ANALYSIS
NEC’s decision to quash Phala Phala panel report proves the ANC is (still) the only game in town
The ANC’s supremacy allows the party to retain all of the power without giving up any to other parties. And it means that any decisions about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s future will come only from within the ANC.
As opposition parties prepare to argue for the impeachment of President Cyril Ramaphosa next week, the current crisis once again appears to underscore just how weak they really are. In fact, this situation proves just how little influence opposition parties have in our politics.
This is for many reasons, including the fractured nature of the opposition, and the fact the ANC still has an absolute majority in the National Assembly. But the fact remains, that until a movement or group of movements arrives that could seriously threaten the ANC at the ballot box, it is likely that the opposition will remain impotent. And that the ANC will be able to continue to behave in this fashion.
Ahead of the parliamentary debate about the Phala Phala panel report which found Ramaphosa may have seriously violated the law and the Constitution, several opposition parties have already indicated which way they will vote.
The EFF’s leader, Julius Malema, said that his MPs will vote for the impeachment process to commence and that Ramaphosa should be removed. He called on ANC MPs who have publicly said Ramaphosa should step down to disobey their party whip.
These would include Cogta Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu and International Relations Committee Chair Supra Mahumapelo, whom he called by name.
It seems unlikely that they will heed his advice.
The African Transformation Movement (ATM), which lodged the motion in the first place, is also publicly arguing vociferously for Ramaphosa to be removed.
The DA appears to be playing a slightly more muted game: it is arguing Ramaphosa should be removed, but does not appear to be trying to influence the internal politics of the ANC to the same degree as the EFF.
NEC halts process in its tracks
Meanwhile, the ANC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) has instructed its MPs to reject the report, thus halting the impeachment process in its tracks.
This would mean that despite the findings, and despite the fact the ANC itself felt compelled to call so many high-level meetings in the last few days, it will simply reject the report.
And that would be the end of the parliamentary process. Finish en klaar.
The ANC still holds all the cards. Full stop.
This supremacy allows the party to retain all of the power without giving up any to other parties. And it means that any decisions about Ramaphosa’s future will come only from within the ANC.
Also, as the ANC has now already held a “special NEC meeting”, it is unlikely to call another one before its conference, so this issue will probably be settled at Nasrec.
This leaves opposition parties with only one option, to attempt to overturn the National Assembly’s decision — presumably to reject the report — in court.
But, as UCT Public Law Professor Pierre de Vos has explained, it is unlikely that a judge or judges would ever try to overturn a parliamentary vote as it would mean that judges have replaced MPs and interfered with the separation of powers.
All of this suggests that opposition parties are in a weak position, strong statements and stunts notwithstanding.
This may be why Malema is still concentrating his efforts on trying to influence events within the ANC.
This may bring back memories of some of the pandemic times, when parties outside the government could only watch from the sidelines and shout.
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Opposition parties fight one another
In the days after the Phala Phala panel’s findings, it has been said by many people that while this is damaging for Ramaphosa, it is also damaging for the ANC. Once again, the party is defending a leader it installed in office against claims of corruption.
And again, people have made the prediction that the ANC could fall below 50% in the 2024 elections.
But it is still not clear where voters will move to. In other words, there is still no indication that the current opposition parties are really going to benefit from this.
In fact, in some cases, it appears that opposition parties, such as the Good party and ActionSA, are more interested in taking votes from each other than from the ANC.
While it can be easy to ignore opposition parties, it is this weakness that allows the ANC to keep repeating this cycle.
If the ANC were under more electoral pressure, and genuinely believed it could lose national power, that pressure might translate into real renewal. If it was really worried about losing power, it would be forced to implement its stated intention to act against corruption.
To put it another way, if opposition parties were that close to taking electoral power, it is unlikely that David Mahlobo or Sisulu would still hold positions in government, and many would enjoy government food and lodging at Pollsmoor.
And it would surely be impossible for Zweli Mkhize to run for office if ANC delegates knew they would lose a general election because of the scandals he is linked to.
The strength of opposition parties matters to the health of a democracy.
It is worth repeating that one of the reasons Britain is in such a political mess is that the opposition Labour Party was so weak while the nationalists in the governing Conservative Party were pushing for Brexit. With a stronger Labour Party, Brexit may never have happened.
The apparent weakness of opposition parties may be why so many have jumped with such enthusiasm for new parties when they are launched.
It might explain why some believed the UDM, then Cope, then the Independent Democrats and then the Good Party and then perhaps the Rivonia Circle could be the new governing party.
But to believe this is to forget how difficult it is to form a party with a wide coalition of interests in our country. It is because of our extreme inequality that forming a party that covers a broad spectrum of incomes, identities and interests is always going to be difficult.
The structure of our society makes this difficult, and it’s likely that the situation will not change for some time — it may be many years before a party can come close to challenging the ANC’s breadth of support.
The ANC may continue to tolerate this kind of situation within its ranks, where it can remain divided, and allow those with question marks against their names to remain in elected positions of power.
Like so much of our politics, the true problems may well have more to do with the structure of our society than the personalities of those involved. DM
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The article seems to oblivious to the reality of South African politics and money that the ANC introduced and is now is unable to keep up with the politics of the market as it has difficulty paying salaries, UIF, SARS, the provident fund and medical aid . The source of funding who have been its benefactors for corrupt tenders in the state, business organisations and direct proceeds of crime have dried up. The political playing field is being leveled with the ANC out of the major metros has been denied its ability of patronage like the late Geoff Makhubo explained to the Zondo Commission. The ANC has long ceased to be the only game in town and its journalists like Stephen Grootes are even unable to see the writing on the wall and he thinks that their strategy with a coterie of journalists to control the narrative has become reality. Stephen has lost his moral and ethical compass to gloat about a party that is opposing the findings of a panel set up by the Speaker elected by the very party and he should be joining Carl Niehaus. The days of the Manufactured Consensus no longer obtain as social media has under cut the MSM and its narrative and he must ask the Americans, Iranians and the Chinese.
The days of political boxing fans are over. As Ramaphosa journalists you must get it in your heads if the last two elections have taught you nothing. The growth of opposition even you do not like it, is to the advantage of the economy and the people of this country.
I think you are misreading the article. There’s no gloating, no approval – rather, a cheerless pragmatic view.
As fine a piece of muddled thinking as I’ve ever read. I don’t think that Stephen Grootes was either saying or implying any of the beliefs you have attributed to him. He was simply reflecting the reality of the situation, not supporting it. I can’t speak for him, nor would I wish to, but to put him in Carl (crazy) Niehaus’ company is a stretch waaaaayyyy to far! As an old Prog, and current DA supporter, I too am relieved that the president is taking the report on review. 2024 is what the opposition should be focusing on and working hard to hugely increase its representation. If you wish to focus on media, you may wonder why Malema (with insignificant representation) gets so much coverage for his spewing of hatred.
The DA will be voting for the adoption of the report according to its Chief Whip Nosiviwe Gwarube ant it accepts the report of the Panel. It raises questions why Cyril if he claims innocence afraid to vindicate himself in the impeachment inquiry. Cyril will not win in court and has not made the application for review on an urgent basis as a political strategy. The fate of Cyril will be determined by various factors and the ANC does not have an exclusive say. There is what is called political capital that he is daily losing. The court application is not a genuine effort but a political ploy linked to the ANC Conference.
Cunningham, you are wrong about the process in many ways. CR has in fact approached for direct to ConCourt and opposing parties have ten days to file responses. The DA will lose a lot of support with this game they keep on playing. If they push the panel farce I and most friends and family are done with them forever. Since only parliament can impeach, it is in fact and by way of maths the ANC that would have had the say if that process did commence. The court will strike down the panel report for its obvious defects. If actual, lawful, tested evidence eg SARS, SARB does implicate CR, my bet is he resigns.
I find that whenever John Steenhuissen is mentioned amongst my group of middle class DA voters, there is a lot of eye rolling and tutting. He really seems to have lost touch with reality.
It is wrong for you to say that Cyril must not account because you fear some ANC people. He is going to lose the court case that at least I can assure if you have read the report. It does not matter who brought the matter up as he was supposed not to be involved in illegality and with a shady businessman from Sudan whose source of wealth cannot be accounted for and was under investigation even in Sudan. There is more than it meets the eye. Murder must not be reported by a person viewed as a criminal without you laying any charges and with Cyril having kept him until retirement. You are a very funny person. Dictatorship and fascism does not beat drums when it is coming.
I agree with Cunningham. This is not a farce – it is real. Ramaphosa has behaved in a predictable ANC fashion, and has relied on his old mentor, Puma, style tactics to cling to power. Any self-respecting first world politician would have resigned by now.
An odd conclusion: we should feel hopeless and despair? Our opposition parties are a great disappointment, but surely the greatest betrayal and disappointment comes from ANC? The only game in town? (No) cops and robbers? Simple Simon?
The opposition parties to left and right of ANC are playing exactly the game Fraser and the RET want them to play. What will change? If the ANC splits and a leader like Trevor Manuel (not saying he will but somebody like him) can recreate what we had in the UDF. It had very divergent communities but they united with the Nats as the common enemy. Breaking up the UDF when the ANC alliance formed was a big mistake for the country. It is absurd that the tiny Communist Party remained relevant but the hundreds of times bigger UDF did not.
With respect Stephen, I’m happy to be informed by your opinion of SA politics, it’s complete lack of democracy or, need to serve it’s electorate/constituency but, Brexit, is that necessary? That vote to leave the EU was taken by the majority of the voters, regardless of their political colour because they were fed up by centralised Govt, by an unelected European executive, which manifested in so much a daily life. All of the UK political parties were weak because they did not understand the groundswell of opinion against Europe. At least Uk politics is democratic, accountable and supports a well funded social state. Exactly what SA’ “people” should enjoy were it not for the ANC’s inability to govern because it’s constitution trumps the SA Constitution.
For me the biggest let-down is the DA’s inability to become relevant to the majority of South African citizens. The had the chance to be a major force in 2024 but they blew it.
Yup, the DA has been a huge disappointment in a general disappointment with opposition politics in RSA. It’s too late to cry over the proverbial spilt milk, but isn’t it a shame that Mmusi Maimane didn’t have the backbone to see-off the Zilles of the world and stay at the helm of the DA. He had all the credentials needed to attract swarms of supporters to the DA, regardless of colour or creed. John S is a great leader, but he is just too white at the end of the day. And, of course, one of the great tragedies of the dark Zuma era has been the stoking of racism to keep the RET ANC in the game – ensures black versus white rather then the Rainbow Nation that was emerging. and if it is simply black versus white, the democracy numbers game keeps the evil RET alive and well.
I am thoroughly disappointed with the role that the opposition parties are playing in this saga. They should have known better than to become involved in the first place. It was obvious right from the start that the whole story was a just set-up to try to derail the campaign of Ramaphosa against the endemic corruption in SA, and of all people they should have realised it immediately. And it may just be that this childish attitude of the opposition will discredit them to such an extent that the ANC will return to power again in 2024 as a result; especially if Ramaphosa’s campaign starts to show results in that the real corrupt guys start to get convicted, the problems at Eskom starts to be solved, the bad guys in the ANC does get marginalised, and the green energy economy starts to gain momentum and create jobs, as I suspect is going to happen.