Extracting greater value from the BRICS partnership has been highlighted as a key strategy for South Africa to diversify export markets and attract investment – particularly in the face of the US tariffs now in effect, and warnings of further tariff hikes targeted at BRICS countries.
However, we must strike a balance between investment that strengthens local manufacturing, creates jobs and stimulates export value, and investment that weakens local industrialisation and employment.
Nelson Mandela Bay’s economy is anchored in manufacturing, which is dominated by the assembly of automobile and auto components, as well as other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and beverages.
The experience of the Brazilian automotive manufacturing sector, which has attracted more than $4.5-billion in investment from Chinese automakers over the past few years, provides a number of lessons on both sides of the equation that can be learnt by South Africa and other BRICS partners to ensure new investments are mutually beneficial.
While Brazil succeeded in attracting substantial foreign investment, domestic production remained dominated by foreign components imports, with little use of locally manufactured components.
This highlights a persistent challenge for Brazil and other emerging economies: how to leverage foreign investment for genuine industrial upgrading and localisation of components, rather than merely becoming a minor assembly point.
South Africa is already experiencing a rapid influx of Asian-manufactured vehicles into our local market, edging out sales of locally produced vehicles. Incoming manufacturing investments include the assembly of imported vehicles that are already partly assembled with all their components (semi-knockdown, or SKD assembly), which add little value in terms of manufacturing employment or growing local component manufacturing.
This production mode is eroding the strength that completely knockdown (CKD) manufacturing, as performed by the long-standing original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), brings to the local economy, with its far greater levels of investment, employment and localisation of manufacturing.
CKD manufacturing enables deep value chains that develop an interconnected ecosystem of local Tier 1 and Tier 2 component manufacturing, along with a surrounding network of local suppliers of goods and services, that has a ripple effect into all other sectors of the economy.
Given the current situation of not only the US tariffs but also the need to strengthen the policy and incentives environment to encourage CKD over SKD manufacturing, prevent dumping of cheap products into the South African market, and support local manufacturers to respond to the global shift to new energy vehicles, the experience of the Brazilian automotive industry warrants attention.
Brazil is a key market for the global automotive industry, recognised as the world’s sixth-largest car market and holding the dominant position in Latin America. Substantial market size coupled with its strategic role as a gateway to the broader Latin American region, makes Brazil an exceptionally attractive growth opportunity for global automakers.
The country’s expanding middle class and a growing demand for eco-friendly transport solutions, supported by government policy, further amplify its appeal, positioning it as a key destination for new energy vehicle exports and investment.
The massive investments in Brazil by Chinese automakers, with their advanced EV technologies and aggressive expansion strategies, have disrupted the long-standing dominance of traditional Western and Japanese brands and Brazil’s CKD auto manufacturing sector. This is similar to the disruption in South African automotive manufacturing, which has grown rapidly in the past five years.
Like South Africa, Brazil faces a delicate balancing act between attraction of foreign direct investment with its long-standing objective of fostering a robust and self-sufficient local automotive industry.
Tariff exemptions initially led to a rush of fully built-up Chinese vehicles into the Brazilian market, a “dumping” strategy that undermined local manufacturers. Chinese investors initially pursued SKD assembly, importing most parts, particularly high-value EV batteries where China has substantial capacity.
Job creation commitments were much lower than initially promised – due to factors including Brazil’s substantial skills gaps, the use of imported labour and the lower job creation of SKD manufacturing and lack of creation of local supporting value chains of any substance. Due to different approaches to labour, Chinese companies also encountered significant friction with Brazil’s strong labour union movement, attracting outrage at the treatment of workers.
The focus on SKD assembly resulted in limited technology transfer and did not stimulate growth of local supply chains, reducing the industry to an assembly line dependent on China’s value chains and imported labour, rather than enabling innovation and the creation of direct and indirect jobs as seen in CKD manufacturing.
The influx of Chinese investment created a fundamental tension with Brazil’s national industrial development goals, which aim for deep local value creation, job security and genuine technology transfer.
Brazil has since reintroduced import tariffs on EVs, commencing in 2024 and projected to reach 35% by July 2026, serving as a significant policy driver compelling automakers to establish local production. It is also now implementing robust policies on investment, to deepen manufacturing supply value chains into component production, with policies also related to technology transfer and adherence to labour laws.
Achieving sustainable long-term success in Brazil for automakers requires moving beyond assembly to deeper localisation, investing in local research and development and skills development, and proactively engaging with labour unions to build trust and ensure compliance.
For the Brazilian government, a refined industrial policy that actively incentivises technology transfer, supports local supplier development and invests strategically in critical infrastructure and workforce retraining is paramount to truly harness the benefits of the EV transition and foreign investment for national industrial upgrading.
In moving to ensure that investment meets local industrialisation and employment goals, Brazil has flexed its considerable muscle – as a top-tier global automotive market and having a significant renewable energy matrix – to ensure that it is not a passive recipient of foreign investment. It actively employs policy tools, such as tariffs and the “green mobility and innovation programme” (Mover), to assert its national interests. By insisting on local production and job creation, Brazil positions itself as a critical arena for global EV dominance.
The willingness of major Chinese automotive players to adapt to local market demands, such as producing ethanol-flex hybrids, underscores Brazil’s significant leverage in shaping the terms of engagement for foreign automakers. This adaptation to local needs and policies is a testament to Brazil’s ability to influence foreign investment to align with its unique market characteristics.
A further consideration as South Africa seeks to strengthen trade and investment relationships with the BRICS countries is that of the nature of the exports. While South Africa’s exports to the European Union and to BRICS and related markets are roughly equivalent at about $20-billion per annum, there is a key difference in that exports to BRICS comprise mostly unbeneficiated minerals and other raw materials while those to the EU (and the US) are, in addition to minerals, more focused on a diversified range of added-value manufactured products. In the latter case, innovation is stimulated, intellectual property generated and higher-value employment is created along with integrated value chains.
South Africa needs to shift the balance of its trading equation from being a source of low-margin raw materials to a source of high-margin, value-added products, as well as a destination for value-adding investment.
Another key factor to ensure the sustainability of CKD vehicle manufacturing is to make it an entry requirement for incoming investors to not only compete in the domestic market, but to also have export markets for vehicles and/or locally produced components. Simply displacing domestic vehicle sales of OEMs who already produce in the country, further exacerbates the risk of factory closures.
In the same way that there needs to be rules of entry for manufacturers entering the country, this also needs to be in place to ensure that orderly and responsible exits take place from the market. This should be centred on protecting the surrounding ecosystem of suppliers, and providing a level of mitigation and transition support to enable them to explore alternative options.
We can retain local manufacturing by putting mutually beneficial investment and trading relationships at the centre of negotiations, rather than perpetuating extractive relationships.
This we believe is essential if we are serious about retaining and attracting investment and employment, especially in the Bay, which is the area in South Africa most adversely affected by the current global trade shifts. DM