The decision by President Cyril Ramaphosa and the National Coronavirus Command Council to extend the lockdown by a further two weeks couldn’t have been an easy one. 

Unfortunately, there are likely to be people, both within the government and outside, who are going to urge further extensions, simply because the number of cases of Covid-19 in South Africa is bound to continue to rise. While there will be many factors to consider before making such a decision, in the end the deciding issue could boil down to legitimacy. Do people – voters, citizens, everyone living within our borders – believe the lockdown is merited, and are they thus complying with it? If they don’t, the entire process will be rendered pointless.

There is plenty of evidence that the lockdown is, generally speaking, being adhered to in some forms. Data from Google shows that trips to retail and recreation centres are down dramatically, radio traffic bulletins are an exercise in inspired creativity, children are at home and not at school.

Many will not be going to work because their companies are closed, and they’re closed because government and society has demanded it (any company that was not selling essential items would quickly become the focal point of public anger if it forced its workers to break the regulations).

Many people are complying because the government is insisting. But this is helped, for some perhaps, because it was Ramaphosa himself who made the demand, and because of his own personal credibility.

Reinforcing this are the messages that have come from other countries. The fact that the World Health Organisation is generally seen in South Africa as a politically neutral body and that we do not have a combative relationship with the United Nations is also important.

The messages and stories and general news flow that have come out of China since the start of the year have shown South Africans how important a lockdown is, and how it worked in Wuhan and elsewhere in the world’s emerging superpower. Many people will have friends and relatives in Europe, and will have heard and watched the news, as well as videos on WhatsApp and other services about the lockdowns there, that were enforced before ours.

This prepared the way. If there had not been this context, and if South Africans had not been aware of it, they might not have complied with Ramaphosa’s regulations in the way that they have.

But, with time, pressure is going to build for the regulations to be lifted.

The main point of impact will be economic; people are going to run out of money and many will run out of food. In the absence of any kind of massive food parcel scheme, or increase in social grants (and, for some reason, this still does not appear to be in the offing despite an incredibly strong case for them), hunger, frustration and anger are bound to grow.

People will be forced out of their homes and onto the streets looking for food for themselves and their families. No army in the world could contain a situation like that (the total number of soldiers in the SANDF is around 74,000, while the total number of police officers is around 190,000).

This is why it is vital to have a comprehensive response that deals with the economic situation, and gets enough food to people.

Amidst this, the legitimacy of the lockdown is likely to be tested.

First, some people in public life will start to question whether the lockdown is working, and whether it is the best solution. This is already happening, with some positing well-thought-out alternatives to our current situation (for an excellent example of what may well be a better long-term solution for South Africa see this piece in The Conversation).

If the government is seen to be ignoring these suggestions, many will feel it is dropping the ball.

Second, more and more mistakes will be made in the enforcement of the lockdown. More soldiers will be accused of brutality (there was an example of this in Masiphumelele over the weekend). The very forces enforcing the lockdown will be questioned. The response from communities may be to oppose it, even violently. Protests will spark, impossible to police because of the sheer number of angry, hungry, disillusioned people. The images of those protests will be shown across the country, and other demonstrations may follow, particularly in the face of any brutality.

At the same time, it is entirely likely that more examples of “petty corruption” will emerge, involving officers taking money to allow certain activities that are currently illegal. Already, there are examples of police officers in Mpumalanga being paid to escort a tavern owner transporting his alcohol; more will follow. One can imagine the power of the social media image of a police officer taking money to allow a funeral to take place.

This will dramatically undermine the legitimacy of the lockdown.

Other mistakes may well be made by people who are in government. Cabinet ministers caught following the example of Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams will face massive anger for breaking regulations they themselves promoted. The longer the lockdown, the greater the chance of this happening. 

Then there are the opposition leaders. While they have been completely behind the president up until this point, they may start to have differing views over whether a continued lockdown is the right strategy. They could start to press, in public, for some of the regulations to be relaxed, over, say, cigarettes or alcohol. Their constituencies could then feel that they too should question the regulations. 

On Monday 13 April the DA presented what it called its “smart lockdown” plan. While it is entirely within its rights to do so, the message to its constituency might well be that it is morally right to question parts of the current lockdown strategy.

All of this taken together would weaken the legitimacy of the extended lockdown. As it cannot be imposed by force (we are a very different society to China, where it is possible to violently force such a lockdown in a city or a province), the lockdown would start to weaken. As they see their livelihoods disappear, people will have to do something to save themselves.

The clock is ticking. It may be almost impossible to extend the lockdown past the current scheduled period, because the pressure rising up against it will be too great. Unless something very dramatic happens (such as a large rise in the number of deaths) its legitimacy will only weaken. 

It is vital now for the government to start working on alternatives. These would have to include allowing people to work, food relief, money flowing to businesses and individuals, and a master plan to get the entire economy moving again, while still doing everything possible to stop the virus from spreading. DM