Western Cape

Ward 38 (Nyanga KTC) in Cape Town: ANC 63% (74%) GOOD 16% (5%) DA 13% (3%) EFF 5% (9%) UDM 1% (1%) PAC 1% (1%) Ind-Yengwa 1% ARA <1% (<1%)

The setting: Nyanga sits next to the N2 highway, which separates the township from Cape Town International Airport, as well as Crossroads and Gugulethu. 

Members of Good Party dancing and singing outside a voting station at John Pama primary in Nyanga for by-elections in Ward 38 on 23 November, 2022. (Photo: Xabiso Mkhabela)

Members of political parties, the ANC, EFF, DA and Good dance and sing outside a voting station in Nyanga where a by-election for Ward 38 took place on Wednesday, 23 November. (Photo: Xabiso Mkhabela)

The 2021 local government election: Nyanga is a traditional bastion of ANC support in Cape Town. The party beat the EFF by more than 4,100 votes in 2021 and came close to winning three-quarters of the vote in the ward. The ANC would have been disappointed by the low turnout in the election since this would have affected the proportional vote total in Cape Town. Its best results were in voting stations close to Terminus Road. At the Phakama Community Centre – the most vote-rich part of the ward, accounting for about 20% of the voters in it – the ANC won 79%. At John Pama Primary School it won 80%. The EFF came second with 10% or more of the vote in three of the seven voting districts, including the Phakama Community Centre. The three voting districts where the EFF performed best are the three most vote-rich parts of the ward. The Good party finished third. It also won more than 10% of the vote in three of the voting districts. Its best result was 15% at the Independent Methodist Church voting district, which is on the other side of Terminus Road, further away from the airport. The DA came fourth, with 6% of the vote at the Hlazo Hall voting district between Terminus Road and the N2 being its best result. 

The by-election: Veteran councillor and community leader Thembisile Ntamo passed away. The ANC was heavily favoured, with seven other parties appearing on the ballot. The battle for second place was expected to be the most interesting contest. The ANC lost ground in the by-election. The result could have been more concerning for the party had it not had the returns in the most vote-rich part of the ward. It won 81% of the vote at the Phakama Community Centre, an uptick from 79% in the local government elections. The ANC lost significant ground in three of the voting districts. At Andile High School district it fell from 74% to 46%, while GOOD rocketed from 10% to 44%. At the Independent Methodist Church the ANC fell from 72% to 56% and GOOD went from 15% to 37%. GOOD also grew from 11% to 34% at the Eyethu Eye Care voting district. This was largely at the expense of an independent candidate who was not on the ballot this time round. 

The ANC fell from 75% to 48% at the Hlazo Mini Hall district, with the DA jumping from 6% to 38%. The latter grew from 4% to 19% at the Stormont Madubela voting district, with the ANC decreasing its percentage vote share from 78% to 65%. The EFF will be disappointed with its fourth-place finish after finishing second here in 2021. 

Turnout: 26% (38%).

Ward 17 (Northern Paarl) in Drakenstein, Cape Winelands: DA 49% (80%) FF+ 41% (13%) ANC 5% (2%) Ind-Abrahams 3% EFF <1% (<1%) ARA 0

The setting: Ward 17 is a safe DA seat north of the Paarl town centre. Most of the voters live in the Noorder Paarl suburb. The other voting district is on the outskirts of Paarl in the Nieuwe Drift area, which is centred on farms. Drakenstein is the second-most vote-rich part of the Western Cape. It includes the town of Wellington and extends to the small mission station of Saron. Drakenstein is part of the Cape Winelands District which encompasses Stellenbosch, Worcester, Franschhoek, Ceres and Montagu. The Cape Winelands is the most vote-rich district in the province after the City of Cape Town. 

The 2021 local government election: The DA ran up the numbers here in 2021, winning 80% of the vote, while the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) made inroads with more than 10%. In Noorder Paarl the FF+ won 15%, but only 3% in the Nieuwe Drift area. The DA all but received the same returns in the two voting districts. Two-thirds of the voters in the ward are in the Noorder Paarl area, while one-third are in Nieuwe Drift. There was a significant turnout differential between these two areas, with the former recording 72% and Nieuwe Drift only 52%. 

The by-election: The DA ward councillor passed away. The DA and FF+ were joined on the ballot by the ANC, the EFF and an independent candidate. The FF+ came close to causing a major upset in this by-election as the DA bested it by only 136 votes. The FF+ won the Noorder Paarl voting district in a major turnaround when comparing the results from just over a year ago. The FF+ won 63% of the vote, way up from the 16% it obtained there in 2021. The DA was cut down to size as it fell from 80% to 36%. The party had to rely on Nieuwe Drift to regain the ground lost at Noorder Paarl. While the DA lost ground in this district, falling from 79% to 73%, the FF+ was not able to get into this voting district race, as it remained on 3%, the same returns as in 2021. The margin of victory here was greater than the FF+’s margin in Noorder Paarl. 

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The turnout differential was also turned on its head, as turnout at Noorder Paarl was halved from 72% to 36%, with Nieuwe Drift sitting at 42%, down from 52% in 2021. This saw proportional turnout higher at Nieuwe Drift in the by-election. 

The by-election result is most encouraging for the FF+. This comes on the back of its shock by-election win against the DA in Bela-Bela. Here the candidate was less well-known than the candidate in Bela-Bela. A factor that needs further analysis is the text message campaign endorsement of the FF+ by Phil Craig’s Cape Independence Advocacy Group. The DA will have to go back to the drawing board as this is the second consecutive by-election in a row in which it has been hurt by Pieter Groenewald’s party. This also affects the narrative of a turnaround for the DA which recent by-elections were suggesting. 

Turnout: 38% (65%).

Mpumalanga

Ward 15 (Ntombe Wittenberg) Mkhondo in Gert Sibande: ANC 39% (48%) EFF 22% (9%) Ind-Ntashlintshali 18% Ind-Nkosi 13% Ind-Kunene 3% (12%) IFP 3% (4%) AACUM 2%

The setting: The vast, rural Ward 15 in Mkhondo extends from Wittenberg, southwest of the principal town of the Mkhondo Municipality (formerly Piet Retief), to the KwaZulu-Natal border. Most of the voters in Ward 15 reside in and around Entombe, a village abutting the border and site of the Entombe battlefield. The ward includes the village of Commondale and a host of voting districts centred on farms in the district. Mkhondo Municipality includes the small towns of Amsterdam and Dirkiesdorp, and also borders Eswatini. It forms part of the broader Gert Sibande District which covers the southern part of Mpumalanga and a good chunk of the centre of the province. Its seat of power is in Ermelo, and includes Standerton, Carolina, Elukwatini and Secunda.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC won an outright majority in Mkhondo but lost eight of its 29 seats to end on 21 in the 39-seat municipality. It lost ground to the EFF and independent candidates. The EFF more than doubled its seat allocation – from three to seven – to become the official opposition in Mkhondo. Independents won two wards in the municipality. 

The ANC comfortably won Ward 15. However, considering the rural profile of the ward, it would not have been content with its result in the ward and the proportional representation (PR) ballot. On the ward ballot it beat independent candidate Bhekisisa Kunene by roughly four votes to one. The EFF finished fifth behind the NFP and the DA. The ANC won 53% of the PR vote, with the National Freedom Party (NFP) getting 12%, the EFF 11% and the DA 10%. 

There are six voting districts in the ward. More than one-third of the voters in the ward are in the Entombe area. This is where the ANC put the result beyond any doubt when it won just under 70% of the vote in the district. It was its second-best performance when one considers all the districts in Ward 15. The party won 72% in the Uitgevallen Farm district, although this is the second-least-populated part of the ward. Independent Kunene won the Commondale voting district, the third-most vote-rich part of the ward, managing just under 50% and beating the ANC by more than two votes to one. He could not replicate this result in any of the other districts, failing to win more than 5% of the vote anywhere else and receiving no votes in Entombe. 

The EFF won 27% of the vote to finish second in the De Molen Farm voting district. The red berets also won 20% in the sparsest voting district in the ward, Salem School, but underperformed in Entombe (2%). The DA won the Wittenberg district with 30%, while the FF+ had a credible third-place finish with 22%. The NFP finished third on the ward ballot by winning 18% of the vote in Entombe. 

Despite the ANC winning a clear majority in 2021, independent councillor Mthokozi Simelane was elected mayor, with the ATM bagging the speaker’s position. There was much internal rancour within the ANC, and this factionalism resulted in the party not uniting behind one candidate for mayor. This saw six ANC councillors refusing to participate in the election of the mayor, which allowed Simelane to get in via the back door. The six – former mayor Vusi Motha and five ward councillors – were expelled from council. While Motha’s vacancy could be filled since he was on the PR list, by-elections were needed for the other vacancies. 

The by-election: The ward councillor passed away, thus this by-election is not linked to the Mkhondo drama. Sadly, the poll comes on the back of the assassination of a regional ANC leader, Gert Sibande deputy chairperson Muzi Manyathi, who was gunned down a few weeks ago. Recently the expelled ANC councillors all defected to the EFF. There are seven candidates contesting this by-election. The ANC has to fend off the EFF and three independents, including Kunene, the runner-up in 2021. The NFP, DA and FF+ decided to sit out this by-election. Unanswered questions going into the election included whether DA and FF+ voters in Wittenberg would get behind any of the other candidates and what the NFP voters in Entombe would do. 

The six voting districts were shared between the ANC, the EFF and an independent candidate, Sibusiso Ntshalintshali. The ANC was able to beat the EFF by 270 votes in the Entombe area and by 111 in the Uitgevallen Farm district. The margin of victory there was sufficient for the ANC to avert disaster. The party might have lost ground in Entombe, falling to 53% from 69%, but the bulk of that support went to an independent candidate, who won 25%. This was the only voting district where Jabulani Nkosi won more than 10% of the vote. 

The EFF won the De Molen farm district, doubling its support from 27% to 58%, while the ANC fell from 40% to 26%. It also won the Commondale voting district, growing from 7% to 46%, but the ANC also had some growth in Commondale, winning 22% of the vote, compared with 20% in 2021. The EFF won over a lot of Bhekikisa Kunene supporters as his vote share sunk from 49% to 9%. Ntshalintshali, the third independent candidate, won the Salem voting district off the ANC and also won the Wittenberg voting district, which was won by the DA in 2021. Incidentally, turnout was lowest in the by-election in Wittenberg as only 31% of the registered voters turned out. It was 10 percentage points below the next-lowest turnout and well under the ward average of 50%. 

While the ANC lost ground, this was still a vital hold as the party can fill a vacancy and now focus on the five wards which will be up for grabs in less than three weeks. 

Turnout: 50% (49%).

Ward 4 (Kamaqhekeza Naas) in Nkomazi, Ehlanzeni: ANC 68% (77% PR) EFF 30% (17%) Able Leadership 2%

The setting: Kamaqhekeza is a village next to the R571 road which links the Mananga border with Eswatini to the town of Komatipoort. It sits next to Tonga and is close to the Mozambican border.

The municipality also borders the Kruger National Park. Its seat of power is Malelane. It is part of Ehlanzeni which includes Mbombela and Bushbuckridge. 

The 2021 local government election: Nkomazi was the second-safest municipality for the ANC in the province in the 2021 elections. It was just shy of 70% on the ward ballot, while scooping more than 75% on the PR ballot. Independent candidates getting close to 10% of the ward vote was a chief contributor to this not being the best municipality for the ANC in Mpumalanga.

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The ANC won 64% of the ward vote in the local government elections, with an independent candidate finishing second on 24%. The EFF was a distant third on 9%. The independent candidate affected both the ANC and the EFF as the ANC won 77% on the PR ballot and the EFF managed 17% of the vote. The ANC beat the EFF by 1,800 votes on the PR ballot. Just under 40% of the voters in the ward are around the Kamaqhekeza Community Hall, where the ANC won 80% of the PR vote. The EFF did best at the Salvation Army voting district, taking 25% of the PR vote. The challenge here is that it is one of the least-populated voting districts.

The by-election: The previous ward councillor passed away. This election comes on the back of a recent October Nkomazi by-election where the EFF stunned the ANC in a safe ANC seat. A provincial party, Able Leadership, joined them on the ballot.

The ANC saw some of its Nkomazi market share eroded, but there was no repeat of the KwaHoyi disaster. It swept all the voting districts, with its support ranging from 60% to 74%. The EFF came close to doubling its support in the ward but was unable to come close to replicating what it did in the last Nkomazi by-election. Having said that, the 30% tally is a base for further growth in this traditional bastion of ANC support. The EFF’s support ranged from 25% to 40% in the by-election. 

Turnout: 35% (42%)

Ward 25 (Trichardt Secunda) in Govan Mbeki, Gert Sibande: DA 80% (72%) ANC 16% (9%) IFP 2% EFF 2% (5%)

The setting: Trichardt is a small town next to the N17 national road, right next to the much bigger town of Secunda. Just more than half of the voters in the ward are in Trichardt, with just under half residing in Secunda. Govan Mbeki forms part of the Highveld Ridge area. It includes Bethal and forms part of the Gert Sibande district. 

The 2021 local government election: The DA had an easy win here in November but the FF+ gained ground, winning 12% of the vote. The DA won over 75% in the two most vote-rich districts in the ward. Even though the ANC finished third in the ward, it still won the least-populated voting district – 61% at the Trichardt Ebenezer Church. 

The ANC lost its outright majority in Govan Mbeki by losing 11 seats. Its 26-seat total was six seats short of the 32 needed for an outright majority on the 63-seat council. This was one municipality where the DA made significant inroads, winning 17 seats, up from 12 in 2016. The ANC was able to win the mayoral chain with support from the EFF. 

The by-election: The previous ward councillor resigned. The ANC and EFF appeared on the ballot with the DA. The FF+ decided to sit out the contest. The DA cantered to victory in the by-election, winning 80% of the vote. It was still somewhat off the combined total (84%) of the DA and the FF+ in 2021. The ANC’s growth in the ward came off the EFF as it increased its percentage vote share in the lone ANC district in the ward, Ebenezer Church, improving from 61% to 73%. The EFF’s vote share went from 22% to 5%. 

The DA won 94% and 96% of the vote in the two most vote-rich districts in the ward. There was a significant turnout differential in the ward. At the ANC stronghold of Ebenezer Church, 36% of registered voters showed up, while at the large two traditional DA voting districts only 21% and 22% of the registered voters showed up.  

Turnout: 20% (47%).

Next by-elections

The next round of by-elections will be on 30 November when there will be nine races. The ANC will believe it can win back two seats it lost to independents, and there will be four fascinating tussles between the ruling party and the IFP in rural parts of northern KwaZulu-Natal. DM