Sudan is on the brink of a full-scale civil war following a weekend of ferocious fighting between the official Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) loyal to the warlord and number two in the junta, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti.

A report from the independent Sudanese Doctors Union, quoted by Al Jazeera, said there had been at least 56 civilian casualties on the first day of battles, which blazed through several major cities and were not restricted to the capital Khartoum.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Three aid workers killed as bloody power struggle erupts in Sudan

The situation, according to a number of sources, is spiralling out of control.

The SAF deployed fighter jets to bomb the RSF, but some eyewitnesses said Hemedti’s mobile army of Toyota Land Cruisers appeared to be better equipped than the regular army.

Kenyan commentator Rashid Abdi said: “The RSF is built for urban warfare. The Sudanese army less so. The spectacle of two conventional armies fighting with heavy weapons in cities is horrible to contemplate.”

Khartoum was without power and most telecommunications with the outside world were cut off.

Sudanese greet army soldiers, loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan on 16 April 2023. Battling fighters in Sudan said they had agreed to an hours-long humanitarian pause, including to evacuate wounded, on the second day of raging urban battles that killed more than 50 civilians including three UN staff and sparking international outcry. (Photo: AFP)

Global ramifications

The fighting is a power struggle that has major geopolitical and regional ramifications.

The international community appeared caught by surprise despite the fact that warning signals have been flashing for weeks as the RSF has resisted incorporation into the SAF.

Major powers, including the African Union, the UN Security Council, the United States, China, Russia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the European Union, called for an end to the fighting.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in Khartoum late last week as were envoys from the US, the UK and France who have been pushing for a democratic civilian government.

Egypt, whose leader Abdel Fattah El-Sisi is a close ally of al-Burhan, appeared especially concerned because a number of Egyptian troops were captured by the RSF in Marawi, which is north of Khartoum. There were reports of Egyptian planes bombing Marawi.

Sisi and Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan (MBZ), president of the United Arab Emirates, met in Cairo a day before the fighting broke out.

Khartoum’s military regime has been in a crisis since its violent birth on 25 October 2021 and even more so since the resignation of Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok on 2 January 2022. 

A handout satellite image made available by Maxar Technologies shows the burned and damaged General Command of the Sudanese Armed Forces headquarters building in Khartoum, Sudan, on 16 April 2023. Heavy gunfire and explosions were reported in Sudan’s capital Khartoum on 15 April between the army and a paramilitary group following days of tension centering on the country’s proposed transition to civilian rule. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Maxar Technologies Handout)

Both military leaders had been instrumental in the overthrow of the former ruler Omar al-Bashir. The remaining Islamists from the Bashir era are on the government side of the conflict. 

Hemedti, a former camel trader from the Darfur region, has made no secret of his ambition to be president of Sudan and has sought to recruit his allies, Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) of the United Arab Emirates and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in that enterprise.

Hemedti is also an ally of Russia’s Wagner mercenary army with whom he operates illegal gold mines in northern Kordofan. He has conducted military operations across the border into the Central African Republic with Wagner, but there is no indication yet of Wagner engagement in the current conflict in Sudan.

Hemedti’s mostly western forces have been increasingly viewed as a foreign occupation armed group. In Khartoum and in medium and large towns in the north, its presence has been poorly tolerated.

Even if he is pushed out of Khartoum, Hemedti could fold back on Darfur and develop a kind of national structure with Chad, where he has strong connections.

MBZ has backed Hemedti because of his strong opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood, and deployed RSF troops as mercenaries in Yemen and Libya.

Anrike Visser, a senior adviser on illicit finance policy at The Sentry said: “On 11 April a new civilian-led transitional government was to be announced in Sudan. Instead of prioritising the people and peace of Sudan, the RSF and SAF have picked up the guns once more. It is time to once and for all break the cycle of corruption and conflict caused by the warped incentive structures of the RSF and SAF.

“Avoiding accountability for past atrocities and baulking at civilian oversight of economic interests of the security forces are closely tied to yet another pointless war.” DM