ANALYSIS
Head and shoulders above — Cape Town’s success could become a key issue in 2024 elections
The apparent contrast between the level of services in Cape Town and the collapse of services in other metros could become a big political issue ahead of next year’s polls.
With all of the recent movements at the local government level and the proximity of next year’s national and provincial elections, certain parties may now want to start campaigning on their track records in councils. This issue is likely to resonate strongly with voters — it is entirely rational to assess a party’s suitability for national office based on its record in local government.
At the same time, the situation in many councils is now so bad that many voters will feel completely disillusioned with almost all of our parties. Except for the situation in the Western Cape and in particular, the City of Cape Town.
The apparent contrast between the level of services there and the collapse of services in other metros could become a major political issue ahead of next year’s polls.
Last week, the City of Joburg learnt that it had a new mayor. No one appears to expect Thapelo Amad to remain in power for long; even the ANC has referred to him as a “transitional mayor”.
In eThekwini, voting for a deputy mayor had to be postponed because the ANC and the EFF were not ready to implement a deal.
Tshwane has admitted it cannot pay Eskom what it owes and cannot recover enough revenue to pay the utility on an ongoing basis.
In Ekurhuleni, it appears that the EFF and the ANC may soon force a new mayor in through a no-confidence vote.
In Nelson Mandela Bay, there are still massive problems with water and fears that taps in a large part of Gqeberha could soon run dry.
And in Mangaung, residents complain their city is close to collapse because of infighting among members of the governing ANC, after the party recalled its mayor earlier this month.
Bucking the trend
Meanwhile, in press release after press release, the City of Cape Town is apparently making progress.
Solar panels installed on the roof of a retirement village in Cape Town. (Photo: Guillem Sartorio / Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Last week it announced it would be buying electricity from residents with rooftop solar installations, to add to its current mechanisms that stave off two stages of load shedding.
Residents in middle-class areas talk about how well their city works — there are anecdotes about power lines being repaired within hours, and potholes are a foreign concept.
Some mention huge construction projects, a sign that investors believe the city has a strong future. There are also some indications that it is getting a bigger share of foreign direct investment than other areas. As some companies are leaving Durban, money is flowing to Cape Town.
To listen to them is to hear a story of a city with infrastructure that works, an African city which is, in fact, world-class.
However, assessing the quality of life for a particular person or family in a particular area can be perilous.
The commentariat in South Africa is usually focused on the middle-class life experience because that is the water in which it swims. And given our racialised inequality, it may be harder to conduct an objective assessment than in other societies. Simply put, in South Africa, your individual circumstances may matter much more than where you live.
The more important question may be whether life for people in Khayelitsha is better than it is for people in Diepsloot. And even here, comparisons are very difficult.
Rolling blackouts, life expectancy and crime
For example, it is true that people in all areas of Cape Town suffer less load shedding than in other cities, and are probably likely to experience it even less in the future, if its plans to procure power from independent power producers are successful. It should be mentioned that a part of its success here is simply down to luck, as the DA cannot claim responsibility for the construction of the Steenbras hydro pump station in the 1970s.
This is an obvious difference which can be objectively assessed.
But there are also other data which can be used. For example, Statistics South Africa has confirmed that life expectancy in the Western Cape is higher than it is in other provinces. Unfortunately, the murder rate in the Western Cape is higher than in almost all other provinces too (it ties with the Eastern Cape in this regard).
But that again depends on where in Cape Town you live. Khayelitsha’s police station has a high number of murders reported every year, Claremont’s does not.
If it is true that Cape Town is doing better on important metrics than other councils, it is likely that this will continue for some time.
There will be much to ask about why it is that Cape Town appears to be making progress.
Those in its middle classes may point to its administration and the fact that it’s been run by the DA for 16 years. They may also suggest that the DA simply governs more effectively than the ANC or any other parties.
Law enforcement officials clash with residents over land invasions in Mfuleni, Cape Town on 17 July 2020. (Photo: Gallo Images / Brenton Geach)
Those in other parts of the city may disagree; they may point to the evictions policy followed by the city and suggest it is simply effective in keeping poor people away from the suburbs.
But the fact that there has been consistency and stability in the city must matter. If you are confident of governing in an area for a decade, you can make plans that will take 10 years to complete. The official who drew up a 10-year plan for a project would know they are likely to be there when it is finished.
And for the moment, there is no serious opposition to the DA there — it won more than 58% of the vote in the 2021 local elections. The next biggest party was the ANC with just under 19%.
Success leads to success
Over time, this will start to have an important effect: success leads to success, so if your infrastructure works, you will get more investment, and more investment leads to better performance overall, which yields yet more investment.
This can create momentum, and allow a city to “pull ahead” of other areas in a troubled country.
Meanwhile, other metros appear destined for a future of mismanagement, corruption and decay.
The lack of investment in infrastructure over many years is now having an impact on all other metros — one can feel vital infrastructure in our big metros has reached a tipping point and is on the verge of collapse.
There is also likely to be more instability in those metros over the next few years. In the short term, several may be about to change mayors again. But in the longer term, it is likely that voters will not give any single party a clear majority.
This could lead to a long period of political instability and, perhaps, make the already sharp difference between Cape Town and everyone else even more obvious.
The question still remains unanswered on whether the DA will be able to translate this apparent governance success in Cape Town into votes in other parts of the country.
Certainly, it will make claim after claim, and the city’s (and the DA’s) formidable communication machinery will be heavily involved.
But the DA’s opponents will try to focus on what they will say is the lived experience of poorer people in the city; they will claim that the administration focuses only on richer areas. They may try to move the conversation away from governance to issues around identity.
Also, it may be difficult to convince people in Mahikeng that Cape Town is a working example of how things will turn out if the ANC is kicked out. With all its obvious governance success, the DA may find it difficult to get its message to penetrate across the country.
And yet, what is clear is that the kitchen table issues around local government are receiving much more attention than in the past. Those who are seen fixing these problems may find the ANC dam finally breaking in 2024. It will require transforming this track record into a potent and well-understood political message and ensuring that this message is not successfully attacked by their opponents. Never an easy task in a country as racialised, unequal and divided as South Africa is today. DM
Stephen, let me help you turn anecdotal evidence into actual evidence. I recently reported a blocked sewerage drain in my road on my way to a meeting. One can do that on the City’s website. It was fixed before I got home. And followed up a day later with a phone call to confirm my complaint had been resolved. Simple things like this work in Cape Town. I also requested trees on my verge to be pruned. I requested this through my City Councillor who made it happen in less than 24 hours and he followed it up also with an email.
It’s not rocket science though. Processes in place, good management and people pay their rates so there is money.
One of the major issues impacting on delivery in the poor areas is crime. Service workers from medics to electricians are often afraid to into areas dominated by gangs. The ANC run police are part of the problem with senior police supplying guns to gangs and being infiltrated right to the top by criminals. Just yesterday I encountered a woman who was attacked by criminals in a car who stole her bike. Local private security stopped the car and arrested 2 people. An hour later we were still waiting for SAPS to arrive because Wynberg were arguing with Diep River about whose area it was! Useless. Incompetent. Run by the ANC.
The ONLY difference is where the ANC governs, one finds incompetence, arrogance and corruption. With zero interest in service delivery. It is time voters make the call. The evidence is all there to see.
Well said.
And while I am on it Stephen, let’s talk about the multiplier effect. Because the team who pruned my trees was a small operator with a chain saw and a bakkie, contracted by the City. Employing about 6 people. Who, if they lived outside the Western Cape would be standing on the side of the road with a sign. And because the trees are so well maintained, the value of my property goes up Which causes me to pay more rates. And that team have money to feed their families and build their own futures. And also pay rates and taxes. And all this happens just because the simple things are done well.
Let’s assume for a moment the scenario of the ANC losing in 2024. Would that make a difference? How would the new party be able to reverse the mismanagement and corruption of the past 20 years? For example, the DA has been running the City of Tshwane since 2016. The latest audit finding against the City of Tshwane confirms large scale mismanagement leading to it basically being insolvent. Yes, while municipal services in Cape Town is much better, the DA has so far been unable to repeat anywhere else.
Let me copy and paste my reply to a near identical and incorrect comment you made on a previous thread:
“The DA has been running the City of Tshwane since 2016.” This statement is simply incorrect. They are in an extremely volatile coalition with hostile partners that have been running interference at every opportunity. There have been serious changes in power when Tshwane was put under administration (unlawfully as the courts found I should add), and the coffers were looted in that time by the ANC.
Why only Cape Town? Simple because it’s the only place they have enough power and time to actually implement and maintain infrastructure to make a difference.
The DA may not be perfect, but let’s be honest about their problems.
HZ has written a piece about “entrenched corruption” on a municipal level and how difficult it is to get rid of the rotten apples. The DA can’t just go in and fire the entire municipal workforce. Turnarounds may take decades. That said, the DA should seriously look at getting stronger leadership in the City of Tshwane.
Peter coalitions will never work due to corruption its all about self gratification its not about the people its all about self preservation. I applaud Pappas i applaud the DA in every part of SA who SERVE the people and every other party that do what is right by its citizens. Thank you Richard for your part in this article. God bless our beautiful country.
This is true, the DA has a great track record and I believe this is recognised by the majority of the populace. HOWEVER, in a recent conversation with some colleagues, when asked who they would vote for they replied that for local government, DA, for national, ANC… Their reasoning was that the DA is great at running a municipality, but the ANC is the party of struggle and they fought for our freedom so we have to vote for them… The DA has a huge mountain to climb to overcome this historic loyalty..
Maybe Cape Town is better run because the ANC hasn’t stolen everything it could there, and corruption incidents are just a fraction of ANC led municipalities?
Sure it was luck that Steenbras is in CPT, but is it also luck that it has been maintained properly, that it is being utilized properly etc? Considering the sheer ineptitude in municipalities run by the ANC this is highly doubtful.
The issues faced in informal settlements are pretty much country wide, it just seems that the outrage about them is significantly higher in Cape Town. It’s not like the Red Ants don’t operate in Joburg and everyone in informal settlements in Joburg has a better lifestyle, never gets evicted or faces raging fires.
You cannot blame the levels of poverty on the DA, and the new major has actually been making great strides for low cost housing (lack of which is by now a global problem)
Murder rates are again a government problem (not provincial), along with just about all other services and issues that the ANC is responsible for. If they would work better anywhere else you may have an argument, but they don’t, often they are even worse. The lack of support by the national police is nothing new and has been brought up and ignored by the ANC for years.
The DA has quite a few issues, but why some commentators have such a hard time to be honest about what they do right, or to utter any approval for them, is beyond me. Criticism where it is due, but let’s be honest about their problems!
Further up in comments section Richard Bryant talks about (positive) multiplier effect of good local governance. Now, in the context of poverty, consider the negative multiplier effect. Sure, it is true that there are local housing, poverty and crime issues in the poorer areas of Cape Town. But some of that is due to Cape Town’s success. Because life is better in Cape Town, because services are delivered, because unemployment is lower, because state education is better, because state health services are better than anywhere else in the country, huge numbers of people move to Cape Town to improve their lives. Without those economic migrants consider how even better life would have been in Cape Town for those in poorer areas. Consider a specific comparison; Western and Eastern Cape. Life in the Eastern Cape is presently wretched for poor people. No jobs, pathetic local and state services. And life in the Western Cape is much much better. Thats a subjective statement, but the proof of that statement can be seen in the statistics; the vast number of people that have migrated from Eastern Cape; some estimates are 500 000 over last 5 years, and much more over last 20 years. Now backwards extrapolate what the comparative lives of poor people would be like in the Western Cape and Eastern Cape if those numbers had not migrated.
Absolutely. So why are good journalists that normally write great indepth balanced articles, unable to make these simple deductions and give credit where it is due?
Political analysts don’t seem to know about the migration. Or if they do, it is never commented on and the effect it has on the infrastructure of the Western Cape
Well said Karl completely agree with you
“The apparent contrast between the level of services in Cape Town and the collapse of services in other metros could become a big political issue ahead of next year’s polls.”
Not could, WILL if SA has the political maturity to finally throw out ANC criminals.
And if that doesnt happen or does not happen to the degree where the ANC has no national power and very little power in provinces, then market forces will take over, because SA sure as hell cannot wait another five years.
Stephen has this time written a balanced report – cannot understand his pro-ANC stance on SABC. Unfortunately, the voters in the rest of the country, especially KZN vote with their hearts based on fake news, and not with their brains which they seem to keep in a strange place.
The EFF will claim that the councils they run are models of transformation.
Oh wait. The EFF does not run anything, anywhere…
Every day I thank the old gods and the new that I live under a DA administration in the Western Cape. We are busy building a non-racial and functional society, with business friendly policies, responsive government and the rule of law here. Come and join us or invest here if you share those values. Or do your best to get the DA in power wherever you live. It is our best chance of avoiding total state failure.
“the DA cannot claim responsibility for the construction of the Steenbras hydro pump station in the 1970s.” In an effort to remain objective, they can claim some credit in not allowing it to fall into disrepair. Credit can’t be claimed by anyone for the efficient power generation we had in 2000 but blame can be laid at the door of the caretakers who failed in their duty.
Felt like Stephen tried not to say good things about the City of Cape Town, but found it hard not to.
There is always a temptation to rubbish claims about Cape Town and how it is run. However, as a person from Johannesburg who regularly visits Cape Town, one is unable to refute the reality you experience in Cape Town. The first thing that strikes one is that Cape Town is not a slum city like all the cities that the ANC has turned into slums. The second issue is parking in town and the safety of your car and you cannot do that in Johannesburg without finding mirrors and lights missing. The third issue, I noticed, walking and jogging from the Westin to Bo Kaap, you find that residents have their cars parked outside and one wondered what would happen if it was Johannesburg. Walking in the City centre is safe and here in Johannesburg, you need to be walking literally with a knife in town to protect yourself otherwise being robbed in Smal Street from Park Station, to Carlton Centre, criminals virtually lift you up and empty your pockets whilst you are in the air. Cape Town has kept itself to be a tourist destination with the safety that it has enforced in its city centre. You cannot say the same thing about other cities that the ANC turned into slums and criminal havens. You do not even see the traffic cops that have been recruited in thousands in the crime spots in Johannesburg except road blocks for bribery. You do not see these many traffic cops directing traffic during peak hours when there is load shedding. They must be called revenue officers.
One correction to your article where you state – it is true that people in all areas of Cape Town suffer less load shedding than in other cities, – that is not true actually, large areas are still Eskom supplied and do not get protected from load shedding when the rest of CT does e.g. teh whole of Khayelitsha, Milnerton, Table View etc
Let’s not forget the No 1 most financially stable municipality in the whole of South Africa – Midvaal in Gauteng- ringfenced by ANC municipalities desperate to bring them down. When you’ve lived in a municipality run by the DA why on earth would you want anything else? Queries and complaints are attended to – residents are listened to.