ANALYSIS
In solving Eskom’s threat to SA’s future, time is not on Ramaphosa’s side — he must act now
While President Cyril Ramaphosa seems to be in a technically strong political position, there is a growing feeling he is still paralysed. Even though he may believe our energy crisis is a national disaster, he is yet to publish any real, concrete plan to improve the situation.
For the moment, there is no public explanation for the President’s apparent paralysis. The longer Ramaphosa goes without implementing a Cabinet reshuffle and any other energetic moves, or at least explaining the delay, the weaker he looks.
Last Thursday, Ramaphosa used the biggest possible stage to announce that he was declaring a National State of Disaster over the load shedding crisis. It was clearly designed to show that he and his government were giving this crisis their utmost attention and that it was their central priority.
And yet, six days since that announcement, no regulations have been published under the National State of Disaster.
In other words, despite this announcement, nothing has changed regarding Eskom, the grid or energy policy since the moment Ramaphosa started reading his State of the Nation Address.
Despite the words uttered in his speech, his government has done nothing.
It gets worse.
There is, as yet, no Minister of Electricity in the Presidency, despite Ramaphosa’s announcement of such a post last week.
It goes still deeper than that.
It is not yet clear how regulations under the National State of Disaster will actually be drafted.
Will they be drawn up by Cogta Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, who signs them into law?
Will it be Energy Minister Gwede Mantshe?
Or Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan?
Or will there be a committee, or another body with “Command” in its title, a word for which both the ANC and EFF harbour a special fondness?
If there is a committee, would it be just the latter two ministers or would Dlamini Zuma join them, as she would be the person who has to sign the regulations?
And then, there is the glaring absence of the appointed electricity minister. It would appear to make little sense to draw up and publish the regulations without this person. If they — as the Presidency says — will take ultimate responsibility for dealing with the problem, it surely makes little sense to introduce the disaster regulations before the appointment is made.
But if this is the case, could that mean that the regulations will only be drawn up after this person has been appointed? It would obviously take some time to assume that office and only then be involved in drafting the regulations.
Could it be that it will take a while before the first regulations are published? In other words, could Ramaphosa have announced a National State of Disaster over an issue which is so urgent that the first regulations will only emerge, say, a full month later?
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The political question of the year
This suggests that Ramaphosa’s plan has not been fully thought through.
Within all of this is perhaps the political question of the year so far: Why has Ramaphosa not carried out his Cabinet reshuffle, despite everyone knowing that it must happen?
It is not clear what the reason for the delay is. Even the ANC wants this reshuffle to happen. In the past, the most important person in the party for a President has been the secretary-general. Fikile Mbalula is one of those who wants the reshuffle to happen. And it cannot be that there is any opposition in Luthuli House to this move.
In fact, it may be, as the Sunday Times reported over the weekend, that some in the party are now growing anxious that he has still not reshuffled his Cabinet.
Unfortunately for Ramaphosa, the situation over the National State of Disaster may pose more problems. At least two organisations, the DA and Solidarity, are going to court to challenge the decision to make this declaration. It could even be that organisations representing constituencies almost across our entire political spectrum challenge this decision.
And it is not unlikely that they will win.
Even before an outcome to this case, embarrassing information could emerge. It has already been stated publicly that, in fact, Ramaphosa received legal advice against making this declaration. No doubt the organisations challenging his decision will request what lawyers call the “record of decision” — all of the documents considered before making it.
It is possible that the documentation will show that Ramaphosa then went against the legal advice.
All of this suggests that Ramaphosa has fallen into a classic political trap. Like many other political leaders in many countries, he has to be seen to take urgent action. And to respond to this need, he declared a National State of Disaster.
But this now requires real action in the real world, which he and his government may not be able to deliver. While the nature of our electricity crisis is such that dealing with it is complicated; having no plan, or no plan which can be implemented soon, will only make it that much worse.
Now Ramaphosa may be in a trap of his own making. Despite this, he does appear to have the political power to still take urgent action.
He could appoint a Minister of Electricity in the Presidency immediately, and give them a tight deadline to draft and publish the regulations. He could put the other ministers involved in this, Mantashe, Gordhan and Dlamini Zuma, on terms, telling the public that he has instructed them to act.
And he could then ensure that they stick to those deadlines.
Were he to do this, he could once more gain political momentum.
There is a reason why so many in the commentariat and in business have reacted so badly to his announcements, and why the rand has weakened so badly in response to his speech. It is because faith in Ramaphosa is melting quicker than the ice in fridges in load shedding Stage 6. And every new day with no National State of Disaster regulations, without a Minister of Electricity and other real-world moves keeps swelling the ranks of the apostates. DM
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He hasn’t quite got round to procrastination yet. It coming though.
spent force has no plan to do anything. Doesn’t need. 2 terms all he gets at the trough
The trouble with kicking the can down the road, Ramaposer’s super power, is that eventually you run out of road. Happily for him, once that happens there is plenty of sand into which to stick one’s head. This however, necessitates the extraction of his head from so far up some other delicate orifice that by the time he able to register ‘surprise’ (his other super power) it will be in the total darkness that is grid collapse. And the sounds approaching the leafy ‘urbs of Bryntirion will not be those of joyous rapture emanating from the crowds.
Ramaphosa, our ‘saviour’, is turning out to be even worse than Zuma. Most of his actions seems designed only to win time. To do what with? The so-called re-shuffle isn’t going to happen at all. The entire clutch of useless self-serving kooks will remain unshuffled to ‘pull together’ in this time of need. Didn’t he say so himself? At times, I almost feel sorry for the man, saddled with such a sordid collection of hapless ineptitude, but then I’m reminded that it’s all his own doing. Ol’ Two-gun Charlie bleeding out though all the holes shot into his feet…
Yet another Ramafailure …
between the ANC, EFF and some smaller ex “struggle” parties ) most of whom were too young to know about the struggle!) they have made Robert Mugabe look like an amateur when is comes to destroying a country!
anc driving as fast as possible into a dead-end with their supporters in the back seat and SA in the trailer behind it. The current government unable to see or hear the actual problems. The car, repeatedly driving over the grass that private industry grows, while shouting at the evil capitalists whilst extending their hands and begging for more grass to be grown. It’s rinse and repeat (without the rinsing).
Could it be that there is serious disagreement with Mantashe?
Would you like to be the Minister of Electricity in charge of failed Eskom??
The problem with the national state of disaster it is declared without very clear plans on what it must achieve. It is Mantashe who has given better explanation on what the government wants to achieve but it still leaves a lot of questions that are answered. The country wants the energy crisis addressed and transparency as to the problems creating the crisis and how the state of national disaster would help. The public concerns of corruption in procurement that were experienced in the last state of disaster and lack of oversight are matters for concern. The other concern is the role of the Eskom Board and Executive with a Minister of Electricity who will be apparently a project manager. The concerns are exacerbated by the opposition that opposes this as people who have oversight over these matters. One understands the DA concerns given that they first proposed it but they wanted the Disaster Management Act amended to remove the draconian measures and the oversight issues. The approach to the crisis also was the failure to acknowledge that the ANC is responsible for the crisis but now we need to resolve it to ensure sustainable energy availability for the country. The President was wrong to seek a buy in by requiring the opposition to accept a crisis that they are not responsible because that is dishonesty on his part.
Its not a dead end, its a cliff. Clearly marked for the last 10 kms with signs such as
Warning Cliff in 10kms
Warning Cliff in 9kms etc etc
Warning Driving off a cliff is deadly
Warning Take preemptive action now to avoid death
50 more signs like these etc etc
And yet the ANC driver and passengers are merrily speeding along, admiring the landscape, drinking champagne, singing and cheering, as they rapidly approach the cliff, having ignored the warning signs and not readjusting anything, such as their route, as they approach the dangerous cliff
Okay, so let them drive their car of the cliff, they deserve it, but the problem is that SA is in the trailer attached to their car
Stephen is correct in asking the unanswered question .. who will be appointed the new ‘super powered’ (apologies superman!) energy minister. However.. be sure of is that it will be cadre and not a kader who tended to call a spade a spade ! Also he did not have the right pigmentation to qualify for the now fashionable (post Madiba era) ‘nationalist’ agenda. Assuming CR does make an appointment of the new superhero post, and the legal challenges in court are upheld… and invalidate the appointment, is he (we) obliged to ‘pay out’ the incumbent the ‘peanuts’ (apologies to Dali… not to be conflated with darling) he would have been entitled to ? Maybe he should look at the Israeli option of making the judiciary secondary and not an equal branch of government ! That would fit in perfectly with the world wide tendency towards autocracy in several ‘democratic’ governments .. and an entrenched feature of of despotic regimes, which the current ANC is enchanted with. Cr’s close involvement with the drafting of our CONSTITUTIONAL democracy notwithstanding, probably did not think that it would come and bite him in the behind! Evidence of that .. his pathetic attempt at convincing Zondo at the hearings that cadre deployment was consistent with our constitution. The only solution to this malaise of corruption is what a former foot soldier of the ‘movement’ Ashley Forbes proposed, the removal of the ANC from power. However .. note that what replaces it, does not inspire confidence.
Finally Stephen Grootes, ( always the ANC apologist) like millions of other South Africans has woken up to the fact that Mr Ramaphoria is, was , and always was, NOT man for the job of leading South Africa out of the Zuma years. He is a Zuma child and therefore could never make the right decision about anything. Its just not in his DNA. We will now just have to accept that as long as there is an ANC government running our village, city, province, and country, that it is impossible to cure this patient; poor very sick, maybe even terminally sick, South Africa. It is high time that the South African electorate chooses country over a free t-shirt and food parcel.
Viva ANC ! Viva ANC !
Another frustrating thing is how “they” don’t seem willing to listen to and consider rational objective suggestions about getting out of the hole they dug. What will kill the ANC is not its incompetence, but this consensus thing. Leadership requires bold action and on that front CR is neither bold nor inclined to act.
The ANC is the main threat to SA’s future.
National State of Paralysis more like!!
Stephen, I think you are writing too fast. The President made his move, now he has had time to listen to the criticism and any counter-ideas that might have come forward (I have not heard any such however), and tomorrow he has to respond. Would that not be the time you get answers to all those questions? I would like very much to hear.