The problem with immigration jokes is that they are borderline offensive. For example, when I am asked my opinion about immigration reform, ‘I’m sitting on the fence’ is apparently not the right answer.  

But perhaps “sitting on the fence” is the right answer when it comes to semigration, or to give it its real name, hightailing it out of Joburg and down to the Cape. 

I won’t say who it is, but I have a relative who was positively snotty about people who moved to Cape Town from Johannesburg, where he was born and bred. So, of course, because life is a fickle kettle of fish, he got a job in Cape Town and was forced to move down long before it became fashionable. 

I would say “fashionable among the middle classes”, but that’s not exactly true since there has been a huge movement of people from the Eastern Cape to the Western Cape.

Anyway, after being in the Cape for some years, we were chatting on the phone and I asked what he did over the weekend. Apparently, he and his wife went cycling in the vineyards, popped into the vineyard store, bought a few bottles and had a nap under the oak trees after enjoying a picnic lubricated with the wine. 

My first thought was, that sounds wonderful. My second was, good grief, you have so acclimatised to the essence of Cape culture: it’s outdoors, but in a delicate and sophisticated sort of way. Strangely enough, there is no longer any talk about how Joburg is the “heartbeat” of South Africa, and it’s where “real people” live, as opposed to those suck-up, smug Capetonians. 

The “smug” Capetonian meme is actually only possible, it turns out, when you are not one of them. 

The precise extent of semigration to the Western Cape from the reef is hard to tally, but we might know soon because the 2022 Census should be out fairly soon. The 2011 Census showed a huge, disproportionate influx of black South Africans into the Western Cape, but also into Gauteng, compared with the 2001 Census. 

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The black population of the Western Cape went from 1.2 million to 1.9 million, while the black population of Gauteng went from 6.5 million to 9.5 million. That’s way beyond the 11% overall increase in the population over that period. Clearly, this was the period of a high movement of people into the cities.

The movement of white South Africans from Johannesburg was only marginally visible in that period; in fact, the growth rate of white people during this period was below the average population growth. 

It is amazing though; mixed-race South Africans outnumbered all other races in the Western Cape in the 1996 Census, but when the 2022 Census comes out, black South Africans will most probably be in the majority in the Western Cape. 

There is another way of looking at this, and that is through house prices. It’s a common meme that there has been enormous semigration from Gauteng to the Western Cape, and that is graphically visible in house prices in middle-class areas. 

The average sale price of houses in Kenilworth in 2013 was below R800,000; it’s now R1.7-million. The increases are roughly the same everywhere in Cape Town’s southern suburbs. The increase is a lot less marked in Cape Town’s snob areas – whether in the southern suburbs or on the Atlantic seaboard. Average sale prices of houses in Camps Bay are actually below where they were in 2017. One sympathises – or perhaps not. 

Compare that with Johannesburg’s middle-class areas; sales prices have been flat for almost a decade almost everywhere from Yeoville to Parktown. Sadly for the Guptas, even Saxonwold has been pointing south. 

Interestingly, in Johannesburg, the further north you go, the more prices have held up and even increased. Bryanston, in particular, is showing some metal. Perhaps this is what you might call semi-semigration. Interestingly, another place where prices are showing upward movement is Soweto. 

The overall picture is one of a fairly fluid population, whatever your particular regional politics happens to be. The movement suggests some negative features and some positives. Advocates of cities, of which there are many around the world, can demonstrate the huge health, wealth and lifestyle improvements that result in moving to cities. About 80% of global GDP is generated in cities. The overall movement of people to cities in SA is, theoretically, a positive. 

The problem is that cities have to have the capacity to cater for those incomers, and SA’s cities just don’t seem to be up to it, and that includes Cape Town. 

If you are paying double for the same-sized house in the country’s third-largest city, the city is obviously not approving plans for new houses fast enough. Cape Town is planning for more residents – about 400,000 people over the next four years. My guess is that this is way, way too low. 

The other positive is that South Africans are seeking out generally better-run cities, and here Cape Town does come out on top. You want a sense of accountability to reflect in demographic movement, and you are certainly seeing that among all races in Western Cape semigration. 

Sadly, the numbers also reflect high levels of emigration out of SA completely, another characteristic of our times. And, as someone who has lived in the big smoke practically my whole working life, I do feel for Johannesburg losing so much of its middle class to Cape Town and Perth. Ultimately, that will hurt the city, I suspect. But, that’s what accountability means. BM/DM