The water supply system sustaining the Gauteng economy is complex and vast. Pipelines are big and cover long distances as water is pumped uphill from the Rand Water processing plant adjacent to the Vaal River.
Pumps are big, and in need of constant maintenance and upgrading, but more importantly the pressures involved are high enough to be lethal if a pipe should fail.
Even more importantly, the servitudes that carry this infrastructure need to be kept clear of habitation, so the encroachment of informal settlements erodes the reliability of the system, while also exposing residents to potentially lethal risk.
Why is this of importance to the public?
The answer is simple. If pipelines fail, people are directly affected, with a range of outcomes, all of which are undesirable. The worst possible outcome is the potential loss of life or property, but the most likely outcome is disruption to the water supply for all users serviced by any given pipeline.
If a single pipeline fails, tens of thousands of people are inconvenienced, businesses are distressed and hospital services are degraded. All of this makes people angry.
We see lots of anger right now, so let us drill down into the national security implications arising from this growing anger.
Scheduled upgrades
First, let me describe the context. Rand Water has been engaged in a series of complex infrastructure upgrades over the past few months. These have generally been well communicated across different platforms, including the Platform for a Water Secure Gauteng that I have been reporting on.
Each of these upgrades has required some disruption to the supply chain, so communication has been designed to minimise that disruption. More importantly, each specific upgrade has been carefully planned and, in all cases, flawlessly executed within the projected timeframe, often ahead of schedule.
One of these scheduled upgrades involved maintenance at the Zwartkopjes Booster Pumping Station between 30 June and 2 July 2025. This needed the C11 pipeline to be drained of all water.
After the scheduled work was completed, the system was repressurised, and catastrophic failure occurred in the vicinity of Swartkoppies Road and Mall of the South when two air-relief valves blew out on Friday, 4 July. These relief valves are needed to bleed air from the system because water hammer damages the pipes and associated infrastructure.
The resultant plume of water was visible a kilometre away, so the C11 pipeline was shut down, disrupting supply to Forest Hill, Berea Reservoir, Parktown 2 Reservoir, Hector Norris Pump Station, Crown Gardens, Oakdene, Glenvista, Glenanda and the Johannesburg inner city. Repairs were affected and the system was returned to service on Saturday, 5 July.
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This is where it gets interesting, because during the inspection that preceded the repair, it was noted that two air-relief valves had been vandalised when the system was offline for the Zwartkopjes Booster Pump maintenance.
With my own professional knowledge of water as a national security risk, my immediate reaction is to ask whether this incident was the result of simple vandalism, or possibly part of deliberate sabotage?
The answer to this question is extremely important, given the severe implications for disruption of water supply. I will therefore try to answer this question given the information available to me at the time of writing.
The first point I must stress is that, according to a Rand Water press statement on 5 July, it was clearly stated that these pipelines pass through informal settlements and “these areas are notorious for vandalising Rand Water infrastructure”.
However, when I reached out to Rand Water for comment, I asked whether this incident was part of an observed pattern. I was informed that beyond the normal vandalism, this incident stands out as being different by virtue of the magnitude of the impact. The police are involved in an investigation, so we must not pre-empt their findings.
Shades of 2021
Which brings me to the second point I wish to make. During July 2021, there was widespread social unrest that started in KwaZulu-Natal, but rapidly spread to Gauteng. This was characterised by extensive looting and a disruption of the supply chain at national level, but linked to political dynamics around Jacob Zuma.
More importantly, however, was the fact that preceding the July looting, I had observed several incidents in the KZN South Coastal area which suggested to me that these were not just random acts of spontaneous looting, but rather suggestive of a coordinated set of actions with the intention of destabilising the area.
For example, I noted a series of so-called vandalism incidents that just happened to destroy water supply in the Ugu District Municipality area. It was the selection of those critical pieces of infrastructure that suggested to me that a deliberate strategy might be playing out.
From my observation, I noted that, with minimal effort, the destruction of critical components like valves brought about a disproportionally large impact. It was the asymmetry between effort and impact that suggested to me that the so-called vandalism might be part of a larger strategy.
This is exactly what the C11 blowout is about, but on a larger scale.
Then, separately from the “vandalism” of the water supply was the so-called spontaneous mobilisation of different groups of “protesters” who randomly converged on critical parts of the road infrastructure that “just happened” to result in residents of KZN being unable to leave their homes for travel. At that time, people visiting the complex I lived in near Port Shepstone were unable to get to the airport for business meetings in Johannesburg.
Read more: When will Joburg get its water back? Rand Water answers our questions
Other tell-tale signs caused me to conclude that something was amiss, so I put out a post on social media. My post happened just before the looters’ war erupted and, as a result, I was contracted by commercial interests to assess whether the incident was criminal or politically motivated.
The answer to that question would drive insurance claims to either Sasria or commercial insurance companies. The numbers were staggering. The stakes were exceptionally high.
Which brings me back to the current incident. If the C11 blowout on 4 July was simply vandalism, then an appropriate response is for Rand Water to perform a risk assessment to identify vulnerable points in their system and upgrade security at those key points. Public education would be helpful.
However, if the C11 blowout was sabotage, then it is likely to be a precursor of something of a greater national security threat - but it could also be related to the Tanker Mafia chasing tenders. This is why the police investigation is so important.
I truly hope that it includes the preservation of forensic evidence that might speak to the deliberate targeting of vulnerable equipment on water supply networks as part of an asymmetrical power struggle. I truly hope that I am not seeing a bogeyman that doesn’t really exist. DM