Ever since the Rugby World Cup (RWC) 2023 draw was made ludicrously prematurely in December 2020 – 33 months before the start of the tournament – it has been a waiting game to see which teams would be in form at the right time.

The outcome of the draw put the defending world champions, the Springboks, and Ireland in the same pool. It also included Scotland, then ranked seventh.

That set the narrative because, at the time, the Boks hadn’t played for over a year due to the pandemic, but retained their No 1 world ranking status while Ireland were fifth at the time. Ireland are now No 1, with the Boks fourth and Scotland fifth. Pool B also includes Tonga and Romania. It is the group of death.

The general consensus has been that the loser of that Pool B clash between the Boks and Ireland on 23 September at the Stade de France in Paris will meet the winner of Pool A in the quarterfinals. In case you’ve forgotten, Pool A includes hosts France and perennial pre-World Cup favourites New Zealand.

The theory is that between those four sides, two excellent teams will be knocked out before the semifinals, thanks to the vagaries of the draw.

But, not so fast, there is another potential wrinkle in the smooth path for South Africa and Ireland in the form of the dangerous Scotland.

The Scots are not exactly flying under the radar after another victory over England, but it’s not so much the result as their performance that has caught the eye.

The Boks proved at RWC 2019, after losing their opening match, that a team can afford one defeat and still progress to the knockout stages, but certainly not two.

However, it has been done before. France infamously lost to Tonga in Pool play at RWC 2011, as well as to hosts New Zealand, but squeaked into the knockouts after Tonga lost to Canada as well as the All Blacks.

France, as France do – despite the squad at war with coach Marc Lievremont – made it all the way to the final where they lost 8-7 to the All Blacks. On the balance of play, they should have won that final, although they were certainly not deserving world champions based on their overall body of work at the tournament.

The point of all this is that Scotland could scupper either the Boks’ or Ireland’s advance to the knockout stages.

Ireland looked the part of world No 1 as they dismantled Wales 34-10 in their Six Nations opener in Cardiff last weekend. They have a great pack, dangerous backs and the evergreen Johnny Sexton steering the team around the park from flyhalf.

Scotland, ranked seventh before the Six Nations started – but up two places after beating England 29-23 in a thriller at Twickenham to record their third successive win in a row at the home of rugby – have caught the eye.

Like France in 2011, Scotland are probably too inconsistent to win at least six out of seven games at RWC 2023 to take the Webb Ellis Cup, but they are definitely good enough to beat Ireland or the Springboks in a one-off group game.

Duhan van der Merwe of Scotland goes past Ollie Chessum to score his first and Scotland’s second try during the Six Nations Rugby match between England and Scotland at Twickenham Stadium on 4 February 2023 in London, England. (Photo: David Rogers / Getty Images)

Finn Russell of Scotland kicks the ball upfield during the Six Nations Rugby match between England and Scotland at Twickenham Stadium on 4 February 2023 in London, England. (Photo: David Rogers / Getty Images)

Visit Daily Maverick’s home page for more news, analysis and investigations

‘Lomu’ van der Merwe

South African-born Scotland wing, Duhan van der Merwe, scored two fine tries against England – the first was one of the best Twickenham had ever seen. He weaved and powered his way through England’s defences from well inside his own half: a try of such mesmerising quality that the late England and Lions wing David Duckham, who died shortly before the tournament started, would’ve been proud.

Van der Merwe will be one of several players (assuming Scotland will have a fully fit squad at the time) who could edge a tight game. He is big and powerful, but also fast and elusive. 

Scotland coach Gregor Townsend compared Van der Merwe’s long-range try to something only the late Jonah Lomu would have scored – and it wasn’t hyperbole.

“It was incredible, wasn’t it?” Townsend asked rhetorically after the victory over England.

“It reminded me of when, for everybody of a certain age, you played ‘Jonah Lomu rugby’ and suddenly one person could go quicker.

“That first try was amazing, and one that gets the Scotland supporters going crazy in the stands and silences everyone else because you don’t see tries like that very often.”

In tandem with the mercurial flyhalf Finn Russell, Scotland have some weapons that can unpick any tight defence.

Eighteen months ago, Van der Merwe was a relative unknown when the British & Irish Lions toured South Africa in that spiteful, Covid-plagued 2021 tour. Russell was injured early on and only played in the deciding third Test when he came on as an early replacement for Dan Biggar.

Van der Merwe was very good in Lions colours, but he’s become even better in the ensuing year and a half. Russell showed in the 60 minutes he played in the third Test that if he had been available for selection from the first Test, the outcome of the Lions series might have been different.

His hour in the third Test caused the Bok defence more problems than the previous 200-odd minutes during the first two encounters. He will be another potential problem when the sides meet in Marseille later this year.

He sparked the attack for Van der Merwe’s match-winning try against England late in the game, and is a player of rare vision. Of course, he can go off-script at times, but his unpredictability – allied to his obvious playmaking skills – make him very dangerous. And now that Scotland have a decent pack, Russell is a bigger threat.

Finn Russell juggles rugby balls during the Scotland captain’s run at Twickenham Stadium on 3 February 2023 in London, England. (Photo: David Rogers / Getty Images)

Fast start

For the Boks and their management, who are watching the Six Nations with keen interest, it’s fortunate their opening match is against Scotland. There is no time to ease into the tournament. It will be a knockout game because, lose that, and the pressure mounts. 

Which is why the Boks’ schedule, which looks tough considering it’s a World Cup year, is actually the result of some smart planning by coach Jacques Nienaber and director of rugby Rassie Erasmus.

Jacques Nienaber, the South Africa head coach, faces the media during the South Africa Springboks media session held at The Lensbury on 22 November 2022 in Teddington, England. (Photo: David Rogers / Getty Images)

Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus during the South Africa men’s national rugby media conference at Grand Hotel des Sablettes Plage on 11 November, 2022 in Toulon, France. (Photo: Clement Mahoudeau / Gallo Images)

They have back-to-back warm-up matches against Wales and the All Blacks in Cardiff and London, with a two-week break before the Scotland meeting on 10 September.

It means the Boks will be away from home for more than 10 weeks if they progress all the way to the final of RWC 2023. It’s a recipe that they used in 2019 when they were the first team to arrive in Japan, playing against the Brave Blossoms in a pre-World Cup Test before going on to win the entire tournament.

If the Boks can come out of the group, they still face some huge obstacles to defend their title. Scotland have sent a reminder, though, that they can’t think much further ahead than the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille. DM