On Friday night, ANC leader President Cyril Ramaphosa presented the ANC national executive committee’s January 8th Statement, the traditional annual outline of the party’s plans and hopes for the year. 

Like so many similar addresses in recent times, it was examined more for evidence of internal ructions than for hard policy hints. But major questions now need to be asked about whether any individual or political party can hope to shape events during a pandemic, in a country with so many competing constituencies. And everything might well rest on the rollout of a Covid-19 vaccine.

In so many ways 2021 is shaping up to be so-2020. The main battle lines revolve around Ace Magashule. There are more promises of “working towards unity” and hopes that there will be some kind of central political authority within the ANC and the country. And on top of the “normal” considerable problems South Africa’s been facing for years, the main issue on everyone’s minds remains the pandemic.

There may be hope for resolution on both fronts.

The January 8th Statement itself, written by the NEC is categoric that, “We reiterate, as resolved by the National Conference, that every member accused of, or reported to be involved in, corrupt practices should account to the Integrity Commission immediately or face disciplinary processes. Members who fail to give an acceptable explanation or to voluntarily step down while they face disciplinary, investigative or prosecutorial procedures, will be summarily suspended.”

This, again, appears to show that, in public at least, Ramaphosa has the support of the NEC in his quest to ensure that Magashule steps aside as he faces corruption charges relating to the Free State asbestos scandal, with more legal problems likely coming his way in the near future.

He could well have some support from a slightly surprising quarter.

In December the KwaZulu-Natal ANC provincial secretary Mdumiseni Ntuli gave a lecture, a video of which only emerged in January. In that lecture, while speaking in isiZulu, he made the comment, which has been translated into English, that it was wrong for Magashule to say after his court appearance in Mangaung that only the branches of the ANC could recall him. 

In subsequent interviews, Ntuli has refused to back down from this, saying that the secretary-general of the ANC cannot be a leader who refuses to follow party resolutions.

This appears to show that the ANC’s biggest province, KZN, agrees with the NEC resolution. Considering this province’s past support for former President Jacob Zuma, this will be important for Ramaphosa’s quest.

Then there is what appears to be a series of quite dramatic announcements and promises about the Coronavirus vaccine.

Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize says they’re hoping to have 40 million South Africans vaccinated by the end of the year. Achieving just the first goal, of vaccinating one-and-a-half-million healthcare workers by the end of February, would be a major achievement.

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This would give much hope that the end of the pandemic could be closer than many thought. But this is intensely disputed and is likely to be the most important issue of the year.

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The power of the pandemic is shown in the ANC’s hopes and dreams for education in 2021. 

The party speaks of continuing with changes to education to prepare children for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. 

But already there are major questions around whether schools will be able to reopen on 27 January. Private schools have already delayed their return, and one of the main role-players in this, the teachers union Sadtu, says it is unable to say whether it will support a return to school by the end of the month. This is because of the large number of new Covid-19 cases and the large number of deaths that are being reported every day.

In the meantime, it does not appear that the Department of Basic Education has been able to create a reliable online education system to help those learners in its schools who could benefit from such a programme.

Education is perhaps the most complex governance issue of the pandemic and it is unlikely that this will be the year in which things improve dramatically.

Schools – the hardest governance decision of them all

The January 8th statement goes on to say: “As we expand access to Early Childhood Development, we must have an intensive focus on early reading, which is the basic foundation of educational progress.”

While the focus on Early Childhood Development is vital, the recent evidence of the ANC’s management of this sector shows that it has been almost deliberately neglected by the Department of Social Development. 

This again shows the gap in governance between the party’s promises and its actions.

Another gap is shown in the promise to “attend to the outstanding matters of investigations, prosecutions and reparations from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. This is important for the advancement of transitional justice both for the nation and the families of victims of apartheid-era crimes”.

This appears to be a promise that the ANC will ensure those who were denied amnesty, or refused to apply for amnesty, at the Truth & Reconciliation Commission for crimes they committed during apartheid will be punished.

But the evidence shows that it is the ANC’s own leaders, including former President Thabo Mbeki, who have insisted that these prosecutions do not take place.

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Why would the ANC make good on this promise now when it has actively prevented this from happening in the past?

There is also, of course, another gap between a promise made and reality in what is also a campaigning document in an election year.

When the ANC promises to work towards “lowering the cost of living” and says it will try to reduce the cost of electricity, there should be some cynicism. It is simply not possible to reduce the cost of electricity in the short term. The only way to do it is in the longer term by opening up the generation sector and allowing more renewable energy into the system.

But the ANC has made this promise anyway, on an issue that is going to become more and more important. Hundreds of thousands of people, in fact millions, are living through regular “load-reduction” measures during which Eskom switches off certain parts of Soweto and other areas around the country. Eskom says this is because its infrastructure cannot cope with the load imposed by illegal connections in a problem that goes back to before 1994. 

As a result, the ANC may be playing with fire as this is not a problem with any simple solutions.

Where the ANC is likely to make good on its promises is the issue of alcohol. 

The statement points out that, “The temporary restrictions that were placed on the availability of alcohol under the state of disaster regulations have demonstrated the extent to which abuse of alcohol fuels violence, trauma and reckless behaviour and places a burden on our health system and emergency services. We must take measures to reduce the abuse of alcohol through a combination of legislative and other measures and community mobilisation.”

This is likely to receive strong support from most of the ANC’s constituency, and probably the majority of the country. It is also an issue that can be dealt with through a series of measures which have been shown to have worked in other countries.

Let’s be more like the Russians

This means it could in the end be relatively uncontroversial and yet be a vote-winner for the ANC.

However, despite all of the hopes and dreams being expressed by the ANC, the real question it faces is whether it, or anyone else, can actually shape events at all.

The scale of the pandemic, its changing nature and the fact the second wave is proving to have moved more quickly and been more deadly than predicted, shows that it is virtually impossible to make good on any promises or any plans.

And thus it could well be that the only issue on which the ANC is judged this year is on government’s ability to vaccinate the country. 

This will obviously require more than government action, and private sector bodies are already deeply involved. But if this is successful, and seen to be successful, then government, and by extension the ANC, will claim the credit. 

And thus this could well define its year and possibly even the party’s future. DM