In about three weeks, on 9 September, Statistics South Africa will release the GDP data for the second quarter of 2025. One of the sectors that some are likely to be observing closely, because of its significant influence on our fortunes in recent years, is agriculture.
In the first quarter of the year the sector’s performance was pleasing; the agricultural gross value added expanded by 15.8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted). This expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors.
But as close observers of the sector know, the quarterly data tends to be somewhat volatile, influenced by times of harvest and crop deliveries, among other factors. For this reason, I remain slightly concerned that the second-quarter performance may not be as robust as at the start of the year.
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/401089503.jpg "A field of wheat. (Photo: Bartek Sadowski/Bloomberg)")
We had a delay in our summer grain harvest, with more momentum at the start of the third quarter than usually seen in the second quarter of the year. Indeed, we have ample summer grain and oilseeds, estimated at 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year). But the season was late by roughly a month and a half because of the excessively prolonged summer rains, among other factors.
We have also continued to struggle with foot and mouth disease and a few avian influenza cases, particularly in the second quarter. It was at the end of the second quarter that the foot and mouth disease vaccines arrived in South Africa for the start of the vaccination campaign.
Of course, not all crops were late. The citrus harvest season started in the second quarter, and we have an ample harvest. Farmers moved quickly to take advantage of the tariff pause window in the US, which allowed for faster harvesting and added to the upside in our thinking about the second-quarter performance.
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/39-Sugar-cane.jpg "A woman arrives to work in a sugarcane field near the Kruger National Park in Komatipoort. (Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)")
On the upside, the field crops, mainly grains, oilseeds and sugarcane all expect a fantastic recovery from last season. We also have an excellent harvest of fruits and vegetables.
When it comes to quarterly growth, the agricultural sector may show a slight slowdown in the second quarter, following a 15.8% increase quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2025. I am talking about contraction, but modest growth. This is because of the late harvest and grain deliveries to silos.
With all these factors considered, the critical point is that I remain convinced that 2025 is likely to be a recovery period for South Africa’s agriculture. But it will be an uneven recovery. DM