North West

Ditsobotla: ANC 40% (52%) EFF 27% (15%) DA 15% (14%) F4SD 5% (4%) PA 4% (1%) SDM 3% FF+2% (4%) AHC 1%

The setting: Ditsobotla municipality is in the Ngaka Modiri Molema district in North West. Its principal town is Lichtenburg. The municipality also includes Coligny, the hometown of champion high jumper Hestrie Storbeck Cloete. Ngaka Modiri Molema also includes provincial capital Mahikeng, Zeerust and Delareyville. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC retained its outright majority, winning 52% of the vote. The municipality lost one seat as it went from a 40-seat to a 39-seat chamber. The ANC went from 24 seats to 21, with the DA and EFF winning six each. The EFF retained the six seats they won, while the DA lost a seat. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) and Forum 4 Service Delivery (F4SD) both increased their representation on the council, winning an additional seat to finish on two each. The African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) retained their single seat, while the African Independent Congress (AIC) won representation to the council with a single seat.

The ANC won 17 of the 20 wards and the DA the remaining three. 

The by-elections: The member of the executive committee (MEC) for local government dissolved the council. There was tremendous ANC infighting, with municipal workers having to report to two mayors and two speakers, both from the same party. There were also two municipal managers. This paralysed service delivery. The MEC was left with no choice but to bring the term of council to an end and ask the voters of Ditsobotla to return to the polls. 

Of the 21 councillors elected for the ANC in 2021, only three appeared on the candidate list for this election. Aaron Motloung ran for the ANC in Ward 17, which he won just over a year ago. Ward 12 councillor Phanuel Phokompe defected to the F4SD and ran in his old seat (Ward 12) and was also the candidate for Ward 14. PR councillor Itumeleng Lethoko defected to the Patriotic Alliance (PA). She was number one on the PA’s PR list.

The F4SD also attracted three independent candidates who ran in 2021. All three made an impact on the wards they contested in, but did not come close to toppling the ANC. A local party to emerge was the Save Ditsobotla Movement (SDM). SDM has not attracted any of the former ANC councillors. It attracted one independent candidate who ran for office in the local government elections. There are also two independent candidates, a far lower number compared with 2021. The number of independent candidates taking votes off the ANC was one of the reasons the party’s support dipped to 52%. ActionSA did not contest these by-elections. 

Seat allocation and results

The ANC lost five seats with the EFF gaining four of them. The PA was the fifth-biggest party and bagged two seats. The Save Ditsobotla Movement and African Heart Congress replaced the ACDP and the AIC in the council. 

ANC 16 (21) EFF 10 (6) DA 6 (6) F4SD 2 (2) PA 2 FF+ 1 (2) SDM 1 African Heart Congress 1 ACDP 0 (1) AIC 0 (1). Total: 39-20 seats are needed for a majority. 

The EFF won two ward seats from the ANC. This included the latter’s rural stronghold in Ward 19 (Springbokpan Welverdiend), a farming area west of Lichtenburg, where the EFF went from 15% to 39% while the ANC fell from 66% to 36%. The PA also hurt the ANC here as it won 16% of the vote. The EFF also took Ward 14 (Bodibe Ditlhwaneng) from the ANC with the EFF garnering 46% of the vote, up from 27%, and the ANC falling from 52% to 31%. The ward is above Itsoseng, northwest of Lichtenburg. 

The ANC won 15 of the 17 seats it won in 2021. It had reduced majorities in the overwhelming number of wards it won in 2021. The DA retained the three wards it won in 2021, including a victory of the ANC by a handful of votes in Ward 15 (Coligny).  

The EFF hurt the ANC in townships, villages and farm areas as the party increased its seat allocation from six seats to 10. This is the chief reason the ANC lost its outright majority. The EFF emerged as the best-placed party to form an alternative government. 

The ANC fell four seats short of an outright majority. It will chance its arm and try to form a coalition with the PA, F4SD, AHC and SDM. Due to the animosity between the DA and the EFF, the EFF might battle to convince enough of the opposition parties to back it. The DA is also not likely to back a PA councillor as a compromise candidate. The party which might well end up in the pound seats if the EFF, the DA and the FF+ are determined to remove the ANC from Ditsobotla with the F4SD with its two seats. 

Due to this being a two-ballot by-election, we use the combined ward and PR vote percentage total for each ward as our basis for comparison. 

Mpumalanga

The setting: Mkhondo Municipality’s principal town is eMkhondo (formerly Piet Retief). It includes the small towns of Amsterdam and Dirkiesdorp, and also borders Eswatini. Mkhondo is timber country, and has a few mines as well. Famous residents from the area include opera singer Pretty Yende and cricketer Heino Kuhn. It forms part of the broader Gert Sibande District which covers the southern part of Mpumalanga and a good chunk of the centre of the province. Its seat of power is in Ermelo, and includes Standerton, Carolina, Elukwatini and Secunda. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won an outright majority in Mkhondo but lost eight of its 29 seats to end on 21 in the 39-seat municipality. It lost ground to the EFF and independent candidates. The EFF more than doubled its seat allocation – from three to seven – to become the official opposition in Mkhondo. Independents won two wards in the municipality. 

Despite the ANC winning a clear majority in 2021, independent councillor Mthokozi Simelane was elected mayor, with the ATM bagging the speaker’s position. There was much internal rancour within the ANC, and this factionalism resulted in the party not uniting behind one candidate for mayor. This saw six ANC councillors refusing to participate in the election of the mayor, which allowed Simelane to get in via the back door. The six – former mayor Vusi Motha and five ward councillors – were expelled from council. While Motha’s vacancy could be filled since he was on the PR list, by-elections were needed for the other vacancies. 

The by-election: All six former councillors defected to the EFF. However, none of the former ANC councillors stood as candidates in the by-elections. The ANC needed to retain four out of the five seats it came into the election defending in order to be assured of regaining control of Mkhondo. The five vacancies meant that only 16 out of the 21 seats the party won in 2021 were filled. Retaining four would mean that the party would occupy 20 out of the 38 seats in Mkhondo. This would give it an outright majority and it would be able to depose mayor Simelane and the ATM speaker. 

The ANC retained all five wards and felled the opposition in the by-elections. While the party’s support ranged from 45% to 68%, the EFF increased its vote share in all by-elections and hovered around the 30% mark. The EFF beat the independents in every single race.

The ANC is now able to fill the vacancies and remove the independent mayor and the ATM speaker and replace them with ANC candidates. The party now has just under four years to turn Mkhondo around. 

KwaZulu-Natal

Ward 99 (Umkomaas) in eThekwini: IFP 62% (26% PR) ANC 36% (36% PR) EFF 2% (7% PR)

The setting: Umkomaas is a coastal village which owes its origins to the sugar industry. It is south of Durban and on the edge of eThekwini’s municipal boundary with the Ugu district on the South Coast. It also includes Craigieburn and the township of Magabeni. 

The 2021 local government elections: The ANC prevailed by 747 votes on the PR ballot. It was even closer on the ward ballot where an independent candidate scythed off votes from a range of parties. The DA came third on the PR ballot with 21% of the vote. The ANC won seven out of the 10 voting districts in the ward. It did best in the townships around Umkomaas. These seven districts account for about half of the voters in the ward. The IFP won both Craigieburn voting districts and the DA ran away with it in the town of Umkomaas. 

The by-election: The ward councillor, Mnqobi Molefe, was shot dead at his fiancée’s home. Two policemen have been arrested for the murder. The IFP and DA formed an electoral pact for this by-election so as not to dilute the opposition vote. The DA sat out the by-election and endorsed the IFP’s candidate. Would the DA’s endorsement result in DA voters in Umkomaas and Craigieburn turning out and voting for the IFP? If the IFP were to have any chance of upsetting the ANC, it would need a high turnout in its favour in those voting districts. The IFP raised concerns about voters’ roll irregularities in some of the voting districts. 

Read in Daily Maverick: “ANC and DA split the win for municipal by-elections in Gauteng’s West Rand”

The gamble by the IFP and the DA paid off as DA voters heeded the call of the two parties and backed the IFP in the by-election. The IFP swept the town of Umkomaas and also won over DA voters in Craigieburn. The IFP romped home while the ANC remained stuck on 36% of the vote. 

The ANC now has 95 (96) councillors while the IFP gains an additional ward councillor to have 17 (16) seats in eThekwini. This means that mayor Mxolisi Kaunda’s tentative grip on the mayoral chain is even more flimsy now, since this loss comes on the back of the ANC dumping its coalition partner, the Abantu Batho Congress (ABC). With 95 seats, the ANC needs to win the backing of 17 other councillors to reach the magical number of 112 councillors who support the ANC, to ensure that it continues to have an ANC councillor lead the metro. The party will need to do more now to shore up the small parties or turn to the EFF (24 seats) in the 222-seat chamber to ensure that it has enough support to continue to wear the mayoral chain. 

Turnout: 43% (49%)

This mammoth round of by-elections brings an end to a year of many by-elections. They will resume in the third week of January with three in KwaZulu-Natal, including a marginal seat in Dannhauser in Northern KwaZulu-Natal.  

* The proportional representation (PR) ballot result from the previous election is used when it is a better indicator of support for a party in the ward.