History in the post-colony rarely unfolds in a straight line, although a retrospective look at patterns of history may suggest linear movement. Our history circles its own beginnings, repeating promises of liberation while rehearsing the familiar failures of power. Ruptures that follow present possibilities of restarts. Each rupture begins with noise, a promise of change, and ends in silence, a return to the old order. The post-colonial condition is still one of unfinished revolutions, dreams deferred and the endless labour of becoming.
Often these moments of rupture are occasioned by the collision between political (factional) interests and national security (in this case, broadly defined to include the economy). The current rupture is unfortunately not about growing the economy or saving the youth from the perils of poverty and inequality. Be that as it may, it is important to prospect how this rupture might unfold.
I argue that both those celebrating and those condemning this moment may come to regret it. Neither side deeply appreciates its weight and meaning nor is actively constructing cogent scenarios for its outcomes.
Yet there is a reality. Ruptures can, as the Arab Spring taught us, end in winter - barren, cold and without substance.
It is therefore vital that we deploy sound instruments of analysis and forecasting to find pathways toward the future.
My strong view is that there is, in truth, nothing to celebrate or to despise in this moment. Our emotions are driven by factional interests, not foresight. Events are random, spontaneous and without a strategic horizon. The winds of history may carry this rupture towards destinations shaped by headwinds beyond our control.
It is complicated, though not complex.
Possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Moral paralysis
As black people, we may find ourselves in a weakened moral position, without the authority needed to advance the transformation agenda. The state will enter a phase of paralysis, a void in which opportunists will thrive. This scenario will produce moral fatigue and political stagnation, where the vision of transformation risks fading into mere rhetoric. The attack on transformation by mainstream politicians, supported by local and international agents, adds fuel to this burning platform.
Scenario 2: Erosion of trust
Trust in the liberation movement and political leadership in general will continue to decline. Political legitimacy will be lost. A weak criminal justice system, combined with sluggish prosecutions of newly exposed rogues, might dampen the national mood, and return the nation to cynicism – dololo. In this scenario, institutions will further hollow out and public belief in collective progress will collapse.
Scenario 3: Economic drift
Economic stagnation and failing service delivery, the twin frontiers of national discontent, may persist. The spectacle of this drama might yield minor change, deepening despair. Because the desire for conspicuous consumption outweighs the fear of consequence, rogues will keep gambling on corruption. We all know that each reform intended to curb corruption has, paradoxically, generated new modalities of graft. This scenario suggests a continuing cycle of waste, theft and moral decay.
State-owned enterprises are not reforming fast enough. The poor sales pitch of the private sector participation strategy plays to the privatisation narrative, further creating uncertainty and weakening legitimacy of public policy.
Scenario 4: Social fracture
White arrogance will intensify, as it has been perceived to. Social cohesion will weaken. South Africa’s geopolitical position will become more exposed as global partners grow disillusioned with weakening governance and economic performance. The judiciary and the media will come under fire as rogues in their ranks are exposed. The Constitution will continue to be attacked as an elite pact responsible for entrenching ultra-liberalism at the expense of national development and social transformation. This scenario will mark the acceleration of the erosion of the social fabric, where resentment becomes the language of politics. We are returning to racial politics of the apartheid era.
Scenario 5: The authoritarian turn
Those perceived as strongmen, promising order and stability, will gain favour. Authoritarianism will become a preferred response to chaos. The electorate, weary of uncertainty, will surrender certain freedoms for the promise of control. This scenario will bring temporary calm but at the cost of weakened institutions and diminished democratic culture. Parties representing this tendency have one dividing line: immigration. One favour opens borders while the other calls for a crackdown on illegal immigration; the irony is not lost.
Scenario 6: Fragmented democracy
Public trust will continue to collapse to such an extent that no party commands a decisive majority. Votes will splinter across factions, independents, new parties and even stokvels with personal agendas. A fragile coalition will emerge, incapable of decisive reform and burdened by weak legitimacy. Government will remain in the ICU of survival, where the state rules by compromise among narrow sectarian interests rather than the pursuit of a coherent and ambitious national development agenda. This scenario will yield a false sense of continuity without real change, reform without courage. Poverty multiplies.
Scenario 7: Which Inanda will survive
When this drama ends, we will contend with what happens to Inanda of Durban and Inanda of Sandton. One represents regression (crime, governance failure and hopelessness) and the other represents privilege and opulence. South Africans live in both, with common aspirations for security and economic progress. Yet, one (Inanda of Sandton) will thrive despite government, while the other (Inanda of Durban) will die if the state fails. It’s a lose-lose scenario.
In the final analysis, the economic and social gains that follow this rupture may prove insubstantial. The reasons could vary, but at the centre lies a paralysis of leadership, a lack of courage, imagination and statecraft across the political spectrum.
The history of the post-colony is not merely a chronicle of failed states, as Western observers tend to write, but one of exhausted imaginations, an incapacity to forge compacts, and to place national interests ahead of the personal and factional.
Each generation inherits both the ruins and the myths of freedom. This moment may yet become another unfinished revolution, a repetition disguised as renewal. Whether we break the circle will depend not on heroes of the moment, but on the courage to imagine differently, to think beyond our limitations and forge meaningful compacts. DM