Why are excuses constantly made for this man? It is entirely possible that he is just simply useless. When someone shows you who they are, believe them!
Absolutely spot on!
Totally agree. All the hullabaloo about this useless cadre, is embarrassing. The utmost show of uselessness is that this guy is the best the anc has to offer…..
and history will forever hold for some reason this was the man who “outsmarted” Meyer and Co at Codesa. That needs a rethink for sure because everything since then has been Failure To Launch on an epic scale. Nothing. The man holds no cards in his hands.
It’s clear to everyone that Ramaphosa’s primary concern is his disastrous party. All his decisions, rates as they are, are about keeping it happy, his faction of it anyway. He has been as bad for us as Zuma, if not worse. I can’t bear the sight of man anymore, never mind listening to his whining ‘communications’. We are where we are presently because he is unable to lead us as a nation.
CRs own words many years ago were that he would rather be remembered as a weak leader than as one who could not unite the party. If we all had better memories we would not be surprised now.
ANC structure is feudal! Real power vests at regional level such that central power is in name only. A party that has no real central authority can never govern effectively! It is a structure which aids & abetts self interest & is also the reason why corruption flourishes. Regiinal position & authority is dependant on the continual dispensing of patronage to those to whom you are beholden for your power. The ANC will never be able to renew or govern until such time as it’s own structures are changed which, in turn, won’t happen because it’s akin to asking Turkeys to vote for Christmas. Whereas then I agree with Stephen in his assessment of the predicament CR finds himself in the root cause is a party structure grounded in the Middle Ages & woefully out of step & unsuited to modern world challenges & demands!
Ramaphosa has not demonstrated even an iota of leadership during his tenure. Leadership is about making the hard calls and taking a direction regardless of whether it might not be the right one. An indecisive leader will fail – and he has. That he can even contemplate a decision not to throw active criminals into jail demonstrates the underlying issue in SA. Is crime justified or is it not? The ANC were active criminals during apartheid and had a mentality that the end justifies the means. Now they continue along that criminal path because it’s the only way they know. If Ramaphosa and the ANC do not take an active role in ridding SA of criminals, they are telling their constituents that crime is ok and this is evident in the rampant crime we see. There is no rule of law – and all the legislation they write is redundant and a waste of tax payers money. The end it appears, will be a wasteland where criminals reign supreme and SA no longer has any respect – and no investment.
Does SA still have any respect? Sad to say I don’t think so!
Cry me a river!
The problem is not that deep or complicated. His hands are not tied. He is the president of the country. He has been petrified by his own and his party’s corruption and total lack of ethics.
He has shown no respect for the people of this country or the position of president. He swore an oath that he would serve the people of this country, he knew exactly what was needed from him to do so and wilfully made all the wrong choices.
We were all hoping that he would do the right thing, but we tend to forget that he sat in parlement for a long time watching the ANC-Gupta saga roll out and never said a word.
Sorry, but every dog has it’s day.
“Already five MPs have defied the party whip in the Phala Phala vote, with no action being taken against them.”
And so he should not. The Zondo Commission Parliament Report Oversight said :
1292.3 – It is recommended that Parliament should consider whether it would be desirable to enact legislation which protects Members of Parliament from losing their party menmbership (and therefore their seats in Parliament) merely for exercising their oversight duties reasonably and in good faith. End Quote. There is no doubt it was reasonable for Cyril to stand to account.
I have not heard in the press where all Zondo’s recommendations have been debated and enacted but Cyril would be in a pickle if he went down this route.
He cleverly left it to his Assistant (Alexandra Mafia ) Mashatile to make the noises and not act out the Zondo reasonable suggestions.
Excellent article, but I’m not holding my breath that RamaDoLittle will show anything other than ineptitude and surprise.
The only way forward for tis country is for cANCer to loose power. Ramaphosisa belongs to a criminal syndicate called ANC and cannot act beyond it. Grootes is extremely naive, perhaps blinded by his love of Cyril. He has been his Advocate for too long.
He has been appointed by the ANC to be President. Like a CEO is appointed and answers to the board of directors. A capitalist model driven bu a socialist communist agenda in tje background. To my mind this is the biggest problem. If he acts outside the ANC mandate and support they will recall him. TOUGH SPOT! But yes he is weak and is being compromised by those who wish to enrich themselves on the back of the voters. Shameful!
It appears that CR is stuck in treacle !
Wishful thinking, this is never going to happen! CR will never change, despite having numerous non controversial opportunities to display decisive leadership he hasn’t done it. The strongmen of the ANC(unfortunately the corrupt faction) must have his Gonads in a giant vice coupled with a total absence of any sort of significant spinal column.
“, he has a moral obligation to lead,” no anc cadre deployee has any idea what the word ‘moral’ means, least of all their chief trough feeder.
I wish that South Africa’s current problems – and there are many – were simply the result of weak leadership.
To my mind, the rapidly decaying state of our union goes much deeper, and is more ominous.
That said, I am grateful (at least for now) for living in Cape Town, and not in Khartoum, Darfur, the DRC, Ukraine, or Yemen, to mention but a few disastrous states/cities.
It beats us why we continue to debate Ramaphosa’s glaring weaknesses. The reality is that will not get us on to the right track before the coming election. Let us concentrate on defining the best ways ahead from there, make those known far and wide, and do all we can to get that message across all colour lines to the absolute best of our ability. DA, now’s your chance!! You have had many already. Please don’t drop the ball again.
The inequality word should be used with care and should be qualified. The obvious question is what has the ANC done to close the gap? Perhaps it is me but whenever I come across “inequality” the perception created for me is a slant towards the sole blaming of apartheid.
Not for one moment do I not agree that inequality has been caused through apartheid and is greatly responsible for where we are. It should not be used as an escape clause at will. The fact is that here has not been enough political will and honesty to reverse the damage.
Many of the large corporations, National or International has a black and/or black an CEO and chairperson. . Can someone please share an analysis is of these companies and ask what have they done about equality in their company? The analysis should include token appointments eg. Dudu Meyni.
The land issue comes back to the same thing – what have those in power effectively done. Blame inequality. I must agree with Steven on the rest, the buck (pun intended) stops with CR.
Stephen, you are forgetting one thing: Most probably what weighs most heavily on Ramaphosa’s mind is what happens if he DOES resign. Who takes over then? Dlamini-Zuma? Or maybe things REALLY get out of hand and the ANC elects Duduzane or even Julius Malema as President! With the ANC as divided as it is, things can only become worse if Ramaphosa goes at the moment. After the 2024 election it will be quite a different story of course, but for now, if he is a leader with a sense of responsibility towards SA, he will definitely not resign – SA can’t afford it, because until 2024 at least, the ANC will still determine who is the President. And the problem with the ANC is that they don’t want a strong leader; they want a leader that can be manipulated. I actually think that Ramaphosa is getting away with trying to give direction in many things – but the ministers don’t always follow suit. And that is the problem; he needs to take more control over his cabinet and tell them to get their act together; the ANC will definitely not fire him because it is too risky for them. But he is not doing it – or let us hope that he will start to do it some time or another.
The right thing to do will be extremely unpopular with his colleagues, fellow ministers and cadre that they will vote him out of office and it will also be unpopular with the majority of the electorate that the ANC might not be the ruling party any more come 2024 or 2029.
The only way SA can be saved if the ANC loses an election.
“In a country defined by racialised inequality”
Stephen you are stuck in the past, the black middle class is now bigger than the white middle class so it is not racialised inequality.