ANALYSIS
In 2023, Ramaphosa’s ANC will have to lead, or lose the people of South Africa
This year appears to be the last chance for the ANC to attempt to do anything real. Its leaders will have to grasp the stinging nettle of difficult moves, most of which will alienate parts of its vast constituency.
While the ANC’s revamped leadership now appears to finally have a clear mandate to get down to work, the clock is ticking to next year’s national and provincial elections — in a country that is going through multiple emergencies, where people are signalling strong and deep dissatisfaction with the ruling party’s almost three-decade-long custodianship of the country.
This is a daunting set of challenges for any party, even one whose leadership may finally feel there’s more manoeuvring space. Should President Cyril Ramaphosa’s new majority actually use this mandate, it could institute interventions whose time is long overdue.
This year appears to be the last chance for the ANC to attempt to do anything real. Its leaders will have to grasp the stinging nettle of difficult moves, most of which will alienate parts of its very broad constituency.
With the dust finally settling on the ANC’s 55th national conference, following its final conclusion on Friday morning, there is now ample evidence that Ramaphosa has a stronger mandate to actually govern.
The National Executive Committee (NEC) appears to be less divided than before, and those who are seen as obviously supporting what used to be called the “RET faction” are fewer in number. In the top seven national officials, Ramaphosa also appears to, at least for now, have a stronger hand. (By Daily Maverick’s calculations, 57 of the 80 members of the NEC are now in his camp.)
Crucial to this is the position of secretary-general, occupied now by the ever-energetic Fikile Mbalula — the man who has been vocal about his support for Ramaphosa for years now.
Also, the margin of the President’s victory over Zweli Mkhize was much more comfortable than his victory five years ago (579 vs 179), when he was just able to prevail against Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma.
There is also the behaviour of those who supported Mkhize that appears to support the picture of Ramaphosa’s strength. While the KwaZulu-Natal ANC delegates were bullish about Mkhize’s prospects all the way to the results announcement, they were also uncharacteristically quick to accept defeat — a critically important move to endorse Ramaphosa’s re-election.
This may mean that he does not face the kind of sniping that he suffered from the very start of his first term as leader.
It could also explain Ramaphosa’s confidence during his January 8th address on Sunday that the “renewal of the ANC is unstoppable”.
And of course, there is the decision by the conference late on Thursday night to continue to implement the “step-aside” resolution, providing crucial continuity to probably the most important NEC decision of Ramaphosa’s first term.
Tough questions await
But there are now several tough questions that need to be answered in the coming days and months.
The important one surely is whether Ramaphosa will — and if so, how — use this newly strengthened mandate.
The first clue to this question is likely to be a Cabinet reshuffle.
Ramaphosa does not really face a choice in doing something, as Mbalula will be required at Luthuli House full-time and will not be returning as minister of transport. The new deputy ANC leader, Paul Mashatile, has already hinted he would like to go into government, presumably to replace David Mabuza as deputy president.
There is likely to be pressure from Ramaphosa’s supporters, and perhaps broader parts of the ANC, to act against Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, who made a point of spending the entire 2022 defying her President.
Even more pressing will be the question of what to do with Cogta Minister Dlamini Zuma. She defied not only Ramaphosa, but also the ANC by publicly voting against the party line in Parliament over the Phala Phala inquiry.
If Ramaphosa does not act against her, it could well inspire others to defy, and continue to defy, his authority in the future. One thing is certain: should he not act, many will understand that he still does not have what it takes to properly lead the party.
Another complicated situation exists in the office of the secretary-general. Both Mbalula and his first deputy, Nomvula Mokonyane, are strong personalities, while Maropene Ramokgopa as second deputy is relatively new to top leadership in the party.
How these three people work together could be crucial to the party’s future.
While Mokonyane and Mbalula have long track records in the ANC and have led election campaigns in the past, they also have difficult histories in government which will inevitably raise questions about their competence.
If this office fails, the ANC as a movement could be in real trouble.
That said, on balance, it seems likely that the secretary-general’s office is on stronger ground than it was before the conference, if only because there will actually be people in the office, after Ace Magashule was suspended for most of his term and Jessie Duarte died.
Huge organisational problems
However, there are other huge organisational problems to be dealt with.
The ANC’s national conference was adjourned last year in an unprecedented fashion. The reasons given were the delays in registering delegates, the weather, and that some delegates had already left.
Then, during the second part of the conference last week, there were not enough delegates present to form a quorum to allow a vote to change the ANC’s constitution.
This does not appear to make sense. Just five years before, in 2017, the conference ended early in the morning of the day after it was scheduled to close, because of the long debates around the issue of expropriation without compensation.
Why would delegates stay late into the morning hours then, but leave early now? Even people selected by branches to be their voice in crucial policy discussions didn’t feel the need to remain.
This must be another sign of the ANC’s problems at branch level.
Then there are the problems that both Ramaphosa and the ANC will face this year, which could be defined by rolling blackouts.
At the ANC’s Conference Declaration last week, delegates said:
“The ANC-led government must move decisively to implement conference resolutions to end load shedding and stabilise electricity supply. Priority must be given to speeding up the resolution of the energy crisis, in particular undertaking critical maintenance at Eskom so we return existing generation capacity to reliable service.”
On Sunday, Ramaphosa said it was important to stop the sabotage at Eskom, and that the ANC would lead a campaign against illegal connections.
But this does not necessarily provide any direction, or bring the nation any closer to a solution.
During the conference, delegates heard from several experts in the field.
One was Professor Sampson Mamphweli, who has generally argued in favour of renewables.
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Another was Jacob Maroga. He tried and failed to remain as Eskom CEO in 2009 after it was reported he had promised to resign. While he does not appear to be dogmatic on the issue, some of his recent tweets may be interpreted to suggest support for some fossil fuels.
The declaration also says:
“We must transform and grow the economy so that it creates jobs and empowers Africans in particular and blacks in general, particularly the youth, women and people who live in townships and rural areas. We must introduce new measures to cut red tape and ensure small enterprises, co-operatives and informal businesses, particularly those owned by women and young people, have effective means of raising finances, and accessing markets.”
But this has been said many times before. Ramaphosa made creating jobs one of the focal points of its inauguration address in 2019. Ten years before that, in 2009, the ANC said that its election campaign was focused entirely on this issue.
In 2011, the then president, Jacob Zuma, again made the same promise.
It is likely to be harder to grow an economy now than at any time over the past 10 years (although this could be a contested claim, as the reopening of China and any end to the war in Ukraine could have a huge impact on the global economy and increase demand for our mineral resources). This means that there could be difficult trade-offs to come. And that the ANC will have to actually make decisions.
But the party has never shown itself able to make those decisions. Instead, it kicked the can further into the future, which has not yet arrived.
That said, circumstances have changed. The party has never been under this kind of electoral pressure. The President has never been stronger within the ANC (despite, amazingly, the Phala Phala scandal).
The question remaining is whether Ramaphosa and those around him are actually, finally, decisively prepared to act. DM
Squirrel does not “get” leadership. What has he actually achieved in his term to date? On every metric SA is considerably worse off.
Not on every metric. I’m not defending Cyril. But let’s not start imagining we were better off with Zuma and his Gupta handlers in charge.
I don’t know what you mean. Should we be grateful for that? Or should we continue the fight against the same wolves in different sheep’s clothing. Nothing’s changed. I’ll keep fighting until those overweight rabid wolves are out of power and SA can start to grow and prosper.
What’s the opposite of anticipation? Whatever it’s called, I’m breathless with it right now.
What, I ask, does the phrase ‘Africans in particular and blacks in general’ mean? What are they signalling, or have the signals been vandalised and the cables stolen?
What at least seems to be clear is that the ANC has regressed to accepting it is interested only in black people. Non-racial, multi-racial, rainbow and all those other inconvenient markers of a truly representative party have been firmly jettisoned.
The Conference confirmed that the ANC are incapable of leading, and they are not going to be able to save themselves at the next election. They have completely failed to address any of the crises facing the country, and will certainly not be able to achieve anything significant before the elections. Things are just going to continue to decline as they have been.
“Ramaphosa has a stronger mandate to actually govern”, but has he got the skills, competence and most importantly the backbone. The greatest danger SA faces is corruption and sliding into a gangster state. Two prominent people got attacked because of their stand against corruption and the President has yet to comment. Has he got too many gangsters in his own immediate environment?
Good question, Hermann
YES!
“We must transform and grow the economy so that it creates jobs and empowers… the youth, women and people who live in townships and rural areas…. cut red tape and ensure small enterprises, co-operatives and informal businesses, have effective means of raising finances, and accessing markets.”
Drive through rural areas and ask yourself if you would invest in any kind of agricultural or manufacturing or tourism enterprise, President Ramaphosa. I drive regularly through the rural provinces of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North-West, Free State and Eastern Cape and most of the small towns are absolutely disgusting. Functional, well maintained roads, water and electricity are the stuff of folklore, rubbish piles up in the high streets (and everywhere else), foreign-owned businesses selling imported, unregistered and possibly toxic goods have replaced everything else and the chances of attracting decent investment are slim to nothing. Just at look the closure of Clover’s plant in Lichtenburg because of the state of municipal infrastructure. Want to create jobs and companies in townships and rural areas? Create the enabling environment, which starts with functional infrastructure and burning all the red tape small businesses are saddled with.
As long as “Old King Coal” is there, I, personally cannot see anything moving forward at Eskom. Methinks some persons have got too much invested in coal mining and really don’t want clean renewable energy. Such a shame in a country that has more sunlight than most and quite a lot of wind as well.
Nothing will change. This is just more rhetoric. Why would it be followed by action if this has not happened in more than two decades?
This image says it all… the ANC leadership releasing some doves into the sky in the desperate hope things will change. Pathetic.
It is only when the ANC is no longer running the country we will have any chance of things being done.
Right now the most critical issue is Eskom and repairing the power stations. Not much maintenance has been done for the last twenty years and it may be too late to avoid a total collapse of the grid. Without power we cannot have business. Without business there is no tax, no grants, no education, no health care.
The ANC has allowed corruption to happen at every single level of government to the point it is almost impossible for them to turn it around. Only when there is nothing left to steal will voters consider another party.
In the meantime we will do what we always do. Run things ourselves with private security, private health care and private education for the few who can afford it.
I had a lot of hope and confidence when CR took over the reins in 2019 (ABZ) anyone but Zuma, but he has systematically disappointed and obliterated any hope of real reform. Excellent at making promises, but nothing that is translated into real progress in EVERY single department run by the ANC. I would be so very happy to be proved wrong. We desperately need the economy to improve and as a businessman, he must surely know this is the only saving grace for South Africa.
cr is no business man! He is an anc deployee who has benefited from racist BEE and AA laws.
The margin of win of a party leader in his own party has nothing to with the ability and competence to deliver. The UK has these with almost regularity, and worse, it is the parliamentary caucus that initiates such contests. A UK leader would be in very serious trouble and lynched if the drivel of margin of win within the party would be used as an excuse for incompetence and failure. Nowhere except in this country you get to hear analysts and journalists peddling such drivel. The ANC will learn in 2024 that its fortunes lie its failure to address the electricity emergency, the impact of Covid handling and electricity, the cost of living and failure to address PRASA as the cheapest public transport. The issues will not be based on the internal shenanigans of the ANC. The issues have not been resolved and will not be resolved by statements and resolutions but by people seeing and feeling the actual results in terms of lights in their homes, safety and security, security of their jobs, employment. It will not be how many votes Cyril won at the ANC Conference. That drivel has not washed anywhere and it is not about to wash in this country. It is either the ANC is up to the task or not.
100%. I’m hoping “Not”.
The dove seems to have only one wing. They probably stole the other one.
#GwedeMantasheMustGo
A good analysis although Stephen has failed to mention something of fundamental importance. Ramaphosa has made MANY promises since becoming deputy president in 2014 but few (if any) have been kept. Don’t be fooled that this time will be any different..
For once, I’m swimming against this tide of pessimism. Everything raised in these responses is true and valid, but for some inexplicable reason, I feel a glimmer of hope. A glimmer, mind, not an actual spark and certainly not a flare. For all his shortcomings, I still believe CR is a fundamentally honest person with the good of the country at heart. His term so far must have been very trying, with hostile allies and virulent opponents trying everything to undermine him ( I firmly believe Phala Phala was a set-up by Fraser, to be used as ammo when all else failed), but now, for the first time, he gets to choose his team. The cabinet reshuffle will be the key signal; if people like the loathsome Bathabile somehow squirm back into high office, I’ll admit I was wrong, but if he chooses people of merit from the admittedly thin gene-pool of cadres at his disposal, I have some hope of meaningful reform. I’m not suggesting that the ANC has suddenly grown a conscience, but their strategists have probably realised that they’re doomed if they don’t show some kind of reform progress.
Lovely balanced post. From your keyboard to Cyril’s ears and strategy plan; I would love to see some positive action, and tangible evidence of progress, from the prez.
Not advising anyone to hold their breath……
This sounds racist. – “creates jobs and empowers Africans in particular and blacks in general”. Where did equality go?